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2 months literally a 900 pound profit eating gorilla will be off our backs and will leave a tidy little pile of cash on the way out, 90 mil in inventory gonna leave some back you can bet that.
Loving the fact that the majority of stores will be closing after Black Friday and the after Xmas sales could not ask for a better time.
Peace out.
Excellent, well the last holdouts must have finally signed off, so now they can as they say commence to closing all 544 stores which will be completed by December 31st.
Excellent news, I knew from a few PMs I received here and elsewhere people were still thinking about this, worrying. As with everything else the worry was/is senseless.
Peace out
There has been only one insider sale in the past year that I am aware of and that was August 8, 2019 a director sold some shares.
It normal trading, people taking profits, short shorting, etc. Also IMHO there are those here that post as longs but they are longs that dip their toe in the water then take it out never fully commiting.
No big deal, solid $10+ by Xmas.
This is going to give many here a heart attack before long.
That's why I always say never smack the ask never add or start a position unless on hard dip like this, then just take the shares and say thank you.
Peace out.
Me a pumper LOL this guy must be related to pikey from Francesca's or STIXLER from Avita, pumper, that's rich LOL.
I am the antithesis of a pumper anyone who was in Guardion Health Sciences Inc knows that, as soon as I realized they would have to have an offering I walked away from the board and said why, first there and first gone and then it ran and got pumped. If it isn't real I want nothing to do with it.
Nice day yesterday ER a week away, IMHO we get US commercial launch date and should not who is licensing it for the sale of EU/Asia I am leaning hard towards Leo as they already have the sales force in place, have no doubt been brought up to speed on AMZEEQ™ and are ready to hit the aground running.
The manufacturer for AMZEEQ™ and FMX103 was already in place and started manufacture and they don't crank medicines out until it is go time as there are expiration dates to deal with. Just like Avita its launch date wasn't until January but it started selling immediately. I think that will be the case in EU/Asia IMHO
Peace out.
This says it all kid, your just not very bright.
"All the links to Acne products, have glowing reports."
Even when a spotlight is shown on it, you still cannot see the forest for the trees.
Peace out
You missed the entire point (an online magazine????), Aluure is the number 1 Worldwide beauty and health magazine and Allure was the first women's magazine to write about the health risks associated with silicone breast implants, and has reported on other controversial health issues.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allure_(magazine)
Apples and oranges, Allure is like getting on the front page of the NY Times for women's beauty and health. What will you do when they are on tv, still say, so what? This has been trying to be accomplished for 4-5 decades do you get that? Billions and billions and billions of dollars have been spent by multiple companies trying to solve the problem of being able to use Minocyline topical rather than ingested.
And it isn't a case of people that have complications will switch it is that the majority will switch as who the heck wants to ingest a medication when one can apply it topically?
Read this slower, it is not the writer saying these things or the company these are independent respected members of their field, slow your roll then do some DD.
"Minocyline is the main oral antibiotic for treating moderate and severe cystic acne," says Howard Sobel, clinical cosmetic dermatologist at Lenox Hill hospital. "Now we have Amzeeq, which delivers minocycline in a foam form. It’s exciting because it avoids the possible oral complications seen with oral minocyline and has all the same beneficial effects." Specifically, Amzeeq is indicated to treat "inflammatory lesions of non-nodular moderate to severe acne vulgaris," the medical term for common acne.
According to Shari Marchbein, clinical assistant professor of dermatology at NYU, potential side effects of the oral form include drug-induced lupus, liver toxicity, vertigo, and severe rashes. In a clinical trial of over 2,400 patients of nine years and older — one of the largest clinical acne studies to date — no treatment-related serious side effects were recorded. (The most common side effect was headache, which was reported in three percent of subjects testing Amzeeq versus two percent of subjects without.)
Minocycline has never before been available as a topical treatment due to the molecule's instability in typical topical formulations.
If you kids would just quit trying to prove how something is just like something else, rather than finding out what makes something stand above the rest, you will never get anywhere. most of biotech's are crapshoots this one isn't but you will realize that to late because your trying to find a car that is just like it, which you will never find.
But, if you are going to post things that you have no utter clue as to what you are posting then you are doing no one any good, disinformation is just that disinformation.
You need to do some serious DD, I will leave it at that.
Over it now. You have a good day.
Peace out.
Allure Magazine article October 28th, 2019 not some paid for pump article.
Independent, watch this is going shock many, do your DD this isn't a play a trade etc.
The FDA Just Approved the First-Ever Topical Minocycline for Acne
https://www.allure.com/story/acne-amzeeq-topical-minocycline-fda-approval
No one has seen how many new burn centers were added what the revenue's etc in months, which jump by leaps and bounds and you guys are talking the need to raise money, seriously people.
Peace out.
don't even understand why traders come to a place called ""investors"" hub to play the manipulation game, head to the sub penny jungle with that nonsense.
If they put as much into actual DD and investing instead of lying and hustling they just might not have to go back to a regular job when they wash out, because they all do just like horse bettors, professional sports bettors,poker players, etc. gamblers all wash out sooner or later.
Peace out.
Good for you trader kid...…………………………………………..
ThomasCoutts
Oct 28th, 10:17 am
@TheRecoveredDemoholic @TheMotleyTool Added another 12K 2.77-.78 want to add another 58K try and get close to RCEL 300K hold.
Peace out.
Nice...……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..30+ December...……………………………………………………….40+ April mark it.
Peace out.
I could care less actually 2 funds, two of the top performing bio tech funds own almost a third. One actually more than doubling their position in August. So you be you kiddo, wring your hands and fond another sand box to play in, plenty out there, don't fret. No one cares your decisions mean absolutely less than zero to anyone else.
Peace out.
Hits just keep on coming, bout time overhyped bubble stock along with GOOG TSLA FB
Soon, soon they will be valued what they should be, may take a full year to get them down to those levels but, its coming.
Peace out.
I am not a trader I invest in companies, we are not the same people by a long shot. I quit playing the game you do more than 20 years ago, I got tired of chasing cars and never catching one.
Peace out.
It was a chart observation which longs could give two tosses about and it ended political which is whatever.
