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Great post!! Good due diligence on your part. However, I feel its highly speculative to assume BD will partner (for some reason I am not believing your quote below is Geralds exact words....just dont think a CEO would be that straightforward and speculate to that extent). I am long and strong...so I hope it happens (but I want to keep things in check with reality too).
Quote:
AMBS feels that there is no reason why BD would not want to pay AMBS for in-licensing LymPro for the CLIA study and the subsequent commercialization. A first-ever Alzheimer blood biomarker would be a great asset for any company to have under their belt.
Until Gerald releases any negative news; there aren't any reasons to panic or sell. Keep the faith longs....this is a classic shakeout below major support. The MM's are testing the weak right now....could bring it a little lower.
I do expect a walk up back at .03 and over by Monday.
Gerald's blog said multiple news events are coming over the next few weeks (that was announced on July 11th ..it hasn't been 2 weeks yet).
Expect Lympro Lab tests from BD shortly and MANF Orphan drug data as well. Why all the worry...you don't lose a penny until you sell. This company is very young and in its infancy; Dominion Capital was described as friendly (per Gerald).
Forget the daily PPS swings. I invite all who post negative thoughts here to personally call Gerald yourself and report back what you hear.
Did it ever cross your mind that Market Makers are buying and selling back and forth to each other (and walking it down to flush out weak holders).
Food for thought!!! GLTA!!!
We have here wannabe CEOS', investors who believe charts and technical analysis guarantee future results, many who claim to have inside information and can expect exact timing of PR's, forecasters who can time predict future stock prices......Whewh. A very entertaining board indeed.
Let the Science play out and follow the CEO (everything else is nonsense).
As this very young company continues to progress their vast portfolio; we are ripe for more transparency and corporate updates (as it has been truly quiet over the last 2 months). Per Gerald and his latest blog (released yesterday); we will be getting major updates on their LymPro, MANF Orphan areas and new collaborations in the TBI field ......to be announced over the next few weeks..
In summary, you heard yesterday from a confident CEO (as he communicated his intentions with providing this specific news). As a major shareholder here; I am truly excited to see what will evolve over the next few weeks.....as actions are always louder than words.
Lastly, this is still one very tiny biotech company ......that has as much potential today as it did at anytime in its history (and has as much upside potential than any other company within the emerging and growing biotech industry as well).
Brilliant post....silence is golden!!!
Lots of unnecessary banter here:
1)Its all about LymPro short term; Gerald eluded to the reality that a program update is coming within a few weeks.
2) MANF Orphan indications/clinical data update is coming over the next few weeks as well.
What do you people want and expect realistically? LymPro is moving further along and we are in striking distance of a possible partnership.
MANF Orphan data will be the quickest path to potential commercialization with that drug program (the data is almost on our doorstep).
Have faith and just let things play out ..keep it simple.
Look at the big picture here:
Dominion Capital just filed a 13g (5% holdings and above) and did the bridge loan outlined below (very recently). Also, Management just bought a new Phase II Parkinsons drug (shown below as well).
LymPro news on deck (wait and see approach to hear what BD wants to do with this product). Maybe significant funding if all works out well.
Orphan Drug data (MANF) due out any day (per Geralds message at the Marcum Conference in late June). I think the fundamentals here are very strong...... additional funding is the key (hopefully, it will be announced in the very near future with Dominion) or another partner.
Sound like a company going out of business anytime soon?
Sec filing:
On June 7, 2013 Amarantus Bioscience Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into a Securities Purchase Agreement (the “Bridge Financing”) with an institutional investor pursuant to which the investor purchased an aggregate principal amount $250,000 12% debentures due June 7, 2014 (the “Debentures”), with a payment schedule of $125,000 upon execution and $125,000 within 30 days. The Debentures are convertible into common stock at a conversion price of $0.032 per share, subject to adjustment. The Company may repurchase this note at any time for 125% of the purchase price. Aegis Capital served as placement agent on the transaction and received 10% in placement agent fees.
In connection with the offer and sale of the Debentures, the Company relied on the exemption from registration provided by Section 4(2) of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended.
