Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Wade is evidently betting against the SOX without knowing the major components. He bought SOXS on Friday with his proceeds from the AAOI sale ....
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=173388165
Wade - you could be right or wrong. I don't have a strong opinion.
SOX
Maybe it's a top, but stocks like NVDA are no longer high PE based on estimates. I own 2 stocks that are in the SOX index - NVDA and MU.
AVGO is leading the SOX higher -
briefing -
Broadcom breaking out to new all-time highs and taking other chip stocks higher along with it; company reported upside Q4 earnings on Friday and guided for FY24 revenue of approximately $50 bln (1012.02 +67.72)
In the core semiconductor solutions segment, AVGO's Q4 revenue increased by 5% to $6.9 bln with CEO Hock Tan commenting that demand was driven by next generation networking technologies as hyperscalers scale out their AI clusters within data centers. AVGO's semiconductor solutions segment lapped very strong growth of 32% in the year-earlier quarter.
AVGO closed on its acquisition of VMWare on November 22, substantially bolstering the cloud software piece of its business. VMW is expected to add about $15 bln in revenue in FY24.
Semiconductor stocks are a notable area of strength today, but SemiCap stocks in particular are standing out with KLA Corp (KLAC), Lam Research (LRCX), and Applied Materials (AMAT) among some of the strongest names in the chip space.
Wade - did you check the major SOX components ? AVGO up 8.4%, INTC up 4.2%, AMD up 3.7%, all heavily weighted in the index ..... surely plenty of others are up over 3% as well. NVDA is weighing down on the index, -2.5%, but that's easily offset by the gainers.
DRCT -.85 to 11.44, thanks for the 10K excerpt. Sounds like significant coverage but they don't state what their paying and what percentage of their a/r are covered.
DRCT accounts receivable insurance would be very expensive if they have full coverage. Do they state what the coverage terms are and what they are paying ? Or is it more smoke and mirrors to obscure the real financial situation ?
FinViz has loads of criteria to filter on, most of which are unavailable on other screeners. Short interest, float, insider and institutional ownership and a myriad of others you won't find on other screeners. I would like them to include more indexes, so that's a weakness, but that can be done as a post filtering process by referencing a list of stocks in the target index.
The OTC screener is very limited - hardly any fundamental criteria to filter on, but at least it generates a list of stocks to review.
https://www.otcmarkets.com/research/stock-screener
This Russell 2000 list was produced by the FinViz screener (Financial Visualization). I think it's easily the best screener on the internet and I've tried loads of them. Lots of fundamental and technical criteria to filter on, custom display, portfolio saving, export into excel, etc. One caveat, like with any screener, the data is not 100% accurate. Some of their database information is outdated or inaccurate. Obviously due diligence must be applied, but it serves as an excellent source of stocks to do research on.
https://finviz.com/screener.ashx
Here's a list of Russell 2000 stocks with forward PEs of under 10 and trading at least 30% below their 52wk highs .... stocks like these are under tax loss selling pressure and could get a bounce when that abates or bargain hunters start buying -
SYM Price Fwd P/E Off 52-Week High Industry
ZD 63.25 9.48 -32.76% Advertising Agencies
ATSG 15.6 9.64 -46.17% Airlines
HBI 3.86 8.49 -56.14% Apparel Manufacturing
PLCE 22.63 8.93 -53.70% Apparel Retail
GCO 30.49 8.97 -40.26% Apparel Retail
SAMG 16.16 9.13 -30.34% Asset Management
ADNT 32.89 7.12 -30.76% Auto Parts
CVGI 6.71 7.86 -43.90% Auto Parts
BCBP 12.04 7.62 -36.76% Banks - Regional
HTLF 35.02 7.66 -31.33% Banks - Regional
NEWT 14.22 7.72 -31.73% Banks - Regional
BANC 12.73 8.19 -30.28% Banks - Regional
SHBI 12.98 8.22 -34.15% Banks - Regional
PFS 16.63 8.23 -32.33% Banks - Regional
MPB 22.85 8.35 -30.76% Banks - Regional
OCFC 15.67 8.95 -37.14% Banks - Regional
CZFS 62.54 9.4 -32.02% Banks - Regional
MOFG 23.78 9.46 -30.55% Banks - Regional
