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Moras, thanks for the explanation.
Maybe restricted shares are issued with an "expiry date" of say 12 months, when they automatically join the float?
Mike
You will need to prioritize. They will not be willing to accept a long list of questions from one person.
Mik
I feel that at least questions 4,5 and 6 are too historical for this conference call, in which they will want to focus on the future.
Dr B : the planned American military base in Niger should provide some reassurance on the security front.
biglued:
Marty replied to that effect to a member of this board not long ago but I can't locate that posting I'm afraid.
The PR of October 8th implied the same thing: "....currently over half of the tractors and trailers have received the required signed contract and agreement for the down payment; therefore, the criteria has yet to be fully met but the entire project is well on its way."
Mike: good idea, here's one question :
Why does the Niger contract have to be all or nothing? Why can't they negotiate with the other parties so that they all go ahead right now with the smaller amount that is already supported by local supplier contracts? Then while fulfilling that partial project they can follow up on the remaining local supplier contracts. In any case it's a good strategy to start small and gain experience.
I don't think Lee has sold any of those shares yet, the volume has been much too low. In his shoes I would aim high, i.e. generate real new business in the international sphere, rather than make a few bucks through a swindle on the market.
James: as I'm sure you are aware, AMMX are dealers for Terex and others, so have a lot of relevant experience.
Thank you James and Moras for your excellent contributions, restoring some grown-up dignity and information to this debate. The continuing delays on Niger are bound to unnerve investors, especially since AMMX has disappointed more than once in the past. I believe that this time it really is different, and that they will find a way through to a successful completion. The experience should then enable them to move forward on a more professional footing. Worth hanging on to their shares.
Mik: I find everything they have said and done over the last few years to be plausible:
- their failures arose from general economic conditions or inexperience in seeking international business.
- Their over-optimistic PRs are better understood as naïve than deliberately misleading.
- Their failure to complete SEC audit was reasonably explained as due to very small cash resources better devoted to getting more business.
The alternative explanation, a prolonged criminal conspiracy, conducted with little apparent success and in public view, seems much less likely.
One test of bona fides is through third parties. For instance Terex's website lists Hamre Equipment as one of their dealers. I assume that Terex, a well-known listed company, have done their own DD and consider Hamre to be a respectable client.
Mik : do please put exactly that question to Mr Hamre at the conference call. Otherwise it just seems like slander/libel.
I took advantage today too and bought some more shares, though I already had way too many.
I believe that history repeats itself:
December 2013, SP sank to .0015 under pressure from a very large panic seller.
April 2014, four months later, SP rose to .045, thirty times higher.
November 2014, SP sinks to .013 under pressure from who knows what.
March 2015, four months later, SP will obviously rise to .39, thirty times higher.
QED!
I remain fully-invested and fully-optimistic.
Ref float: I would expect at least 50% of issued shares to be firmly held in family hands, so at max the effective float could rise to about 330m. If that happens and:
1. No Niger contract: carnage.
2. Niger contract, follow-up contracts, publicity, uplisting: new investors will easily take up the slack and the share price will rocket.
Just my view!
At $7 I will treat everyone to a weekend in Vegas.
Moras: I take your point. However I also agree with you that in the long run the SP will reflect the fundamentals, regardless of insider selling.
This board has deteriorated of late, just a lot of hot air instead of real research and information on the company and its business. At least that's what I'm looking for.
I think it's very unlikely that insiders are dumping shares at the moment because
1. Turnover continues to be very low compared to say last December.
2. Good news coming.
There's no need for conspiracy theories to explain the low share price. AMMX is guilty of years of over-optimistic PRs, and investors understandably doubt that it is different this time. In fact I believe that this time it IS different as there is an unprecedented weight of convincing detail absent in the past. So I continue to hold, and recommend others to do the same. Current share price accurately reflects traditional business, with no premium built in for possible Niger contract. That's a very safe bet for an investor.
Moras: thanks for your wise advice. I am about the same age as you, but in respect of AMMX I am at the far optimistic end of the spectrum, and see a very rare opportunity to make a great deal of money, if things turn out as I hope. In some games e.g. bridge you can look at the cards you hold and realize that there is only one configuration of the cards held against you that will enable you to win, so you play exactly as if that is the way the cards ARE held. Play any other way and you will lose anyway. That's how I view AMMX : invest at the level that will make you a fortune if things turn out as you hope. I realize that it's a high risk strategy and not for everyone!
I've been buying AMMX for five years now and have built up a large stake still showing a good profit on my average price. I think it likely that the Niger deal will happen and will lead to further large deals.
I have no information on the timing of restricted shares joining the float, but even if float reached 600million shares I would expect the market price to settle in due course at a level that properly reflected the company's profits and prospects. In a year or two it could reach a dollar or more, who knows? The management team is full of energy, they are very large shareholders themselves and presumably they want to be rich as much as we do.
Mik: Thanks for the excellent summary. It is precisely that delicious uncertainty that makes AMMX so cheap and such an exciting speculation. Anyone who prefers a safer bet should invest in Exxon or Caterpillar.
In expecting more and more detail from AMMX I think we underestimate the importance of privacy in the competitive context. If a company explains everything in public before a deal is concluded it opens the door to the competition. I for one feel that AMMX tends to make too much information public for its own good.
What about IR's business licence? Do you have information you would like to share with the board?
We should all try to be patient for a little longer. I would be very surprised if some sort of Niger deal isn't concluded, after all the time and effort invested by Ameramex, the government of Niger, the Chinese supplier, the local Niger companies, the lenders. It is in all of their interests that this project go through, even if only at the 50% level. I know that it has been said that it's all or nothing, but my experience is that any contract can be amended or renegotiated. Maybe margins would be a bit lower for lower volume, but the project should still be profitable for AMMX.
Maybe there are private Niger companies that realize it's an all-or-nothing deal and are holding out for a sweetener before signing.
Gotoken I agree with you, Marty must be fed up with nervous investors who keep pestering her. She will surely issue a PR when there is significant news.
An excellent strategy!
Maybe for some people, and there could be a lot of them, Africa means Ebola and they would rather steer clear altogether. We know better, but the PR needs to be very accurate and professional when the big moment comes.
Thanks JDoggs for that useful update, seems that things are moving along steadily.
I agree 100% Ivory. I'm waiting for the final funding announcement from AMMX which I assume will be accompanied by an official statement from the government of Niger and maybe from the Chinese suppliers. Until then all is just hot air.
The only beef that I have with AMMX is that their PRs tend to be too optimistic, especially on timetables that they don't control. Marty admitted as much in her response to a recent enquiry. They are entering a new field of business, much bigger and more complicated than what they are used to, and are making some beginner's mistakes. A sensible investor will take all that into account and buy or sell the shares accordingly. My view is that potential gains far outweigh the currently small downside risk.
I have been a shareholder of AMMX for 5 years and have experienced several disappointments. Their latest PR had an ambiguous tone that made me feel a bit nervous. However Lee and his directors have every reason to make the company succeed both in Niger and in its traditional business and are showing a lot of energy and commitment. It's obvious to me that their interests and mine coincide, i.e let's make some money and by the way help a poor country to develop. So I am not selling any of my (large) shareholding.
436 million restricted shares remain, though a lot are presumably closely held by directors and family and unlikely to come on the market for a while.
I emailed Marty yesterday as well, simply congratulating AMMX management team on their splendid efforts.
I don't need convincing myself, but when the funding is confirmed I would expect a public announcement from the government of Niger. That would attract new investors - up to now all the news has come from AMMX.
I think quite a lot of restricted shares will be joining the float between now and the end of the year, though presumably a lot of those will stay in long-term hands.