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nice stuff doog!
assuming a best case scenario and Proteus is in high demand, what do yall see as ddi's options, other than trying to make as many as possible? might their next LOI target be a company capaple of mass fabrication? or could they sort of "franchise" or license the patent to receive large fees if the big boys can't wait and want to build them themselves?
excellent find joe!
well, it went from .70 to 1.70 in about 3 weeks in early october, so it's certainly capable. imo, whatever mako speculation that got baked in when we were around 2.00 has been boiled out in this recent downdraft. i'm expecting some sort of upward pop when mako is sealed, and then i'm expecting other news to sustain it and carry it higher. it wouldn't surprise me to see another LOI fairly quickly after mako, with other big news sprinkled in either before or after. fwiw, i think the chart is reflecting the MMs thinking the same thing. can somebody please give me an update on the short average? i think the MMs are playing this cautiously so as not to get caught with their shorts in the breeze.
all the analysts are saying today's rally was due mainly to the Fed hinting at a cut, and lower oil prices. call me crazy, but fundamentally speaking, i think falling oil is the better news for the broad economy. i think the odds of a recession next year are inversely proportional to oil prices. and oil is so high that it could fall a great deal and still not hurt DPDW. i certainly don't believe that falling oil had any impact on DPDW today. oil fell below 92 today and RIG was up .63.
ty jds, but you're too modest. you are a swell dd guy yourself.
like I was saying the other day, this sector can be green even when oil is weak. IMO oil can stand to be alot weaker and we'll still be fine.
yw! and here you go:
http://www.petrostrategies.org/Graphs/Rig_Count_Forecast.htm
from pipeline and gas journal, another cool resource:
http://www.pipelineandgasjournal.com/PGJ/pgj_archive/Oct07/gulf.pdf
Drilling Activity Hits New High in Ultra-Deep Gulf of Mexico
NEW ORLEANS – A record number of drilling rigs are currently working in ultra-deepwater in
the Gulf of Mexico. “For the first time, 15 rigs are drilling for oil and gas in 5,000 feet of water
or greater in the Gulf,” MMS Director Randall Luthi announced today. “The continued increase
in drilling activity is a show of confidence in the resource potential of the Gulf’s ultra-deepwater
frontier.”
While drilling activity in deepwater remains strong, advances have also been made in the
production area. In July 2007, gas production started on Independence Hub, a semi-submersible
platform located in 8,000 feet of water and operated by Anadarko. The deepest production
platform ever installed and also the world’s largest offshore natural gas processing facility,
Independence Hub project will produce natural gas from 15 subsea wells when fully operational.
Before Independence Hub’s start-up, the production facility in the deepest water depth was the
Na KiKa floating production system located in 6,340 feet of water, operated by Shell and BP.
Currently, 70 percent of the Gulf’s oil production comes from leases in water depths greater than
1,000 feet while 40 percent of the natural gas production in the Gulf comes from leases in those
same water depths. As of April 2007, the Gulf’s daily production was estimated at 1.3 million
barrels of oil per day and 7.7 billion cubic feet of gas per day.
As the industry continues its exploration in deeper waters, the availability of technology capable
of operating in deeper water depths and more extreme conditions becomes an important issue.
Several new drilling rigs are being built for use in the deepwater Gulf. These rigs under
construction range from drill ships to semi-submersibles and will be capable of operating in
water depths up to 12,000 feet. Some of these new rigs will be ready as early as summer 2008
and others are expected to be operational by the second half of 2009.
(MORE)
U.S. Department of the Interior
Minerals Management Service
Office of Public Affairs
- 2 -
“The offshore oil and gas industry is facing frontier-like conditions and developing advanced
technology to explore the ultra-deep Gulf waters in order to secure the nation’s energy
production,” noted Luthi.
http://www.gomr.mms.gov/homepg/whatsnew/newsreal/2007/070814.pdf
Fugro newbuild commences deepwater survey
Filed from Houston
11/27/2007 5:36:47 PM GMT
USA/GULF OF MEXICO: Fugro GeoServices Inc.'s newbuild 52-meter (170-ft) survey vessel Fugro Enterprise is mobilizing for the first of three deepwater surveys in the Gulf of Mexico. The vessel meets both American Bureau of Shipping and Safety of Life at Sea compliance requirements for international vessels over 500 tons (454 tonnes).
