FOMX and how the year plays out is not that hard to see for many reasons. When I read the Seeking Alpha article recently written about a traders position in FOMX and their reasons for holding, selling off part of their position it left me confused as when reading it I felt the writer was confused with that she/he was, a trader or an investor. For me it was obvious they were a trader with a rather short outlook in what/how they see the market as a whole, maybe this comes from their not being in the market for very long and have a somewhat narrow view due to age or the way they see the market only knowing it for a few years which anyone who has been in it long enough knows it shows a different face as a new generation comes in with its own ideas of how it should /will work, but, as it always does the market will prove what it is and always will be no matter what some make it out to be or perceive it as.
The stock market is/was and has always been an investment/speculative tool for companies old and new to seek someone willing to make a bet on their future idea/plan/ for a new company or one that has a longstanding reputation and is either trying to reinvent itself or fight its way back from poor decisions made by management, which is an all too real occurrence and has been since the markets beginning, in my opinion with mismanagement there should never be even a thought of investment until all the top management is gone and new injected into the business with proven track records.
Now in where my thoughts as an investor as opposed to being a trader who perceives themselves as an investor I see an entirely different outlook and reason for investing in FOMX now for the next 9-12 months, not okay I should bail on almost my entire "play" and hold a little bit to see how things go, that a trader not an investor and with such a strategy one will always find themselves being a trader not an investor and always having to seek out that fresh idea, that fresh play where as an investor has a plan sees it and executes it.
FOMX with the help of short sellers and traders/flippers whatever one wishes to call them those two groups provided and easy almost no risk IMHO price entry and hold time as the map for the next 7 months minimum is laid out so perfectly its almost the perfect biotech investment. It’s an extremely fair price it has catalysts that over the next 8 months until the next pdufa for FMX3 which IMHO is just as much a sure thing as FOMX was. I will lay out how I see the next 8-12 months as the writing is on the wall and for an investor it’s easy to see how to execute it and why it will come to fruition for a numerous reasons (catalyst) that will just fall like dominoes one after another after another, it’s almost too easy.
Starting now we have just gone under literally 8 months till the next pdufa for FMX103 which like FMX101 if one views the clinical trial material etc it’s about as sure a thing as FMX101 was. Next there was just announced Friday night the approval of FMX101 and all that comes with that. There is more likely than not to be reiterations of targets by analysts already covering the stock who gave their price targets and thoughts on FOMX prior to knowing for certain if AMZEEQ™ would be approved and that page has turned it was approved so all the caution with that happening is over and now they can/will re-access their outlook on FOMX as the landscape changed, yes it is how they thought it would be but now it is, and they can now look at an access how the company will be moving forward in regards to that and how all that will play out.
Secondly their assessment's outlooks were given without the application for FMX103 being accepted and so soon and in line with AMZEEQ™ and its approval and all that entails, they thought before now they know and can plot out as I and other investors will do a timeline, of how things will fall into place and happen over the next 8 months. As well now that the landscape has changed and the picture has gotten more clear others might begin coverage when they access the outlook of FOMX in the coming 12 months as that is how analyst view/judge/analyze a stock/companies performance and recent events have totally changed that landscape. So, in the next 32 weeks until the pdufa date for FMX103 those are two catalysts that the company/stock will more than likely have during that time period more so as each known event occurs and the pdufa date for FMX3 approaches. I look at timelines and weeks and possible catalyst when viewing an investment, not whether it is good or not, but, in today's short term thinker atmosphere in the market at least a portion of it it is important, it isn't to 95% of the holders of a stock but to those 5% it matters as they are not investors but traders and to them it’s all about the next catalyst, always chasing never quite getting there. So at the end of this post I will just list the catalyst I am mentioning now and number them as the number/amount of them and the 32 week timeline does add to the positive feeling one can have in this investment, it’s not going anywhere except up form the next 8 months that is a given, will it have the short attacks etc, sure, but that is trader worries, not an "investors" with a 12+ month outlook as what happens today is meaningless tell me about whats happening next week, next month, next year, today is a traders worry and will he get that 2-5% up or downside whichever side he is on that day week etc.
Other catalysts ahead are the filing of further 13G/13F's as old institutional/fund investors add now that the picture has gotten clearer and new funds/institutions starting positions for the very same reason. Many who didn't/don/t like to be in the game when the money is only going in one direction, out. Have a different perspective once the money is going to start flowing in the opposite direction, everyone wants to be there when its "show me the money" time. One might ask how is this a catalyst, simple and ot goes back to the market as it is today it gives traders pause, both on the short and long side, some short traders may feel let me find a spot higher or let me just go find an easier stock with a much easier path to the downside. Short term long traders will see it as a reason to hold/push higher as the outlook to the upside with those type of players adding to or starting positions and stocks do react positively to such filings so yes I do consider them a catalyst and going forward the next 32 weeks with each event, milestone that possibility grows.
The next domino to fall with be the company outlining the production, placement and and execution strategy of sales force for AMZEEQ™ followed by a date for commercial launch a hard date where now it is just a January 2020 launch time horizon. This will be a catalyst as again it will put the company in people’s ears and give investors and the public a hard date timeline for the commercial launch, which will then be followed by the actual date of the launch. Sometime after launch 1-2 months there will be an update by the company on how AMZEEQ™ is being accepted in the market possibly some insight as to how sales are progressing. All of these are catalysts/dominoes that will fall.
