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Doubled up on Jan 120 calls this morning @ 15.70. EOM.
Bought some July 115 puts for 1.65 back on June 22
Closed them today for 2.95 and a 78% gain.
Just holding long positions now, when it comes to AAPL.
iPhone service plans announced
All iPhone monthly service plans are available for individuals and families and are based on a new two-year service agreement with AT&T. Individual plans are priced at $59.99 for 450 minutes, $79.99 for 900 minutes and $99.99 for 1,350 minutes. All plans include unlimited data (email and web), Visual Voicemail, 200 SMS text messages, roll over minutes and unlimited mobile-to-mobile and a one-time activation fee of $36. Family plans are also available.
On-line activation of iPhones via iTunes.
One small step for humans
A giant leap for humankind.
I hate the cell phone stores :)
We're pretty far out here on the west coast
With the iPhone creating such a buzz, it could raise awareness of such capability, said Michael Gartenberg, a Jupiter Research analyst.
"What we're seeing is the beginning of a possible sea change," Gartenberg said. "Apple is educating consumers about what phones can do."
If the iPhone catches on, the momentum could spill over to other Silicon Valley companies, helping spur development of Web applications designed for the device, wrote Tomi T Ahonen, co-author of "Communities Dominate Brands," in a recent blog post.
"If Apple ... says its future depends not on the Macintosh computers or the successful iPods, but this latest gadget, the iPhone ... and suddenly it fulfills all the heartbreaking failed promises of PDAs and palmtop computers of the past," Ahonen wrote, this is "the new dawn of the computer age" and the "real revival after the dot-com bust."
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2007/06/25/BUG4JQK9GO1.DTL&feed=rss.business
Enderle I think you err in giving him a "pretty close to the mark". I would grade it, "makes a small point clumsily" in an attempt to shield his hatchet from view a little whilst still wielding it.
Of course, that is just my opinion.
KCMW wrote: As far as stock movement - I dunno know
I don't know in the short term either. I bought Jan 100 and 120 calls - I think I reported that here. I have been in and out of those - this is the 3rd time, and have made good to great money the first couple of times. I also bought some July 115 puts last week. Those are trading positions. When added to our shares, 39% of our IRAs are in AAPL shares and options. The shares are now long term investments.
I do have some questions about Apple to which I do not have clear answers.
1) Exactly what is the amount of money Apple will get from AT&T for each new iPhone account, and how much will Apple get on a monthly basis for each continuing iPhone account?
2) How will the subscription model be viewed by the market? Will Apple be seen as having more financial stability by placing its new business and its hobby under this revenue and earnings model? Could it, all other things being equal, result in P/E multiple expansion or contraction?
3) Has anyone see or developed a reasonable model incorporating iPhone revenues and earnings into the Apple revenue and earnings models.
It seems to me that a case could be made that current estimates are on the low side.
4)Should we have an expectation of increased estimates and share target prices once some iPhone sales happen and are reported?
At least with the iPhone, there should be some news coming out of AT&T as well as Apple. Maybe the news flow will be a little freer,
Roni has made some good moves, I never actually tracked his hit/miss ratio, but I suspect a solid academic study of it would put him in the 'super-trader' category.
I'm going to talk about the Mac part of the story again.
I think this is a big part of the 2007 and 2008 AAPL story that is being shoved to the background due to the iPhone mania :)
Apple Mac Sales Grow Faster Than Windows PCs In Consumer Market
Apple's share of desktop and notebook sales online and through brick-and-mortar stores in May rose to 13% from 11.6% in April, according to The NPD Group.
By Antone Gonsalves
InformationWeek
Jun 22, 2007 02:41 PM
Apple notebooks and desktops in May continued to take market share away from Windows PCs in the consumer market, a research firm said Friday.
Apple's share of desktop and notebook sales online and through brick-and-mortar stores rose to 13% from 11.6% in April, according to The NPD Group. Apple notebook sales rose to 14.3% of overall purchases from 12.5%, while desktop sales inched up to 10.4% from 10.2%.
http://www.informationweek.com/news/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=200000146
Year of the Mac
June 22, 2007 (Computerworld) -- Apple Inc. got help from the update to its MacBook laptops to push its share of the laptop market up nearly two points in May, to 14.3%, a research firm said today.
"Whenever Apple gets a new product out, they get a nice bounce," said Stephen Baker, analyst with NPD Group Inc. According to NPD's data, the laptop "bounce" was 14% month-over-month.
