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FEIM (9.84) looks attractive, but the backlog is for deliveries spanning 2 to 3 years out, nor is it guaranteed .... it's potential. I doubt margins will hit 40% until the 2nd half of 2024 and 50% seems a stretch. Also I think they mentioned that only smaller orders are expected in the coming months, so the backlog could go into decline.
Small and Microcaps hugely outperforming since 11/10 -
TKR % Change Cur Price Start Price
$RUMIC 19% 709.79 596.29
$RUT 17% 2000.51 1705.32
$SML 17% 1302.22 1114.51
$MID 14% 2770.93 2439.62
$W5KMICRO13% 12424.18 10969.47
$SPXEW 12% 6368.08 5710.26
$DJT 10% 15912.92 14426.49
$RLV 9% 1619.14 1479.35
$DJI 9% 37248.35 34283.1
$DJU 7% 897.16 837.98
$COMP 7% 14761.56 13798.11
$SPX 7% 4719.55 4415.24
$NYFANG 7% 8547.71 8000.01
$NDX 7% 16537.83 15529.12
$RLG 6% 3009.3 2836.64
AVERAGE RETURN = 11%
SSK - so you're going be on the sidelines in cash until we get a major correction ? How big a correction for the S&P500 are you expecting ? And in what timeframe ?
ADFJF - one can buy it online at Ameritrade, but not at Schwab.
RMAX +.81 to 13.20, a hefty 26% gain since I posted the Russell 2000 opportunities list .... the real estate market should perk up in 2024 due to lower mortgage rates and pent up demand and greater willingness of homeowners to sell.
SGOV -.43 to 100.05, is ex-dividend today. They go ex-div 2 weeks early in December.
So why don't you scale into SPXS slowly ?.... 5% to start and then adding if the market continues to rally. Clearly the market is due for a correction, probably within the next few weeks, but I don't think it will be severe. Perhaps 5% to 10%. jmho
But the bulls are stampeding, they're stampeding ! You're missing out.
SPX
S&P500 +29 to 4673, market surges higher after Fed issues dovish statement and keeps rates unchanged -
briefing -
Federal Reserve releases FOMC statement -- Fed keeps rates unchanged at 5.25-5.50%
Recent indicators suggest that growth of economic activity has slowed from its strong pace in the third quarter. Job gains have moderated since earlier in the year but remain strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated.
The U.S. banking system is sound and resilient. Tighter financial and credit conditions for households and businesses are likely to weigh on economic activity, hiring, and inflation. The extent of these effects remains uncertain. The Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks.
The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent. The Committee will continue to assess additional information and its implications for monetary policy. In determining the extent of any additional policy firming that may be appropriate to return inflation to 2 percent over time, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in its previously announced plans. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.
In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.
Fedwatch tool does the probability calculation based on interest rate futures -
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html
Wade - the futures market gives the odds of a hike tomorrow just a 1.6% probability .... I don't know how you come up with these far out ideas, but if you really believe there's a 50% chance of a hike, you can make a quick killing in the futures market if it happens. 60x your bet if they hike.
DRCT hit $7.14 at noon before bouncing back into the $8's. Quite a severe correction from $14+ last week. I just entered some GTC bids in the mid $7's and lower in case there's a retest of today's lows .....
You're right Wade, although I think they'll up their forecasts depending on where the market ends this year ..... I'm guessing a flattish market in 2024, but plenty of undervalued stocks will provide good returns as well as trading opportunities.
SPX
The Reuters Thomson screener is now behind a paywall - evidently it's now Refinitiv Eikon (Subsidiary of London Stock Exchange Group, Formerly Thomson Reuters). Their platform costs $3,600 to $22,000 per year, depending on features. I think FinViz is easily the best free screener on the web.
https://www.wallstreetprep.com/knowledge/bloomberg-vs-capital-iq-vs-factset-vs-thomson-reuters-eikon/
Analysts on average expect about a 7% gain for the S&P500 in 2024 - Goldman expects 6%, about inline with the consensus -
https://www.goldmansachs.com/intelligence/pages/the-sp-500-index-is-forecast-to-return-six-percent.html
https://www.financialsamurai.com/2024-wall-street-forecasts-for-the-sp-500-stock-market/
Wade - SOX you need to check the heavily weighted components first. Like AVGO, INTC, AMD, TXN, NVDA, etc. The top 10 are most of the index. The sub 1% components have little effect.
https://www.nasdaq.com/SOX
Wade is evidently betting against the SOX without knowing the major components. He bought SOXS on Friday with his proceeds from the AAOI sale ....