Item 2.03 Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant
The information in Item 1.01 of this Current Report on Form 8-K is incorporated by reference into this Item 2.03.
Item 8.01 Other Events.
On May 22, 2013, the Company entered into a letter of intent to in-license a Phase 2 drug candidate in L-Dopa-Induced Dyskinesia Parkinson’s Disease from an undisclosed third party. Once licensed the Company intends to initiate a Phase 2b clinical trial within 12 months.
I am not a bonafide expert in this arena. Conceptually, an Orphan Drug status will help expedite the FDA approval review/approval process. In summary, the FDA has targeted Orphan drug disease areas as those where drugs are very much needed....as apparently there are not adequate drugs and/or therapies to treat these types of diseases.
So by targeting these unmet need; the path to commercialization should be expedited (as the FDA will and should be more willing to approve (consider worthy drugs to address this types of diseases).
My two cents......
In the latest Marcum Conference (just weeks ago); Gerald confirmed that they were to release news regarding MANF for Orphan indications (related to both the Eye and Ear). Most importantly, he said that this news would be out late June or early July (so I agree that MANF is moving along simultaneously).
It will be a busy quarter indeed.......
It looks fairly good that Dominion Capital may want to hold there 7% stake and possibly be a long term Financing arm (as least for now). I think this is very significant news as it can lift some uncertainty regarding those who are holding back with investing here.
As Jason Napadano (Zacks Analyst) has stated:
Conclusion:
Based on the current stock price, Amarantus is trading with a market capitalization of only $16 million. We acknowledge the company's tenuous financial position, but believe that LymPro alone is worth $50 million. If Becton, Dickinson likes what they see in the validation studies we expect the company to then seek to in-license the candidate from Amarantus and push forward toward CLIA approval in 2014. Amarantus has been talking more and more about concussion awareness and the opportunity for MANF in this indication. We note the #C4CT Concussion Awareness Summit takes place in Minneapolis on Friday, June 21 and are looking forward to hearing what comes out of the conference in this regard. Finally, a new opportunity in LID looks like it may be emerging, and with no approved therapies this could be significant for shareholders.
Amarantus has built (and is continuing to build) a portfolio of assets that lead us to conclude the current valuation of only $16 million is far too low. A catalyst for driving valuation higher might just be raising capital to drive these opportunities forward.
I agree with your summary and assessment; I know things could have turned out differently S/T.....and the PPS could be higher right now.
But it is what it is...two steps back ..but maybe 10 steps forward (my ultimate dream scenario).
Its very possible; I am sure someone will do the math and look back historically to track the transactions. However, the most important aspect here ...is that it appears they have not (or probably did not) sell any shares (this reality will need to be confirmed).
Bottom line: they believe a future return on their investment is likely (but its never guaranteed). Its still a big positive!!!
The bulls here have to like that news; its a HUGE vote of confidence for future expectations. This quarter is going to be very active with news....across the entire portfolio.
I have one open issue; where do we stand on O/S? I dont mean whats been reported previously ....I mean what has been negotiated lately with Dominion that may or may not be fully included in the O/S overall.
Market makers playing this PPS like a Yo Yo. Until we get any meaningful news...enjoy the tricks of the their respective ways of doing business.....Otherwise, its just mostly retail holders who wont move the price much ...one way or another.
Completely disagree!!! The Market will definitely undervalue a company such as Amarantus... as Mgt. has not given any transparency on how they will fund there future operations. Therefore, the suppressed valuation factors in many risks that are ongoing and have not been addressed.
If you read Jasons Napadano's Zack report on Amarantus; please pay attention to what he concluded will be a major paradigm shift...once quality funding is transacted and made and Mgt. has visibility and capability to execute the business plan properly...you will see the Market cap. change to reflect a more normal valuation.
You missed the point; its not about WB investing in a company like Amarantus..its the reality that successful investors have success taking a contrarion investment point of view. If you believe the company is undervalued and that the market is not truly reflecting a reasonable and meaningful market cap ...take advantage and add (or buy) at these levels.
Its really amazes me how many people here post daily; but they believe that the PPS has no upside. So why spend the time and energy to follow this company (one would think that there are many better investment opportunities to spend one's time).
