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Whackers clearly don't know what they are selling.
$2 puts us at a 1.5x estimated 2021 revenues.
RLX even with it's 45% drop today is still 40x their 2020 revenues.
Have fun!
Patience is all I can say. Have to see where the chips fall. Maybe it's the financing for the patents, maybe it's another large distributor being added on, maybe it's the FDA approval. We are in early so we have to wait out the nonsense, but our future is very bright so don't look too closely at the day to day.
I think people want to see the actual revenue in filings start to trend closer to their 2021 goals/estimates. I for one trust and believe management will come close/exceed their estimates, but I can see how people looking at last year's Q4 ~10M revenue, and their Q1 2021 of $37M might make that $400-$450M estimate seem out of reach.
That's only on the surface though, if anyone looks into the additional distributors that were added January and after, along with the new product just starting in February, then you would be able to see that KAVL is undervalued right now. Right now is the time to buy, not when everything starts showing up in the financials, because by that time, WE would hope the stock price is aligned.
If this doesn't have a valuation higher than .07, then why are you here? You have the patience of a 5 year old.
Agreed, that's a lot of shares to be giving up this late in the process.
Shares that aren't easy to get back!
I've only been active on a few of my larger holds. Still holding a bunch of KAVL, looking forward to the NASD!!
IALS I picked up in November and never posted. SENY Dec/Jan buys, but again, never posted here.
Glad to be in a few together again! Good luck to us.
Ahh, this is where you're hiding Rolling!
IALS going to be another KAVL? :)
BDCM received their hearing date per the latest update and is now up 300% on the week. It's trading at a market valuation of $10.1M.
BABL is still waiting for their hearing. If it runs similar to BDCM's valuation we should be over .06 when the hearing is announced.
I Googled the company he co-founded and found their website/linkedin.
I like it too, it's all coming together nicely.
He has some experience within convenience stores but it looks like digital advertising. Maybe he can provide us some benefit, or connections.
https://www.linkedin.com/company/abierto-networks/
"Founded in 2005, Abierto is a leading Digital Engagement Solutions provider focused on the Convenience Store and Convenience Foodservice Retail industries. Our Digital Marketing solutions integrate in-store Digital Signage, Digital Menu, Engagement Kiosks, Mobile Coupons and Mobile Engagement technologies to help retailers increase sales by maximizing consumer upsell, cross-sell and revisit opportunities."
Almost ready to hit the NASD running!
Haha there's the independent directors we just spoke about!
It's scientific mumbo-jumbo to me lol, but it's already patented in those countries which is re-assuring, and the fact it's listed on Kaival Labs website is pretty interesting.
https://kaivallabs.com/the-innovators/
We haven't had an update on the patents yet, but interestingly enough on the Kaival Labs website they list out all the patents/app numbers as if they are owned by the company.
Pretty cool to see it's already patented in places like China, India and Europe. When doing a search for the patents they still show Next Gen.
China: http://www.zhuanlichaxun.net/p-8883247.html
India (page 157): http://ipindia.gov.in/writereaddata/Portal/IPOJournal/1_4855_1/Part-3.pdf
Europe: https://worldwide.espacenet.com/patent/search/family/055761749/publication/EP3209653A2?q=15853179.8
US: https://patents.google.com/patent/US9556142B2/en
Well technically every sell is a buy and every buy is a sell. As far as ask smacking vs bid whacking, I can't tell that.
Manually counted up the weekly shares since we've been above .05.
We've churned through 77M shares over $.05 since end of Jan. Only 90M shares in the float.
In my opinion, when we get that news we're looking for, this is going to run very quickly. How many of those 77M shares are flippers, vs how many are buying and holding? I don't know, but even if 50% is from holders, that's a lot of shares being taken out of the float. Especially when you add it to those shares bought lower that aren't being sold.
Keep in mind that was from early Feb, so literally 2 weeks into the new Q.
This quote from recent PR doesn't necessarily give the 300% increase, but they re-affirm the full year which to me is more important then the Q2 number.
From a revenue perspective, February and March have benefited from the Company's new distribution partnerships as well as the roll out of the Bidi® Pouch. As such, the Company expects revenues to increase during the second fiscal quarter ending April 31, 2021. "Given our current visibility, we remain very confident in our full year fiscal 2021 revenue guidance of $400 million to $450 million," Mr. Patel said.
$100M in 10 months, with only roughly 10k stores and only 1 product.
Now we have roughly 50k stores, and 2 products. They are different products too, so it shouldn't cannabalize the other.
Q2 should be big with Q3/Q4 even bigger.
Don't forget, Q1 was Nov-Jan.
I'm sure there was a bit of spill over with the new packaging so orders might have been slow in November but from a recent PR:
It is important to note our 2020 sales of just under $100 million were achieved with a distribution network of 10,000 stores and in less than 10 months of operation. Today's new distribution partner announcements bring our network to over 46,000 store locations. The strength and breadth of these partnerships fuels our confidence in our ability to meet or exceed our 2021 projection of $400-450 million in sales.
https://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/KAVL/news/Kaival-Brands-Expands-Distribution-with-New-Agreements-Store-Count-46000?id=291471
You can get an idea of what DID NOT happen in Q1 and why they are optimistic about Q2 and beyond...
