Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
There is also this one . Tokyo's Nikkei fell more than 400 points and below 10,000 on worries pressure on the yen to impact exporters.
Trying to justify, nothing more.
Anyway ,later
A follow up , wasn't happy with that last statement. Want to be clear. I'm not negative on this stock, just need more pieces to the puzzle. Also not a good cheerleader perhaps but will also defend this one against any bashers as well as the next person. Just looking for what's real.
" Is any of this based on formal charting, no. It is based on a gut feeling based on past history. I guess in a week we will see if I am right on the short side of it anyway"
Doesn't need to be, charting isn't magic. It's just a way of measuring the gut feeling of all investors.
Charting doesn't control investors actions but rather investors ,by their actions or gut feeling if you will control the charts. That’s what makes it move.
DesertDweller , no I was quoting Tom C as he worded it too Bill and Howard, They are the lawyers.
A quick correction if I may, I'm not a day trader. Market is open roughly 250 days a year , trade about 50 of those, but when I do it's usually heavy. Not a big deal either way but I can't find enough good plays to trade everyday, or for that matter week or sometimes month. If I was forced to trade everyday I would lose.
Ya, I know. IDCC claims the triggers been pulled and Nokia claims that their obligation under the current agreement is not defined by the agreement with Ericy. And so it goes.
I know this. I certainly don't know anything for fact without seeing what that licensing agreement states,I don't know what the Judge is going to say and I don't know what the arb board is going to say, and I don't think anybody else on this board knows either.
It's not meant to be negative what it means is exactly that, I just don't know.
All in all not too bad. Was hoping for a little more discussion on IFX and likely timetables like last qt. They rotate well. Still waiting for them to get back to Siemens and the TS flavor. See we made it over 60 million is a total share. Roughly 14 percent increase year over year. From their talk seems there is a chance for a couple of small player licensing on, based on the way the worded it. { Like the way the analyst broke that down and then got hit with yea the names are known LOL }
That’s the best coaching they have had so far. Far better than last year. They're learning.
Bottom line many companies are loading up the words right now, everybody want the limelight and in the end that 6 cents is what the street will have time to see. Nokia is still the big event and I'll be all ears come the 24th.
All IMO.
DesertDweller,
Getting back to you on an earlier post.
RE : "If it drops due to a negative ruling it will definitely be a buying opportunity because as Merritt stated today, the outcome of the court filing will have NO IMPACT on the arbitration decision"
And I said "I'll have to study up this weekend, make sure I'm seeing this in the right light"
I did, the set up for the stage was-
Q. Based on the fact that you and Howard are lawyers, maybe you guys can give us some insight into this. Would it have any material impact on the arbitration if Judge Lynde would rule that those documents remain sealed?
A. I will tell you in my view there is nothing there that affects my view of our case
Q. If a ruling comes out one way or the other, if that could potentially mean something to the arbitration case, hence your stock price?
A. As I say, it does not change my view of the case.
What did you expect a lawyer to say, no, we would be in big trouble, gee I hope they don't find anything. You didn't really expect him to answer that question any other way than he did
"nothing there that affects my view of our case "
That's pretty thin and a long way from NO IMPACT.
That’s like walking up to the quarterback and asking is your team going to win today.
I think there certainly is potential for a great deal of impact, his acceptable and ALL points considered, bias view noted.
Be careful out there, that's real money you're playing with.
OT Can't do private mess. Best I can do at this time.
Quality of chart is poor, sorry.
http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=16605&u=gejim&a=lightcharts&id=171
One other part that is interesting, at least to me, is 144 of the 157 with activity. A lot of movement going on. A lot of trading from that corner of the field.
Speculation on my part but some of those institutional owners may have got burnt pretty bad with the stock buys in the 22 to 25 range and may have the once bitten twice shy thoughts about this one. More than a few I would think will have some explaining to do. Still as you can see new opening positions are recorded, nice to see that from several different angles considering the time frame involved.