They try to go near 2.50 let alone 2.20, yeah, just let that try and happen.
Peace out.
Meanwhile back at realityville.
Its a main street real investor stock they already hustle and jive with it and moved on, this isn't that kind of stock. most of those pump/momo BS stocks there isn't any substance, there is no meat there.
Those that tried to play it will come back in June and can then have a share or ten @20+ this will be a nice steady rise, people just bid sitting getting a few here and there letting it trade in its channel for the moment.
Then it will step up one trade for a bit, then another leg trade for a bit, was in ne last year same thing these go up and stay up, and climb and stay climbing, not a traders stock, to much held tight and locked up with high $ GTC orders, weak are all gone.
Peace out.
While famed value investors like Warren Buffett (Trades, Portfolio) and Seth Klarman (Trades, Portfolio) get most of the attention, there are plenty of other portfolio managers that have similar long-term track records. Joseph Edelman, the founder of Perceptive Advisors, is one such investor.
FOMX 15-Year Financial Data
The intrinsic value of FOMX
Peter Lynch Chart of FOMX
Since its inception in 1999, Edelman's portfolio has generated annual returns in excess of 30%. Down years have been rare. You may not have heard of him since he only manages a few billion dollars. Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-A)(BRK-B), for comparison, has a market value of more than $500 billion.
Perceptive Advisors focuses exclusively on the biotech sector, meaning it needs to keep its asset base small. If its portfolio grows too large, it won't be able to invest in many of the smaller companies in the space. While it holds interests in many multibillion-dollar companies, Edelman has dozens of positions that have market caps of under $500 million.
While the limited size of these opportunities likely will never bring Edelman worldwide fame, they're still large enough for most individual investors to follow his best ideas. Here are two of his most intriguing picks, aggregated using Perceptive Advisors' 13-F filings.
Foamix Pharmaceuticals Ltd. (FOMX)
Small-cap biotech stocks are nearly always mispriced, sometimes grossly so. This year, Foamix has multiple milestones that could drive 300% in upside, even using conservative estimates.
The company has two lead drug candidates: FMX101 and FMX103. I suggest you read my full write up for the details, but in total, these drugs could easily generate $300 million in annual sales. Edelman often uses a 3 times peak sales multiple to value potential drugs, though he will occasionally use multiples as high as 6 times sales.
Applying a conservative 3 times sales multiple produces a $900 million potential valuation for Foamix. With a current valuation of just $200 million, the investment case seems very attractive.
That's probably why Perceptive Advisors bought 1,554,400 shares last quarter, bringing its total holding up to 4,661,824 shares, nearly 9% of the company. With an average purchase price of around $5.50, this is a great way to follow Edelman's bet given the stock is currently trading under $4 a share.
This article was from April since then he more than doubled his stake in FOMX as approval drew near to 18.4% speaks volumes
Catch flippers share, never ask slap if your an investor
Moving at lightening speed new AMZEEQ™ website up already.
https://www.amzeeq.com/
Peace out.
Okay will do, it does come out elsewhere later, I am looking for a company PR today explaining this PR and laying out their strategy its only 2 months till sales.
New manufacture agreement made will be manufactured in Switzerland will be sold in Europe and Japan/Korea etc if you start or add do it on the bid, catch flipper/shorters shares your long term you selling for $20+ 9-12 months from now, sit and wait for them they will come to you they always do they cannot help themselves, dogs have to chase cares and trades have to chase pennies its in their nature.
http://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2019/10/23/1934031/0/en/Foamix-Enters-Into-Manufacturing-and-Supply-Agreement-For-AMZEEQ-and-FMX103.html
https://rezamusic.yolasite.com/fomx.php
Peace out.
Indeed, people playing checkers while the game is chess. Short sellers no doubt taking the Israeli 2 day holiday and exploiting it, I have been too, just on the buying their bottom pushes LOL.
But, this isn't a look at it today stock, its an investment, that's why I always tell people wait for them, they will come to you, never chase bid sit, and leave some cash on days they really push, they are doing you a favor, by accident.
Get your starter then look for your dream adds, they will give it you, they always do, their arrogance keeps them from not giving it to you. Use their actions to your advantage, plan for it.
Just kick back and smile, because you already won the game, its early in the first quarter, by the fourth quarter you will Tom Brady and they will be the Cincinnati Bengal's.
Happens every time.
Be a bid sitter and never use a stop loss buying the bottom in a stock, do your DD you know the game is, play it, stop losses are not for investors buying the bottom with a clear path ahead, its for day traders and people who should not be managing their own accounts.
Peace out.
Company filed for new trademark names last week, readying for FMX103 when its approved? I like this this company gets things done before hand, not waiting for the last minute on something.
https://trademarks.justia.com/search?q=ROZMINA
https://trademarks.justia.com/886/56/rozilq-88656674.html
When its ready its really ready.
Peace out.
Yep, but will be rock solid $10 no dipping under ever again, by Xmas ROCK SOLID.
Congrats all.
IMHO US tutes/funds starting to make a difference, looking for 13F's 13G's to start flowing Dec/Jan just an opinion. We always knew it would happen and I believe the pressure is being felt.
Cannot deny as well Japanese interest, maybe not funds but astute players that know M3 and maybe a govt official or two, we know through the CHU-X trading we gave long gotten Hong Kong, Japanese and Korean investors.
Peace out.
A nice DD post by another investor, do not know him, but, I like his style, thorough, to the point and truthful no hype. Worth the read.
https://rezamusic.yolasite.com/fomx.php
Like the trading today shorts jumped n it had, once they realized it was not going under a certain point that hedges and tutes were going to figure this game out, the traders for the most part exited stage left, see a nice steady rise like Avita/ReCell was, similar company, similar strategy moving forward and almost the same exact commercial launch date.
I see another upgrade/reiteration coming, and after the Simhat Torah, celebration/holiday in Israel has passed I expect the company to put something out laying out their strategy going forward and a hard commercial launch date.
Call me crazy but I look for the final two lawsuits to be settled as well its the same company two subsidiaries I believe Taro Pharmaceuticals U.S.A., Inc. and Taro Pharmaceutical Industries, Ltd. I am guessing mind you that the second that was reported to have reached a settlement agreement today was due to not wishing to report 10Q with that hanging out there, so that made 2 of the patent infringement cases settled. One would think that the other two, same parent company would also with to put this behind them prior to their 10Q on November 4th we shall see.