The May boost put Apple's laptops in fourth place, behind Hewlett Packard Co., Toshiba Corp., and Gateway Inc., said Baker, and moved its combined laptop-desktop sales share from 11.6% in April to 13% last month. In retail-only, Apple showed a slightly smaller increase, from 9.6% to 10.8%.
"Everybody's notebook business grew last month, but Apple's grew a little faster than the market overall," Baker said, adding that the company's growth rate has been larger than the industry average for some time. Desktop sales, meanwhile, continued to stagnate, although there too, Apple has an advantage.
"Desktops sales are declining, but [Apple's] are declining a little less than others." Apple's desktop machines -- the all-in-one iMac, Mac mini, and Mac Pro -- accounted for 10.4% of all desktop sales in May, a small increase from April's 10.2%. ,p. Apple should get another boost starting next month, as back-to-school purchases begin, Baker said. "Apple will have a better bump at back-to-school in the July-August-September time frame. Everybody gets it the last couple of years, but Apple gets a little bit bigger one, since compared to the Windows guys, it's doing more notebooks."
Just gimme an iPhone minus the phone
And I will be delighted .
Price Waterhouse Coopers Global Entertainment and Media outlook
Spending on Convergent Platforms Will Exceed 50% of Global Entertainment & Media Spending by 2011.
I would say it could put Apple in the sweet spot - given halfway decent execution by the company
http://www.pwc.com/extweb/ncpressrelease.nsf/docid/E042C329AE028974852573010051F342
heading north
I think so, but I guess it depends on one's time frame
I changed my mind and bought
Jan 120 calls at 16.30 after selling the other day at 17.90
Also bought Jan 100 calls at 29.10.
Could be time to stop trading AAPL :).
JimisJim in order of size
I am holding GG, MFN AZK,, AUY, GLD, GLE and KBX
Apple says iPhone to access YouTube content
Wednesday June 20, 8:50 am ET
I imagine this will matter greatly to a significant set
of customers
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Apple Inc.'s (NasdaqGS:AAPL - News) widely anticipated music and video playing iPhone will allow subscribers to wirelessly stream material from Google Inc.'s (NasdaqGS:GOOG - News) popular video sharing site YouTube, Apple said on Wednesday.
ADVERTISEMENT
YouTube has begun encoding its videos in a new format to improve quality and save battery life when viewed over wireless devices.
The iPhone will be the first mobile device to use the new format, Apple said. More than 10,000 videos will be available on the iPhone when it hit stores on June 29, with more material added each week.
AT&T Inc. (NYSE:T - News) has an exclusive deal to sell iPhones with its wireless subscriptions.
Reuters
D.O.J. says Microsoft to modify Vista over complaint
Tuesday June 19, 11:06 pm ET
CHICAGO (Reuters) - U.S. antitrust authorities confirmed on Tuesday they reached an accord with Microsoft Corp. requiring the company to modify its Vista operating system in response to complaints its desktop search function puts Google Inc. (NasdaqGS:GOOG - News) and other potential competitors at a disadvantage.
The Justice Department said Microsoft (NasdaqGS:MSFT - News) would create a "mechanism" for computer users and manufacturers to select a default program to handle desktop search.
At 9:42 Eastern time this morning, according to Fidelity,
I sold 3/4 of my then current Jan 120 calls for 17.90 each -they had been purchased at 13.50. The proceeds just about paid for the ones I have left. Down to 21% AAPL in our IRAs and I don't think I will be going higher than that before the iPhone launch.
I am, however, going longer precious metals. I predict that the price of gold is going to take a little run here- based mostly on the much lower commercial short position reported last week. We'll see. Holding about 30% cash, so I have some ability to move one way or the other :).
Have made a bunch of AAPL calls this year. I think there is more to be made, but I think there will be better opportunities to go way overweight again later this year - maybe within a few weeks - like between the iPhone intro and the July earnings report.
iPhone numbers
I am sitting here scratching my head a little - stated sales goal - 10 million units by the end of 2008.
Suppposed to be available at launch - 2-3 million is what I am reading
Unless the iPhone flops big time after the first rush of buyers, does the 10 million sales goal seem like it may be a big case of under-promise, over-deliver to anyone?