I would not be surprised to see 70 percent institutional by 2005. Not saying as a fact it will happen but I wouldn't be surprised. I know some here would love to see high ownership in this regard but it's a mixed bag to me. They are also the reason for the big drops. One goes negative and the others go to protect mode and lighten up. Reminds me of a cattle herd when they get moving like that. The one if front does the thinking for many. Anyway just an opinion
Thank you Blue, aware of the meaning of the 99 agreement and the difference of convenience and infringement licenses. Need to know Nokia game plan, what the contract says, if Ericy indeed triggers the rate and how IDCC is playing it. Oh and if everything goes clean in the arb what amount will we really get and will it be lump sum or extended payments.
Management has said many things over the last 4 years, most has been forgotten. And they should have been. At this point I'll go with the results vs the words.
In a years time we SHOULD know the answers to most of these questions. I HOPE.
But in fairness to the last CC and what he said, meant, believes, well I need to study in greater detail first. A quick glance is not enough.
Thanks again
That’s an interesting statement.
"If it drops due to a negative ruling it will definitely be a buying opportunity because as Merritt stated today, the outcome of the court filing will have NO IMPACT on the arbitration decision"
I'll have to study up this weekend, make sure I'm seeing this in the right light.
My first thought is that doesn't make sense. My second is the court filing won't but what they find if in Nokia favor that is, could. My last thought was that’s about 2 weeks before they make they're normal insider selling run
But again some study time is ahead.
PFE just did a nice break out from there wedge. SFCC fits in there too. The market is starting to move, kinda fun.
Bull,
Not that good, but worth the trade. Think the high was somewhere around 19.90, and I waited too long on that. Fooled around too long. Seems there was a lot of selling after the push, the following couple of hours anyway. A few hundred thousands over 19.50 up and down I betcha. Anyway no matter. I took what could, you guys get the good stuff. You earned it.
No I agree you're not worried about it. I wouldn't be worried either.
Good luck
Lightly stay on the sidelines till after the 24th. I risk paying the bigger price to have that result in hand.
Later
Desert Dweller.
First congrats to you and all longs that held the line.
No so much going south as sideways. Saw the push from the big boys side on level 3 and when they turned it into selling I simply got out without taking the risk. The indicators were also starting to get to the high side. Knew I wouldn't be able to follow this one this week so called them in and walked away. No regrets. It was a good run for me, a little under 21 percent but I can see it's about a buck higher now. Would have been closer to 28 percent or somewhere in there. Oh well better luck next time.
Bottom line, good for you guy, you were due.
PS Deer hunting this year is something else. You can take up to 5 in the managed areas but there are so many that by the 2 ND day you have filled out anyway and the general theme then is to drink mass qualities of nectar of the grain in small city bars and shoot 8 ball .
Rambling on, the only reason I stop by was to see if Data might have done another type up. All I know so far is they made 6 cents. Have to study up this weekend.
Again Congrats
Gone for awhile
Well truth be known I got out yesterday. Going to sit on the sidelines for a while.
Good luck to you
Jimlur,
It's a hard one to figure out between news events. I agree were way over due on news from the JPO. I'm surprised it has gone this long. I agree a favorable result would be just what IDCC needs right now. Not sure if that’s what were seeing in the trading however. I do think the 3rd qt report is having a impact to some degree. I don't see a abnormal amount of buying from the institutional side in the last few days. And I also believe some of this is sector driven
There are a few things that can be seen in the charts. We had an over sold position on Aug 8. A gap up from the over sold a few days later was filled during the next oversold during the Oct 1 time frame and did provide support. Higher low. The echo gap of late Sept was filled in mid Oct. Near the end of Oct we have the end of the wedge with a doji and low vol. Note my point here is you can always get a buyer to buy lower but you can't get a seller to sell lower. They only go so far. In the downtrends the sellers dictate the price level. From there the break out. About time I get to my point. Using rough numbers here. Early Aug the stock stopped at 14 and bounced. End of Sept price fell to 15 and bounced. Late Oct price fell to 16. Wedge ends with sellers not willing to sell below 16 Breakout over the 18.5 res level to just under the 200-day moving avg of 19.09. In a word strength. Enough to break or counter the news of the Fed arb. Is there news afoot, I do not know but the start of this rally, trend, was not news based but more of a breakout from the consolidation period and IMO, with the help to some degree of the closeness of the 3rd qt release and the sector in general.