We won't see any details $$ received from the settlements til the govt agency reviews it but guessing from licensing we receive for Leo Pharma per Q of $1 million I would imagine it will be in the millions total with the offending companies also having to cover lawyers fees, so should be a nice bump and a deserved one. I like seeing the company is not afraid to go after those infringing on their patents.
Peace out.
Yeah right HOD at the close 101K shares .493 hedges just covering all day every day as flippers leave to chase other cars, chasing cars they never catch catch them though, just barking and chasing.
Peace out.
Nice day in the neighborhood.
Final DD post on Foamix
I want to first start this post out with an issue that shorts on multiple boards will be attempting to push which has NO basis as the situation has already been sorted, unlike many other smaller pharma companies that succeed in bringing to market one and soon to be two innovative products with very large markets Fomaix as they did everything else, already saw the issue and when they knew approval was at hand sorted it out.
Cash to execute the strategy, it takes quite a bit of money to hire 4 top senior managers in major markets, 51 pharma reps, and establish both trademark and patent protection. Well it is a very good thing all of these things were already accomplished not least of which the $39 million in cash Foamix had but also secured $64 million in additional capital financing investment by Perceptive Advisors (Joseph Edelman) and OrbiMed.
http://www.foamix.com/news-releases/news-release-details/foamix-announces-64-million-capital-financing-investment
These people aren't financers that loand money out to sell shares, that isn't what they do, they nvest in companies for the long term and both are/have been shareholders/investors and haven't sold a share so to think they will now when the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow is ahead in 2020 and beyond is quite laughable.
These guys want to own parts of highly successful pharma companies not loan them money to make a profit on the loan as a bank/financier would. They are in for the long haul, the really long haul.
https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/b19hj4gjrwh1x9/The-41-Man
You don't turn $6 million into $4 billion plus loaning money out to sell sell shares before the ultimate payday is upon you then you selectively pass them out like candy to all the good children in class.
When short sellers come in droves to boards spouting such things it always reminds me of the movie Jack Nicholson gave the following memorable speech.
You don't want the truth because deep down in places you don't talk about at parties, you want me on that wall -- you need me on that wall.
We use words like "honor," "code," "loyalty." We use these words as the backbone of a life spent defending something. You use them as a punch line.
I have neither the time nor the inclination to explain myself to a man who rises and sleeps under the blanket of the very freedom that I provide and then questions the manner in which I provide it.
I would rather that you just said "thank you" and went on your way. Otherwise, I suggest you pick up a weapon and stand the post. Either way, I don't give a DAMN what you think you're entitled to!
I switch it up a little bit
Your not worried for me, trying to save me from myself or the bad dilution boogeyman, you just don't want to admit, you made a mistake, deep down inside in places you don't want to admit exist, you are feeling an angst, a gut wrenching feeling of despair, of miscalculation of disappointment in your choices. You don't want my shares to save me, you don't want me to sell my shares to help myself you need me to sell those shares becasue you need a way out of your predicament to try and not lose too much money, to maybe lose a little to to even make a little so you can feel good again and pat yourself on the back, telling yourself you were right, you made the right call. Well I suggest you suck it up buttercup, lose a little lose a lot, its obvious you NEED those shares, well open up your wallet today is judgement day.
The truth is, there will be no dilution, there is no need for money, there is no real downside in the coming 8 months only upside. Don't chase the stock bid sit them, because these fools will try and try and try again and again and again. Til they realize it is time to move on, until they do, I will bid sit them, take their flipped shares, shorted shares and thank them, because I already won the game, we are just waiting to see what the final score will be. They are trying to save face and money with your money and deserved profits from a risky yet now successful investment, 2020 will be the year no doubt, not a doubt in the world that's why investors like the Biotech whisperer, the Warren Buffet of Biotech's Joeseph Edleman is here and has been along with Orbimed and countless others investing/increasing their position at ever stage of the process, now we just as they get to ride in the shiny car to the finish line.
If you add or start a position, do it on the bid, today, tomorrow next week, investors always buy on the bid. Then place your stocks for sale good til canceled $30-35 they can always be changed if you wish to sell a few @10 or 15 or 20 but until then helps keep them out of the hands of unscrupulous short sellers looking to steal someones wallet.
Now that the unpleasant but much needed touch on shares dilution and short seller and flippers hustle is over I want to get into a few things.
The analysts and their thoughts on the stock/company going forward. These analysts judge/rate stocks in the Biotech sector, it is their job and if anyone has any real insight into what is ahead it is them, not I, not short sellers, not flippers, day traders or hustlers, they do.
Bank of America
Bank of America analyst Jason Gerberry.The analyst reiterated a Buy rating on the stock, citing an attractive valuation and pipeline optionality. Gerberry also maintained an ultra-bullish price target of $11 prior to the approval of (FMX101) AMZEEQ™ and prior to the acceptance by the FDA of the applications of FMX103 which its pdufa date in June 20, 2020.
Gerberry has compiled the following takeaways from the call: 1. NDA review - FOMX is through mid-cycle review with the FDA and remains confident for the anticipated approval of '101 in October. 2. Launch preparation - sales force alignment is underway (hiring offer to be made contingent on FDA approval). FOMX remains on track for early January launch of FMX-101, and plans to have 51 sales rep ready at launch. 3. Pricing - launch price has not been finalized for FMX101, but mgmt. reiterated expectation that reimbursement access with limited restriction (tier 2 to tier 3) is feasible for FMX-101 with a net-to plan pricing range of $200-$400m. 4. FCD105 (acne) - FMX plans to initiate a Phase 2 trial of FCD105, a topical foam formulation that combines 3% minocycline (anti-bacterial) and 0.3% of adapalene (anti-inflammatory), for the treatment of acne in 3Q19. The trial will be a randomized US study of ~400 patients, with topline results expected mid-2020.
