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Seems to me this is the most significant news we have heard in months! Didn't you have a list at one point with all of the evidence that seems to be pointing in the same direction? The beginning of the silent period, the Cognant expansion, the filing of regulatory paperwork, etc. Maybe we could add this to the list and re-post it? Also, in your opinion, would this contract serve as a stop gap for producing vaccine until the Swaston facility is online, which will likely be some time? Very exciting, this just made my day (even with a 10% drop :)
What did your Morgan Stanley friend say after they kicked the tires?
On October 8th, LP stated the following:
"In all of our public presentations all year long, we have stated that we anticipated finishing the recruitment this fall"...
Why would they reiterate this point on October 8th if they were not very close to reaching full recruitment? Now almost a month later it appears all of the sites are no longer recruiting. Looks like LP finally met a stated timeline :)
Surprised you didn't just buy some puts and then come to tell us all about it..
The doctors directly involved in the clinical trial at MD Anderson are excited to be associated with Direct and present the results. Why is that? Do you really think they would risk their credibility in the medical field with all of their peers by backing a treatment without any chance of success (i.e. grapefruit juice as the shorts would have us believe)? I am excited to see the updated results and learn more about what is transpiring in the trial from Dr. Subbiah next week.
No attack, but do have a few questions:
Will nwbo require financing in the near future?
Are there laws preventing a fund from shorting in advance of participating in a financing and does the SEC investigate such activities?
Do you really think NW would want to restrict himself from participating if and when cash is needed?
Anyone notice how we dropped in lock step with the XBI the last couple of weeks. But we don't go back up even half as fast today. Many bio's are up well over 5%. Look at Juno. We can't even get a nice bounce after a 50% + drop? We are currently confined to the market doghouse. If the sector goes down further we will go down even more, if the sector rally's we may be lucky to see 20-30 percent of the upside. What will it take to remove this heavy foot from our neck??
Good info! Look forward to hearing about the AA question as well. Thanks!
Mav, maybe you really are as niave as you claim about options. There's only one thing you need to understand. It is impossible for Beach, or anyone apart from the parties involved, to conclusively identify what is about to occur with the Oct puts and the shorted shares. We don't know who the parties are to these transactions, we don't know what strategies were deployed, we don't know what prior positions long/short are held by these parties. To say that we know for certain what happened or who is involved is complete rubbish.
Beach suggested one possible scenario. He said it was pure speculation. And I'm certain he even asked you to treat it as such. So why do you persist? Completly ludicrous to imply that anyone here has it figured out or knows what's really going on. Anyone worth their salt in equities or options will concur.
Don't believe Stepp posed such an opinion. So what's your point? The whole sector is getting hammered and we will continue to drop. Losses are losses so why does it matter? The fact that we have lost over 50% of the company "value" in a matter of weeks with no significant news tells me that this entire market is a joke.
"But in the final analysis, I overcame and totally dispelled ALL those holding the firm belief the Oct PUT option seller was Woodford's Patient Capital Trust (even that of what was espoused by many here as unreliable flip-flop artist Pyrrh some time ago!): ie posters: asserting it's Woodford: Beachlife; Sentiment; Afford PLUS, + ,.... even TC_Trader as well as Dan88, a large options holder."
"Obviously none of the above cited posters took the route of furthering their DD.... instead each of them opted for that implusive but not thought out post"!
Why is it that the majority of your posts are always self applauding? We already know how great your are Mav, you don't need to continually remind us. Sometimes the arrogance is a little ridiculous.
Please answer the following questions in relation to what you have asserted about the Oct Put options:
What is the approximate NWBO holdings in the Woodford Patient Capital Trust?
What is the approximate NWBO holdings in the Woodford Equity Income Fund?
What does the Woodford Equity Income Fund Prospectus say about derivatives? (here, I'll help you with that one).
4.1 CF Woodford Equity Income Fund Investment Objective and Policy
The aim of this Fund is to provide a reasonable level of income together with capital growth. This will be achieved by investing primarily in UK listed companies. The Fund may also invest in unlisted companies and overseas entities. The Fund may also invest in other transferable securities, money market instruments, warrants, collective investment schemes and deposits.
The Investment Manager may also make use of derivatives for investment purposes (gaining both long and short exposure to the underlying assets) and for efficient portfolio management. It is not anticipated that such use of derivatives will have significant adverse effect on the risk profile of this Fund.
