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At $65.00 oil, UWTI would be at appox. $68.34 +$40.77 +147.86%.
WTI 43.53 -0.20 -0.46%
Crude Oil Futures - Jun 16 (CLM6)
Real-time CFD
23:17:13 GMT - Real-time CFD Data. Currency in USD
http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-historical-data
Why US Government And Saudi Arabia Don't Want Americans Knowing The Truth About 9/11 (Video)
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/22/2016 20:50 -0400
Via TheAntiMedia.org,
In a rare show of bipartisanship, President Obama and top Republicans in Congress have come together to shield Americans from knowing the truth about who was behind the 9/11 terror attacks, which took the lives of 2996 people in 2001. However strange it is for neoconservative members of Congress to agree with Obama on anything, there is no doubt the issue must be serious if it warrants this level of partnership.
The issue at hand is the classified, 28-page section of the 9/11 commission report, which many experts and politicians with knowledge of the documents have said point to Saudi Arabian government officials’ direct role in the terror attacks. This is why the Saudis put out a stern warning several days ago threatening to dump up to $750 billion in U.S. assets if Senate Bill 2040 becomes law; S.B. 2040 would make public the 28 pages and also allow for victims of 9/11 to sue foreign governments found responsible.
The Saudis’ warning seems to have worked, with Obama now in the nation to “mend ties” with the monarchy and top Republicans sounding the alarm about the 9/11 bill. In an interview with Charlie Rose, President Obama claimed:
“If we open up the possibility that individuals in the United States can routinely start suing other governments, then we are also opening up the United States to being continually sued by individuals in other countries,” apparently referencing the U.S.’ own attacks overseas that have taken the lives of countless civilians.
Currently, Saudi Arabia enjoys “sovereign immunity” with the U.S., meaning even if the 28 pages proved Saudi officials were indeed behind the 9/11 attacks, Americans would not be able to seek justice for their losses. The new 9/11 bill would change that, and the Saudi response to the legislation moving through Congress reinforces suspicions the kingdom is somehow behind the 9/11 attacks.
The video below further explains why both Saudi Arabia and members of the U.S. government don’t want the 9/11 bill to pass:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-04-22/why-us-government-and-saudi-arabia-dont-want-americans-knowing-truth-about-911
103.50
100.0507 was LOD so far.
WTI 44.38 +1.20 +2.78%
WTI 43.77 +0.59 +1.37%
The LOD of WTI has been 43.08 so far.
43.53 -0.65
WTI 43.13 -1.05 -2.38%
Saudi Arabia set to secure $10 billion loan amid crude-oil slide
By Nico Parasie
THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
Published: Apr 20, 2016 7:53 a.m. ET
5-year loan marks the country’s return to the global credit markets after a quarter-century
Reuters
Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz talk is looking for billions to address a budget shortfall as crude oil stays around $40/bbl.
DUBAI—Saudi Arabia is set to secure a $10 billion loan from international banks as the kingdom seeks to address a budget shortfall caused by the fall in oil prices CLK6, +4.04% CLM6, +3.84% LCOM6, +3.79% according to five bankers close to the transaction.
Saudi Arabia increased the loan size from an initial target range between $6 billion and $8 billion, after receiving strong demand from a wide range of global banks, said the people familiar with the matter. The terms of the loan have been agreed and only requires the documentation to be finalized, said the people.
Read: Kuwait oil workers end 3-day strike
Also read: Oil prices slide 2% as Kuwait works call of 3-day strike
Among the participating lenders are U.S. banks J.P. Morgan Chase JPM, +1.47%Goldman Sachs GS, +2.41% and Morgan Stanley MS, +2.59% but also a strong Asian contingent including Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and Mizuho Bank, said the bankers.
An expanded version of this report appears on WSJ.com
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/saudi-arabia-set-to-secure-10-billion-loan-amid-crude-oil-slide-2016-04-20
WTI now at 43.98 and appears to be going down a bit.
WTI hit $44.05.