EGBN 26.33 9.81 -46.31% Banks - Regional
HTBK 9.23 9.94 -33.03% Banks - Regional
CTXR 0.85 1.17 -50.03% Biotechnology
AMLX 14 6.45 -66.61% Biotechnology
HRMY 31 9.21 -49.53% Biotechnology
GTN 8.54 2.09 -40.69% Broadcasting
TGNA 15.39 4.32 -30.96% Broadcasting
SSP 7.79 4.36 -51.70% Broadcasting
APLD 6.58 4.46 -43.37% Capital Markets
ASIX 27.14 9.35 -39.11% Chemicals
DZSI 1.41 1.87 -89.52% Communication Equipment
COMM 1.84 2.38 -80.30% Communication Equipment
CMTL 8.79 9.55 -47.90% Communication Equipment
BFH 30.69 3.65 -31.06% Credit Services
GDOT 9.19 4.78 -57.00% Credit Services
RM 23.39 4.83 -38.99% Credit Services
PMTS 17.74 7.49 -61.39% Credit Services
EBS 2.49 2.63 -85.06% Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
PCRX 28.06 8.01 -42.26% Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
ASRT 1.09 8.07 -86.39% Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
PAHC 11.08 9.14 -32.93% Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
CHGG 10.68 8.84 -63.16% Education & Training Services
CHGG 10.68 8.84 -63.16% Education & Training Services
DAKT 8.43 7.33 -32.13% Electronic Components
AMCX 17.92 2.83 -34.74% Entertainment
SBGI 13.35 3.9 -40.43% Entertainment
DBI 8.33 8.19 -38.02% Footwear & Accessories
EVRI 10.52 9.69 -47.00% Gambling
CPSI 10.4 5.66 -67.11% Health Information Services
NUS 17.74 8.37 -61.05% Household & Personal Products
TITN 26.01 5.72 -45.67% Industrial Distribution
IBEX 18.3 7.98 -41.71% Information Technology Services
TTEC 20.26 9.48 -62.62% Information Technology Services
DTC 5.21 5.04 -41.17% Internet Retail
XPOF 10.6 8.38 -68.43% Leisure
MODV 39.14 5.94 -65.52% Medical Care Facilities
MD 9.25 7.09 -46.53% Medical Care Facilities
EMBC 17.9 8.05 -51.15% Medical Instruments & Supplies
CMPO 4.9 4.45 -37.97% Metal Fabrication
RYI 29.49 9.07 -34.03% Metal Fabrication
PTEN 10.85 8.23 -39.25% Oil & Gas Drilling
REI 1.55 2.5 -38.98% Oil & Gas E&P
SBOW 30.55 2.64 -30.49% Oil & Gas E&P
VTLE 42.57 3.4 -32.29% Oil & Gas E&P
REPX 26.36 3.45 -44.84% Oil & Gas E&P
AMPY 5.91 3.54 -42.23% Oil & Gas E&P
CPE 29.98 3.87 -32.61% Oil & Gas E&P
HPK 14.24 5.52 -52.77% Oil & Gas E&P
CRK 8.89 6.17 -44.68% Oil & Gas E&P
GRNT 5.96 6.24 -38.05% Oil & Gas E&P
BRY 6.96 6.87 -30.58% Oil & Gas E&P
EPM 6.09 7.16 -39.76% Oil & Gas E&P
KLXE 9.38 3.89 -48.46% Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
ACDC 7.97 5.67 -69.61% Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
ACDC 7.97 5.67 -69.61% Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
RNGR 10.12 6.19 -30.87% Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
RES 7.04 6.55 -31.82% Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
RES 7.04 6.55 -31.82% Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
TTI 4.31 9.49 -36.33% Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
WKC 20.89 8.94 -31.83% Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
PLL 26.53 3.63 -65.45% Other Industrial Metals & Mining
HLF 14 4.49 -34.36% Packaged Foods
OI 15.36 5.99 -34.83% Packaging & Containers
MED 74.81 9.75 -43.08% Personal Services
RMAX 10.45 7.71 -56.96% Real Estate Services
MCFT 21 8.61 -40.49% Recreational Vehicles
MPX 10.76 8.61 -39.58% Recreational Vehicles
GNL 9.1 6.59 -40.45% REIT - Diversified
IVR 8.37 1.89 -46.19% REIT - Mortgage
ARR 19.1 4.5 -42.77% REIT - Mortgage
CIM 5.09 6.9 -34.83% REIT - Mortgage
PRG 29.55 8.55 -34.05% Rental & Leasing Services
AAN 10.42 9.18 -35.52% Rental & Leasing Services
DIN 49.23 7.62 -40.28% Restaurants
SGH 17.51 7.79 -41.61% Semiconductors
EGHT 3.59 6.97 -44.68% Software - Application
APPS 6.16 8.75 -67.17% Software - Application
RMNI 3.15 9.13 -40.79% Software - Application
CCSI 25.53 4.87 -58.88% Software - Infrastructure
BAND 12 8.54 -58.72% Software - Infrastructure
VRNT 27.98 9.95 -31.26% Software - Infrastructure
LTHM 15.52 8.84 -46.80% Specialty Chemicals
MATV 12.36 9.4 -57.36% Specialty Chemicals
SBH 11.05 5.39 -40.01% Specialty Retail
RBBN 2.16 6.47 -55.37% Telecom Services
ULH 26.3 5.62 -41.56% Trucking
BIPC 32.81 9.65 -31.97% Utilities - Regulated Gas
ARIS 7.7 7.25 -54.33% Utilities - Regulated Water
Plenty of stocks have run but loads of are way below 52wk highs .... this week I added to my positions in OGN, INMD, GTLS, ULH and CHPT, all way below their highs and under tax loss selling pressure.
