active
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Robert, to get to 2.1 I take the prior quarter and add a few hundred thousand. Until that trend is breached by actual results, it has proven to be a reliable indicator. If Steven cannot predict upgrades accurately, neither can I. Once upgrades are visible in financial statements or press releases, I think we enter a new era. That will give us a real data point other than the TPM growth curve. That being said, I am as positive as ever about prospects, but the share price is downright depressing.
John
Genz, does April count as beginning of the year? I imagine Wave believed the brothers would bring increase exposure and a beatable projection.
John
Robert, my calculator has us between 2.1 and 2.4. He said a chunk of it potentially to Q1. I have the rest potentially in Q2. I pay less attention to Steven and more attention to partners like Seagate. It is anyone's guess when the activations begin, but there appears to be a growing base of companies who benefit from usage...which is good.
John
Doma, here is what I found on the 10K:
"Item 11. Executive Compensation
Information regarding executive compensation will appear in Wave's Proxy Statement for the 2008 Annual Meeting of Stockholders, to be filed pursuant to Regulation 14A on or before April 30, 2008, under the caption "Executive Compensation." Such information is incorporated herein by reference. "
John
Alea,
we all took a couple of gulps.
John
Alea,
a fair amount of risk was retained and that is the driver of terrible earnings releases. Around the specific governance of industry pay: like a lot of things perhaps good in theory, but even if you were king it would still be difficult to derive the intended result. SOX was designed to protect investors. Large companies spend a lot of money on SOX. In many cases large financial institutions were/are so concerned with SOX and audit disclosures that they push aside more risks that are more important to shareholders. This was an unintended consequence SOX.
Much of the excessive executive pay that you speak of has been matched by record earnings years during a period of unprecedented amounts of shareholder disclosure and accounting governance. Given that fact, how should executives have been compensated? I say this because your thoughts sound good on the surface, but the devil is in the detail.
John
Alea,
those who were compensated most in financial services have hardly suffered. The prior five years were wonderful earning years for top financial institution executives. When you buy/sell/trade cashflows you can appear to making money when you may not be. In many cases, the piggy bank has already beeb raided by the time the non-profitable years arrive. By that time, one can move on without feeling too much pain and go repeat the cycle someplace else.
John
Alea,
it would be very difficult for those companies to attract talent. Top talent is typically inclined to seek compensation that is equitable to peers.
John
Weets the site has improved by many multiples. It has a much more refined look. At a minimum, at least there is something else to look at...I was getting tired of the guy in the airport, lol.
John
Kant, there are better times ahead. We all would love to see the share price higher, but it's not so bad if you want to enter or add. The next 12 months of prospects have never been brighter.
John
Kant, a repurchase would be a terrible use of our funds right now. If we were sitting on a mountain of capital, then great. The share price will correct itself. Price has been predictive of nothing and it continues to be.
John
Ramsey, great point.
John
My impressions of the call and results:
• I expected around 1.8 mm in revenue, but hoped for more. After finding out that Seagate drives would be a small contributor in Q3, I found it unlikely we would be much greater than 1.8.
• There were really good signs on the call. We are seeing our first enterprise upgrades on a limited marketing base. It is always difficult to imagine going from zero sales to 100 sales (example only). It is much less difficult to imagine going from 100 sales to 500 sales. Especially given the fact that this will continue to be marketed more broadly and given the fact that the FDE is an easy to understand value proposition.
• There will be additional OEMs
• More and more push is going behind the TCG. There is a reason for that happening.
• Not from the call, but important, Seagate is going to push FDE across their enterprise drives in 2008. Other hard drive OEMs will follow. This is a huge development. Danbury comes out in 2008. As a few TCG guys stated, 2008 will be the year for trusted computing to break out.
• I expect 2.5 to 3.0 for 4th quarter revenue -- leaning to 2.5.
• Overall positive...upgrades finally happening
John
A few updated bits of info:
http://www.seagate.com/ww/v/index.jsp?locale=en-US&name=dn_sec_white_paper_case_study&vgnextoid=867f83bedbc93110VgnVCM100000f5ee0a0aRCRD
Without a doubt, hardware FDE will have a tremendous impact.
John
Helpful, the only importance that I see is that true competitors rarely share booths.
John
From my prior post, have we ever shared a boot with Infineon before? Any significance?
Alea,
it is amazing the Dow and Nas are as high as they are given some of the overall threats to our economy that currently exist. I hear a ominous ticking sound that gives me great discomfort.
I had a former employee return from China recently. According to her, the city she lived in ten years ago was literally unrecognizable due to growth. In some places, the gap is narrowing incredibly quickly.
Alea,
the builders have to give back more share price. Countrywide still has to give back more. Housing inventories are at near record levels and it's hard to see a driver that will lower them anytime soon. You will also find some more companies like Moneygram who have structured mortgage securities on their balance sheets...taking unnecesary risks on investments they did not understand
John
Kind of interesting:
November 13 - 15, 2007 Cartes 2007
Wave will be at
Infineon Technologies booth # 4J002 and STMicroelectronics booth # 4G032
John
Vacationhouse:
Wow, it's good to see this in print:
"STX today announced it is collaborating with others in the storage and security industry to extend its hardware-based, Full Disk Encryption (FDE) technology to its entire portfolio of enterprise-class hard drives."