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=173388165
Wade - you could be right or wrong. I don't have a strong opinion.
SOX
Maybe it's a top, but stocks like NVDA are no longer high PE based on estimates. I own 2 stocks that are in the SOX index - NVDA and MU.
AVGO is leading the SOX higher -
briefing -
Broadcom breaking out to new all-time highs and taking other chip stocks higher along with it; company reported upside Q4 earnings on Friday and guided for FY24 revenue of approximately $50 bln (1012.02 +67.72)
In the core semiconductor solutions segment, AVGO's Q4 revenue increased by 5% to $6.9 bln with CEO Hock Tan commenting that demand was driven by next generation networking technologies as hyperscalers scale out their AI clusters within data centers. AVGO's semiconductor solutions segment lapped very strong growth of 32% in the year-earlier quarter.
AVGO closed on its acquisition of VMWare on November 22, substantially bolstering the cloud software piece of its business. VMW is expected to add about $15 bln in revenue in FY24.
Semiconductor stocks are a notable area of strength today, but SemiCap stocks in particular are standing out with KLA Corp (KLAC), Lam Research (LRCX), and Applied Materials (AMAT) among some of the strongest names in the chip space.
Wade - did you check the major SOX components ? AVGO up 8.4%, INTC up 4.2%, AMD up 3.7%, all heavily weighted in the index ..... surely plenty of others are up over 3% as well. NVDA is weighing down on the index, -2.5%, but that's easily offset by the gainers.
DRCT -.85 to 11.44, thanks for the 10K excerpt. Sounds like significant coverage but they don't state what their paying and what percentage of their a/r are covered.
DRCT accounts receivable insurance would be very expensive if they have full coverage. Do they state what the coverage terms are and what they are paying ? Or is it more smoke and mirrors to obscure the real financial situation ?
FinViz has loads of criteria to filter on, most of which are unavailable on other screeners. Short interest, float, insider and institutional ownership and a myriad of others you won't find on other screeners. I would like them to include more indexes, so that's a weakness, but that can be done as a post filtering process by referencing a list of stocks in the target index.
The OTC screener is very limited - hardly any fundamental criteria to filter on, but at least it generates a list of stocks to review.
https://www.otcmarkets.com/research/stock-screener
This Russell 2000 list was produced by the FinViz screener (Financial Visualization). I think it's easily the best screener on the internet and I've tried loads of them. Lots of fundamental and technical criteria to filter on, custom display, portfolio saving, export into excel, etc. One caveat, like with any screener, the data is not 100% accurate. Some of their database information is outdated or inaccurate. Obviously due diligence must be applied, but it serves as an excellent source of stocks to do research on.
https://finviz.com/screener.ashx
Here's a list of Russell 2000 stocks with forward PEs of under 10 and trading at least 30% below their 52wk highs .... stocks like these are under tax loss selling pressure and could get a bounce when that abates or bargain hunters start buying -
SYM Price Fwd P/E Off 52-Week High Industry
ZD 63.25 9.48 -32.76% Advertising Agencies
ATSG 15.6 9.64 -46.17% Airlines
HBI 3.86 8.49 -56.14% Apparel Manufacturing
PLCE 22.63 8.93 -53.70% Apparel Retail
GCO 30.49 8.97 -40.26% Apparel Retail
SAMG 16.16 9.13 -30.34% Asset Management
ADNT 32.89 7.12 -30.76% Auto Parts
CVGI 6.71 7.86 -43.90% Auto Parts
BCBP 12.04 7.62 -36.76% Banks - Regional
HTLF 35.02 7.66 -31.33% Banks - Regional
NEWT 14.22 7.72 -31.73% Banks - Regional
BANC 12.73 8.19 -30.28% Banks - Regional
SHBI 12.98 8.22 -34.15% Banks - Regional
PFS 16.63 8.23 -32.33% Banks - Regional
MPB 22.85 8.35 -30.76% Banks - Regional
OCFC 15.67 8.95 -37.14% Banks - Regional
CZFS 62.54 9.4 -32.02% Banks - Regional
MOFG 23.78 9.46 -30.55% Banks - Regional
EGBN 26.33 9.81 -46.31% Banks - Regional
HTBK 9.23 9.94 -33.03% Banks - Regional
CTXR 0.85 1.17 -50.03% Biotechnology