Why Doha no-deal is actually great for oil prices
Holly Ellyat
6 Hours Ago
CNBC.com
Global oil prices and stock markets tumbled on Monday after major oil producers failed to agree on a deal to freeze output, but analysts are insisting that no deal is actually the best possible outcome for markets.
Equity and oil markets have been hit after talks among 16 global OPEC and non-OPEC producers in Qatar on Sunday failed to produce any deal to freeze production. There were hopes that a freeze would support oil prices, which have fallen dramatically since mid-2014 due a glut in supply and lagging demand.
'Rational decision'
Despite the collapse of talks, oil market watchers said the lack of a "Doha deal" would be better in the long term and would mean that a rebalancing process of supply and demand can continue to its natural conclusion.
"We can see it as the rational decision that there has been no decision (in Doha)," Michele Della Vigna, co-head of European Equity Research at Goldman Sachs, told CNBC on Monday.
"It has taken 18 months to start to rebalance the oil market with falling non-OPEC production in a variety of countries and demand showing signs of recovery which means we are getting there, we're getting to a new equilibrium."
"So why delay it with a self-defeating rally that would bring an oil price to above $40 a barrel too quickly and one that would incentivize producers to ramp back up production?" he asked.
Saudi Arabian oil minister Ali Al-Naimi in Doha, Qatar for the Oil Producing Countries Ministerial Meeting.
Doha summit fails to agree on output freeze
Talks at the weekend fell apart after Saudi Arabia, the de facto leader of 13-member oil producer group OPEC, said it would not freeze output levels if fellow member Iran did not participate in the freeze. But Iran, which didn't even attend the talks, had always said it was unwilling to freeze production levels as it seeks to regain its share of the market which was lost during years of economic sanctions.
While struggling OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers might not be so sanguine about a failure of talks admittedly not many producers or oil analysts were optimistic from the start. For one, Russia's finance minister told CNBC last week that his country, which is a major oil exporter and present at the talks, did not expect any price change after Doha.
Pressure and lower prices 'better'
Although market watchers had warned that political rivalry between the two Middle Eastern powerhouses would scupper any chance of a compromise and deal, stock and oil markets took the failure badly with Asian and European markets trading lower on Monday morning. Oil prices fell over 5 percent in early Asian trade and were still trading around $41.21 a barrel for benchmark Brent crude and $38.47 for U.S. WTI (West Texas Intermediate) in early European trade.
The slump in oil prices is continuing to pressure shale oil producers in the U.S. where production, exploration and rig counts have fallen back dramatically over the last 18 months. While price pressures continue to punish non-OPEC producers like the U.S., that drop in supply was helping markets as a whole.
Goldman's Della Vigna said this continuing pressure on producers to cut supply was ultimately good for markets. "I think no deal is probably better for the longer-term because it continues this process of rebalancing and there is no rebalancing without pressure and pressure comes through lower oil prices, through tighter credit and we're seeing all of that playing out nicely," he said.
Goldman said on Monday that it was maintaining its fourth-quarter 2016 forecast of $45 a barrel for WTI crude and said that its full-year 2017 average WTi forecast was $58 a barrel, Reuters reported. In the short-term it said its forecast for $35 a barrel for WTI in the second quarter was now "more likely" following the decision not to freeze production.
That sinking feeling: Pros say oil headed to $35
Della Vigna said that there would be another six to nine months before the market "will again be in a deficit market with drawing inventories."
Miswin Mahesh, oil analyst at Barclays, agreed that a gradual recovery for oil markets was "still in place as non-OPEC supply reduces" and predicted that prices would not fall below $30 a barrel due to the lack of a deal.
Even if a freeze had been agreed, oil prices would not have changed that much anyway "because it's not like producers are taking away barrels," he added.
"It's a tepid recovery but it's still headed higher because the non-OPEC supply adjustments are coming through. Demand is still looking a lot softer than last year but it is a balanced market. If prices were trading above $40 a barrel, we would have had a much harder time balancing the market. The fat that we're going lower could help balances a lot better in the second half of the year," he said.