A footnote regarding vol. This is not a big issue to me as I'm sure it's being picked up by many radar screens, alerts followers, stock scans and the like. 900k isn't that far out of the norm considering.
All that being said, I hope there is news.
Much to do tonight, took a quick glance on the 1 to 10 min scales. Trend is holding fine and in line from the break out of the wedge, but have to take a harder look this weekend. Looks like a lot of people were parked with buy stops right over the res. mark. But again just a quick glance. Anyway looks like this one is safe for tonight, now time to figure out the rest starting with sfcc.
Good day for the wireless stocks.
Were due.eom
I forgot who on this board runs the 3 day, but I'm going to join you here. Going with the 30 min scale, see how close I can get.
lastchoice,
That a pretty good guess. 18.58 on the daily 18.70 on the weekly. Momentum still building. Nice break out of the wedge. RSI on the daily looks good, so does the MACD. On the weekly RSI almost at the 50, first time in 2 1/2 mo. MACD about ready to cross over. Like the alignment short term.
From the tech side every thing looks as it should coming out of the wedge. Far better positioned than the last quick run to 18's.
Bull, Solid points.
My main point was why, why wasn't both of these issues tied up tight enough with the contracts. Yes right from the beginning. Yes Nokia is trying the courts in the hopes of stopping /stalling arbitration. Who knows it may work.
But again, contracts are excepted everyday with no need for arbitration. Why do we have the Nokia arb,FED arb and for that matter Nec was in arb. Not very clean and clear for my liking with regards to the legal matters.
Not mirror images to be sure, but the same side of the fence in regards to contracts. Nothing clean in either one. Should have been. Or from another direction, how many have been clean.
RE : IDCC seems to want it one way in the NOK dispute, and the other in the Insurance dispute.
It would seem so,but we don't have enough information on either. You only can get so much from a 8K. We can assume IDCC is correct on both issues, but we don't know that. It sure would be nice if we had a clear clean contracts with no issues, and again that dates back awhile. Heck the first 6 of Ron's questions highlights that.
What we have a bunch of speculation and very little fact regarding these contracts or direction, and as a side note in general the company didn't even give guidance this year, come on ! Some people have spent 5 years or more here just trying to figure out these contracts. And I don't know if anybody has it right. Seems there are over 1000 different takes. At best sorted.
As investors we certainly have far less than what we should. But arbitration's, now those we got covered.
Anyway just IMO
Later
Good questions, would love to have the answers known. And who knows they may pick a few off and answer.
My frustration and one of the major reasons I trade this vs hold is the lack of information the company has given in the past. You can't gain any footing for the future with this one. Way too many unknowns that shouldn't be. For a public company it is more than ridiculous, and no reason can cover the bases on why they continue with the black out of answers concerning those questions and several others.
I'll tell you this, trust in, is not a theme I'm willing to give concerning this company or it's management
But I will trade it
Actually I think Nokia is the one who wants arbitration, vs their choices that is, they were the ones who filed for it.
Sounds like Federal does too with they're own filing. Not a big surprise that nobody wants to hand over 10's of millions of dollars.
RE: ..."stay away from stocks with unpredictable behaviour
IDCC already stated they disagreed with the insurance company so something like was to be expected. Does take something away from the Ericy result, considering Nokia didn't fall in line.
But what do I know, I'm still waiting for the watershed event.
Day also ended in a doji
And so it goes.
jaykayjones
It more that just the numbers. It's what they represent by vol. What investors are doing and in what vol they are doing it in. In the case of candle sticks for example, many different signs, doji, dark cloud, hanging man, so on, but there value is this based on the vol. Light vol has little value. One would need to switch to weekly for any type of forward conformation.
