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VIP - Calendar Spread Buy Jan 9 $10, Write Dec 8 $10.
Buy Jan $10 for $1.25
Sell Dec $10 for $.50
Let it expire in 9 days, sell to close out. Or essentially buy Jan 9 $10 Calls for $.75. Would be happy with both. Stock being accumulated.
This is a Russian cell phone provider.
UYG Covered Call - $6.21, Write Jan 9 $7
Options are pretty expensive for these etf's. I am assuming other sectors will be just as good. I currently am doing a covered call for these, but may get out and do traditional covered call.
Return if Price Stays the same: 15%, 150% Annualized.
Return if Called: 29%, 291% Annualized.
$5.38 Break Even, 13.37% downside protection.
UYG will probly have a dividend of $.10 which will be nice.
I added commissions to calculate those numbers.
MTL Covered Call - $5.80, Write Jan 9 $7.50
Just put together a great covered call calculator. First numbers are if stock price static, second if called.
% Return on initial investment: 18.07% 50.60%
Annualized return: 178.28% 499.19%
DownsideProtection
Breakeven Point: $4.98
Downside Protection: 15.31%
OCNF can be good.
Tell us about the UYG call... when did you get in, get out? rationale for it? why did you get out? Why dec calls instead of Jan's?
Update on the two calls I am holding.
http://finviz.com/publish/121008/CY1dl2234.png>
http://finviz.com/publish/121008/CBI1dl2241.png>
Letting the free money ride on the CBI calls, $1, and still long my CY calls at $.30.
Awesome, welcome to the world. What did you buy?
I will be adding some resources here about it in the near future, so keep a look out on for it.
There was a study done, dont recall which, but i think it was something like 80% of all economists and analysts are wrong. =)
But hey, we have an industry to feed. =)
Six pack joe gives money to the government when they move money into government fixed income funds into this 401k as they keep making contributions.
Depends how high it pops. Right now, as of close, the Dec 5's were only .05/.10, so not that much. The Jan's are .30
The $2.50's are not bad as they are .40 for holding it 10 days.
16% for 10 days. Brings your cost basis to nearly $2.
But would I? I dont know. Reminds me of Wamu way too much.
So just posted the first covered write on my board. A bit exotic for some. Looking to get into it maybe tomorrow, or once getting out of ford. Depending on tomorrow.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.aspx?board_id=14678
So just posted the first covered write on my board. A bit exotic for some. Looking to get into it maybe tomorrow, or once getting out of ford. Depending on tomorrow.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.aspx?board_id=14678
A few Covered Calls I am looking to get into.
MTL & VIP for those that are not afraid to go overseas
MTL now at $5.77 a share, Write Jan 09 $7.50 for $.80 or so.
15% downside protection, 100% annualized.
Mechel is a steel producer, largest in russia and buying up overseas assets. Too much fear here, for two reasons, steel prices, as well as Russia.
For $5 i am personally happy holding it, even long term. Due to the fact that this is a steel company in russia, it is driven down, and volatility goes through the roof. Buying calls, esp since there are no LEAPS avail, is a bit expensive. Since the stock is cheap, I am happy to buy it at these levels.
It is trading at a PE of 2. Largest steel producer in russia, infrastructure will be built.
Risk? Absolutely. Putin has already fined them for price fixing. =P My strategy is to write monthly calls, to take in the premiums at the fastest rate, and keep lowering my cost basis on the stock.
Look at the daily. looks pretty good.
Also, our technicals analyst also suggested so.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$INDU&p=D&b=5&g=0&i=p05747938465&r=9971>
For a rally, from your mouth, er keyboard? to god's ears. =)
What did I miss? why the futures up? Left the office, and no bloomberg.
Here is the full link
http://www.cnbc.com/id/28143828
Whats wrong with SPLS? =) Just wondering?
I have a client with a ton of SPLS, he worked there, been following it for 4 years. In fact, I worked for Staples from 98 to 2001?
Treasury Yield Falls to Zero As Investors Seek Safety
Wow, what a headline. All along, the treasury yields were almost zero, but now, it turned slightly down. Common Joe Sixpacks are tired of the volatility, and changing their mutual funds to government funds.
Little did they know, they are actually paying the government money to safeguard the cash... and yet... I know some people who are afraid of FDIC. Talk about irrational behavior.
Six Pack Joe is giving $1 to government, to get back $.99 six months later.
the bottom line is, money is fleeing the market, for now reason, and yet we are holding up fairly well.
When the market settles down and start picking up, around 9500 on the dow as per some of the analysts, it may lead to a strong rally, as six pack joes will be taking their $.99 cents back from US government, and putting it into the market.
Win win for government. Borrow money from people, they are paying you to hold their cash, you (the fed) invests it (TARP/Bailout) into the biggest/strongest US banks, and get paid 8% a year. If they dont pay, the fed seizes the bank.
