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Congrats, nice return on the trade!
Snow
AMD is up over $4 after hours.
Snow
Agreed, that's my initial assessment too. Still have to think about this.
Snow
Personally, I believe Intel was short-sighted when they didn't incorporate OBM I'm assuming OBM means On Board Memory or the Integrated Memory Controller that AMD uses. If not then don't bother reading the rest of this post. If so, then I can tell you that Intel doesn't see this as a disruptive technology like you do. While IMC has provided signficant benefits to AMD's architecture over the past few years it has yet to prove as a long term viable capability. In fact, IMHO, the IMC is the primary reason it's taking AMD so long to come out with any significant or meaningful upgrades to their current architecture let alone any new architectures.
Snow
Smooth,
I see your point but have a follow up question. How long do you think it will take AMD to proliferate K8L to the desktop and mobile markets? Do you think it will be quick enough to counter a potential 45nm Core 2 Duo product line from Intel?
Snow
Smooth,
That's one of the worst reviews I've ever read. From the article Seems like the Turion 64 X2 would give Intel's Dual Core a run for its money if history repeats itself. Core Duo is available today, why didn't they use a Core Duo based system in their benchmarking. Also, why are they comparing a new Mobile CPU to and older (Pentium 4) Desktop CPU rather than Core Duo? I think they were a little lazy with their analysis.
Snow
Did you notice the comments from AMD about being 95% better in power than Intel now, but ~45% better than Conroe?
I didn't, can you please provide a link or specs from both companies (i.e. vs only the specs from AMD)
Snow
Ixse,
That looks great for server products but what about Desktop and Mobile? I doubt they're planning to use a quad core cpu for Desktop and Mobile. If they do, say good by to their capacity.
Snow
Smooth,
It depends on how HP's competition in the high end server space use and sell Intel based systems. If they're aggressive and take HP's market share then you may see a different outcome.
Snow
Joey,
All the BS and FUD aside, what he's really saying is that they're planning to hold the line with their existing product offerings and future incremental/evolutionary changes. Well guess what? That's what Intel did for the past two years and it didn't work very well.
I expect AMD will loose significant market share if they use the "hold the line" strategy. I can hear it now - Hector: HOLD THE LINE! AMD Workforce: But sir they're sending Tiger Tanks at us and we don't even have Shermans to back us up!
Snow
How about that Intel Stock Price today? Down $.21. Oh wait a second, this isn't the Intel Investing Board this is the Doug Do Loop Board. Speaking of board, I'm bored with these conversations with Doug. Can we please move on? What's the saying? Don't feed the Trolls.
Snow
demand for existing Turion notebooks is extremely low.
But, but, the droids said Centrino was a dud and Turion was going to quickly eat into its market share. ;)
Snow
Tecate,
There will be major restructuring and people will loose their jobs but it won't be the traditional 'mass lay off' like what CB did in 2000 and 2001. PO said he wants to be very smart about this restructuring because mass lay offs tend to get rid of the wrong people and talent.
Snow
Alan,
I haven't been to the Motley Fool AMD board in a long time. I was wondering if you still go there and if Eachus see's the 'Clear and Present Danger' that Merom, Conroe, and Woodcrest pose.
Snow
Chipdesigner: just go away, you're not adding any value to this discussion board.
Snow
Stop trolling Kate! ;) Just kidding.
Snow
And also, these numbers suggest that Intel would have to start ramping their fabs with Woodcrests this quarter, so that they are poised in early Q3 to ship out fully packaged and tested parts to customers.
You are correct, the ramp is well underway.
Snow
wbmw,
OK, I don't have a problem with that. I do prefer Ixse's contrarian approach though. It seems like highlandpk only shows up when he has bad news to rub in our face.
Snow
highlandpk,
If I were you, I would be focusing on my AMD investment rather than trolling the INTC board. Most on this board, and in the market, knew that Q1 and Q2 were/are going to be very difficult quarters for Intel. On the other hand, we also have high expectations for Q3 and beyond because Intel has an extremely competitive architecture, manufacturing process, and marketing strategy that should reward us nicely.
You, as an AMD investor, don't quiet have the same rosey future ahead. AMD has been very quite about how they plan to compete with Intel in the 2H06 and 1H07. If AMD truly thinks a simply process shrink and change to 300mm will make the difference, then I would be very worried as and AMD investor.
Now go troll somewhere else and be careful about getting lost in your own noise.
Snow
Correction, $1.7B Operating Income not Net Income.
Snow
Not as bad as I feared. $8.9B Revenue, $1.7B Net Income. The market will focus on four negatives:
1. Gross Margin Deacrease ~ 4%
2. YoY Inventory Increase ~ $400M
3. YoY Cash Burn ~ $3.4B
4. Q2 Outlook, not good
With all this in mind, I think there will be some overhang into Q3 but we should reach the bottom at the end of Q2. I expect great things for Q4.
http://www.intel.com/pressroom/archive/releases/20060419corp.pdf
Snow
Kate,
Bookmark this article. We'll revisit this in a year and see if the author is still singing the same tune.
