I think $6 million is the over/under on revenues. Above $6 million POLA surges. Below it will sell off. That's my WAG.

I think it was encouraging they reaffirmed expected Q2 closing. Otherwise, operating results were in line with recent Qs.

It's hard to imagine the deal won't be approved as there has been no effort to oppose it. The interesting question is whether the share price will rise appreciably when approval is announced or the market will still want more assurance about to timing/amount of distributions.

Class action lawyers monitor these types of transactions carefully and are quick to sue to get lead position if they see anything the least suspicious that could be a basis for a claim. So far there's been nothing which is encouraging. Of course, it could still happen later which is probably the major reason they don't want to do large first distribution. Beyond the escrow amount they also need some reserve for legal in case there's a fight over escrow proceeds. I'm guessing there will still be a larger second distribution within 6 months of the first if all is quiet with the buyer and there's no class action litigation.

I agree continued shorting at this share price is unnerving. I get concerned that some people may have visibility on RFPs and other pending orders and some may have not come through. Still seems odd to me that shorts think a company with no debt, lots of cash, small cash burn, modest market cap and huge global market opportunity is a good short. Seems like a risky bet unless they know something specific.

It makes me feel queazy when a stock starts sliding before earnings so it was great to see the rebound today. On a thinly traded stock like POLA sometimes price movement is more about the selling motivations of a few shareholders which may be totally unrelated to their assessment of POLA's prospects going forward (e.g. paying a college tuition bill, putting down payment on house etc.).

APWC KIK I have no news. Just languishing as usual with no drivers to spark buying interest. Don't think that recent offer to buy shares at $4 is meaningful because parent is majority owner. Earnings always unpredictable driven as much by FX, change in copper price, receivable writeoffs as by unit sales. They report a strong quarter and the share price could recover some, but I think this one is a classic example of a value trap.

When I pull up the quote for POLA on etrade, there's a bar at the top that says "Q1 earnings are expected to be released after market hours on 4/30/18". I don't know what their basis is for posting that.

Makes sense that the "extra" volume of 50,000 shares in short covering over that 2 weeks was the catalyst for the price surge. Now it feels like short covering has subsided and the bulls have placed their bets before earnings and the price will hover until the release.

I see increasing interest rates to more normal historic levels as being a bullish signal--like taking a patient off life support. IMO the Fed should have moved sooner. The tax cut and ballooning deficits provide plenty of stimulus to an already healthy economy. A flat yield curve could be a negative for banks and other financials but otherwise shouldn't hurt stocks. Don't think gradually higher interest rates will either. Some pundits have already started predicting a near term top and recession. I don't see that happening any time soon (before 2020). If higher yielding bonds become a bigger part of individual portfolios, it could also stimulate personal consumption which has been an elusive component of the current expansion.

Holter-- I think you're getting confused by wondering how much you're being offered for your shares. You're not being offered anything. You're being asked to approve the sale of virtually all the company assets at a price of .012 per share compared to Friday's closing price of .0043 per share. If the transaction is approved and closes the company has said it will make an initial distribution to shareholders of between .0025 and .0035 per share. Assuming an initial distribution of .003 per share, the company will still have .009 per share in cash before closing costs, taxes and any other liabilities. Separately, the company has $1 million in cash which it will retain so let's assume that $1 million is sufficient to cover closing costs, taxes and other liabilities including the cost of dissolving the company. We know .0015 of the .009 per share must be held in escrow for two years which still leaves up to .0075 per share for potential distribution during the two years prior to any final escrow distribution. Assuming the escrow is untapped and ultimately distributed, there would be total distributions of .003 + .0075 + .0015= .012 per share compared to the current share price of .0043.
Assuming the transaction closes I think the biggest risk in terms of potential liabilities is whether there's litigation from a third-party in the company's sordid past, from plaintiff lawyers trying to exploit the transaction or maybe even from the buyer after taking over the assets and finding something he doesn't like. So distributions to shareholders could end up lower because of litigation expenses but I still think this is a great arbitrage opportunity.

NAP--Out at 4.59 after averaging down to 3.71. That was a wild ride that ended well. Now the dividend yield is at a level of much better established and more stable MLPs, BDCs and REITs so think it is now at or above fair value.

Share price bounced back nicely today. Recent price plunge seemed like an overreaction to news of lower initial distribution following asset sale.

Per etrade earnings to be announced 4/30 after hours

Don't understand why shorts wouldn't have unloaded in the 4's. Do they think a company with no debt, lots of cash and little cash burn (despite huge expense ramp and lousy recent sales results) is going bankrupt? The shorts won their bet that the company would stumble. Doesn't make sense they wouldn't cash in and move on. I'm guessing next short report will show significant decline which is contributing to recent share price increase.

I'm not in any way affiliated with Red Oak or know anybody there. All I know is based on online filings etc so take it FWIW. I was surprised that the initial expected distribution is so low especially given the escrow. But remember that the escrow is for the benefit of the buyer and can't be tapped for any company liabilities. Nothing has changed except that the timing of distributions will be slower than we expected. While anything is possible, I'm not realistically worried that Red Oak is going to inappropriately divert sales proceeds. I'm only a little worried there may be some liabilities we haven't considered beyond transaction fees and taxes.
I think shareholders ultimately will still get proceeds in the .0085--.01 range, it will just be more back ended. I think Red Oak is just being super conservative in case of unexpected liabilities. Also, it could be they're timing distributions over time to spread out the positive impact on their hedge fund returns.