Just an update on yesterdays post.
Just an update...
Sold my net cost, just under half of CBI Jan 09 12.50's for $2.70 today, holding the other half of holdings still. Cost basis $1.09 with all fees. So this position is more than a double overnight. Chart still strong on this one. Will let the gains go with the stock, worst case, I am in the money on it. Will hold a tight watch.
Still holding CY Jan 09 5's. Stock up, chart looks good still.
Just an update...
Sold my net cost, just under half of CBI Jan 09 12.50's for $2.70 today, holding the other half of holdings still. Cost basis $1.09 with all fees. So this position is more than a double overnight. Chart still strong on this one. Will let the gains go with the stock, worst case, I am in the money on it. Will hold a tight watch.
Still holding CY Jan 09 5's. Stock up, chart looks good still.
Hey all, just wanted to give a heads up, with hopefully Langlui's blessing. =)
Love posting here and on another board, however since been hammered a bit about covered calls and calendar spreads.
Feel free to visit and post questions, ideas about it there. Just set up the board, so will add contents and make it pretty later. =P
Just search for Maksims it will come up.
Hey All, welcome.
Will fix this up as I have time, but I wanted to have a dedicated forum for covered call/ cash secured puts strategy discussion and ideas. This includes calendar spreads.
Perhaps one of the safest option stategies.
Looks like a double. =) Nice job... now sell half, lock in your cost, let profits ride.
Nice Job!
Absolutely, the economy is built on the backs of US consumers.
Overextended credit, and guess what, each and every one of those consumers is going to get their tax rebate and go spend it on a flat panel tv.
the credit card companies charge 30% interest, so as long as 1 in 3 keep paying, they will be ok.
I do work with a few pro bono cases, that have been paying min payments on credit cards for ages.... and its not like they are putting new stuff on the cards... most do not remember what they owe the money for since it was so long ago.
Add annual fees, membership fees, overdraft, monthly, late payment fees, and that is the new ballgame.
the credit card companies would love to have people pay min payments at 20% interest. =)
But it is scary... the way out of this mess, is to get people to spend, yet... we are in this mess, because people spend. Talk about a catch 22
Well, here is a scenario for you.
Spin off the bad assets into a good bank/bad bank model.
So the question is... how much is citi worth, without any of the bad assets?
fyi.. had an article somewhere, watch alot of these written down assets to be written up. =)
The government is backstopping it all.
JPM, Citi, BAC are all the "blessed" banks. If they fall, the united states falls.
Was listening to an interview... they made a great point. It was about letting GM/Chrysler fail. What they said is... even though GM/Chrysler bankruptcy would be best... the image would be that the United States is bankruptc. Just like if NYC went under. In the international community, NYC= United States, GM = United States.
Once again... individual investors respond to economic events, institutions look ahead. Market Makers make money on the spreads. =P
Updates from this morning and a few ideas.
Bought CBI Jan 9 12.5's for $1
Bought CY Jan 9 5's for $.30
May write against half my UYG calls at Dec 7 strike if i can get $1 or so of premium.
For others, if you want buy write idea... FWLT, HNP, and FLW have pretty expensive options. FLW in particular has 10% premium for $50's i believe for 10 days.
last point... food for thought.
The markets are now back to where they were 10 years ago.
Are you living worse now than you were 10 years ago?
But we had bad events over the last 80 years, yet the markets didnt sell off as bad as they have now.
I understand if we were down only 25% and we were screaming that, yet when we shed 10 years of gains, and nearly half from Oct 2007.
Now as far as the printing presses, yes, but that would show up in higher treasury yields, inflation, and guess what... it means higher stock prices. =)
I would just warn you, the economy and the stock market are not on the same timeline.
Just came accross the bloomberg, Ken Heebner has been busy snapping up financials... considering he was shorting on the way down, just would take it into consideration.
But in all honesty, for all you bears...
The market is down nearly 50% from the high of Oct 2007. Do you guys honestly think the situation warrants going down more?
Wake up, the last time the market went down this much was during the depression, and THIS IS NOT THE DEPRESSION.
Right now, the last 10 years of market gains were wiped out... 10 years!
Things are bad... but do you think we will hit 25% unemployement and mass hysteria beyond what we have?
At the high, the prices were fairly valued, not they are stupid cheap.
I am not saying this is the absolute bottom, though lots of professionals think it is, but when you have every government official say they will do whatever it takes, things aint all that bad and will be good in the future.
Quite frankly, if the world is going to end, and the end of the economic free markets, might as well just go commit suicide.
Anything less than 9% unemployement is already baked in. WE ARE expecting 9%.
Bought CBI Jan 9 12.5's for $1
Bought CY Jan 9 5's for $.30
May write against half my UYG calls at Dec 7 strike if i can get $1 or so of premium.
For others, if you want buy write idea... FWLT, HNP, and FLW have pretty expensive options. FLW in particular has 10% premium for $50's i believe for 10 days.