You mentioned money flow. What your looking for is continuance. Example weekly scale 40 day money flow setting. 25 million shares sold in a 2 week period. Stock drop roughly from 25 to 15. Bottomed and now coming up. Sell off followed by a leveling off followed by light accumulation . Didn't stay long below the 200 day and couldn't stay above the 50 day on the weekly scale. This has lasted for 3 mo now. The key is which direction is the money flow going. { be careful with this one, the big boys like to keep the price up as they pull the shares out} this can be seen with money flow on the short scales.
I can never walk away from RSI. If you learn nothing else, learn that one IMO
Jimlur like to say vol will lead the way, he's right. It's all about what the investors are doing with the money.
Jai, they are good right now. Break up at the end of the wedge. Crossed over the 50 on rsi and broke positive on the macd. Still would like to see more vol. Anyway the tech markers currently tell you to hold.
One of the better books. Murphy leans more to the long end of the tech side. Perfect if you're not a day trader.
I have been known to trade in and out, adding to core holdings. Currently starting all over again but with a short trigger.
I think tech can be just as important as fundamental. You need both to have the proper awareness of your investment IMO.
"Your implied assertions that your charts predicted the 7/22/03 sell-off is, and will always be, complete bunk"
Never said it did. Nothing could have predicted 7/22 unless there was leakage. Let's take a look right before 7/22. Let’s go , how about May 1 to July 21. See if there is anything leading up to it.
http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=16197&u=gejim&a=lightcharts&id=171
The free fall would have knocked it down regardless if Nokia released or not. Nokia was extra and caused a major drop. In this regard you are right. Charts served no added warning .However the stock already dropped close to 10 percent during the few days before {note not related to any leakage from Nokia} this added bad event in a already falling stock price caused an increased oversell which BTW can be factored in the charts.
In the chart I marked the sell and buy signals that have been around for 100 years.Simple to follow and one of the first most master. Question for you, how do you think us foolish chartists get the price to follow out signals? I used just 1 indicator in the charts posted, there are many many others that confirmed direction, I use 12 to 20 depending,, but again the eyes need to be open.
Again you were right, the charts did not predict 7/22. But it doesn't mean the charts have no value, I will continue to use them to my advantage, and that’s exactly what they give me.
"that is why we are all here including yourself"
I take the 50 but I'm here to make money, thats why I trade. And this stock is a great trader. If Nokia comes with the money or not,it's still a good trading play.
I'll leave it there.
jaykayjones
The key in your statement is low vol. Dark cloud to be sure but the following day of even lower vol and little movement shows lack of interest on either side. Indicators show bottomed at the 50 day. Rsi is still above 50 {bullish} as is the break of the MACD to the positive, just above but also increasing. Bottom line she is floating with the market. The key than would be what is the market doing. And that can be seen by anybody.
TFWG,
Wow, here we go again. A short response
First that was a long term chart, 6 years , not the type used for short term predictions, regarding news , pick your event, why the Nec deal only drove it so far , why ericy , or sharp or for that matter the original Nokia event only moved it a certain amount, there all in that 6 year chart, aren't they, for that matter the margin call of late 2000 and 9/11 as well, but no matter I see your too clever to let the facts get in your way.
RE: . You as a chartist knew nothing. You sat and watched like the rest of us
I did a minor sell off at 24 and a wholesale sell off of my core at 27, remember. Certainly appears that I knew something. And if you held which it sounds like you did, it then appears you’re the one that knew nothing, doesn't it?
RE: Your posts are nothing but noise
For you apparently they are, for others it appears there is some value.
RE: But they have nothing to do with current events
They have everything to do with current events, that's what it's all about, trends , over lapping events, and effects over sold ,over bought, vol., money flow, W HAT THE INVESTORS ARE DOING ABOUT THE STOCK!
RE: Show me. I am waiting
YOU ,will be waiting a long time I'm afraid.
I'm pretty good with the charts, a lot better than what you give me credit for, but even I can't show a blind man what the color red looks like, keep your eyes closed my friend, for me it's better that way
Long term chart for all to use. 6 year. Why 6, other than the short lived run up in 95, not much to see.
http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=16139&u=gejim&a=lightcharts&id=171
A few things to note. The bubble as you can see did have a large effect, also the Nokia payment release expectation. Roughly 11-mo total of the 6 years it was out of trend with the bubble accounts for 9 of it.
