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Avocet, my friend, how did you end up in the situation you are in now with MSLP? Was it not unchecked optimism? Drinking management's Kool-Aide, as they call it.
The concept of "dead money" and "opportunity cost"
Let's say someone invested $20,000 in MSLP and lost 75%. They now only have $5,000. Their loss is actually a lot more because they're sitting on dead money.
Had they invested that $20,000 in another stock and received a 30% return during the same period, they would have $26,000. So, this person's loss is actually $21,000 when opportunity cost is factored in.
This is what unchecked optimism can do to an investor.
Pump and dump. I've seen some go from $15 to $.20. It's not a bad thing if you got in at $.20 and out at $15. It's a terrible thing if you got in at $15 and out at $.20.
This stock is not an investment, or a trading stock, it's not even a speculative stock. It's a pure gambling stock. Throw your money at it and expect to lose it all. If it hits, it's a bonus. Kinda like putting it in the slot machines.
Mr. Frost made his $2.4 billion fortune by selling his company to Teva pharmaceuticals. Someone posted an article about Mr. Frost's overall stock picking record. His record for selecting small-cap stocks in which he has no management role has been dismal.
Think Paul Allen, who made his fortune with Microsoft and blew billions on countless of bad investments. Mr. Frost has been following the same pattern.
However, this doesn't mean his investment in MP won't be successful.
I don't know and I don't care, brother. It's a lottery stock to me. If I lose everything, it wouldn't affect my life one way or another. Same thing as my poker money going down the drain.
Too late for me now. Standing on the ship's plank and waiting for the word...
If CBP does turn out to be a dud, I want to learn from it and not let it affect how I view all Chicoms, especially SIAF. I see amazing potential in it...
On the videos I watched on YouTube, maybe they're a bit outdated, I didn't see that many prawns in the prawn tanks, or herds of cows roaming the fields, or fish schools swimming in the tanks. Maybe those videos were made just after the completion of those facilities.
One of my Chicom plays, CBP, has been halted for two days with no news. So, as much as I like the potential of SIAF, I'm weary about adding more shares until the picture becomes more clear.
If a Fortune 500 company like Caterpillar got hoodwinked for $580 million, anything is possible with these Chicoms. Of course each situation is different.
I don't see SIAF being an outright scam from what I know. If there's any irregularities, maybe overstating of certain items on the financials. The CEO has no history of chicanery and he's been in the agri-business most of his life. IMO, he's carrying his life's work through SIAF. I often wrong, so don't listen to me.
As for singling out U.S.-listed Chicom scams, oh please! Give it a rest. The biggest scam in the stock market, IMO, is the U.S. OTC and pink sheet stocks. These companies regularly release LOI (letter of intent) and MOU (memorandum of understanding) and uninformed investors don't know any better and go berserk stampeding over each other for a piece of the action. With Chicoms, it's accounting fraud. With U.S. stocks, it's the promise of the "next big thing" that never gets fulfilled. Same result, different methods.
Correction: Mr. Lei is a Director, not a 10% owner.
CBP Thanks for that DD piece. Mr. Zhao Lei is a Director and 10% owner. I guess it would make little sense to grant someone like that 50,000 shares than drop a LPH-like bombshell a few days later, would it? The share grant does reduce the chance of pending bad news. Maybe it's not great news or bad news, but something in-between. We'll have to wait to find out.
I have a bit of money riding on this. My head hurts from thinking about the halt.
Have a good weekend everyone.
CBP Your guess is as good as mine. CBP will either be the next YONG or LPH. If it's YONG, we're in the money. If it's LPH, it could be "kiss our money good-bye" bad news.
http://cne3261.chinaw3.com/Investor_06.html
CBP It depends. If the halt was at the request of the SEC, then we should expect really bad news.
If the halt was voluntary by the company, then we should expect good news or some bad news, but not as bad as if the halt had been requested by the SEC.
CBP "Hopefuly" being the operative word.
My face was flushed red when I heard about the halt. Right now, it's relatively safe to assume that the two worst case scenarios are out of the way:
--3rd party hatchet job a-la LPH. Those guys would be all over it by now.
--serious SEC investigation. I can't seem to think of a reason for them to halt the stock, then go quiet for two days. Unless things are happening behind the scenes.
On the other hand, how often does a company withhold good news? The worst case scenario I could think of right now is accounting irregularities. Not an outright or brazen fraud like LPH, but overstating revenue as one example.