Cantor Fitzgerald
Cantor analyst Louise Chen reported on Foamix’s presentation at the firm's healthcare conference in early October, noting: "After listening to FOMX's presentation, we continue to look forward to the potential launches of FOMX's two late-stage products in the 2019/20 timeframe. We expect approval for the company's lead product candidate FMX101 for the treatment of moderate-to-severe acne."
Says her 25 physician survey supports her positive view on the market opportunity for Foamix's FMX10. If approved, FMX101 has the potential to address a significant unmet need in the treatment of moderate-to-severe acne, which remains a difficult condition, Chen tells investors in a research note. She reiterates an Overweight rating on Foamix shares with a $15 price target ahead of the upcoming FDA action date for FMX101 on October 20. The analyst thinks the Street is underestimating the uptake of acne drug. Chen rates FOMX an Overweight with $15 price target before approval of (FMX101) AMZEEQ™ and prior to the acceptance by the FDA of the applications of FMX103 which its pdufa date in June 20, 2020.
Cowen & Co
Ken Cacciatore of Cowen & Co. -- is now saying. In a bull argument to beat all bull arguments, Cacciatore stated that in his opinion, Foamix could be on track to do as much as $600 million in peak annual sales, and Foamix stock could be worth as much as $30 a year from now --as much as 750% more than what it costs today.
Foamix has two products in development, both targeting the dermatology market. Both products are topical minocycline products, with the main difference being that "FMX101" is a formulation targeting acne, while "FMX103" addresses rosacea.Both products are wrapping up Phase III clinical trials with the FDA, and both work essentially the same way, even though they treat different conditions. To wit, a liquid medication is salved into the skin, and it acts to lower the melting point of facial "sebum" (an oily substance that can block pores and permit bacteria to grow within the skin, resulting in acne or rosacea), with the result that the oil melts away, allowing the pores (and any bacteria within them) to be exposed to the air, inhibiting microbial growth.In late 2018 results from the clinical trials, reports Cacciatore, FMX103 was proven to be "safe and effective" for the treatment of "moderate-to-severe papulopustular rosacea." More than that, says the analyst: The results of the study were "impressive," and statistically significant to boot, with "81.6%" of patients in the trial showing improvement in their condition after 52 weeks of treatment.At this point, Cacciatore says he sees "essentially no clinical development risk" attached to either formulation, meaning that once the FDA approves them for sale, Foamix should see no obstacle to marketing the treatments through its sales force of "50+ sales reps focusing on the 6,000 prescribers that cover roughly 75% of the acne prescription market." FMX101 could be approved as early as October 20, 2019, and FMX103 could follow in a few months. Its New Drug Application was filed with the FDA just last week.Nor will financing be an issue once approvals are in hand. "Foamix is well-financed for the initial FMX101 commercialization period," argues the analyst, "having raised $64MM in July ... and ending Q2 with $70MM in cash." At current cash burn rates, that should be enough to keep Foamix afloat for more than a year as sales ramp up -- longer, if the costs of running clinical trials abate, as seems likely.With financing in hand and a likely receptive market in the form of anxious teens and long-suffering rosacea patients seeking a solution to their little-understood disease, Foamix looks well positioned to prosper once the FDA gives it the green light.
Barclays
From June prior to the approval of (FMX101) AMZEEQ™ and prior to the acceptance by the FDA of the applications of FMX103 which its pdufa date in June 20, 2020.
Foamix is a late clinical-stage specialty pharmaceutical company focusing on foam-based medications for the treatment of acne and rosacea. Foamix stands out in this report primarily by virtue of the extremely high hopes Barclays'. Barclays believes that within a year, Foamix stock will be selling for $10 -- a four-bagger in just one year.
As the analyst explains, Foamix is on the cusp of becoming a "commercial stage company" -- i.e. a company with actual revenue from sales, a rarity in small drugs stocks -- thanks to its topical Minocycline product for acne and rosacea. Designated "FMX-101" for acne treatment and "FMX-103" for rosacea, both these foam-based products "combine [the] proven efficacy of minocycline with a more tolerable side effect profile" says Barclays. From $3 million in annual revenue today, the banker predicts Foamix could do as much as $272 million in annual sales by 2025E.
Considering that the entire company has a market cap of barely half that number -- $138 million -- today, Foamix at least seems to have earned its place on Barclays' list.
Foamix has a few upcoming catalysts that could send its shares surging higher:
There is a scheduled PDUFA for FMX-101 on October 20, 2019. This is a key event for Foamix, as FMX-101 is its lead product in acne.
Foamix anticipates filing an NDA in mid-2019 for FMX-103 in moderate-to-severe papulopustular rosacea.
FCD-105 Phase II study initiation in mid-2019: FCD-105 is another pipeline product being evaluated in patients with acne and is a foam-based combination of minocycline and adapalene.
"We value Foamix on a DCF basis, assuming an 11.5% discount rate and a 3% terminal growth. We include risk adjusted pipeline values for both FMX-101 (90% probability of success) and FMX-103 (70% probability of success). We also assume base uptake of FMX-101, reaching 2025 risk-adj. sales of ~$200mm.
Credit Suisse in May 2019
Analyst Vamil Divan sees a high likelihood of regulatory approval for FMX101, applying a 90% probability of success (POS). The analyst rates FOMX stock an Outperform with a $9.00 price target, which implies nearly 250% upside from current levels. With an FDA approval in hand (100% POS), Divan says his price target will be boosted to $11.00. According to the analyst, “an increase in the sample size (1,507 patients in this trial vs. ~500 each in the two prior trials) and improved site selection and training helped drive statistically significant [clinical] results,” which put the company on track to win FDA approval.