Many things to see, i.e. what happens when trend lines and res/support lines touch. Not magic, more to the point it's what the big boys are doing more than anything else. Doesn't much matter if we don't believe charting works, they do and they have a lot more money to play with.
We could talk about consolidation periods, failed holds at support, bounces, twin top stops at the Fib 50 percent, and so on. We could discuss the value of the company post Nokia and what price that may cause, along with, depending what price level someone uses, who would buy it at that level, and how short they would hold it if they did, but no matter. If you bought pre bubble and didn't sell in the bubble your still up in the money. Forget the bubble, if a person would have bought at any of the black arrow supports and sold at the next res point you would had a double each time. Not bad for a long term play. For those that trade often or run hyper charts, your most likely happy with the 20 to 30 bagger. If your over that ,we need to talk. LOL. It's a great stock to trade and again not too shabby for going long as well.
You can see if long, the only time you would be out of the money was if you bought between Dec 99 and April 2000 or in the recent 2 mo period this summer. A total of 6 mo out of 6 years isn't bad considering.
All this is about to change, IMO, we have new trend lines forming, not shown and as yet not confirmed, speculation on my part at this point to be sure and the reason I'm not posting them ,especially without confirmation, nevertheless something to be tracked, and I am, have 10 different charts set aside following this one. Who knows, I may even get it right.
IDCC vs Qcom / Ratio
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=QCOM:IDCC,uu[h,a]wallyyay[dd][pg10][vc60]&pref=G
The difference is in the beta.
Anyway, gone for awhile
FWIW Break out to up side. Need more vol, but again it is increasing. No res.that's worth mentioning till the 18.70's
Again would like to see more vol. that’s where I would put my attention at.
Anyway, I'll take another look this weekend.
You mentioned some good points.
Clearly a head and shoulder pattern on the weekly. Has been in play for some time now.
If I may, and only concerning forward points to look at, again for a slow night.
Both D+ and D- heading down. IMO important to set the stage.
Rsi still above 30 but follow the hump at the last line break. And factoring the vol direction which you have the reason for the momentum down has run it's course.
IMO long term tread line no longer factored because of the recent change in valuation, doesn't mean I'm right but I have disregarded on my own charts. Started new factors going forward from March of this year.
Decreasing divergence, perhaps easier to see using the histogram. Again ties to both the vol and the ADX, several others.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=IDCC,uu[h,a]waclyyay[pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!Lah12,26,9]&....
STO braced on the 20 which ties to my overall thoughts concerning ADX. Ran a post last week explaining the value of the under 20 over 80 using the STO indicator. Normally run the slow of full when using weekly.
Anyway just a opinion or two, nothing more, good chart.
Nice to see another opinion.
ADD on , perhaps watching the Wm%R for the break follow with the CCI for the confirm all with the others. Just a thought.
Ot Bulldozer, good add!
"I will add, Congrats to ALL true baseball fans everywhere, from age 4 to 94, little league to the majors, boy's hardball, men's softball and girl's fastpitch. True hustle, teamwork, hard work and dedication aren't old fashioned... they are in fact what it takes! Big salaries just don't guarantee anything"
You polished it up nicely.
As good as it is for FL, I think the Redsox/Cubs would have been over the top. Especially if seven games were involved. Probably more than the baseball gods would allow this time around. It was a nice teaser to see them both in the playoffs.
OT, "never allowed a chance to bid" that would be incorrect, several were given the chance to bid, however the contract was already awarded before the bidding was even done and companies bidding were never told it was already awarded during their bidding process.
One might what to look at the energy sector overall regarding some questionable policy and process as well.
And so it goes.
Congrats to any baseball fans from FL.
OT it appears to be the hedge fund that's the biggest reason. been dogging them for a year or two. Also the Fund managers are very active. That would include IDCC bull, some larger sells earlier in the week.