When I get the time I'll come up with a list of small and microcaps that look like good candidates for a bounce in the new year. I hope others do the same. There are opportunities out there, imho.
S&P500 +17 to 4602, threatening to close over 4600 ..... but the bigger rally has been in the microcaps, outperforming significantly over the past 4 weeks. I would not want to be on the sidelines. Market timing is not for me. There are always undervalued stocks to buy, imho.
SPX
VASO did post EPS of $0.07 for 2022 but that included a big tax benefit. So far they've reported EPS of $0.02 through 9 mos of 2023, so the trailing PE is more like 10, but I didn't check closely. And there will be significant dilution due to the merger.
AAOI +1.84 to 19.50, an amazing run since that brief after hours post earnings dip down to $7.60 on 11/9. Congrats for holding on so long. Most of us would have booked profits much sooner.
VASO - sounds like misinformation - according to the latest 10Q shareholder equity is $25M with 175M shares o/s .... so that's just $0.14 per share equity.
If their info were correct it would be easy to lock in profits be shorting AVHI at $10.80 and buying an equivalent dollar amount of VASO at $0.33.
VASO is actually posting profits, so I corrected my post ..... maybe it's not a basket case ???
AVHI - looks like there've been loads of share redemptions over the past 9 months. Since there's no equity, the only benefit of the merger to VASO shareholders is the uplisting to the Nasdaq but their ownership interest will be diminished.
VASO has 175M shares o/s whereas AVHI has only 3.1M .... so currently at $0.32 VASO has a market cap of $56M and AVHI at $10.85 has a mkt cap of $34M.
We'd need to know the share exchange ratio to better understand the VASO valuation implied by the deal.
Wade - GERN - you've traded in and out of it a lot, so to calculate your true cost basis you'd have to total all the cash flows, positive and negative, for every trade including your initial buy and then divide by your current holding of 58,705 shares. This would be best done on an excel spreadsheet.
Microcaps have been outperforming since Nov 10th -
Index performance since 11/10/23 -
TKR % Change Cur Price Start Price
$RUMIC 11% 662.2 596.29
$W5KMIC 10% 12040.65 10969.47
$RUT 9% 1852.05 1705.32
$SML 8% 1199.2 1114.51
$MID 7% 2606.37 2439.62
$SPXEW 6% 6045.54 5710.26
$DJT 6% 15230.03 14426.49
$DJI 5% 36054.43 34283.1
$DJU 5% 879.33 837.98
$RLV 5% 1548.68 1479.35
$SPX 3% 4549.34 4415.24
$COMP 3% 14146.71 13798.11
$RLG 3% 2907.44 2836.64
$NDX 2% 15788.05 15529.12
$NYFANG 1% 8072 8000.01
AVERAGE RETURN = 5%
Crude Oil now at $69/bbl .... a huge plunge in price from $95 in late September. NatGas prices have also been plunging. Great news for the consumer and the economy, but my O&G stocks are not liking it ! I may be selling them for tax loss purposes.
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/06/oil-prices-fall-on-china-concerns-skepticism-on-opec-cuts.html
CPE, VTLE
I posted this link back in October - we'll see how it plays out.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=173108135&txt2find=mho
MHO, CCS
ACRS +.03 to 1.02, if it stays around these levels, I'll roll over my covered calls at expiration next Friday ..... so I'm glad it's not up more, but clearly the news leaked out ahead the announcement.