Stuff looking at for Tomorrow.
So here is what I am looking at tomorrow.
In case anyone missed it, today on Meet the Press, Obama has basicly reitarated his support for the automakers, as well as his plan for growth.. which is as mentioned before, rebuilding of the national infrastructure. I had a report from Claymore? or First trust that stated that over next 5 years, the total world wide spending on national infrastructure will be to the tune of 3 trillion dollars.
So as mentioned by another poster here, looking at FWLT, as well as from Lenny Dykstras service, Dupont (DD), Intel, CY (Cypress semiconductors), Texas Instruments (TXN), HNP, Fluor (FLR), Chicago Bridge & Iron, (CBI).
http://www.claymore.com/common/DisplayLiterature?ID=e366bf69-2b04-40d4-8642-ed535cc41d40
Also, for my play account, currently hold UYG Jun 09 $7, as well as a buy write/calendar spread Jan 10 $2.50, Wrote Dec 08 $3 for $.40.
Looking to add calls tomorrow or possibly on a dip.
Otherwise, also looking at buy writes or Calendar spreads on MTL and VIP.
Open to comments and suggestions.
So here is what I am looking at tomorrow.
In case anyone missed it, today on Meet the Press, Obama has basicly reitarated his support for the automakers, as well as his plan for growth.. which is as mentioned before, rebuilding of the national infrastructure. I had a report from Claymore? or First trust that stated that over next 5 years, the total world wide spending on national infrastructure will be to the tune of 3 trillion dollars.
So as mentioned by another poster here, looking at FWLT, as well as from Lenny Dykstras service, Dupont (DD), Intel, CY (Cypress semiconductors), Texas Instruments (TXN), HNP, Fluor (FLR), Chicago Bridge & Iron, (CBI).
http://www.claymore.com/common/DisplayLiterature?ID=e366bf69-2b04-40d4-8642-ed535cc41d40
Also, for my play account, currently hold UYG Jun 09 $7, as well as a buy write/calendar spread Jan 10 $2.50, Wrote Dec 08 $3 for $.40.
Looking to add calls tomorrow or possibly on a dip.
Otherwise, also looking at buy writes or Calendar spreads on MTL and VIP.
Open to comments and suggestions.
Well, the hedge against going short GM is going long Ford. =P
What GM will get is a lifeline, Ford will probly get what they want, a credit line, as doesnt look like they need immediate capital.
GM/Chrysler need money, otherwise they are bankrupt. Not an expert on this, but... if GM buys/merges with Chrysler, they will most likely have to issue equity, which is further dilution.
In any case, there could be a major short trap in the making... remember what happen with Volkswagon? Soo much short interest in there, it doubled? in a day?
I actually own ford calls, jan 10 2.50's.
Kind of undecided on GM, but yes, unhendged to take a risk would be great. If you want to hedge your bets a bit, do the f/gm pair trade.
From the news, looks like they will get their aid, nikkei is up 325, and us futures are up... looks pretty good.
Absolutely right...
Keep in mind, we had the bailout rally when Paulson/Bernanke announced it, so everyone expected it to pass. When it failed the first time, that was a major letdown.
So when it passed the second time, we already knew how much crap was going to be put on it, and dragged on. Was a lost cause.
At that point, there was still optimism about the markets.
Right now, there is major pessimism, we know about the start of recession, and like I stated in previous posts, every joe sixpack has already gone to cash.
I think now that Obama is speaking more, anything will be a sign. Keep in mind, GM/Chrysler needs this money. Ford does not.
If you want a trade idea, Long Ford, Short GM
Thanks.
I guess I should explain the Sbux trade. =P
Lenny Dykstra, met him and Cramer at a investment fest at Rutgers University a year ago, and that is when Dykstra launched his options column on thestreet.com
His whole thing is buying Deep in the money calls, 6 months out, and immediately when filled set a limit sell. He picked his stocks on technicals. Very sound strategy.
Deep in the money ensures you are paying the least amount of time premium for the option, (keep in mind 90% of all options go unexercersised, expire worthless). Stock goes up a buck, buy 10 contracts, and you are up $1k.
I made good money from his picks, from BP, Exxon, Haliburton. I followed my strategy to the t. Limit on calls, price targets, etc.
then came starbux... I went triple the amount of calls I bought when the trade went against me. Lost all the profits I made on previous trades, and some of my own. How did I fail? I wanted to buy cheap premiums, so I bought near the money calls, in the 2 month range, instead of the usual 6 of hte strategy, and went triple the amount I should of.
Fortunetely, the day of option experation, it poped and I was able to recoup 1/10th of what I put in. And then guess what... 2 months later, I would of make the money. I let my emotions get the best of me, didnt have exit strategy on the way down, and put in more than I should of.
And that.... is my lesson 2 that I learned with Investments, in particular Options. =)