AMLX 14 6.45 -66.61% Biotechnology
HRMY 31 9.21 -49.53% Biotechnology
GTN 8.54 2.09 -40.69% Broadcasting
TGNA 15.39 4.32 -30.96% Broadcasting
SSP 7.79 4.36 -51.70% Broadcasting
APLD 6.58 4.46 -43.37% Capital Markets
ASIX 27.14 9.35 -39.11% Chemicals
DZSI 1.41 1.87 -89.52% Communication Equipment
COMM 1.84 2.38 -80.30% Communication Equipment
CMTL 8.79 9.55 -47.90% Communication Equipment
BFH 30.69 3.65 -31.06% Credit Services
GDOT 9.19 4.78 -57.00% Credit Services
RM 23.39 4.83 -38.99% Credit Services
PMTS 17.74 7.49 -61.39% Credit Services
EBS 2.49 2.63 -85.06% Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
PCRX 28.06 8.01 -42.26% Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
ASRT 1.09 8.07 -86.39% Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
PAHC 11.08 9.14 -32.93% Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
CHGG 10.68 8.84 -63.16% Education & Training Services
CHGG 10.68 8.84 -63.16% Education & Training Services
DAKT 8.43 7.33 -32.13% Electronic Components
AMCX 17.92 2.83 -34.74% Entertainment
SBGI 13.35 3.9 -40.43% Entertainment
DBI 8.33 8.19 -38.02% Footwear & Accessories
EVRI 10.52 9.69 -47.00% Gambling
CPSI 10.4 5.66 -67.11% Health Information Services
NUS 17.74 8.37 -61.05% Household & Personal Products
TITN 26.01 5.72 -45.67% Industrial Distribution
IBEX 18.3 7.98 -41.71% Information Technology Services
TTEC 20.26 9.48 -62.62% Information Technology Services
DTC 5.21 5.04 -41.17% Internet Retail
XPOF 10.6 8.38 -68.43% Leisure
MODV 39.14 5.94 -65.52% Medical Care Facilities
MD 9.25 7.09 -46.53% Medical Care Facilities
EMBC 17.9 8.05 -51.15% Medical Instruments & Supplies
CMPO 4.9 4.45 -37.97% Metal Fabrication
RYI 29.49 9.07 -34.03% Metal Fabrication
PTEN 10.85 8.23 -39.25% Oil & Gas Drilling
REI 1.55 2.5 -38.98% Oil & Gas E&P
SBOW 30.55 2.64 -30.49% Oil & Gas E&P
VTLE 42.57 3.4 -32.29% Oil & Gas E&P
REPX 26.36 3.45 -44.84% Oil & Gas E&P
AMPY 5.91 3.54 -42.23% Oil & Gas E&P
CPE 29.98 3.87 -32.61% Oil & Gas E&P
HPK 14.24 5.52 -52.77% Oil & Gas E&P
CRK 8.89 6.17 -44.68% Oil & Gas E&P
GRNT 5.96 6.24 -38.05% Oil & Gas E&P
BRY 6.96 6.87 -30.58% Oil & Gas E&P
EPM 6.09 7.16 -39.76% Oil & Gas E&P
KLXE 9.38 3.89 -48.46% Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
ACDC 7.97 5.67 -69.61% Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
ACDC 7.97 5.67 -69.61% Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
RNGR 10.12 6.19 -30.87% Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
RES 7.04 6.55 -31.82% Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
RES 7.04 6.55 -31.82% Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
TTI 4.31 9.49 -36.33% Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
WKC 20.89 8.94 -31.83% Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
PLL 26.53 3.63 -65.45% Other Industrial Metals & Mining
HLF 14 4.49 -34.36% Packaged Foods
OI 15.36 5.99 -34.83% Packaging & Containers
MED 74.81 9.75 -43.08% Personal Services
RMAX 10.45 7.71 -56.96% Real Estate Services
MCFT 21 8.61 -40.49% Recreational Vehicles
MPX 10.76 8.61 -39.58% Recreational Vehicles
GNL 9.1 6.59 -40.45% REIT - Diversified
IVR 8.37 1.89 -46.19% REIT - Mortgage
ARR 19.1 4.5 -42.77% REIT - Mortgage
CIM 5.09 6.9 -34.83% REIT - Mortgage
PRG 29.55 8.55 -34.05% Rental & Leasing Services
AAN 10.42 9.18 -35.52% Rental & Leasing Services
DIN 49.23 7.62 -40.28% Restaurants
SGH 17.51 7.79 -41.61% Semiconductors
EGHT 3.59 6.97 -44.68% Software - Application
APPS 6.16 8.75 -67.17% Software - Application
RMNI 3.15 9.13 -40.79% Software - Application
CCSI 25.53 4.87 -58.88% Software - Infrastructure
BAND 12 8.54 -58.72% Software - Infrastructure
VRNT 27.98 9.95 -31.26% Software - Infrastructure
LTHM 15.52 8.84 -46.80% Specialty Chemicals
MATV 12.36 9.4 -57.36% Specialty Chemicals
SBH 11.05 5.39 -40.01% Specialty Retail
RBBN 2.16 6.47 -55.37% Telecom Services
ULH 26.3 5.62 -41.56% Trucking
BIPC 32.81 9.65 -31.97% Utilities - Regulated Gas
ARIS 7.7 7.25 -54.33% Utilities - Regulated Water
Plenty of stocks have run but loads of are way below 52wk highs .... this week I added to my positions in OGN, INMD, GTLS, ULH and CHPT, all way below their highs and under tax loss selling pressure.