I am with Dr. Jerry and other investors who believe the business plan is unfolding and that the future is bright. I put my money where my mouth is...been dollar cost averaging and have quadrupled my initial investment (its only going to take one catalyst to shift the paridigm).
Either a BD partnership, a serious cash infusion, a substantial grant or another organization that recognizes the tremendous asset base and wants to invest in the company. GLTA!!!
If anybody here believes everything that is posted on this message board; you should have your head examined. My opinion: just follow the CEO and watch how the business plan unfolds....I am very optimistic (outside of the last round of dilution to clean up the balance sheet). Again, there are so many talented people (with excellent Pharma. backgrounds on board)....let the advise and provide true leadership when bringing products too commercialization (or help moving drugs through the drug development process).
Also, I really hope that a significant financing deal doesnt occur down at these levels...the latest bridge financing makes perfect sense. Lastly, I am really surprised how many S/T oriented many investors are here (too many here dont have a clue and lack any reasonable knowledge when it comes to Biotech investing ...the get rich scheme overnight doesnt work...go play the Lottery or visit a casino).
Per Geralds monthly blog:
"outlined an aggressive growth strategy for the Company’s key products, MANF and LymPro, at a period in their development cycle when significant value can be created with relatively little capital invested over the next 12 months":
Time will tell: but if he sticks to his publicly stated intentions; we should not see any significant solution over the next year (and possibly leading up to commercialization for LymPro). However, there may be some modest dilution....just waiting to see how things play out.
GLTA!!!
Fundamentally, the company is quite strong and making nice progress. However, they have not solved there number one problem just yet; how will they pay for the development of MANF and LymPro (these bridge loans are somewhat helpful...but they are not the answer).
Until you see a development partner such as Becton Dickinson step up a a true Partner (spending the $ to develop the LymPro product) or see a healthy capital raise (with a quality institution) ...or see elimination of a threat of massive dilution (or a reverse split)...it will remain stagnant for awhile.
I am confident these issues are huge priorities on Geralds list; hopefully, it will be then when the tide will turn the PPS will go back upward.
I guess you have S/T memory loss ...forget that this deal was just signed recently.
Amarantus Seeks Candidate For PD-LID
On May 22, 2013, Amarantus entered into a letter of intent to in-license a Phase II drug candidate in L-Dopa-Induced Dyskinesia (LID) in patients with Parkinson's Disease from an undisclosed third party. Once the license is complete, Amarantus plans to initiate a Phase IIb trial within 12 months.
Waiting patiently to buy more; I would prefer that a more significant(or reasonable) Cash raise is transacted with a quality institution.
The Seeking Alpha article posted after the close seems fairly accurate to me; a paradigm shift will occur once Amarantus can provide more transparency with adequate funding.
BD and Lympro are the real deal; expect bigger and better things (with that relationship down the road)
....holding LONG and STRONG.
Does anybody listen and pay attention to the CEO webcasts anymore. I am not in denial that their is persistent dilution; but the CEO has stated numerous times that company is strong fundamentally otherwise. I am sure Becton Dickinson strives to do business with bankrupt businesses that have no credibility...lol (here is a hint...look at the bigger picture).
Once BD establishes success with the lab results; they will step up and form a stronger relationship...and most likley market Lympro (and take their cut). Why do you think they would put up the money now (once the risk is minimized...they will increase their presence).
On Deck:
These are the next two catalysts (date and information due out by end of Q2):
1) Gene Therapy data related to MANF
2) Orphan indications related to both the Eye and Ear (tied to MANF as well).
and one other MANF catalyst could happen too:
3) MJFF grant
Gerald confirmed these realities in the most recent Marcum presentations a short while back except for an MJFF grant (listen to the webcast).
Anybody have a few million to loan to Gerald..this dilutive financing is getting old and destructive to shareholders!
I think Jason Napodano says its best: Its all about what type of capital raise this company can execute. Just an FYI - the cost to bring LymPro to the market is not significant (many have posted here ..with drawing false conclusions). What worries me...a huge R/S...thats where we are tracking if Gerald continues to use equity financing....need to raise non dilutive funding now. The shareholders are tired of getting SCREWED!!!