H.C Wainright from May 2019
Analyst Ram Selvaraju estimates the probability of regulatory approval at 85%, and assigns a $12.00 price target for the stock. If the price target is reached within 12 months, that would provide a 12-month return of nearly 360%. Selvaraju opined, “We believe that the current valuation situation presents an attractive entry point for value-focused investors, given the fact that Foamix currently trades about 2x book value […] Our risk-adjusted net present value (rNPV) of FMX101 is $400M, which factors in an 85% probability of regulatory approval […] We have employed a sum-of-the-parts valuation approach that yields a total projected firm value of $696M, which translates into a price objective of $12.00
Selvaraju believes investors seem to be discounting both FMX101 and FMX103 from a commercial standpoint, but “this is unwarranted.” Why? “These agents are based on well-known, validated and effective compounds in their respective target indications and have generated statistically significant efficacy data in large, robustlypowered pivotal studies. We also draw investors’ attention to the large size and underserved nature of the target markets—namely, acne and rosacea—and the willingness of patients and physicians alike to try new formulations when they are introduced. Furthermore, we point to the user-friendly and well-tolerated nature of the Foamix formulations, which utilize the company’s proprietary foam-based delivery technology to enhance efficacy while minimizing off-target systemic side effects,” Selvaraju answers.
Overall, this acne drug maker stands as a 'Strong Buy' name among Wall Street analysts. In the last three months, FOMX has won three more bullish recommendations, while the 12-month average price target lands at $17.00, or more than 500% ahead of the current share price. Which were given prior to the approval of (FMX101) AMZEEQ™ and prior to the acceptance by the FDA of the applications of FMX103 which its pdufa date in June 20, 2020.
Many times, more often than not in the months following FDA approval and other material events coming in regards to the pipeline of companies products, such as the pdufa date of June 2020 and the commercial launch of AMZEEQ™ in Jan 2020 analyst will reiterate and even upgrade the sock of a company, shall we see it here? Maybe, but we already have an excellent start.
I was going to go into the market etc, but, I realized the analysts already covered those topics quite well. I would suggest everyone do their due diligence and follow any analyst updates as the reasoning behind their actions will be well stated and really probably will state the case much better than I.
Peace out.
DD on Executives/Directors and what they bring.
Foamix has a wealth of knowledge and experience, I see people many times in stocks/companies say oh that's like this, this will do this because that one did, etc. That is a rather naive way of looking at anything cynical almost, caution is one thing cynicism or the feeling one knows everything is just downright naive.
Lets just start at the top the CEO and a little about him and what he brings to the table and why he might be the one that was chosen.
Including a number things I found said/written about him through other sources that the Fomix website management page.
CEO David Domzalski was the Vice President, of Sales and Marketing, at LEO Pharma, Warner Chilcott and a SVP and General Manager at Azur Pharma, before Azur and Jazz Pharma merged in 2011 forming Jazz Pharmaceuticals PLC. Azur Pharma was a privately-held, profitable specialty pharmaceutical company headquartered in Dublin, Ireland with US operations in Philadelphia.
Mr. Domzalski has extensive experience in building and restructuring commercial organizations, launching successful new products and managing multiple therapeutic drugs throughout their life-cycle. He has a history of specifically building sales forces and marketing strategies, and launching products that will be of direct value as Foamix commercializes AMZEEQ™.
Matt Wiley
Chief Commercial Officer
When the commercialization of AMZEEQ™ was a year out Foamix CEO brought in Mr. Wiley as he had previously worked with Mr. Wiley at Azure and subsequently Leo after their merge where Mr. While after 5 years with Azur went on to stay with the newly formed Jazz Pharmaceuticals for another 6 years before being plucked by the CEO and Foamix to lead the commercialization efforts for AMZEEQ™ and its sister product now in the approval stage FMX103. Prior to Azur he held roles in sales, marketing at Guilford/MGI Pharma, Salix, Cephalon and Rhone-Poulenc Rover.
Since joining Foamix in the lead up to approval for (FMX101) AMZEEQ™ Mr. Wiley created the development and execution of commercial strategies of the company’s product portfolio, including the planned launches of (FMX101) AMZEEQ™ for acute acne and FMX103 for rosacea.
Established sales team 4 major markets for US Launch, hired 4 top senior managers in major markets, 51 pharma reps, he established both trademark and patent protection and helped raise $70m in cash so that upon approval they could hit the ground running. Many companies upon receiving FDA approval have to build a sales force, develop a strategy raise cash etc. ALL this is already done, which is of utmost importance to shareholders especially the CASH issue, no dilution for cash raises, this has already been sorted.
From another investor more familiar with the pharma sales business is this which I add with thanks to him as I never would have even had a clue as to this issue and it already being sorted.
And discussion on Payers which is the hardest part of establishing strong front for sales, they already penetrated the market. According to CEO, they were given high praise from 3 KOL leaders in Dermatology.
In terms of payers, the company’s research revealed that most payers gave FMX101 a mean favor-ability score of 5 out of 7
Definition of Payers
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/what-is-value-in-healthcare-the-payer-definition-300342246.html
Mutya Harsch
General Counsel and Chief Legal Officer
Now I am adding Ms. Harsch to this page as I think she was brought in not only for her legal background in Warner Chilcott another pharma but what also set her apart is that she was Special Counsel, Mergers & Acquisitions, at Cooley LLP. Not that it, but, it does happen that pharma firms like to buy other pharma firms once all the work is done and all the risk, possible failure which happens all to much in the pharma game and why drugs/medications/devices are so expensive when they first get introduced to the market.
The FDA approval process is the highest standard in the world and the costs associated for successes and failures add equally to the costs so pharma specifically will merge/acquire smaller companies with something as innovating and crucial as AMZEEQ™. Many complain about the cost of drugs etc, but, what is the alternative, not having them. Many also say, well the govt could fund the research, to that I say have you ever been to get a drivers license, enough said argument over. the government is a wasteful bloated bureaucracy where no one can be fired and there are 5 people to do one job, where all five are trying to avoid doing the job or getting one of the others to do the job.
But, anyway it is a possibility as with all pharma that a merger could happen, but, that is but one of a dozen things that could, but it is good the head counsel has played in that sandbox before as have the CEO and others at Foamix.
For the rest of the executives and directors, board members one can just say there is a wealth of knowledge and experience in the pharma game from the entire specter of big pharma and it is a well chosen team to execute the strategy ahead with AMZEEQ™ and FOMX103 in 8 months when its approval comes through and the continued trials and approvals ahead with FOMX102/104 1nd 105, which 105 just entered its phase 2 this past year and is expecting results of that trial in June, a very exciting year is ahead indeed with Foamix.