Now what were you were saying about others lack of DD?? I feel like I have had to correct you a lot lately.
Bravo!! Amazing what you can "wrap your head around" when you do a little DD instead of blindly following..
1. It does not matter to me who likes or dislikes me on this board.
Well aware of that and feel likewise.
2. The board asked for a plausible explanation of the short interest and pointed to me as one of the potential contributors, so I responded with what I believed to be a reasonable and rational explanation. Notice in my original post that I did ask for opinions? I admit that the timing of purchases is not compatible with my original premise. That does not mean that it is completely wrong.
You asked for opinions and I gave you mine. I did not find the foundation of your explanation pausable and it appears you now agree. I did not say you were completey wrong, but there were major holes.
3. It may not have been Woodford who shorted the 2.3 million shares, but I think that it would be foolish for Woodford to NOT short shares as he buys, because that gives him the ability to stop a drastic decline in share price given any negative event without increasing his holding, gives him another angle to make money, and provides a small amount of "insurance" just in case something very negative does come out of NWBO (which I do not think is the case)...it is a big-boys hedge. I do not think Woodford or his analysts are foolish. I also do not think that Woodford is interested in owning a majority share of NWBO, which could happen if he only used the tool of buying on the open market to keep the share price from going below $5.
Woodford has the resources to support the share price without shorting the stock. As another poster mentioned, I'm not sure the charter even allows it.
4. No matter who shorted those shares, they do have to be bought back...as long as NWBO does not go completely bust. I do not think NWBO is going to completely implode based only on the latest events and given that Woodford continues to invest. Hence the short interest will serve to "prop up" the stock price as those shares are covered no matter who shorted them.
We've had nearly 10m short for a long time. Hasn't really supporteded the stock price. Why would 12+ provide support. If positive news, yes, the shorts will accelerate an upward move.
5. I really don't care whether or not anyone believes this rationale or not. I was simply sharing my take/opinion on the subject at the request of the board.
Likewise, I was only sharing my opinion. It is impossible for any of us to know for sure who is moving the pieces here.
This will be my last post on this subject.
Look I generally like you, but I see some major problems with your theory. No need to take it personally.
The timeframe in question for the increase in shorted shares is 9/15 - 9/30.
1. We know Woodford didn't purchase any shares on the open market during this period.
2. 2.3m shares shorted did have a dramatic effect on the share price during this time, please review a chart of the share price over the past three weeks.
In light of those two points, please re-read your post. Notice any problems?
Oh, maybe I'm just really slow on the uptake of Beach's theory of what's going on here. The original post had no mention of the July options, so I guess that's new. But let's talk about a couple of his claims and your response. Maybe you can help me see the light :)
"whoever added the 2.3 million short interest did so at a price that was mostly above the average strike price of the 2.3 million puts."
These shares were shorted between 9/15 - 9/30. The average strike price of the puts that would execute is above $8.
"It is common for a very large shareholder to "trickle short" shares when the stock has considerable upward momentum, only to buy it back when the stock starts trending down, in order to stop the trend."
The 2.3m short occurred from 9/15-9/30. In case you didn't notice, not a period of considerable upward momentum.
I am a lot more inclined to believe the short increase has more to do with overall market/sector pressure than Woody shorting the stock to save the day later. What happened to the Patient style long term strategy that Woodford manifests? Remember, the kind of investment horizons that take years. Now we are painting him as being worried about short term fluctuations? I think it's more likely that Woody is about to have 2m shares Put to him next Friday than the theory above. He probably never expected it back in July when most of the puts were sold.
Do you use ymb email? Sorry, missed my happy hour chance.
Wow!! Glad you were able to wrap your head around it. For someone as "experienced" as you claim to be, I'm surprised you can't tell it's a bunch of bs.
You're right, you lost me. You think Wordford shorted the stock, (sold 2.3m shares) in order to provide stability? Please explain how such a move would help the price in any way?
Yes, maybe even some right before the tweet..
I don't disagree with the premise of what you are saying and how it could in theory stabilize a declining stock price. However, I think most of the Oct put interest was created when we were still in double digits (please, anyone correct me if I'm wrong, going off memory here). So, either Woodford is clairvoyant, or..
If that's your hypothesis, I suggest you look at the timing of when most of the Oct put positions were initiated..
Flipper, how can you read an article like this
http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-charges-nine-in-big-insider-trading-scheme-1439295551
And look at a $12,000,000 + bet by the shorts in recent weeks (after a 50% haircut!!) without any pause for concern?