The vessel carries a suite of high-resolution geophysical survey equipment including Echo Surveyor II, a Hugin 3000 autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV), as the primary system. The AUV is equipped with multibeam echosounder, side scan sonar and sub-bottom profiler sensors capable of working up to 60 hours continuously in water depths to around 3,000 meters (9,840 ft).
Survey data can be processed onboard and can be available from the vessel in near real-time via broadband connection to Fugro's and/or clients' offices.
http://www.energycurrent.com/public/rss/offshore.rss
I for one would like to see oil prices retreat a good deal. IMO, there is plenty of room for that. As long as oil stays above $50-$60, exploration will continue, and I don't think oil will even approach those prices again. High oil prices are great for us, but in the long run are a bad thing and will increase odds for a recession--which will hurt everyone, even though we have a great hedge here. I don't want it just as a hedge.
i've never seen one HERE.
dude, the LOI has been out since July. are we supposed to ignore it, or can we think about how it's going to affect us "if it happens." would you really be here if you didn't think it was going to happen? they executed on their last LOI, so they are batting 1.000. if they were batting .500 i might understand you're refusal to consider the addition. do you only buy shares after an LOI is executed?
dff, i'm not trying to be antagonistic, but i must define pumping differently than that. i know you weren't going so far as accusing, as you used carefully placed question marks. but how can it be pumping when he's telling you how he's getting there? if you disagree, that's fine. what is your take on future growth? what numbers would you use? i'm all ears, seriously. i don't mind more conservative estimates.
one--i tend to agree. two--when do they announce 4Q again?! i know 3Q was just announced, so i guess it will be in about 3 months. but 4Q is just about done. regarding what we're here for--there can only be so much time before those kinds of numbers start to be reflected in the pps. that's why i disagree with those who say the pps was getting ahead of itself. imo, it was not. i understand though about building bases, etc., but i think the recent sellers will rue the day and reap the whirlwind!
that's what i'm talkin about;))
and btw, there's no reason to think we'd be "giving" away anything if that were to happen;) and again, i think mgmt will hold out and grow this thing as big as they can before any possible buyout. just stands to reason, imo.
which is exactly why they make a very appealing target, imo;) face it, it's a double edged sword. when you're that good, you are a natural target. same reason we are going after mako.
Regarding the cameras . . . maybe the real reason they changed the password is because they are working on another top secret product like Proteus. . .
How about a drill ship? LOL. Actually, the reverse is more likely -- one of the bigger boys seeking to acquire DPDW with the view that they would then become the prime mover in the deepwater arena. Can't you just imagine SLB or RIG eyeing this company to complete their package into a "one-stop shop?" I tend to agree with the CW on this board though, and think that DPDW will hold out for awhile before being bought out. Of course, there is only so much you can do to hold out if one of the big boys decides to buy majority interest. That ought to raise the PPS though.
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thanks. huge spread???
what's the latest? somebody give me some play by play!
Hi guys! Happy Thanksgiving! We all have alot to be thankful for. Had a good holiday, got away for a bit, now I'm back, read all the stuff the board's been thru, glad I missed it, yada yada yada. Please keep me posted today on what yall are seeing on your L2's!!! The more the better!!! Thanks Brikk, AJ, Chev, Rocket, Benk, JDS, TS, TH, Doog and everyone else I haven't mentioned. I'm thankful for all of you!!!
Lol. Great Stuff. Your comment about Weatherford was about what I said last week when it dipped. Can't wait to hear more. Thank you TS.
From the 11/19/07 GOM newsletter (ODS-Petrodata):
Study finds Big Five limiting spending
A study conducted by the Baker Institute at Rice University in Houston has found that the "Big Five" international oil companies (IOCs)(Exxon-Mobil, Royal Dutch Shell, BP, Chevron and Conoco-Phillips) are spending less money on oil exploration in real terms despite a four-fold increase in operating cash flow since the early 1990s.