Mortgage rates will have to fall a lot further for homeowners to be broadly willing to exchange their 3% mortgage rate for the current rate .... also the sense I've gotten is that the high rates have merely been less of a headwind for homebuilders, not a tailwind .... I continue to be overweight the sector.
Here's commentary from the TOL PR -
“As we approach the start of the spring selling season in January, we are encouraged by the recent 75 basis point drop in mortgage rates. With resale inventories at historic lows, buyers continue to be drawn to new homes, and we expect lower rates with lower inflation to add to this already solid demand. Our strategy of broadening our home offerings to include lower price points, coupled with our focus on increasing our supply of spec homes and growing our community count, has positioned us well for this market. At the end of fiscal 2023, we were operating from 370 communities, up from 348 at year-end 2022. We plan to further increase community count by approximately 10% in fiscal 2024.
“Over the long-term, the outlook for the new home market remains bright, supported by favorable demographics, the supply-demand imbalance that has resulted from over a decade of underproduction, and the aging of the country’s existing housing stock. With our industry-leading luxury brand, Toll Brothers is well positioned to capitalize on these trends. Our strong balance sheet, low leverage, and ample liquidity, including significant projected cash flows from operations in fiscal 2024, should allow us to continue investing in our business while returning cash to shareholders well into the future.”
MHO, CCS, BZH
TOL +3.76 to 90.97, a new all time high after posting strong Oct Q4 results .... homebuilders have had a great year but still look cheap in view of falling mortgage rates -
briefing -
Toll Brothers beats by $0.39, beats on revs, guides for Q1 deliveries of 1,800-1,900 units, FY24 deliveries of 9,850-10,350 units (87.21 0.00) :
Reports Q4 (Oct) earnings of $4.11 per share, $0.39 better than the FactSet Consensus of $3.72; revenues fell 18.6% year/year to $3.02 bln vs the $2.78 bln FactSet Consensus.
Delivered homes were 2,755, down 27%, above its guidance of 2,650-2,750 units.
Adjusted home sales gross margin, which excludes interest and inventory write-downs, was 29.1%, compared to FY 2022's fourth quarter adjusted home sales gross margin of 29.0%.
Guidance: For Q1, TOL sees deliveries of 1,800-1,900 units, adj. home sales gross margin of 28.0%, and average delivered price per home of $985,000-$1,005,000. For FY24, sees deliveries of 9,850-10,350, adj. home sales gross margin of 27.9%, average delivered price per home of $940,000-$960,000.
ACRS +.15 to 1.13 after hours on news of a licensing agreement. Now up 76% from your post a mere 3 weeks ago. Thanks again for the alert. I own a bunch of shares but all have covered calls at a $1 strike so that will cap my gains, but still a great return.
WAYNE, Pa., Dec. 05, 2023 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Aclaris Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ: ACRS), a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on developing novel drugs for immuno-inflammatory diseases, today announced an exclusive patent license agreement with Sun Pharmaceutical Industries, Inc. (Sun Pharma).
Under the license agreement, Aclaris granted Sun Pharma exclusive rights under certain patents for the use of deuruxolitinib, Sun Pharma’s JAK inhibitor, or other isotopic forms of ruxolitinib, to treat alopecia areata (AA) or androgenetic alopecia (AGA). The agreement includes an upfront payment of $15 million, regulatory and commercial milestones, and royalties. Aclaris exclusively licenses the patents from a third party, and has separate contractual obligations under which it owes a portion of the consideration received from Sun Pharma.
“We are pleased to announce this patent license agreement with Sun Pharma, which represents our second out-license for this patent portfolio,” stated James Loerop, Chief Business Officer of Aclaris.
CVS - true, which is why I roll over weekly options and make decent profits even when the stock is flat over time .... I do the same with PYPL which I like better because the option premiums are higher.
People usually don't like to switch platforms. I don't use Schwab's streamer, but evidently they feel ThinkorSwim has superior features, otherwise they wouldn't switch. I'm surprised they're not keeping both though, since being forced to switch platforms will annoy a lot of customers.
Here's the ToS user manual -
https://tlc.thinkorswim.com/center/howToTos/thinkManual
Ameritrade
Wade - CVS +2.73 to 71.21, was overpriced a year ago at $100+ but has been a decent performer the past 6 months .... I've got a small position that I've been hedging with weekly covered calls, so my cost basis is down to the low $60's despite buying my first shares at around $74 in March. So it's been a modest winner for me.