Does it seem odd to anyone else that although Justice and their people were a part of this PR fro Lego and are more than a little involved with the whole Disney Frozen 2 thing and not a peep? CEO CFO, 17.5 million shares, now Justice new Disney movie Lego teen influencers, young girls being driven to Justice right before the holiday shopping season and crickets.
I am being serious, not hype or "wow this is great" which it is, my niece and her sister now grown and every other young girl in my extended family its like all they can talk about the new Frozen 2 movie, which is released literally the week before the holiday shopping season kicks off, just the quiet the nothing ....... crickets.
I mean its even being picked up by other sources, that doesn't seem strange to anyone else? I'm a 53 year old man and I get it, new Frozen 2 movie tween girls, its big thing.
Frozen the prequel was a rather successful movie one of Disney's biggest ever........................................Frozen the film also achieved significant commercial success, earning $1.276 billion in worldwide box office revenue, including $400 million in the United States and Canada and $247 million in Japan. It went on to surpass Toy Story 3 (which was also distributed by Disney) as the highest-grossing animated film at the time as well as the highest grossing musical film before being surpassed by the remake of The Lion King in 2019; it also ranks as the 15th highest-grossing film of all time, the highest-grossing film of 2013
I called a freind of mine who has a daughter 7 1/2 years old adn he put it on speaker and I asked her "are you going to the new Frozen movie in November?" she fired back on the 22nd? I asked how she new the date and she said Alexa told her, all the girls are excited about it. Now, seriously. Strange is all, a driver to the stores and brand building right before the holiday season with what could end up being the biggest Disney animation film and not a word, that is just to unusual. But yet, in the Lego PR Justice and their people were obviously half of the content?
Maybe I am overthinking it, I don't know, but by the by, it will definitely be a oost to holdiay sales and a nice brand builder, kudos.
IMHO the 300 Justice stores hosting this Lego/Justice/Disney Frozen 2 day in November, mobbed absolutely #$%^&*()_ mobbed.
And sales just went way the hell up for the Q because that stuff sells like me'fer and while your in there getting that well, what do you think.
""Beginning this month, LEGO Friends and LEGO Disney building sets will be sold in Justice stores nationwide, including sets based on the upcoming film, Frozen 2.""
https://www.giftsanddec.com/trending-gifts/kids/lego-justice-build-on-existing-partnership/
https://www.goldderby.com/article/2019/oscars-2020-toy-story-4-frozen-best-animated-feature-battle/
I mean they are already putting this darn thing up for the Oscars already, and crickets. Yeah something is unusual here cannot quite put my finger on it yet, but, I am digging and putting feelers out on overdrive.
FOMX and how the year plays out is not that hard to see for many reasons. When I read the Seeking Alpha article recently written about a traders position in FOMX and their reasons for holding, selling off part of their position it left me confused as when reading it I felt the writer was confused with that she/he was, a trader or an investor. For me it was obvious they were a trader with a rather short outlook in what/how they see the market as a whole, maybe this comes from their not being in the market for very long and have a somewhat narrow view due to age or the way they see the market only knowing it for a few years which anyone who has been in it long enough knows it shows a different face as a new generation comes in with its own ideas of how it should /will work, but, as it always does the market will prove what it is and always will be no matter what some make it out to be or perceive it as.
The stock market is/was and has always been an investment/speculative tool for companies old and new to seek someone willing to make a bet on their future idea/plan/ for a new company or one that has a longstanding reputation and is either trying to reinvent itself or fight its way back from poor decisions made by management, which is an all too real occurrence and has been since the markets beginning, in my opinion with mismanagement there should never be even a thought of investment until all the top management is gone and new injected into the business with proven track records.
Now in where my thoughts as an investor as opposed to being a trader who perceives themselves as an investor I see an entirely different outlook and reason for investing in FOMX now for the next 9-12 months, not okay I should bail on almost my entire "play" and hold a little bit to see how things go, that a trader not an investor and with such a strategy one will always find themselves being a trader not an investor and always having to seek out that fresh idea, that fresh play where as an investor has a plan sees it and executes it.
FOMX with the help of short sellers and traders/flippers whatever one wishes to call them those two groups provided and easy almost no risk IMHO price entry and hold time as the map for the next 7 months minimum is laid out so perfectly its almost the perfect biotech investment. It’s an extremely fair price it has catalysts that over the next 8 months until the next pdufa for FMX3 which IMHO is just as much a sure thing as FOMX was. I will lay out how I see the next 8-12 months as the writing is on the wall and for an investor it’s easy to see how to execute it and why it will come to fruition for a numerous reasons (catalyst) that will just fall like dominoes one after another after another, it’s almost too easy.
Starting now we have just gone under literally 8 months till the next pdufa for FMX103 which like FMX101 if one views the clinical trial material etc it’s about as sure a thing as FMX101 was. Next there was just announced Friday night the approval of FMX101 and all that comes with that. There is more likely than not to be reiterations of targets by analysts already covering the stock who gave their price targets and thoughts on FOMX prior to knowing for certain if AMZEEQ™ would be approved and that page has turned it was approved so all the caution with that happening is over and now they can/will re-access their outlook on FOMX as the landscape changed, yes it is how they thought it would be but now it is, and they can now look at an access how the company will be moving forward in regards to that and how all that will play out.
Secondly their assessment's outlooks were given without the application for FMX103 being accepted and so soon and in line with AMZEEQ™ and its approval and all that entails, they thought before now they know and can plot out as I and other investors will do a timeline, of how things will fall into place and happen over the next 8 months. As well now that the landscape has changed and the picture has gotten more clear others might begin coverage when they access the outlook of FOMX in the coming 12 months as that is how analyst view/judge/analyze a stock/companies performance and recent events have totally changed that landscape. So, in the next 32 weeks until the pdufa date for FMX103 those are two catalysts that the company/stock will more than likely have during that time period more so as each known event occurs and the pdufa date for FMX3 approaches. I look at timelines and weeks and possible catalyst when viewing an investment, not whether it is good or not, but, in today's short term thinker atmosphere in the market at least a portion of it it is important, it isn't to 95% of the holders of a stock but to those 5% it matters as they are not investors but traders and to them it’s all about the next catalyst, always chasing never quite getting there. So at the end of this post I will just list the catalyst I am mentioning now and number them as the number/amount of them and the 32 week timeline does add to the positive feeling one can have in this investment, it’s not going anywhere except up form the next 8 months that is a given, will it have the short attacks etc, sure, but that is trader worries, not an "investors" with a 12+ month outlook as what happens today is meaningless tell me about whats happening next week, next month, next year, today is a traders worry and will he get that 2-5% up or downside whichever side he is on that day week etc.
