Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
One thing for sure if plasibo rate turns out to be 5.9 or higher, we are golden.
I disagree. If you ever want to make money on this investment pray for RI to meet PE and SE.
Only this will give label change, wide insurance coverage, BP and medical community attention needed to realize blockbaster potential.
This issue surfaced many years ago even before V approval. I believe the consensus was to blame DHA and oxidation.
I didn't say that. What I said V won't get label change from FDA if PE RRR comes <15%.
JL,
I respectfully disagree. The way I see it, if RI PE RRR comes below 15%. FDA will tell Amarin the trial did not meet it's primary objective of reducing CVD risk at least 15%, so no label change for you. But you still have your 1A win so go ahead and advertise RI results to docs. Good luck and bye bye.
Raf,
That's why I said "conservative" and added that I think it will be higher.
As an investor I don't want to be less concervative with estimates than the company. Especially if my money are on the line. lol
Raf,
5.2 is what the company used in trial design down from 5.9.
JL,
ADCOM! If trial doesn't meet it's primary goal which is 15% RRR. Forget about FDA granting Amarin label change.
All what they would say. We knew it! Fish oil doesn't work!
Sam,
How about GL numbers? Were they also underreported?
Based on everything I've read about RI. I think a conservative estimate should look like this.
Composite - 4.8
Plasibo - 5.2
RRR - 15.4
But that's conservative numbers. The actual RRR should be higher. Probably in 20s.
JL,
My point is if PE RRR is less than 15% FDA won't approve V label change with CVD language. Obviously Amarin still can communicate RI results to docs but that won't be same as having CVD reduction on label.
You're wrong. If RI shows <15% RRR, the trial will be officially considered as failed meaning no label change from FDA.
By "game over" I meant instant drop ~50% or more and slow bleed to pennies over several years. No future prospects.
35% RRR looks awesome. I think it will be in 20s though.
RRR less than 15% = Game Over
I'm few years younger than you are.
Crapanova was a packet change for AZN. They obviously didn't even bother to do any DD on this.
Invest,
If that's the case then Raf has the least shares between five of us.
Raf,
You need to step up the game! lol jk:)
Y,
You have no idea how big pharma operates. They always prefer a proven product with solid trial results vs. unknown stuff that yet to be tested and approved by FDA.
If RI is successful V will be an ideal product to aquire because all leg work will be already done.
CaptBeer holds twice as many shares as Raf and JL combined. Interesting.
Raf,
$30 is possible but it will take time and a lot of things go right. The quickest way to get there is a bidding war.
I agree borderline successful results might not get PPS over $7. I also disagree that PPS will drop to under $1 if RI fails. IMO opinion more like $1.5-$2.
jfmcrr, no doubt you can make good money on options. But options are not investment they are a hedgeing instrument. That's all.
Yes, but even with good RI results MM could try to suppress the PPS keeping it under $7 for some time until options expire and big guys load. They will certainly try to shake retail longs out spreading rumors about inevitable dilution, FDA not approving new label, and God knows what else.
If you want to play options go 50/50 between stock and options.
The problem with options they expire and those who print them have all inetrest in the world to make them expire worthless.
$50 in January isn't happening. $15 would be great.
sts, send investopidea your concerns on their accuracy.
https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/033115/what-difference-between-biotechnology-company-and-pharmaceutical-company.asp
Oneragman, the company was definitely pumping sending newsless PRs on RI being almost done. I think AFs tweet helped too bringing day traders.
In any case management wanted to dilute ahead of RI and they did.
Raf,
FFS is correct. News do leak on WS and quite often you can see it in trades. You weren't here when we witnessed a large and very profitable put option trade one day before ADCOM docs were released. Someone made a lot of money on that out of money trade. Obviously retail investors are always the last ones to find out. But paying attention to the way stock and especially options trade could give you a clue of what's coming. Not always though.
Noelan,
So you know the difference.
"While biotechnology and pharmaceutical companies both produce medicine, biotechnology companies' drugs have a biological basis, while those of pharmaceutical companies have a chemical basis. Biotechnology companies use live organisms or their products, such as bacteria or enzymes, to manufacture their medicines."
Noelan,
Don't compare Amarin executives with me. Compare them against other successful Bio executives who actually delivered to their shareholders.
How much money they made you so far on your investment in AMRN? Probably nothing. How much they packeted? Millions. Because they are in the business to make money for themselves. New house, boat. Please.
I truly hope for the sake of all longs this will change with RI results and longs will finally get their reward.
GL!
Raf, I hope you realize there will be a time gap between positive RI results and FDA label approval. That's the time to raise money at much higher PPS, increase inventory, and run commercials. Not now when they don't even know RI results.
Dude, you are delusional. They raised money now for the same exact reason they diluted ahead of ADCOM which is risk management in case things go sideways.
Raf, I said possibly. I should have added as a spec. gamble.
How you know Ketchum is buying a house/boat? Did he tell you that? And why wouldn't he wait a few more months for RI results and buy a much nicer house/boat? lol
The company had enough cash and did not need to dilute before RI results. Diluting now was simply a risk management decision on their part.
I sold half before ADCOM, bought a ton under $1, sold @$3, bought again under $2, sold @$3.60. Bought last December @$3.08 sold @$4.25. Last month bought @$3, holding for the run-up, possibly RI results.
So I am actually doing something.
Rose, next to zero if you talk about buying with their own money.
Raf,
I read his post and agree with it for the most part except for "sold a small portion". One executive sold all his shares the other sold 2/3. If you compare to the the total amount of shares all Insiders hold that's not a lot but that's not the point.
Red flags.
Amarin mgmt offloaded shares right after V approval while telling investors about three options.
Dilution ahead of ADCOM.
No stop at 2nd interim that Amarin asked for way after the trial started.
Unnecessary dilution and insider selling ahead of RI results.
This tells me that management isn't confident in RI results.
Does this mean RI will fail? Of course not! But nothing is garanteed.
Raf, you obviously wasn't around when executives executed planned sale right after V approval, packeting millions. Yes, it was a planned sale. They planned it right after meeting with FDA when FDA told them no NCE. Investors got that news many months later when it was already too late for many as they were trapped.
Now I'll ask you again why executives especially a head of R&D are selling now ahead of RI results? Because it's a planned sale and that was the plan to sell before RI results out?
Just to be clear. I don't think these sales are indication of bad RI results. But knowing and trading AMARIN for many years I learned to do not ignore red flags and it's been working great for me.
Yeah just like auto sells by Amarin executives right after V approval. Turned out to be a perfect timing.
That would be awesome.
FUD? I probably hold more shares than you are and I'm sure at lower cost basis. The 3 options, insider selling, NCE, and ADCOM disaster taught me a lesson to pay attention to every little detail.
I do believe RI has good chances of success that's why I'm invested here, but no stop at 2nd interim look, insider selling, and unnecessary dilution ahead of RI read-out cannot be ignored either.