Jason Napodano, CFA
The Big Conclusion:
We see Amarantus stock as a highly speculative call-option on the development of MANF, a potential revolutionary disease-modifying agent for the treatment of neurodegenerative and ischemic disease, with a mega-blockbuster sales opportunity. Aggressive and probability-adjusted discounting of cash flows pins the valuation at around $42 million, or around $0.11 per share. But we note the story remains highly fluid and volatile. Amarantus could be the investment opportunity of a lifetime if MANF pans out. With respect to LymPro, we see the diagnostic as a potential game-changer for the diagnosis of Alzheimer’s disease. Management is currently in discussion with GLP Labs to do the phase 2 work for CLIA approval. We expect an announcement in the next few weeks naming the lab. Assuming management can attract a big, wellrespected partner in the diagnostic market, the cost to conduct this trial (pay the lab) should be low – far less than
$1 million all-in. If successful, we see CLIA approval as a massive valuation inflection for the company, as LymPro
has potential peak sales in the $500 million range. LymPro today, based on all the available information we can find, is worth an estimated $40 million, with NuroPro worth another $10 million. As such, the entire diagnostic division is worth an estimated $50 million, or roughly $0.13 per share in our view. Summing up the two divisions, we see Amarantus Holdings worth between $80 and $100 million in value, or around $0.25 per share based on a current share count around 385 million. We believe the company will seek to raise between $3 and $5 million in cash over the next few weeks to sure-up the balance sheet and push forward
development of both MANF and LymPro. We believe management is looking to bring on long-term, quality institutional investors. The company has made significant effort to clean up the balance sheet and remove the stigma that Amarantus is just a penny-stock with no hope or no future. On the contrary, this company may have one of the brightest futures in all of small-cap biotech. They just need to get over the hump that is funding and waiting the data. We are Neutral on the stock with respect to our rating, but note massive upside to the story if things all play out the way we believe there is a good chance they do for both MANF and LymPro.
Dr. Jerry....please continue to post your thoughts and feelings regarding this investment. I would never let any person posting here skew your emotions one way or another....lots of uninformed speculators who like to stir the pot one way or another.
I like how Gerald replied regarding an investor who reached out to him (and expressed his concerns) ....and he did receive feedback recently...Gerald's response was...."disregard the chatter on the message boards".
My gut instincts say: Follow the CEO and listen to his thoughts and actions (Gerald in not perfect and can never make any personal guarantees with success...but his mind and plans are very credible...time will prove that ....feel confident about that reality and getting a future return on my investment).
Its either the price has been manipulated or they will announce a very dilutive financing deal along with the Partnership news (how dilutive is yet to be seen).
Per the latest CEO statements at the Marcum conference (on 5/30); it doesnt sound like the shop is closing anytime soon.
Either you believe the CEO or you dont (no middle ground); if so.."Hold Strong".
I agree that things will be moving forward and should start to see some positive developments very soon. Also, If we can get proper funding without an major or massive dilution.....our PPS should begin to ascend once again.
Lets hope for a major diagnostic partner for LymPro (Becton Dickinson...that would be HUGE news).
We can all speculate and try to intrepret what "development partner" means below....but I think many need to keep things in perspective because it does not automatically assume a JV partner (flush with cash).
The word.."Roche" has a nice ring to it indeed.
" 6.6 Timelines and Financial Projections
The Company is currently finalizing agreements with its projected GLP development partner, and is preparing a detailed timeline with an associated financial model which it intends to make available in the near future"
We have never violated the 200 day moving avg. (which was $.0470). It was a good close on the chart Friday; we are poised to move higher (assuming no further or significant dilution).
What excites me the most; is now we have a transparent and credible plan to accelerate and expedite LymPro. However, lets still keep in mind that a MJFF fudning announcement is very possible (shortly too).
Once the LymPro development partner is announced and MJFF funding as well (I think it will be a move back to the $.10 area ...but our convertible financier may make things tough above that threshold ..until they finish liquidating their shares (at the $.10 level and above).
Good things to come...been accumulating and adding over the last few weeks (have not sold a share whatsoever).
