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MORE BAD NEWS !
We knew this could happen.
First the Downgrade and now this :
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/plug-power-inc-nasdaq-plug-103200577.html
YES ! ANDY LIES !
But I can't believe I am saying this; But in PLUG's defense, it is better to wait until the rules are FINAL before starting a new plant, so that you can better optimize for the new rules. You may not need the 45v ( a lie) , but better to take best advantage of the rules if you haven't even begun the plant.
For TN and GA we were already too pregnant.
PLUG has stated that they are only working on the Tennessee and Georgia hydrogen plants. All other hydrogen plants are on hold until the Final Rules are known; so at least 8-9 months the earliest. Most in industry are saying Final Rules won't be ready until AFTER the November elections.
Even just these two plants are putting a financial strain on PLUG.
Gee, I hope they don't delay TN and GA until the Final Rules are ready. This would mean yet another year's delay.
B_B & Banger - MORE BAD NEWS !
The 2023 numbers are in, and now Paul is trying to move some numbers around for optics, so the January update and 10-K don't look SO BAD !
At the January business update, I think Andy is going to have to revise his estimates for 2023 AND 2024. And I am beginning to wonder if they might be sitting on some News about Tennessee and Georgia until then.
Q-4 (2023) is going to be a disaster, with record losses.
And contrary to what Paul says, PLUG won't be "turning on / fully operational" Texas until 2026 the earliest, and ONLY IF PLUG can raise $1.0 + Billion ASAP. Without a major capital raise, Texas, NY and California are all in doubt.
PLUG has already proven several times that they don't know what it takes to make a working hydrogen plant to scale or how long it takes, but it won't be happening in 2025.
What was the tag line for the Mega - Symposium ? "Hydrogen is Easy !"
TAX LOSS SELLING ! LOL.
Or more likely; the DOWNWARD trend continues
WTM - And Boeing Doors Fall Off.
Can you try to posting something anything that relates to PLUG ?
WTM - PLUG has lots of customers who are valid / legit companies.
This doesn't make PLUG a real company.
WTM - Bosch is a Real Hydrogen Company. Good Find.
B_B - Does this mean you are changing your position and forecast for 2024 ?
"Doesn’t matter, in 2024 hydrogen will be implemented everywhere.
The battle for oil market share has already begun. The oil price will collapse and all announced oil mergers will be canceled."
B_B - I hope you are right. I'm long some excellent Hydrogen plays.
But in the US with Hub funding not being distributed until Q-4 24 or 2025 and IRA / 45v not happening for at least 8 - 9 months, you may be a bit early for your predictions.
If people are waiting for the 45v final rules to place their orders or build their facilities, those decisions are 9 months away, leaving just one Quarter left in 2024.
Although your guesstimate would be nice, I don't share your optimism until 2025 the earliest.
WTM - Ditto. I haven't seen you do that very often, but keep trying .... And I shall do the same.
Let's begin with PLUG's share price. You have been pumping since ... when ?
And I have been warning interested parties of PLUG's failings since CEO Marsh dumped his shares at $65.
WTM - Thank you . Here are a couple more videos.
Note: Most Hydrogen tanks are stationary. We already know that these tanks don't do as well when a vehicle backs into one.
https://thedriven.io/2023/07/21/explosions-were-heard-hydrogen-bus-destroyed-by-fire-while-refuelling/
https://www.google.com/search?sca_esv=595462505&tbm=vid&sxsrf=AM9HkKnRfq965OzEpTPoRfKZ3SvRH0IvMw:1704319981657&q=Hydrogen+tank+explosion+car&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjB8NvYnsKDAxX9t4QIHZ4xC-0Q1QJ6BAgJEAE&biw=1536&bih=710&dpr=1.25#fpstate=ive&vld=cid:5acdd2fa,vid:aMKvfK2KM34,st:0
B_B - What a great idea ! No need to pressurize Hydrogen to 10,000 PSI !
Now every Hydrogen car only needs a Zeppelin in tow. What could go wrong?
So a NOTHING BURGER after all.
NOT A GAME CHANGER !
NO MENTION OF HYZN.
Only a few Amazon facilities have direct access to renewable / UNSTABLE power.
This supply must be augmented with voltage stabilization (an huge added cost). Think Elon Musk's BIG Expensive Batteries.
So "FREE Solar Power " isn't so free or green or renewable after all.
So NOT 100% Green. So NOT 100% Free. So Limited applications.
These sound more like the Real World issues Microsoft experienced.