Be nice when Nov 1 hits. Still have already started by buying run, be it nibbling, again Bull this would include IDCC.
Later
Perhaps OT Bull but IDCC and UTSI do tie together. Sign of thing to come if IDCC gets corrected with the licensing.
From the opening line from the 8k just filed
UTSTARCOM Q3 2003 FINANCIAL RESULTS: COMPANY
DELIVERS 15 th QUARTER OF RECORD REVENUES AND
EARNINGS
120 Percent Year-Over-Year and 44 Percent Sequential Revenue Growth; Positive Cash Flow From Operations and Improved Balance Sheet Metrics Mark the Best Quarter in the Company’s History
Note the word positive cash flow from ops.
And btw that 0.56 not 56
S&P and for that matter Mcgraw-Hill both rate fair value over 40.
Oh and cash flow has about doubled year over year for a while now 37 in 2000 75 in 2001 130 10 2002, pretty good this year but the year is not over, well you get the idea
Book may 7 but better to look at roi roe, pretty high profit margin as well
In any event this is the IDCC board. Still this will at so point tie directly to IDCC just as NEC or Sharp.
OT Jimlur- and Norfolk Oh my, this news is not good. Good to hear the procedure went well, you get yourself healthy in a hurry my friend.
God bless and God's speed on the recovery.
OT Should have trusted the charts. 120 percent year over year growth, 44 percent increase in sales, 92 percent increase in net income, forward P/E of 16 and the company claims of another 1/2 billion in increase rev for 2004. What happens, the stock drops from the 34's to the 31s.
Should have went with the charts. They were right. It's not what the company is doing, it's what the people who invest are doing. And once again I had to be reminded of that. Oh well , lesson learned, again.
Don't ask me, I still trying to figure out UTSI. Thought it was safe at 34. Regroup time.
A good time to buy { selective across the board } would be at the end of this decline just started. It should be short and quick. Good place to take positions for the rest of the year plus a month. Cycle traders, that would apply to you as well.
All IMO
And hey be careful out there, that's real money your playing with
Anyway, catch up this weekend.
Corp buyer, good questions.
First stock charts should have worked Posted on the public board. Will have to check that out.
RE: In any case,it seems that TA is limited to history
The two indicators I presented are trailing indicators. There are leading ones as well as trailing. However leading are a bit more tricky and shouldn't be used by somebody just starting to learn.
Agreed that fundamentals are based on what could be or perhaps possible future expectations. T/a also has to be blended into what could be. The current share price already has part of that future expectation build in and as a chartist one has to understand and allow for this premium which leads into your question. " how would/do you factor in near term fundamental events that might affect the stock to the upside perhaps sharply". Money flow, vol = interest concerning these possible events and what people are doing about it. BTW this information has been out in the open for some time now and has given everybody a good chance to think it over. The current price is a balance of every ones thoughts. Not as high as it would be with the Nokia payments, not as low as if Nokia wasn't in the play. This would also apply to the Nok motion. Regarding 3 G licenses, very hard to apply T/A to that. Example, which 3G license, from whom, what rate, what vol of sales, what length and so on. No valuation can be presented on that issue until more facts are known.
Minor increase of 1 cent is a not factor in this stock IMO. Most who follow including the big boys are focused on the Nok /sam factor and as you mentioned possible licenses which have not presented themselves in the area of what many have expected.
RE: Is it the general idea of TA that there will always be time to react to a sharp fundamental change? Was there time to react based on TA to the downside news of Nok deciding to arbitrate?
Well yes. There are various ways depending on your investment style. Various alert programs are available along with live and min scale programs. For a long term holder the best would be stop buys.
RE: If the TA says down in the short term, and you don't want to miss a potential sharp upside move, then what is a good strategy in this situation. Again stop buys would be a good tool to use. Also stop sells for the unexpected times.
One should also factor the overall markets, A good possible example maybe this, IDCC gets the Nokia contract during a up market vs a down market, the difference could be as much as 20 dollars.
RE: how do you deal with the current situation at IDCC?
I wait like most others for more information and trade where I can
All In my opinion of course.