Today's 8-K filing simply stated: Is Geralds validation that Amarantus has finalized all MJFF Grant application requirements and has met any agreed to expectations.
MJFF funding should be on the way folks ...its just a timing issue from here. How much? Another $10mm would be nice.
This Link outlines the actual Venue change with the trading tier change); it does appear to be an upgrade (but I would like to know what officially led to this change...was it company management that spearheaded this change?
http://www.otcmarkets.com/marketActivity/venue-changes?search=AMBS&searchType=symbol
Just for the record:
Quote:
"Second, Gerald has stuck to his guns by moving ahead with delivery of MANF using CED and micro catheters versus viral vectors. Expect a jv with nsGene or similar company that uses microcathters".
Dr Jerry: I so appreciate your continued support and feedback. I just want to make sure that things are put in perspective. If AMBS partners with nsGene (or similar company)...I am doubtful if that it the type of JV that most of us are looking for....it appears to be a drug delivery partnership. I believe most are looking for a Pharma. partner that will infuse a large chunk of cash up front to fund MANF trials. In summary, what you have shared and outlined would be considered a huge success and big gain to enhance our MANF drug delivery mechanism.
Thanks Rookie: Just keeping it real and just know there are many faithful longs who are genuine and still here.
To All: please make sure to do your own DD ...these types of investments carry very high risk (no guarantees). But the reward is very high if all works out (just still hoping we dont get massive dilution going forward)...as we are somewhat at a critical cross roads right here.
Keep the faith ..and favorite quote by Fouraces..."Hold for the Gold".
What an interesting journey it has been to be a long in this stock. Although the ups and downs are rather obvious; I remain very optimistic about our future here. Let me explain:
1) We are moving back to AMBS (from AMBSE) on Monday; that will instill some confidence back to Longs.
2) CERE-120 results (disappointing results)are rather good for MANF; as any company that has a formidable start and has left the station (would have been a serious threat). I only see upside for MANF ..and perhaps even more attention as a promising technology.
3) I strongly believe Gerald cleaned up the Balance sheet for a sole purpose. Any company willing to Partner will only do this with a company that has a clean background (all toxic issues are now resolved).
4) The Diagnostics Portfolio (Lympro) is going to be HUGE; no matter what happens to MANF...you have a test that will offer Pharma's and patients great hope and promise. I expect the FDA will be watching and helping AMBS speed this one along (assuming all goes well with future phase 2 studies).
5) Talent galore; please tell where there are more hopeful companies that have significant Pharma. talent on both the Board of Directors (and Advisory Board)... then this $.06 company (rather impressive).
6) MJF ..I believe the Swiss study results (audit) will guarantee future funding from MJF (its all a timing issue right now).
7)Risks: Financing is the key to upside here; Gerald will get tested in his management capabilities...trying to raise future capital will be his biggest challenge. If he gets it right; the future upside (both S/T and L/T) is great. Supreme court patent challenges (will come and go...I expect very little to nothing will change in this arena as it impacts AMBS). Lastly, Reverse split seems inevitable...please tell me differently (Gerald may have promised nothing S/T; but I feel its inevitable at some point).
8) I will look forward to an up-listing in the future.
GLTA!!!
It looks like a new Breast cancer test was not acquired recently; however, they have a Breast cancer test somewhere in their portfolio (perhaps it was acquired last year or awhile back; but I dont think it has anything to do with the recent dilution).
From the 10-K:
"LymPro is a blood test that allows for the diagnosis of Alzheimer’s disease, even in its earliest stages, based upon certain immunology based markers in the blood..BC-SeraPro is a blood test that allows for the detection of breast cancer in its earliest stages. NuroPro is a blood test that allows for the detection of neurodegenerative diseases, including Parkinson’s, Alzheimer’s and ALS in their earliest stages".
Thanks Imitchell7085.
Can you confirm what page the Breast Cancer diagnostic info. is reflected on exactly? Thanks.
I thought Gerald sent Lews a follow up email explaining that the recent dilution was for acquiring additional product lines along with resolving lawsuits and retiring debt.
I now understand why the 10-K was not issued before the CC yesterday. I dont see any new deals or partnerships whatsoever.
A little disappointing ........