This is what makes investing exciting...
Remove John Bluher from the COO spot and MP's bottom line will improve. I'm sure he's a great lawyer but a numbskull when it comes to supply chain issues. He's had 6 quarters to fix operation deficiencies.
The argument that MSLP is a good investment because it has a strong brand and soon to have over $100 million in revenue. Let's look at some companies that had stronger brands and with hundreds of millions, even billions in revenues.
GM: bankrupt (government bailout).
AIG (bankrupt (government bailout).
Kodak: bankrupt.
Polaroid: bankrupt.
Hostess: bankrupt.
They had access to capital and the best talent but still had to declare bankruptcy.
Please look at MP's financials for the last 6 quarters, the period of Bluher's tenure. Things have gotten worse. Notice previous 6 quarters' income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statements.
http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/MSLP/financials
If Brad wants to be the Steve Jobs of the supplement industry, he needs a Tim Cook. Bluher isn't a good fit. He's a bonehead when it comes to cost control and 6 straight quarters prove it.
Hey hey, ho ho
John Bluher's got to go
We need a qualified c-o-o
CBP
I think at this point it should be safe to rule any serious SEC investigation. It would make little sense if the SEC found reasonable cause of wrongdoing, halted the stock, then remain silent about it for two days. But stranger things have happened.
There are a few scenarios but my guesses are a buyout offer or restating quarterly numbers.
Yongye had an offer to go private at a PE of 5.5. Using the same guideline, CBP's offer should be around $3.85. If that's the case, I'll happily tender my shares.
It's either going to be very good news or relatively bad news...
Up about 50% in two weeks is very impressive. Very happy for the faithful longs. But if we want a 6+ bagger, this is not the way to do it. Ideally, we'd want a 1-5% gain a day for about a month or two, under the radar, and with some healthy correction along the way. Then a 50%+ spike for the finale. Before traders know what's happening, they'll be holding the bag!
The Dow Jones broke 14,000 today. A very bullish sign. The macro conditions are ripe, so if MP management can get its act together, we can ride this wave to e-z money.
e-z as a-b-c 1-2-3.
CBP halt
I think at this point it's reasonable to rule out:
--a 3rd party hatchet job.
--a serious SEC investigation, as we should have heard about it by now.
I'm guessing a buyout or reinstatement of quarterly numbers, which may coincide with the recent press release:
HARBIN, China, Jan. 24, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- China Botanic Pharmaceutical Inc. (NYSE AMEX: CBP) ("China Botanic" or the "Company"), a developer, manufacturer and distributor of botanical products, bio-pharmaceuticals and Traditional Chinese Medicines ("TCM") in China, today announced the appointment of Mr. Jack Zhao as a member of the Company's Board of Directors. Mr. Zhao will serve as an independent director, the Chairman of the Board's Audit Committee, the Audit Committee Financial Expert, and as a member of the Company's Compensation and the Nomination Committees.
Curb your enthusiasm people, especially the faithful longs. Some of you sound like you've been locked up in a dungeon for several years. Now someone shows you a juicy piece of steak and a girl in bikini and you've ballistic.
This is still a marathon.
It may blow and make for good trading but in the long-term, it will find a trading range and stay there for awhile until the fundamentals improve.
Lots of upside potential IF the company can turn a profit.
E-Z as a-b-c
E-Z as 1-2-3
M-S-L-P
You and me
Make money
2-E-Z
M-S-L-P
You and me
Make E-Z money
This one's in my "lottery" stock category so I didn't do much DD. But you can find that information here:
http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/GGCO/company-info
In these types of offerings, there is a predetermined date in which the subscribers can begin to convert their preferred to common shares. I don't know what the date is in this case. But when Mr. Frost begins to convert, it's a very bullish sign.
Had I kept all my shares, I'd be up by now! Now, it needs to hit $8 before I break even.
The float is tiiggghhhttttt...
QuickDraw007 convinced me to buy at $0.05 the other day. Wouldn't surprise me to see it at sub-pennies or $2.00 in a few months. A gambling stock at this point.
I put my poker and night-out-on-the town money into this and filed it under my "lottery" stock category.
No biggie either way but hope it hits like MedBox or HUSA last year.
CBP halt
On the negative side, how often does a company hold back good news? Unless it's ironing out some details. Doesn't look good from my view.
By now, a 3rd party hatchet job a-la LPH is slim. Otherwise, we would've heard something from that 3rd party by now.