The good news : Amazon will have to replace their PLUG Electrolyzer equipment more frequently .
The BAD NEWS : I am certain that Amazon will have warrantees which cover these replacements at PLUG's cost.
So a NOTHING BURGER after all.
Thanks tdtcal.
Only a few Amazon facilities have direct access to renewable / UNSTABLE power.
This supply must be augmented with voltage stabilization (an huge added cost). Think Elon Musk's BIG Expensive Batteries.
So "FREE Solar Power " isn't so free or green or renewable after all.
So NOT 100% Green. So NOT 100% Free. So Limited applications.
These sound more like the Real World issues Microsoft experienced.
The good news : Amazon will have to replace their PLUG Electrolyzer equipment more frequently .
The BAD NEWS : I am certain that Amazon will have warrantees which cover these replacements at PLUG's cost.
Banger -
1.) Cycling a PEM will shorten its life span by 50%.
2.) Can a PEM be dialed back ? Or does it run fulll on and full off.
3.) The Microsoft trials demonstrated that the concept works (no surprise), but the economics didn't.
4.) Is the Amazon Deal actually a trial as well? Since PLUG omits most of the key metrics from their PR, we do not know until after the fact.
5.) Only a small number of Amazon sites have on-site renewable energy.
6.) It will be quite interesting to see if we will ever learn how much solar is free? how much green power costs when it isn't free?, and how much of the time (percentage) is the power not green.
I buy 100% green power from my provider, but I know that it isn't always 100% green. Accountants figure it out at the end of the day.
Banger - is there free surplus solar power for Amazon 24/7 ?
What do they use at night ? Cloudy days?
What happens if you continually cycle an electrolyzer instead of running it steadily.
As for the article, you might want to ask the author for his recommendations. I try not to recommend stocks.
But for me , when I Dumped my PLUG shares I went long on JM and Linde because, WTM, I like hydrogen. I also like Chevron's hydrogen strategy much more than PLUG's.
I like hydrogen, but I don't like risk or poor management.
NOTHING BURGER : Amazon's Hydrogen-Powered Logistics with Plug Power
Amazon is calling this a pilot project. The cost of Hydrogen will be the deal killer.
Here is an Interesting Read:
https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/01/06/while-i-wont-touch-plug-power-stock-heres-an-emerg/
B_B - So what?
What is the pressure in a gasoline or kerosene tank ?
We don't even need to discuss flammability.
10,000 PSI will kill you without a fire.
WTM - CORRECTION : I have never said "hydrogen as not being safe in any application.".
But I am a counter to posters like you who imply Hydrogen can cure all ills, and is perfectly safe and totally economic.
Any industrial gas at 10,000 PSI is dangerous ... putting it in the back of a passenger vehicle is irresponsible. Tank safety for cars is nascent ... just ask the guy in the Pickup Truck whose vehicle was destroyed by a small, low-pressure tank.
And it isn't fires that are my main concern. If/When someone backs their Pickup Truck into a hydrogen tank at a station, there doesn't need to be a fired to level the city block. Everyone always compares hydrogen to gasoline and diesel and talk about fire safety. But these fuels spill and don't always explode or burn.
At 10,000 PSI, a "spill or failure" could do more damage than a fire.
WTM - Not hypocritical ! I hate PLUG, I like Hydrogen. I like SAFETY !
B_B - So up with the market, but not because of anything directly related to PLUG ?
Not very encouraging.
The DOWNTREND CONTINUES !
Without a Major Positive Catalyst, the Downward Trend will continue.
Most of the PLUG news has been Negative, and every day the Money Pit in Georgia sits idle is a HUGE Negative.
And most of the recent PRs are Nothing Burgers.
Finally, I continue to see indicators that Georgia's Hydrogen won't be as inexpensive as we have been told.
We have been misled by PLUG many times in the past and I believe this is yet another instance of Hype vs Reality.
PLUG can't get a grasp on Georgia because they have never done a hydrogen plant to scale before. They are all neophytes. It would be like any of us trying to build a hydrogen plant. They don't even know what they don't know.
My proof ? They boasted : "Hydrogen is Easy." Only someone who has never worked in Hydrogen would say this !
Some of us have been around industrial gases for years and we KNOW Hydrogen is the most difficult gas to manage, and Liquid Hydrogen is orders of magnitude more complex.
I stated here last year that Georgia wouldn't be fully operational until 2024 the earliest. How is it that I knew this and PLUG didn't? Neophytes !