Other catalysts ahead are the filing of further 13G/13F's as old institutional/fund investors add now that the picture has gotten clearer and new funds/institutions starting positions for the very same reason. Many who didn't/don/t like to be in the game when the money is only going in one direction, out. Have a different perspective once the money is going to start flowing in the opposite direction, everyone wants to be there when its "show me the money" time. One might ask how is this a catalyst, simple and ot goes back to the market as it is today it gives traders pause, both on the short and long side, some short traders may feel let me find a spot higher or let me just go find an easier stock with a much easier path to the downside. Short term long traders will see it as a reason to hold/push higher as the outlook to the upside with those type of players adding to or starting positions and stocks do react positively to such filings so yes I do consider them a catalyst and going forward the next 32 weeks with each event, milestone that possibility grows.
The next domino to fall with be the company outlining the production, placement and and execution strategy of sales force for AMZEEQ™ followed by a date for commercial launch a hard date where now it is just a January 2020 launch time horizon. This will be a catalyst as again it will put the company in people’s ears and give investors and the public a hard date timeline for the commercial launch, which will then be followed by the actual date of the launch. Sometime after launch 1-2 months there will be an update by the company on how AMZEEQ™ is being accepted in the market possibly some insight as to how sales are progressing. All of these are catalysts/dominoes that will fall.
The 10Q's in November and March will be catalysts as all 10Q's are in FOMX's case they will provide updates as to how things are progressing in regards to the commercial launch, the studies of FOMX5 the third commercial product in the pipeline for the company, the resuming of revenues from LEO Pharma A/S for sales of Finacea® foam, which was curtailed in the Q2 due to a failure on the part of LEO’s active pharmaceutical ingredient (“API”) manufacturer to meet the required specifications in the finished product. This was a draw on Q1 and Q2 which had been up to the disruption $1 million per Q which although not as significant as the $$ that will be generated by AMZEEQ™ with its commercial launch $1 million is still a million dollars. The 10Q's will also provide insight into other things the company has planned and how the launch is progressing etc. Those are not the most important catalyst in regard to filings, the most anticipated will be the filing in the beginning of May the Q1 release, where the first nearly full quarter of commercial sales into of the launch of AMZEEQ™. It will also show the company QoQ and YoY will have increased revenue who knows how many 100's of % and give insight and guidance to how much the following Q's and next 10K's revenues shall increase by 1000's of % YoY that is when it all gets very exciting as one can imagine, but that is to come we are speaking of catalysts that will come between now and then.
Then there is the 78th Annual Meeting of the Society for Investigative Dermatology in Scottsdale, Arizona May 13-16, 2020 both the announcement of their attendance and their presentation as well as the actual week of the conference both will be catalysts. As will any other investor or dermatology conference the company attends, they all will act as catalysts.
FMX 105 expected mid 2020
Potential catalysts in the coming 32 weeks until the pdufa date for FMX103.
1) Reiteration/Upgrades new outlooks given on FOMX since the recent approval and the recent acceptance of its application for FMX103 with a pdufa date of June 2020.
2) The initiation of coverage by new analysts and the re-initiation by analysts that have covered it in the past year now that the landscape has changed completely.
3) The filing of 13Gs by institutions that have been investors for a long period while the company was going through the development/trials/approvals and new institutional buyers now that the landscape has changed and most of the risk has been set aside.
4) Company outline of strategy timeline for production, deployment and execution strategy for the sales team for commercial launch of
AMZEEQ™.
5) The actual date of launch is a catalyst as it is the day that AMZEEQ™ is officially on the market and being sold.
6) Updates about how the launch is being accepted in the market by dermatologists etc a month or two into the commercial launch, with a probable insight into sales.
7) 10Q in Nov which will give further insight into the company’s steps going forward, the progression of FOMX5 studies, any conferences either investor or dermatology the company plans to attend and the LEO Pharma resumption of royalties from LEO Pharma A/S for sales of Finacea® foam.
8) 10Q in February which will have more of the same as the Q release in November but will also have insight into most importantly the progress etc. of the commercial launch as it will be about 2 months along at that point.
9) One would imagine that the company will announce they will be at the 78th Annual Meeting of the Society for Investigative Dermatology and will have a presentation on the studies of FOMX5.
10) The actual week of the conference in Scottsdale, Arizona May 13-16, 2020 will also be a catalyst.
11) The Q1 release the first week of May will be the most anticipated catalyst prior to the pdufa date for FMX103 as it will show the first near full Q of sales for the first three months after commercial launch. This will give revenues for that launch and insight into the revenues going forward.
12) Then there is the pdufa date itself and the lead up to that June 20th
13) The TLR for FMX105 anticipated mid 2020 it will be coming before or just after the pdufa date for FMX103 which will increase anticipation around the stock/company.
14) The actual pdufa date for FMX103 June 20th and the lead up to that.
15) 5 weeks after the pdufa date for FMX103 there is the Q2 release second full quarter of sales for AMZEEQ™.
In between all of these and the leading up to all of them, the week before 10Q's, the week before conferences, the week before the pdufa date, the anticipation around the TRL for FMX105 mid 2020 which is June/July and the lead up to the Q2 release and the week (s) before it are all catalysts. And in between now and the pdufa date for the second product in the Foamix pipleine which will open the company up to another Billion-dollar market anything else can occur that will act as a catalyst for the stock.
Now, the entire reason for this post is to give the view of an investor, at least this one and others who are old dogs who actually still invest in companies and don't just chase every car going down the road. This post as everyone that knows me and subsequent ones are to help rel investors have some insight and knowledge and provide links to information so that they can be sure they know for themselves what is happening and can brush off any Johnny know it all off as they already know.