The Bidiâ„¢ Pouch debuts in the market on February 1, 2021.
https://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/KAVL/news/Kaival-Brands-Debuts-Bidi--Pouch-Product?id=287464
The Knoxville, Tennessee-based, 100-year-old Hackney has over 20 distribution centers throughout the Southeast and Midwest supporting approximately 25,000 convenience stores. Hackney's first order of Bidi® Sticks shipped on January 28.
https://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/KAVL/news/Kaival-Brands-Increases-Point-of-Sales-by-25000-Locations?id=288559
The only thing that may hold us up is the $2 close price, there are some notes regarding that but we meet (ii) so I don't think it's an issue:
*** To qualify under the closing price alternative, a company must have: (i) average annual revenues of $6 million for three years, or (ii)
net tangible assets of $5 million, or (iii) net tangible assets of $2 million and a 3 year operating history, in addition to satisfying the other
financial and liquidity requirements listed above
KAVL is just a distributor so gross margins are probably going to stay in this range.
What Bidi is providing KAVL though is the positive cash flow, and net profits to invest in other technology and products, IE the patents, that can be produced under a subsidiary and provide much higher margins to the business.
Per the OTCQB qualification letter, we have enough shareholders for NASD. We also have been above $2.00 for a month. We also have enough MMs on board, so there really isn't anything we're waiting on. Net profits, market value, unrestricted shares held by the public, etc are all checked off.
As far as I can tell, we could see up list notification very shortly.
I just remembered, by the time I'm ready to sell, we'll be on the NASD, which means no trading fees! Woohoo! haha
I agree with that.
We do need some independent directors to make sure that KAVL is doing it's best for the shareholders, and not just enriching the private company.
I wonder if NASD has some rules on that. I found this link below, it's from 2013, I just don't have time to read it right this minute...
https://www.weil.com/~/media/files/pdfs/Chart_of_Board_Requirements_October_2013.pdf
The old adage make up for it in volume rings true here until we get some products under our belt. Will be interesting to see what happens with the patents.
I understand your concerns, but again, we're a year old. We went from $0-$100M in a year, we're moving to NASD with anticipation of a $450M this year, we're waiting for patent news, we're waiting on FDA approvals. We know the company is actively looking for more distributors. We know in late spring we will debut in Europe.
The company is firing on all cylinders. A 1% drop in gross margin could have been due to the pulling of product, or a higher cost for the new packaging. I'm not really concerned with a 1% in gross margin if they are going to increase revenues 4x this year.
They are still profitable, stockholder equity continues to climb, and at this stage in the game, the small details you point out aren't that big of a deal. At the end of the day if they need to take a lower margin to increase distribution and take more market share, we should be welcoming that.
If they told us, hey we need to lower our margin 1% to 2-4x our revenue, it easily makes up for it.
Check out the RLX prospectus:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1828365/000104746920005751/a2242721zf-1.htm
Share based compensation the 9months before they IPOd was $40M, compared to $7.7M the year before and $6.8M before that.
Seems to me KAVL is making sure everyone has shares for the future growth of the company on the Nasdaq hence the higher "costs", and that the selling & admin expense should retreat over the coming quarters.
I think you're right in asking the questions but are better suited for a developed company, who's been in business for years.
The story with KAVL is growth and market share. From $0 to $100M in a year. Expecting $450M this year and still turning a net profit. Look at all the companies out there (Non-OTC) not generating a profit, priced at 30, 40 even 50x their revenues because their growth. That is what Wall St wants, and that's what KAVL can bring. Let's go NASD!!
The G&A is most likely related to the share issuances, bonuses, PSUs, etc.
Pay him no mind, he doesn't know what he's doing lol
YOLO! I'll hold my shares and wait it out :)
Company hasn't pumped anything. People have been trying to put the puzzle together based on little hints the company has put into 8Ks. They are going by the book.
Again, start manning up for your decisions.
Time for you to man up for your decisions.
Why dumpening? We know the new deals won't take effect until next Q and company has reaffirmed $400M for the year.
I'm sure he's around. I think we all know how big KAVL could be, and selling here wouldn't be the best idea.
Lot of history here. And most of the O/S is owned by KAVL management, so again, based on all their decisions up to this point, I think we're in great hands. Unrestricted doesn't hurt our EPS either.
This line is important...
"the Company has significantly expanded its operations"
Management has only issued 8M shares since they took over and per the OTCQB certification, insiders own 0 unrestricted shares.
If anyone listened to the podcast last night with Niraj and QuickFillRx, I think it's safe to assume the shares Quick received (since it's a majority of the shares issued since 2020) aren't going to be sold very quickly. They both have high confidence with the FDA approval, and with that comes continued growth.
Keep in mind, there were 68M outstanding shares when KAVL was UCRP. Most of the shares current management has issued have been restricted. What you are most likely seeing is old insiders/holders converting and selling.
As far as I'm concerned, this is most likely to our benefit. Let them all out here so they don't dump 5M shares on us when we're much higher.
KAVL management could have easily done an R/S, wiped everyone out and started from scratch to enrich themselves. They didn't, and we are all reaping the benefits of that decision, even if it means the unrestricted increased.
It does NOT sound bad lol
This wording is what I'm looking at...
"As a result of the acquisition of KRG Logistics, Inc., the Company has significantly expanded its operations"