Would you please what "new" positions you are talking about? The only new position I see is the 2.3 increase by shorts. The rest is old news, no?
I dunno, probably the same source as the 2.3 million during the last two weeks of September. What's your guess?
Looks like the largest 2 week increase in short interest to date. Highest total short interest to date. 2.3 million shares shorted since 9/15 at some of the lowest prices of the year. Over $12m short bet from the $6-$7 range. Somebody seems pretty confident in failure. I cant imagine anyone risking that much $ at these levels unless they know something the rest of us don't. Starting to look like there are only a few longs that think the recent halt has something to do with AA. Fortunately for us, they all post on this mb.
We have a lopsided W on the daily chart. My technical analysis indicates this is a common pattern useful for predicting a big Winner. :)
Is it just my imagination, or did we actually have some 10k+ chunks go through at the ask today? Still low vol overall, but maybe a little buying at these levels. Probably just Dan adding to his war chest.
I love the tone of the response. You can almost hear the 'insert expletive.. morons', when reminding people that they have been publicly stating these facts at every conference the past year. I'm sure she was similarly astonished when people tried to use these out of date artifacts as significant pieces of evidence to their theories and speculation. Quite amusing.. or if you rather LOL!!
What do you expect, Linda? When you say nothing for so long, people will grasp at every little thing and use their imagination to fill in the gaps. Painting the picture they want to see.
I'm trying to hang in, but I'm fed up with the silence. They are making changes, extending dates, I feel like we have a right to know what the heck is going on. Other folks here can talk to management, but I can never get through. If they applied for AA, why not PR it? That's what other companies do. It would help the SP and allow financing at higher prices. Seems like everything is at a complete standstill right now in the Direct trial. We need $$. Why wasn't a financing completed in the double digits? Did someone drop the ball on that?
A perfect opportunity with bio's tanking hard again. I'm sure certain folks are writing furiously at this very moment. I expect to see something from AF this morning.
This is always the hardest part of investing for me. Knowing when to throw in the towel and admit that I was mistaken on something that I invested a considerable amount of time and money in. Always the hardest thing to do. NWBO isn't giving me much to hang on to currently.
I find the following valuations very intriguing when compared to NWBO:
JUNO - 4.9B
KITE - 2.8B
BLUE - 3.4B
NWBO - 491m
In addition, analysts are setting higher price targets and calling current valuations "buying opportunities" in the other 3. Seriously what the ??!! I look at their results and trial status, and NWBO's, and have no explanation for how wide this gap is. Even CLDX is worth more than twice as much as NWBO. Thoughts?
Well we do know one thing for sure. The estimated completion date is now September, 2016. They probably just realized recently that the date needed to be updated. It's easy to overlook the small insignificant things. This change does create a lot of other questions doesn't it? Also dispels some of the recent speculation.
This timeline now matches the Zack's analyst which is the probably the most reasonable projection I've seen to date.
Guessing we're not on the same page. I was thinking of a different collaborative project with Merck. Laughing is good for the soul, so good on ya.
Haha I understand. Actually you are not one of the usual conference optimists. But I do expect certain folks will begin to ramp up similar comments in the coming weeks. Nothing against them, hope does spring eternal. I have just learned not to get excited.
I am likewise interested in the other company's presentation. Do you think that project bodes well for possible interest by big pharma in a synergistic study of DCVAX Direct with a CI?
What's with the volume? No buying, or covering even at these prices? Seems that except for a few unwaivering bulls on this board, the rest of the market (including our friend in the UK) is completely uninterested in nwbo even at a 50% discount to a few weeks ago. Makes one wonder..
That's wise. You won't be disappointed and anything significant will be a nice unexpected surprise.
If you follow this MB for any period of time, you will notice there is a typical cycle of "expectation" created prior to every conference. It usually starts with wild speculation that we will receive significant news/updates and tapers off with a more subdued conclusion right beforehand that they may not be able to share very much new info because of embargo rules for some other conference even further in the future. The end result is typically the same PP presentation with a couple of small tweeks or vague comments that leave room for more speculation and questions. Nothing out of the ordinary. This has been occurring consistently for the several years I've been invested here. Usually the same folks. You get used to it after a while..
How much money have you lost so far?
The lower we go the more likely nwbo is taken private. Incredible timing for any parties interested in doing so. It would be the perfect ironic conclusion to this bizarre circus.
Perfect, thanks!