Absent big problems surfacing near roll-out, which is a possibility we have to entertain (I don't think there are going to be any big problems) - I can easily see them being more than half-way to that goal by the end of 2007. I am thinking 15-20 million by the end of 2008 is not out of the realm of probability.
Still daylight out here in the Pacific Northwest - no moon visible yet.
What is it Red Green says
I'd rather be lucky than smart .
Timing is part luck, in the short term.
Quack, Quack, QUACK
Does it want more?
Printed 125.00
Holy Cow of Calcutta
A friend from Norway tells me his N95 has both wireless and internet. Go figure.
CUPERTINO, Calif., June 18 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Apple® today announced that iPhone(TM) will deliver significantly longer battery life when it ships on June 29 than was originally estimated when iPhone was unveiled in January. iPhone will feature up to 8 hours of talk time, 6 hours of Internet use, 7 hours of video playback or 24 hours of audio playback.* In addition, iPhone will feature up to 250 hours-more than 10 days-of standby time. Apple also announced that the entire top surface of iPhone, including its stunning 3.5-inch display, has been upgraded from plastic to optical-quality glass to achieve a superior level of scratch resistance and optical clarity.
(Photo: http://www.newscom.com/cgi-bin/prnh/20070618/AQM120-a )
(Photo: http://www.newscom.com/cgi-bin/prnh/20070618/AQM120-b )
To view the Multimedia News Release, go to:
http://www.prnewswire.com/mnr/apple/28700/
Source: Apple Inc.
· iPhone Delivers Up to Eight Hours of Talk Time.
· Click Here to Download Image
"With 8 hours of talk time, and 24 hours of audio playback, iPhone's battery life is longer than any other 'Smartphone' and even longer than most MP3 players," said Steve Jobs, Apple's CEO. "We've also upgraded iPhone's entire top surface from plastic to optical-quality glass for superior scratch resistance and clarity. There has never been a phone like iPhone, and we can't wait to get this truly magical product into the hands of customers starting just 11 days from today."
iPhone introduces an entirely new user interface based on a revolutionary multi-touch display and pioneering new software that allows users to control iPhone with just a tap, flick or pinch of their fingers. iPhone combines three products into one small and lightweight handheld device -- a revolutionary mobile phone, a widescreen iPod, and the Internet in your pocket with best-ever applications on a mobile phone for email, web browsing and maps. iPhone ushers in an era of software power and sophistication never before seen in a mobile device, which completely redefines what users can do on their mobile phones.
Tex: think the fact that Apple is launching Leopard in October is probably more likely to impact Apple's back-to-school season (folks deferring back-to-school purchases until XMas)
I think the impact will be somewhere between very small to none.
How iTunes is Paving the Way For Switchers
by James R. Stoup
Jun 13, 2007
Trojan Horse—figurative, a person or thing intended secretly to undermine or bring about the downfall of an enemy or opponent.
Ladies and gentlemen, it finally hit me during the keynote: iTunes on Windows wasn’t about selling iPods, it was about selling Macs. I know, I know, it seems counterintuitive, but it’s true. Though I must admit, at first, when iTunes came to Windows I just thought it was Apple trying to expand the iPod’s install base. And maybe that really was the initial design, but oh how times have changed. By the way, in case you missed the keynote allow me to explain. The new Finder interface is almost identical to the newest iTunes interface.
Curious…
Why would they do that, do you think? Well, one explanation is that the iTunes interface is just so good that, after almost two years, the Apple engineers couldn’t come up with anything better.
Well...maybe…
Here is another theory. What do you think is the biggest hurdle preventing wide-scale adoption of OS X? I’ll give you a hint, it’s not price! Nope, it’s experience. Almost all current computer users are familiar with some version of Windows. And even with the massive gains OS X has made in recent years, the vast majority of the public has no experience with Macs. But, because so many people have iPods, they do have plenty of experience with iTunes.
If only the iTunes interface was identical to the Find-...oh wait, now it is.
The biggest issue for Windows users, namely an alien way to access their files, has suddenly been greatly minimized. Because now using the Finder is just like using iTunes. So, let’s look at things from a Windows user’s perspective. They are used to using Quicktime, they are used to using iTunes, now thanks to iTunes they are used to using the new Finder, and if that wasn’t enough, Apple just announced that they are giving away Safari for Windows as well. Oh yeah, and GAMES, that last big reason for using Windows over Mac, just took a big step towards becoming a non-factor thanks to these recent announcements.