I don't like or believe the management and I hate the company and its broken business model, but I do support Hydrogen. Just NOT PLUG.
runner - Good Points !
Is California actually enforcing those trucking rules ? It's nice to have those rules on paper, but if no one cares, ICE's will continue to roll.
January 1 , was the BIG Day , but California doesn't seem to be very serious.
Hydrogen is so Easy.
WTM - Banger - I saw two of these trucks unveiled in Brisbane, QLD.
They were HYZN trucks.
I don't think they are allowed on the bridges or tunnels.
Banger - It's pretty sad isn't it?
PLUG having to slow their growth to conserve funds.
I wonder if Andy will account for this in his 2024 Update?
Hydrogen is Easy !
WTM - TESLA had a HUGE ADVANTAGE. The Power Grid , Generation, and most of TESLA's power needs were already built and paid for.
Heck, you might even have electricity in your home !
How's that Hydrogen Grid doing?
It will take DECADES for Hydrogen / FCEV's to touch TESLA's successes.
WTM - Nothing Burger.
Naw - I just let PLUG push the share price DOWN for me.
I can't wait for Andy's 2024 update. MORE BAD NEWS !
WTM - Is there a Direct Financial impact for PLUG ?
How much ?
WTM - Me either. But many here behave like they do.
B_B - Hurry. We need more pumps ...
Maybe it's WTM's turn ?
B_B - Thanks to you PLUG is up in the pre market.
Well done.
Mac - Correct. Because your Propane Tank is only at 100 PSI.
Hydrogen is at 10,000 PSI. Even without a fire Hydrogen can wipe out a neighborhood !
Did you see what was left of that Pickup Truck (below) ? That was just a small, low-pressure tank failure ! No Fire!
Can you imagine if there was a Fire ? A bunch of hydrogen vehicles in a parking garage under a hospital ? A Fire / Hydrogen / 10,000 PSI. How would you like to be the First Responder who has to hold the hose in a Blast Chamber ?
https://www.google.com/search?sca_esv=595462505&tbm=vid&sxsrf=AM9HkKnRfq965OzEpTPoRfKZ3SvRH0IvMw:1704319981657&q=Hydrogen+tank+explosion+car&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjB8NvYnsKDAxX9t4QIHZ4xC-0Q1QJ6BAgJEAE&biw=1536&bih=710&dpr=1.25#fpstate=ive&vld=cid:5acdd2fa,vid:aMKvfK2KM34,st:0
Mac - Unless there is a wildfire, you are pretty safe with Propane at 100 PSI. You should look at some of the Propane tank explosion videos from the California wildfires on YouTube.
Can you imagine what a hydrogen tank at 10,000 PSI will do in a wildfire ? .... Kiss your micro-grid neighborhood good bye.
https://thedriven.io/2023/07/21/explosions-were-heard-hydrogen-bus-destroyed-by-fire-while-refuelling/
https://www.google.com/search?sca_esv=595462505&tbm=vid&sxsrf=AM9HkKnRfq965OzEpTPoRfKZ3SvRH0IvMw:1704319981657&q=Hydrogen+tank+explosion+car&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjB8NvYnsKDAxX9t4QIHZ4xC-0Q1QJ6BAgJEAE&biw=1536&bih=710&dpr=1.25#fpstate=ive&vld=cid:5acdd2fa,vid:aMKvfK2KM34,st:0
Mac - Have you converted your home or car to hydrogen yet ?
Why not ? You could be the first one on your block with a Hydrogen Bomb in your yard. 10,000 PSI !
And what does your tiny Propane Bomb have ... 100 PSI ? What a wuss.
velcro - That was my read exactly. I respect him for doing what he did.
If he had chosen the nuclear option and announced the scam at the Symposium, he would have hurt too many good people.
So he played nice at the Show, but I could see something was very wrong.
WTM - He calls me .
WTM - He does. But you can also contact him directly through his many links as I do.
WTM - But you Said ...
WeTheMarket
Re: Jack_Bolander post# 54503
Monday, January 01, 2024 1:53:25 PM
Post#
54504 of 54559
JB, he is one of the most informed individuals on hydrogen, and his videos/podcasts are fair and balanced. I don't always agree with him, but respect his opinions. For example, he supports elements of the three pillars in regulating the IRA clean hydrogen production tax credits, while myself, like Andy Marsh, oppose any implementation of the three pillars, but would tolerate a phased in approach, many years from now, to give the nascent hydrogen economy a chance to materialize and flourish.