Instead, the study found that the Big Five used 56% of their increasing cash flow on share repurchases and dividends, which were good for investors in the short-term but put at risk the companies' long term oil reserves.
The study also found that second-tier oil companies are spending more on exploration, positioning themselves to be in better shape when it comes to future oil reserves. The analysis is based on investment expenditures by the IOCs, the next 20 largest U.S.-based oil firms and national oil companies (NOCs). Data was taken from U.S. Securities and Exhange Commission filings going back to 1995 and, for NOCs, news reports and other public data.
"The handwriting is on the wall. The oil majors are not replacing reserves," said Amy Myers Jaffe, co-author of the report and the Wallace S. Wilson fellow for Energy Studies at the Baker Institute. "It's as if they are slowly liquidating their long-term asset base. They may see a declining rate of production over time, and eventually that is bad news for both their shareholders and consumers."
. . . Exploration spending by the Big Five has been flat or lower in the aftermath of OPEC's reinvigorated effort to constrain market supply in 1998. Given the up tick in costs of materials, personnel and equipment such as drilling rigs, the Big Five have cut spending levels in real terms over the past 10 years.
The next 20 largest privately traded U.S. oil firms have not followed a similar pattern. Instead, they have steadily increased exploration spending since 1998 and their spending now equals that of the Big Five. The differing pattern comes despite the fact that the Big Five have access to operating cash flow that is three times the size of the next 20 largely traded American oil firms. "This trend indicates that these 20 next-largest privately traded firms will control an increasing portion of non-OPEC oil production in the coming years," the study reported.
I confirmed that Mako does in fact do "reserved equipment" (or "hurricane") contracts. One such contract with a major oil company recently expired that was for $60k, and is being renewed (and I would not be surprised if the renewal price was higher in this current market). That's on one piece of equipment, and that's money made while it's not being used.
Brikk, let me further hedge by saying that such contracts may very well be a generator-only business situation. After any disaster, electrical power generation is in high demand. Mako seems pretty specialized to provide offshore construction/diving rental stuff. So given that, I'll retract my earlier statment about being surprised if they didn't. But I will say this: since both Mako and DPDW are in high demand during hurricane times, they could certainly look at offering that service. That makes me sound presumptuous, and that's not my intent, and this is their field, not mine. Heck, they probably already have done so. Again, if they don't do it, they simply don't need to.
I would be surprised if Mako did not offer off-season contracts to guarantee in-season availability of certain equipment. If they don't, they simply may not need to offer it. After all, Mako may be more specialized than your ordinary store. It's probably also available up north for snowstorms, etc. I know for a fact it's available down here for hurricanes, but I'll check at Mako.
Brikk, another phenomenon in the rental business down here on the GOM is the existence of hurricane season contracts. Take, for instance, industrial strength generators. Try renting one once a hurricane has been modeled to hit your neck of the woods. All gone. Ergo, the hurricane rental contract. For a price paid in the offseason, your company can guarantee itself the availability of that generator (or LARS???) during hurricane season. So, in reality, the rental company still generates income on the equipment in the offseason and in season even when its not in use. BTW, those contracts aren't as cheap as you might think. Apparently, being without necessary equipment is not a price worth paying.
Trueheart, I don't read The Shadow's post as a call to "bet" on hurricanes. I think it is simply a piece of news that is more bullish toward the stock--certainly more bullish than a forecast that would call for less hurricanes. We all know that DPDW is, among other things, a hurricane stock. It's just another piece of unbiased news that happens to be favorable to the stock.
I LOVE, LOVE, LOVE the fact that DPDW was not yet aware of DR's reiteration!!! They have more important things to do, like real business!!!! They don't pump. They don't fluff. They think up revolutionary offshore products and applications and work their asses off.
Thanks TS--mark-worthy! Above and beyond DD. Just awesome work.
is the macd curling upward yet?
are we gonna make 1.50?
On behalf of all of us who don't have L2, what's the latest pps?