GERN on the other hand is one you have been touting constantly since $3 in early January. It's now around $1.90, down nearly 40% despite a solid year for the broader market. If they don't get FDA approval next June the stock will plunge below $1. Management dumps their shares every time they become vested - not exactly a sign of confidence. And of course they burn lots of cash and constantly issue more shares as they are doing now. And it's also under tax loss selling pressure. Maybe it gets a bounce in January, but I'll be surprised if it gets beyond the low $2's. Good luck.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=170866009&txt2find=gern
Wade: are you referring to GERN or CVS ? GERN is now $1.88 down nearly 50% from mid June .... CVS is up around 7% from the June lows and pays a decent dividend.
CVS is a value play at this price and seems to have bottomed, but I see the upside as limited, perhaps $80 is fair value. At least one gets a dividend.
GERN was a very poor choice in the biotech sector. GERN will be lucky to get to breakeven in 2025. It's a money losing dilution machine and no wonder that it's performing so poorly.
CVS (68.48) hikes dividend and guides for EPS of $8.50 in 2024 -
DJ -
CVS Health stock was rising Tuesday after the retail pharmacy provided
fiscal 2024 revenue guidance above estimates, and announced plans to improve
its pharmacy business.
CVS said Tuesday it is expecting fiscal 2024 earnings of $8.50 a share on
revenue of $366 billion. Analysts surveyed by FactSet had expected fiscal
2024 earnings of $8.51 a share on revenue of $344.5 billion.
CVS also increased its quarterly dividend by 10% to 66.5 cents, payable
Feb. 1 to shareholders of record on Jan. 22.
This upbeat revenue guidance and higher dividend comes as the company
also announced updates to its pharmacy business. This includes the
introduction of CVS CostVantage, an update of the traditional
pharmacy-reimburse model, and TrueCost, which is intended to simplify the
cost of drug prescriptions. Both are expected to launch in 2025.
CVS stock was rising 3% in premarket trading Tuesday to $70.50. Coming
into the session, the stock has dropped 27% this year.
GCT +.90 to 12.70 also having a good day despite it being a China stock with dubious financials. However it's great to see small and microcaps continuing to outperform the large caps for a change !
The rally has broadened significantly in recent weeks .... the small and microcaps have been big laggards this year and have a lot of catching up to do. That's starting to happen. The Russell is up 2.3% today while the S&P is up only 0.4%. I hope this trend continues !
It's noteworthy that the S&P Equal Weight is up a modest 5% YTD and the Russell Microcap Index is down a miserable 6% while NYFANG is up a monstrous 85% !
YTD -
TKR % Change Cur Price Start Price
$NYFANG 85% 8243.35 4448.07
$NDX 46% 15947.87 10939.76
$COMP 36% 14226.22 10466.48
$RLG 35% 2923.53 2158.19
$SPX 19% 4567.8 3839.5
$DJT 12% 15018.51 13391.91
$DJI 8% 35950.89 33147.25
$MID 5% 2563.62 2430.38
$SPXEW 5% 6003.2 5739.53
$RLV 3% 1547.04 1497.12
$RUT 3% 1809.02 1761.25
$SML 1% 1170.66 1157.53
$IXBT 0% 0 0
$RUMIC -6% 640.55 678.57
$NBITR -7% 4144.85 4474.26
$NBI -8% 3874.07 4213.13
$BTK -8% 4852.39 5281.1
$W5KMICRO-8% 11621.79 12683.47
$DJU -10% 866.76 967.4
AAOI +1.87 to 15.12, nice trading.
MINM -.86 to 3.62, anyone who shorted yesterday at around $10 has a 63% profit even after the 1% per day borrow fee .... but surely it was impossible to borrow shares. Even now IB has no shares available despite the astronomic borrow rate of 315% annualized.
GCT +1.58 to 11.30, I think it's a scam but am trading it anyway .... obviously just a very small <1% position. Way too speculative for anything more than that. If it stays volatile, then I'll be booking profits. Right now I'm bidding $10.05 and asking $11.45 .....
GCT +1.36 to 11.04, I'm trading it .... grabbed a few in the low $10's and already flipped some in the high $10's .... the volatility is great for trading and the short attack concern has been diminished since it already happened to little effect ! It's a likely scam but traders don't seem to care.
Wade - AAOI - the old bonds were also convertible and are being replaced, so aside from the lower conversion price there's little difference than before.
AAOI +.59 to 13.84, I was expecting about 2% to 3% dilution from new shares, but it's only a bit over 1%. On the other hand the lower conversion price means that will more quickly and significantly increase the fully diluted share count which occurs when the share price rises above the conversion price.