Thanks for your informative posts re valuation. I tend to hold longer but may lighten some after a strong run and reload on a retrace. For POLA I might be tempted if it runs over 7 before earnings. We'll see.

Since in the near term increases in share price probably will be driven by revenue growth and EPS may not impress, any thoughts about how to think about fair value in the coming months? If the share price continues to surge aggressively I might be tempted to lighten up on the expectation of a retrace, but it's hard to time that with no fundamental metric like EPS to gauge whether the share price is getting ahead of itself.

POLA surging again today on strong volume following another conference presentation, a positive SA article and a form of positive revenue guidance described in my prior post below. Also, there's still almost 200,000 shares still short who should be feeling pressure to unwind. Don't think earnings will impress in the near term, but another big sequential jump in quarterly revenue could drive this higher when Q1 is reported (which last year was end of April).

The news of the SA article explains yesterday's good volume and action. We'll see if the broader release today has an additional ripple effect.

Busting a move today on good volume. Finally in the green on this one after much averaging down.

My understanding is that when there's a change of control tax losses don't follow.If the shell is sold "empty" the new owner would not get tax losses. And a third party would only contribute significant new assets to the shell if issued a controlling stake which would also eliminate tax losses.

POLA For those of you who don't follow the POLA board, below is the link to their presentation for March 12 Roth Conference:

https://s21.q4cdn.com/772584186/files/doc_presentations/2018/Polar-Power-Investor-Presentation-March-2018-Final-Roth-PRINTED.pdf

Note in particular the language on page 10:

"Reached a three-year commercial agreement with U.S. Tier-1 wireless carrier customer [This is ATT]

Q4-2017 –This customer generated 45% of net sales and in Q1-2018 = 3X Q4-2017 run rate"

45% of Q4 net sales is $1.8 million and 3X $1.8 is $5.4 million in Q1 net sales just from ATT alone. If so, and you assume the rest of their business stays at a flat $2.2 million in Q1 (same as Q4) then Q1 net sales would total $7.6 million vs. $4 million in Q4.

Recognizing that the term "run rate" is a little squishy, it still looks like POLA is set to announce a big increase in Q1 revenues. Last year they announced Q1 at the end of April.

"Reached a three-year commercial agreement with U.S. Tier-1 wireless carrier customer

Q4-2017 –This customer generated 45% of net sales and in Q1-2018 = 3X Q4-2017 run rate"

45% of Q4 net sales is $1.8 million and 3X $1.8 is $5.4 million in Q1 net sales just from ATT alone. If so, and you assume the rest of their business stays at a flat $2.2 million in Q1 (same as Q4) then Q1 net sales would total $7.6 million.

Am I reading language and doing math correctly?

NAP Bought a shipload at 4.16 average which is 12% yield based on new annual dividend rate of .50. Since they just lowered I'm hoping the stock bounces in the coming weeks or at least the dividend is now sustainable.

POLA--Showing some volume and price momentum recently. Just because they fumbled their revenue ramp doesn't mean they'll never get it together. Q4 was first sequential increase in revenues in several quarters. Last year Q1 was reported at the end of April. Recent bullish volume suggests Q1 revenues will again be sequentially higher. After establishing a pattern of sequential revenue growth, they'll also have to show good margins can generate good earnings.

GE Even further down to new recent lows on an up market day. Guessing many money managers want it off the books at any price by end of March. Could be a good end of Friday trade for a Monday bounce.

PERI Started a position at .785. Even with modest guidance for 2018, seems like a company worth more than $60 million especially with a turnaround CEO minding the store. Never know where the bottom is but hoping we're close.

NAP Cuts dividend and stock gets creamed. I have a little in one of my kid's accounts.

AMS IMO that was another "nothing burger" quarter with no real positive outlook. I would guess management is going to get it on the conference call. They should.

AMS Showing life on a wretched market day. Wonder if it means anything.

ISIG AIRT must have bought mine. I had decent gain on small position so took it given recent market volatility which usually doesn't favor microcaps.

You sound like disgruntled ex employee.

Good volume today and some bullish bidding. Since Q4 revenues were sequentially higher for the first time in a few Q's some may be starting to believe they're getting traction after some wheel spinning.

Bought more today at $4.63 as just have to believe they're building a business worth much more than their $50 million market cap. Last year they PR'd Q1 results on 4/28 so we should be seeing their Q1 results in about 6 weeks.

I'm trying to understand the predictive value of their backlog. An end of Q3 backlog of $1.5 million resulted in $4 million in Q4 or 2.67x backlog at beginning of Q. Backlog was $1.8 million at the end of Q4 which would translate to $4.8 million of Q1 revenue using same multiplier.

While I don't believe a single data point is statistically predictive, I'm wondering more generally whether their timeline from order to shipment is so short that their quarterly revenue consistently will be multiples of their quarter beginning backlog, and their reported backlogs will only reflect a few weeks of revenues.

I bought more today. I just hope they can ramp revenues and get the share price up before there's a serious market correction. I feel they'll eventually pull the pieces together but hope we're not in a bear market that won't reward their ramp up.

I think the trickiest thing about POLA is trying to triangulate earnings given their growing R&D for expanded product offerings and customer customization, industry price compression pressures and the cost structure of their global sales footprint.

If Q1 sales are accelerating not sure why the backlog is only $1.8 million.

Given a very precise $4 million of Q4 revenues, I'm guessing they begged, pleaded and discounted with their active customers to get to it.

POLA Never mind. They laid another egg.

POLA reports after the close. Pick up a few now or at least be ready to acquire after hours!

PCMI Out at 11.35.