Yes. We need a operations and supply chain expert as the COO. Bluher has had over 1.5 years to turn the company profitable.
Product development: 10/10.
Marketing: 8/10.
Brand recognition: 9/10.
Cost control: 2/10. Replace the lawyer COO and install an expert.
If the company cannot become profitable in the next 9 months, chances are high that it never will because it's difficult to approach someone and say, "We've been in business for about 6 years and we've lost money every single year. Please give us more money."
Still long though.
Funny you should bring that up, was just looking over MP's financials.
--income statement looks abysmal.
--balance sheet is dismal.
--cash flow sheet needs work.
Still like the long-term prospects because of Mr. Frost's involvement and the tutelage he can bring. But Bluher is not someone I would trust to resolve COGS problems.
If a 400 pound guy holding a Doritos in his left hand a hot dog in his right jumped off a 30-story balcony and flaps his arms, will he fly?
Brad and Cory are talented when it comes to creating products the supplement market wants. They have a good feel for that.
Steve Jobs also had a talent for envisioning amazing products, but he had an operations and supply chain expert in COO Tim Cook to ensure that those products made money for Apple.
Brad hired John Bluher, a career lawyer as the company's COO. What does a lawyer know about supply chain management? It takes years to develop trusted contacts in the industry.
I'm sure there's a role for reality TV Bluher somewhere in the company but I don't see it as COO. He's just bleeding the company at that position.
Brad probably feels comfortable surrounded by legal counsel because of what the company has done: A pattern of deceptive, misleading, even fraudulent press releases.
He's been given a second chance. He should hire a capable COO and move the company forward. If cost issues are not contained in the next two quarters, it's unlikely he'll be given a third chance.
IMO, the COO is the current bottleneck in the company. But it all leads back to Brad for choosing Bluher.
CBP halt theories
--if it was a 3rd party hatchet job a-la LPH, news would have been released yesterday by that 3rd party.
--if it was an SEC investigation, the reasonable assumption would be for the SEC to release the news after they halted the stock yesterday. Or they could be working it out with CBP behind the scenes.
--most likely it's a voluntary material news from CBP. Either good that they're going private or being bought out. Or bad because they're being forced to adjust financials for the last few quarters.
--or the company goes in silent mode and non-reporting compliance for an extended period and we're left to wonder what happened.
What else could it be?
A rich person in my opinion is a healthy one. If a person has a healthy body, healthy brain, and tames the mind, all things are possible. And it all starts with nutrition.
I've been thinking about the entry points because, IMO, there's good money to be made since the uncertainties have been removed.
--buy whatever you can between $4.50-$6.00 and hold. Less stress this way. Unless we experience a market crash, I don't see it dropping below $4.
--time it so you can get in about a month before a run. This way, you're not holding dead money but risk missing the run altogether if big news hits.
--50% now and 50% when it crosses the 200 MA.
Lots of ways to play this one.
Thank-you for that very valuable piece of DD.
There was no reverse split. You missed the run from $0.005 to $5.70. Could have had your own personal island like the rest of us. Don't you fee silly now.
Yes, but that's a known factor. So once SIAF lists on a Sweden exchange the dilution will stop? If that's the case, then that would be a good time to go all-in.
Everything is known about this company for the next 6 months. Every time it tries to breakout, shares are dumped on the market. So what unknown catalyst would propel this stock in the next few months? If there isn't any, would it be safe to assume that this is dead money for that period?
I'll continue to accumulate but until the dilution stops, it's hard to see the pps going anywhere fast.
With these types of plays, you just sit back, chill and relax (I think they call it chillaxing), and let the big money do the work for you. Eassssyyyy mooonneeeyyyy.
E-Z as a-b-c 1-2-3.
Take a bottle of 5hr Energy a PowerFuse drop and ask two people to use it and ask them to rate the convenience factor of each one.
5hr Energy:
--twist cap.
--swig content.
PowerFuse:
--open box.
--fumble with ampule.
--squeeze content (may or may not get everything)
--swallow.
PowerFuse's current packaging isn't grab n' go convenient. This is very important for the 7-11 crowd.
Ghana Gold = dilution quagmire. Even the hulk couldn't smash his way through all the shares floating around.
Codie says, "MSLP CRAZY GOOD!"
"The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails." --William Ward
CBP earnings release
Jan 31, 2013 / 12:00AM Earnings Release
Not expecting any major revenue growth as it's more of a value play than growth.