When I get the time I'll come up with a list of small and microcaps that look like good candidates for a bounce in the new year. I hope others do the same. There are opportunities out there, imho.
S&P500 +17 to 4602, threatening to close over 4600 ..... but the bigger rally has been in the microcaps, outperforming significantly over the past 4 weeks. I would not want to be on the sidelines. Market timing is not for me. There are always undervalued stocks to buy, imho.
SPX
VASO did post EPS of $0.07 for 2022 but that included a big tax benefit. So far they've reported EPS of $0.02 through 9 mos of 2023, so the trailing PE is more like 10, but I didn't check closely. And there will be significant dilution due to the merger.
AAOI +1.84 to 19.50, an amazing run since that brief after hours post earnings dip down to $7.60 on 11/9. Congrats for holding on so long. Most of us would have booked profits much sooner.
VASO - sounds like misinformation - according to the latest 10Q shareholder equity is $25M with 175M shares o/s .... so that's just $0.14 per share equity.
If their info were correct it would be easy to lock in profits be shorting AVHI at $10.80 and buying an equivalent dollar amount of VASO at $0.33.
VASO is actually posting profits, so I corrected my post ..... maybe it's not a basket case ???
AVHI - looks like there've been loads of share redemptions over the past 9 months. Since there's no equity, the only benefit of the merger to VASO shareholders is the uplisting to the Nasdaq but their ownership interest will be diminished.
VASO has 175M shares o/s whereas AVHI has only 3.1M .... so currently at $0.32 VASO has a market cap of $56M and AVHI at $10.85 has a mkt cap of $34M.
We'd need to know the share exchange ratio to better understand the VASO valuation implied by the deal.
Wade - GERN - you've traded in and out of it a lot, so to calculate your true cost basis you'd have to total all the cash flows, positive and negative, for every trade including your initial buy and then divide by your current holding of 58,705 shares. This would be best done on an excel spreadsheet.
Microcaps have been outperforming since Nov 10th -
Index performance since 11/10/23 -
TKR % Change Cur Price Start Price
$RUMIC 11% 662.2 596.29
$W5KMIC 10% 12040.65 10969.47
$RUT 9% 1852.05 1705.32
$SML 8% 1199.2 1114.51
$MID 7% 2606.37 2439.62
$SPXEW 6% 6045.54 5710.26
$DJT 6% 15230.03 14426.49
$DJI 5% 36054.43 34283.1
$DJU 5% 879.33 837.98
$RLV 5% 1548.68 1479.35
$SPX 3% 4549.34 4415.24
$COMP 3% 14146.71 13798.11
$RLG 3% 2907.44 2836.64
$NDX 2% 15788.05 15529.12
$NYFANG 1% 8072 8000.01
AVERAGE RETURN = 5%
Crude Oil now at $69/bbl .... a huge plunge in price from $95 in late September. NatGas prices have also been plunging. Great news for the consumer and the economy, but my O&G stocks are not liking it ! I may be selling them for tax loss purposes.
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/06/oil-prices-fall-on-china-concerns-skepticism-on-opec-cuts.html
CPE, VTLE
I posted this link back in October - we'll see how it plays out.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=173108135&txt2find=mho
MHO, CCS
ACRS +.03 to 1.02, if it stays around these levels, I'll roll over my covered calls at expiration next Friday ..... so I'm glad it's not up more, but clearly the news leaked out ahead the announcement.