Apple has drastically stepped up its attempts at capturing market share and that means they are all but declaring war on Windows. There just isn’t any nicer way to say it, Apple has now become so aggressive that a conflict with Microsoft is all but guaranteed. How can anything else happen? Apple just announced that they were going to try and take a big chunk of IE’s market, then they announced that (with simultaneous releases) games will soon be a non-factor in choosing an OS; hell, the only way they could have made a more aggressive stand was to announce they are going to produce their own game console.
Microsoft has to react to all this. I haven’t a clue as to what they could realistically do to counter it, but I know they are going to have to do something because Apple is dangerously close to grabbing a lot of Microsoft’s revenue.
To say the least, this should be interesting.
http://www.applematters.com/index.php/section/comments/how-itunes-is-paving-the-way-for-switchers/
I was stopped out on remaining calls this morning early. I added some Jan 120's at 13.50. Will see how it goes.
Is 116 the buying op?
I dunno - I treated it like it may have been a minor one.
Stopped out of Jan 130 calls this morning - down to shares. EOM
Did some trading today
Sold remaning Jan 100's - total profit on those, bought on April 25 was up about 150% overall
Sold remaining Jan 120's - total profits on those, bought in Mid May was 78%
Closed July 115 puts bought on Friday, about a 25% gain - I'll corrct that tonight when I get home if that is off by much.
Still holding AAPL shares and some Jan 130 calls. AAPL still around 25% of PF.
Wonder what the next month will bring. Still clueless about the near term, confident about the medium and long term.
ZFS
I dunno what it is, don't care what it is and my happiness does not depend on it.
What I do what is for my Mac to boot up everytime I turn it on. So far, so good.
Here is how I cook salmon fillets
I build a fire on one side of a Weber.
I marinade the salmon in a limeade (fresh squeezed no sugery store bought stuff) and maple syrup for a period of time.
When I take it out, I press garlic cloves into the flesh - lots of garlic cloves. I sprinkle it with hot powder - current batch is Powdered Fire from Tears of Joy.
I place it on the Weber, away from the fire, but only after adding apple wood chunks (soaked in water for a period of time) on top of the charcoal. Apple wood generally comes for our apple trees.
I put the top on the Weber and leave the top air supply holes open about 1/2 way.
Smoke comes pouring out for a long time. Later on I take the salmon off (using two spatualas and a lovely assistant to hold the platter). About 5 minutes before I take it off, I brush on a wee bit of maple syrup.
It is real, real good, unless you're using poor salmon or have the heat too hot and you let it dry out.
Guy is a big firefox fan. eom.
From the same guy
I think it's promising, but it is definitely not ready to be released. Blurry text, wonky jScript engine, that's tough on the usability side. I'm really suprised they released it to the public at this stage. I think they are going to get a black eye from it, but we'll see.
The comments on the geek forums are not positive.
from a guy trying Safari beta 3 on Windows - he manages a pretty good sized web site
I'm using it right now. I like it, mostly. I'm going to try and use it all day (that means I'll get about 10 hours experience with it by day's end). I'll keep adding to this first post with my observations.
Initial thoughts
me likey:
-It certainly feels snappy. Our new map directory uses a LOT of client-side scripting. I'm looking forward to trying it out.
-resizable form fields. neato!
bugs me:
-Why can I not resize a window from the top? If the bottom of the window is off the bottom of the page, then I have to drag the window up, find the tiny handle in the lower right, and adjust, then move the window back where I want it. Also, I like being able to close a window from the top left (with a simple double click). That should be added to Macs in general.
-metallic look to the top bar is depressing. *searches for how to change that*
-page tabs seem upside-down
-edit>preferences>bookmarks uncheck 'show bookmark bar' but it still shows. ???
-finicky javascript engine. our drop-down menus fail. that's not good at all... I think I'll be cutting my test short.
I already have a purple heart
from browser wars past.
Not joining any new skirmishes :).
Well, thank goodness
for July 115 puts. Not buying any new long positions yet and not closing the puts yet either.
Fi, I just always
type in http://webmail.mac.com
guess I'm an old geezer *laugh*
Fi, I just got in via the webmail thing. eom.
IN 3 months,
I am not sure - after the earnings report in October, I expect it will be higher than it is now. I expect it will be higher than that in January 2008.
But, that and a few bucks will getcha a cuppa coffee.