Snow
LOL, I wouldn't put it past AMD.
Snow
Tenchu,
You're seeing the same thing I am. I don't have a subscription, so I can't pull out any quotes from the article.
Snow
It's only because Intel was stronger than Japan's military and forced Japan to buy Dell computers. ;)
Snow
AMD needs one customer or partner to say: "Intel forced us to buy their processors over AMD" and they have a chance. However, at the rate AMD is pulling other companies into their lawsuit, I'm beginning to think they haven't found any or enough evidence to make their case.
Snow
AMD is at it again, so predictable. They subpoena'd Microsoft in antitrust case against Intel. Let me guess AMD's concern: Microsoft, did Intel twist your arm to forgo $B's in revenue to delay Vista so they could be ready for the launch?
Brother. AMD is making a lot of unhappy partners and customers on their way to trying to prove Intel was anti-competitive.
Snow
There's a movie title that summarizes AMD's earnings today:
As Good As It Gets
I'm looking forward to Q3 and Q4 2006 for INTC. For those droids that ask why I would invest in INTC?
1. I believe the stock is going to bottom out after next week's earnings announcement
2. Woodcrest
3. Conroe
4. Merom
5. Apple
6. 65nm
Snow
When the processor begins to overheat or encounters other conditions that could threaten the motherboard
I've had my 2.4Ghz Pentium IV for over three years and this has never happened. On the other hand, my spyware and antivirus has deflected numerous attacks on my PC. I would be more worried about that than some extremely rare occurance of an overheating CPU giving a hacker access to my PC.
Snow
Dispensing advice while your stock is at 52 week low?
Intel's stock price should have nothing to do with your decision to invest in AMD. I'm curious, what are your reasons for investing in AMD at this point in time. What are you expectig AMD to do in the FUTURE to maintain and/or grow their current stock price? This is what you should be focused on.
Snow
Ixse,
I think you're right on two points:
1. AMD's full conversion to 65nm won't happen by mid 2007
2. Fab 30 is too old and probably too expensive to convert
Snow
Petz,
As we would say in World of Warcraft, you just got owned! Nice post Chipguy.
Snow
It's quiet, almost too quiet. I'm expecting AMD to come out with another legal PR stunt. It will probably be another trade commission visiting or should I say "raiding" Intel offices. I hope I'm wrong, but AMD has been pretty predictable with this whole law suit.
Snow
Good thing for corporate NDA's. He will have to be very tight lipped about Itanium and Intel's strategy or he can face legal prosecution.
Snow
To have a good hardware platform for a very performance consuming OS that is not last decades hardware for 80% of the systems could be a valid point.
This doesn't really hold much water because Intel already has 64 bit desktops and servers. The only products that don't have 64 bit compatability are the laptops. As a result, MS already has greater than 70% of the hardware base needed to support Vista.
Snow
Rink,
I just can't rule out the other explanation either, not even on the basis of your logical arguments.
I don't think the problem is that you consider it a possibility in a list of posibilities. The problem is that it is your default position and you don't really want to hear about the other posibilities because they don't align with your agenda.
Snow
My Turion X2 Thoughts
I've took a step back and started thinking about the recent Turion X2 announcment. As I thought about it, I realized that it really is FUD. Why? Because AMD doesn't have a product to compete with Core Duo. The current Core Duo trounces a single core Turion and AMD doesn't have a response. So what do they do? They try to say that Core Duo doesn't have 64 bits so it's inferior and they also try to shore up their position by saying a Turion X2 is on the way.
Here's the reality. Core Duo exists today and trounces AMD's current offering (even with 64 bits). AMD doesn't have a real response today and the Turion X2 is still vaporware and it will most likely be supply constrained when it is released, so they spread FUD. "Don't buy Intel, wait for AMD we will beat Intel." Reality - Intel is beating AMD hands down in the mobile market.
Well, gotta go catch an airplane and watch a movie on my new Intel based laptop that I know has more than enough battery life.
Snow
Ixse,
Let the horse race begin! I have my camera ready and I'm waiting at the finish line. :)
Snow
If the frequencies are available at launch it'll impact Intel's mobile ASP's until Merom in a significant way.
I'm assuming you're saying this because you believe that 64 bit support is a significant factor in the purchasing decision. If my assumption is correct, then we'll have to agree to disagree because 64 bits has done little for the single core Turion over the single core Pentium M processors and Centrino Platform.
Correct me if I'm wrong, doesn't Core Duo have higher IPC than Turion? If true, then a 2.16GHz Centrino Duo platform should have no problem outperforming a Turion X2. Personnally, I'm curious to see the battery life of an Turion X2 based system.
Snow
I plan to purchase a 2.4GHz Conroe when it comes out. It will be my first desktop upgrade since my 1.8GHz Northwood 4+ years ago.
Me too, except I'm planning to replace my 2.4GHz NW with a 2.4GHz Conroe. It would be interesting to benchmark the performance of these two CPU's to show just how far Intel has come with the Core Architecture.
Snow