Catalysts to an investor are different than they are to a trader they buy before to pump, I look to for their sell on the news to add on the bid always on bid never slapping the ask as investors don't do that, they take discarded shares at the discarded price then they lock them up and put good til cancel orders on them and go about their day. Only players give a toss about a price day to day week to week, not investors we know what is coming and when.
When one looks at the price offered by the hedges/shorts/bears on FOMX and the timeline and the catalysts that will help build/maintain the price over the next 32-40 weeks it’s a winner, there as almost no downside and a multitude of reasons for the upside. It gives one who is an investor the knowledge that no matter what they spout, what they push.
I know that in 32 weeks there will be 15 for sure things happening and the weeks that lead up to them will also provide support and reasons for the stock to build to a higher PPS many of those especially the TRL for FMX105 pdufa for FMX103 the commercial launch the Q1 results for the almost first full quarter of sales for AMZEEQ™ which is only 6 months out 25 weeks.
They can mess with it one day one week but I know things are coming lots and lots and lost and in this game of odds %'s I know at this price as an investor I already won the game, we are just waiting on the final score.
I will be posting a thorough DD post later today on specifics of the timelines what is coming what each means, like the clinical studies how long will they last, when/what will we expect to hear something, etc. etc.
Peace out.
FOMX DD POST THE BASICS
Foamix Pharmaceuticals
http://www.foamix.com/
October 2019 Investor Presentation (A MUST READ)
http://www.foamix.com/static-files/c4fa5ee5-5991-4ba8-ac57-bb3c011483ee
Recent Significant Events
Foamix Announces FDA Acceptance of its New Drug Application for FMX103 Minocycline Foam for the Treatment of Moderate-to-Severe Papulopustular Rosacea
http://www.foamix.com/news-releases/news-release-details/foamix-announces-fda-acceptance-its-new-drug-application-fmx103
UPDATE -- Foamix Receives FDA Approval of AMZEEQ™ Topical Minocycline Treatment for Millions of Moderate to Severe Acne Sufferers
http://www.foamix.com/news-releases/news-release-details/update-foamix-receives-fda-approval-amzeeqtm-topical-minocycline
Outstanding Shares: 61,003,927
Institutional/Fund 13G/13F Filers Latest SEC Edgar Filings
Had to go through the filings as no site seems to keep proper numbers, as the saying goes if want it done right do it yourself, so I did.
Perceptive Advisors/Joseph Edelman 11,203,881
OrbiMed Capital 5,195,330
Delaware Street Capital Master Fund 3,062,593
Meir Eini Holdings Ltd 3,015,024
Tamarkin Dov 2,930,783
Tamarkin Medical Innovations Ltd 2,751,447
Franklin Resources, Inc. 2,473,026
Axa 1,344,262
Sio Capital Management, LLC 1,295,669
Chizic Chaim 1,197,309
Sofinnova Ventures Inc 1,115,810
MILLENNIUM MANAGEMENT LLC 832,025
DAFNA Capital Management LLC 808,000
Senvest Management, LLC 755,998
Stonepine Capital Management, LLC 651,211
BlackRock Inc. 544,896
DLD Asset Management, LP 525,000
Baker Bros. Advisors 498,189
FIRST MANHATTAN CO 432,200
KNOTT DAVID M 371,046
Renaissance Technologies LLC 323,600
Tekla Capital Management LLC 300,781
Bank of New York Mellon Corp 277,096
Eversept Partners, Llc 263,390
BAILLIE GIFFORD & CO 219,400
DEUTSCHE BANK AG\ 189,511
ARK Investment Management LLC 146,745
WELLS FARGO & COMPANY/MN 130,202
Short interest which is no doubt higher today as the stock has been heavily shorted by those looking for FOMX to not receive FDA Approval, to bad, so sad shorts approval was granted
Shares sold short as of 09/30/2019 4,216,898
Analyst coverage and price targets, which one would think shall be updated in the coming days/weeks with the approval and acceptance of their second application for FOX3 the treatment of Moderate-to-Severe Papulopustular Rosacea with a Pdufa date of June 20, 2020 8 months from now.
All 4 with a buy recommendation with a price target average of $15.25
Bank OF America Securities
Cantor Fitzgerald
Cowen & Company
HC Wainwright
Will have a detailed DD post tomorrow outlaying the companies plans moving forward and a timeline for subsequent events.
Will have links etc so that one can do their DD with greater ease.
Your welcome as always.
Peace out.
Dip buying is the best buying for an investment, it rises once they cannot push it down further and funds increase their stakes which will without a shadow of a doubt increase this week and the next.
They get people to try and chase it then the flippers/pumpers all flip out of it many go short then and the short groups jump on, that's why watching the game and just waiting patiently for them is key, they will come to you/me/anyone, then just put them in a shoe box, cookie jar, coffee can, sock drawer or under the mattress set good til canceled sells #30-35 and relax, you already won the game, all that we are waiting for is the final score.
Peace out.
Doing a little brand building at Justice, not a bad thing.
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/lego-group-and-justice-build-on-partnership-to-inspire-more-girls-through-creative-building-play-300939584.html
Peace out.
It will be a nice climb indeed, will grow exponentially as each month passes.
Peace out.
That is how many are, they are bit a few but can cause chaos and distrust wherever they roam.
The thing is to just block them out, shut all the noise down.
Peace out.
Hey swampdude, going to do a full work up off DD on this one, had been working on one already, just going to take the time and finish it, should have it done and all up by Monday.
I already found one thing I had missed, I was mention that Joseph Edelman had 7.7% of the company I missed that he had filed 13G's updating his holdings he actually holds 18.4% 11,203,881 shares, which is very nice to see, in the biotech arena he is the Warren Buffet the biotech whisperer as it were.
Was just waiting for the first approval to go through and the second application for the next which will be coming out in 7 months, a lot is going to be happening with this in the next 7 months, a lot crammed into a very small timeline.
A lot needs updating and realistic DD so people can make informed decisions not ones based on hype either good or bad, its a serious investment that will return serious gains and should be treated as such not some cats plaything.
Will be an exciting fulfilling time to say the least, again good to see you.
Peace out.