The 10Q's in November and March will be catalysts as all 10Q's are in FOMX's case they will provide updates as to how things are progressing in regards to the commercial launch, the studies of FOMX5 the third commercial product in the pipeline for the company, the resuming of revenues from LEO Pharma A/S for sales of Finacea® foam, which was curtailed in the Q2 due to a failure on the part of LEO’s active pharmaceutical ingredient (“API”) manufacturer to meet the required specifications in the finished product. This was a draw on Q1 and Q2 which had been up to the disruption $1 million per Q which although not as significant as the $$ that will be generated by AMZEEQ™ with its commercial launch $1 million is still a million dollars. The 10Q's will also provide insight into other things the company has planned and how the launch is progressing etc. Those are not the most important catalyst in regard to filings, the most anticipated will be the filing in the beginning of May the Q1 release, where the first nearly full quarter of commercial sales into of the launch of AMZEEQ™. It will also show the company QoQ and YoY will have increased revenue who knows how many 100's of % and give insight and guidance to how much the following Q's and next 10K's revenues shall increase by 1000's of % YoY that is when it all gets very exciting as one can imagine, but that is to come we are speaking of catalysts that will come between now and then.
Then there is the 78th Annual Meeting of the Society for Investigative Dermatology in Scottsdale, Arizona May 13-16, 2020 both the announcement of their attendance and their presentation as well as the actual week of the conference both will be catalysts. As will any other investor or dermatology conference the company attends, they all will act as catalysts.
FMX 105 expected mid 2020
Potential catalysts in the coming 32 weeks until the pdufa date for FMX103.
1) Reiteration/Upgrades new outlooks given on FOMX since the recent approval and the recent acceptance of its application for FMX103 with a pdufa date of June 2020.
2) The initiation of coverage by new analysts and the re-initiation by analysts that have covered it in the past year now that the landscape has changed completely.
3) The filing of 13Gs by institutions that have been investors for a long period while the company was going through the development/trials/approvals and new institutional buyers now that the landscape has changed and most of the risk has been set aside.
4) Company outline of strategy timeline for production, deployment and execution strategy for the sales team for commercial launch of
AMZEEQ™.
5) The actual date of launch is a catalyst as it is the day that AMZEEQ™ is officially on the market and being sold.
6) Updates about how the launch is being accepted in the market by dermatologists etc a month or two into the commercial launch, with a probable insight into sales.
7) 10Q in Nov which will give further insight into the company’s steps going forward, the progression of FOMX5 studies, any conferences either investor or dermatology the company plans to attend and the LEO Pharma resumption of royalties from LEO Pharma A/S for sales of Finacea® foam.
8) 10Q in February which will have more of the same as the Q release in November but will also have insight into most importantly the progress etc. of the commercial launch as it will be about 2 months along at that point.
9) One would imagine that the company will announce they will be at the 78th Annual Meeting of the Society for Investigative Dermatology and will have a presentation on the studies of FOMX5.
10) The actual week of the conference in Scottsdale, Arizona May 13-16, 2020 will also be a catalyst.
11) The Q1 release the first week of May will be the most anticipated catalyst prior to the pdufa date for FMX103 as it will show the first near full Q of sales for the first three months after commercial launch. This will give revenues for that launch and insight into the revenues going forward.
12) Then there is the pdufa date itself and the lead up to that June 20th
13) The TLR for FMX105 anticipated mid 2020 it will be coming before or just after the pdufa date for FMX103 which will increase anticipation around the stock/company.
14) The actual pdufa date for FMX103 June 20th and the lead up to that.
15) 5 weeks after the pdufa date for FMX103 there is the Q2 release second full quarter of sales for AMZEEQ™.
In between all of these and the leading up to all of them, the week before 10Q's, the week before conferences, the week before the pdufa date, the anticipation around the TRL for FMX105 mid 2020 which is June/July and the lead up to the Q2 release and the week (s) before it are all catalysts. And in between now and the pdufa date for the second product in the Foamix pipleine which will open the company up to another Billion-dollar market anything else can occur that will act as a catalyst for the stock.
Now, the entire reason for this post is to give the view of an investor, at least this one and others who are old dogs who actually still invest in companies and don't just chase every car going down the road. This post as everyone that knows me and subsequent ones are to help rel investors have some insight and knowledge and provide links to information so that they can be sure they know for themselves what is happening and can brush off any Johnny know it all off as they already know.
Catalysts to an investor are different than they are to a trader they buy before to pump, I look to for their sell on the news to add on the bid always on bid never slapping the ask as investors don't do that, they take discarded shares at the discarded price then they lock them up and put good til cancel orders on them and go about their day. Only players give a toss about a price day to day week to week, not investors we know what is coming and when.
When one looks at the price offered by the hedges/shorts/bears on FOMX and the timeline and the catalysts that will help build/maintain the price over the next 32-40 weeks it’s a winner, there as almost no downside and a multitude of reasons for the upside. It gives one who is an investor the knowledge that no matter what they spout, what they push.
I know that in 32 weeks there will be 15 for sure things happening and the weeks that lead up to them will also provide support and reasons for the stock to build to a higher PPS many of those especially the TRL for FMX105 pdufa for FMX103 the commercial launch the Q1 results for the almost first full quarter of sales for AMZEEQ™ which is only 6 months out 25 weeks.
They can mess with it one day one week but I know things are coming lots and lots and lost and in this game of odds %'s I know at this price as an investor I already won the game, we are just waiting on the final score.
I will be posting a thorough DD post later today on specifics of the timelines what is coming what each means, like the clinical studies how long will they last, when/what will we expect to hear something, etc. etc.
Peace out.