John
Doma, what bashers?
Bigtim, however, upgrades will not occur until the enterprise takes possession of the pc. Given the info from Weets, we are very likely to be less than 2 mil. Nonetheless, the promise is greater than ever. There is more and more pressure for additional OEMs. I will love to hear how many FDEs are moving. I will be less concerned about upgrades initially. They will occur. If you buy an FDE, you need to manage it.
John
Snackman, yes it is pretty bothersome that the CEO of a company that benefits from the promotion of TPMs is out promoting TPMs. It is even more bothersome that he had the audacity to use his real name. It is also bothersome that Intel is encouraging its staff to use blogs. We need to stop this internet thing now.
John
The Seagate/Wave/Dell solution is a no-brainer. We are under-priced imo and will continue to see increased buying pressure. Dell, Seagate, Intel, and Microsoft will continue to push TPMs as a security solution at an increased rate and soon others will join starting small and ending big. Sit back and watch it bloom.
John
nice numbers. I get the sneaking suspicion that the upgrade rate will be lower than expected in Q3. In addition to more FDE drives shipping every quarter, I believe activation rates will rise every quarter. I have to believe there will be some piloting and some waiting for certain levels of saturation before bothering with full usage of the drives. Wave should learn a lot this quarter on what the customer wants. This is a slam dunk product, imo and obviously in Seagate’s opinion as well. Which ultimately means it becomes a waiting game; something Wave shareholders are all too familiar with and have in many cases lost patience at the most promising point in the company’s history. I believe Wave’s valuation is as upside down today at 1.8 as it was many moons ago at 150. People give to much weight on share price it has been and remains a terrible indicator of prospects.
John
Awk, the ability to understand the value proposition of a tpm is simplified when highly established companies like Seagate, Intel and Microsoft begin pushing usage. When everyone in the value chain benefits, it should be a beautiful thing for Wave and especially for shareholders who have endured the full cycle of the development of a new piece of standard pc hardware.
John
Surfsup,
are you in Chicago? Perhaps you could attend the Dell Data security seminar on the 17th and give a report?
John
Gokite, any sense of traction with ASI?
John
Perhaps we can get some more positive reports. I still don't think most understand the implications of FDE and other products that take advantage of the TPM. I believe it will put an end to the long drought:
Dell, Wave Systems and Seagate Technology cordially invite you to attend a Dell Data Security Seminar near you. Come hear why data protection has become a top concern for organizations. Learn about a ground-breaking new data encryption solution designed to help your enterprise stay in compliance with data protection regulations, while protecting your most critical asset — your intellectual property. Dinner will be served during which you will enjoy interactive presentations and product demonstrations.
Round out the evening with a cocktail reception where you will have the opportunity to mingle, ask more questions and get to know the subject matter experts from Dell, Wave Systems and Seagate.
Dell Security Seminar:
http://www.wave.com/news/events/DellDataSecuritySeminars/index.html
John
Cosign, I beleive ASI shipped earlier. FDE has the possibility of blowing the share price out of the stratosphere relatively quickly. So the speed of the ramp will be interesting. I am also be curious about the upgrade rate and the speed at which enterprises will want to manage FDE drives.
John
Any guess/ideas on how many FDE drives get sold this quarter? I was thinking 30,000 to 40,000.
John
Awk,
it would be hard not to sell more inexpensive, more secure, easier to deploy and manage, and expanded feature set.
John
"Read How Others Are Using Seagate Technology
Read in-depth information about innovative data protection, the benefits of Seagate® technology and real stories from companies using Seagate products and solutions. These documents not only help you better understand the technology, but also help you determine which solution is right for you. If you have already implemented a data security solution, these stories can help you achieve optimal benefits."
--Looks like ther will soon be examples of companies using FDE in this section
http://www.seagate.com/ww/v/index.jsp?locale=en-US&name=dn_sec_doc_resource_lib&vgnextoid=86...
"Seagate offers two product lines that feature
DriveTrust technology: DB35 Series™ drives
for digital video recorders and Momentus®
5400 FDE drives—the fi rst hard drive with full
disk encryption—for notebook computers." I did not realize drivetrust was offered on dvrs.
John
Zen, that is very good presentation. I found it from slatecolts link. I do not believe that it has been on this board before...nice find.
John
Zen,
I cannot find the video from your link...
John
Some perspective on TPMS… This is an industry-wide commitment shipping on an increased base that will soon include consumer pcs. You cannot effectively utilize a tpm in an enterprise without centralized management functions. This happens to be Wave’s space. It has been a tough sell so far. That will change. It is changing now with hardware based fde and will continue to change with an increasing awareness of tpms and additional functionality. It has been a long and tough road for early investors, but it is more likely than ever. If the share price was $5, people would believe it. It is not.
John
Unclever,
I am happy with the amount of money that was raised. I am sure managment pursued the best terms possible. You seem to think there were better terms out there, yet you have not articulated how they could have gotten it done.
John
I have not seen this on Dell's website, but it may have already been posted:
Embassy Remote Administration Server Pilot with 1 Day Installation – 20 Users
http://accessories.us.dell.com/sna/productdetail.aspx?c=us&l=en&s=bsd&cs=04&sku=A123...