Holly Ellyatt
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/04/18/why-doha-no-deal-is-actually-great-for-oil-prices.html
Here’s why Doha failed to deliver an oil deal
By William Watts
Published: Apr 18, 2016 2:40 a.m. ET
No incentive for Saudis to let up
Why would the Saudis give up now?
That’s the question crude oil bulls should have been asking themselves ahead of the Sunday meeting of major oil producers that failed to produce an agreement to put a lid on production.
Prospects for a deal fell apart after Iran refused to sign up, prompting Saudi Arabia, the world’s swing producer, to effectively walk away.
Those that believed Riyadh had appetite to put a lid on output were banking on the idea that the kingdom is feeling the pain of the crash in oil prices CLK6, -3.47% that it helped to engineer. They see the Saudis imposing austerity, looking at taking outside credit lines and weighing a sale of a chunk of Saudi Aramco and see weakness.
Skeptics look at the same developments and see pragmatism. They argue that the Saudis are finally acknowledging a host of economic and geopolitical realities.
On the economic front, the Saudis realize that the world is growing less dependent on oil by the decade. Meanwhile, the advent of U.S. shale wrecked the existing world order in crude in just half a decade. It will never be the same.
On the geopolitical front, the Saudis are becoming more independent. The Iran nuclear deal was the latest blow to their esteem. They fear a detente between Washington and Iran, while still a long way off, will diminish their clout in the region.
Read: This nasty oil rivalry is why a genuine output freeze is a long shot.
Iran, meanwhile, had always made it crystal clear it had no intention of entertaining a role in an output freeze. With the lifting of sanctions, Iran is eager to sell every additional barrel it can produce and has no incentive, even with oil prices at recent lows, not to stop producing until it hits its goal of producing at its pre-sanctions level of 4 million barrels a day.
At the same time, outside of OPEC, production is finally starting to fall. The renewed collapse in oil prices early this year dealt a major blow to U.S. shale producers and, more importantly, their bankers, analysts say. If so, they won’t be coming back as quickly as had been feared when crude rebounds.
Finally, data show that U.S. and other non-OPEC production is starting to decline. The U.S. Energy Information Administration last week estimated that U.S. crude production fell by 90,000 barrels a day in March from February and lowered its forecast for 2016 production to 8.6 million barrels a day versus 9.4 million barrels a day in 2015.
Other non-OPEC producers also appear to be losing steam. Whether that dynamic and improving seasonal demand will keep oil from revisiting early 2016 lows is the next question.
It’s taken longer than Riyadh undoubtedly expected, but the Saudis are finally getting what they wanted in terms of routing out higher-cost oil producers. There was simply no incentive on Sunday for the Saudis to give up now, but it was an opportunity to show other OPEC members it would entertain the idea while ultimately putting the blame for failure on Iran.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/no-oil-deal-in-doha-no-incentive-for-saudis-to-let-up-2016-04-17
Doha deal falls apart, oil prices can slide to $30 in days
Apr 17 2016 - 11:33pm
Just as predicted, a deal to freeze oil output by OPEC and non-OPEC producers fell apart on Sunday after Saudi Arabia was adamant that Iran must join in the talks.
All appeals to the Saudis by the Russians and other OPEC members to save the agreement and help prop up crude prices, fell on deaf ears.
The development will revive oil industry fears that major producers are embarking again on a battle for market share, especially after Riyadh threatened to raise output steeply if no freeze deal were reached.
Iran is also pledging to ramp up production following the lifting of Western sanctions in January, making a compromise with Riyadh almost impossible as the two fight proxy wars in Yemen and Syria.
Delegates leave the Doha meeting without any agreement
Delegates leave the Doha meeting without any agreement
Some 18 oil nations, including non-OPEC Russia, gathered in the Qatari capital of Doha for what was expected to be the rubber-stamping of a deal – in the making since February – to stabilize output at January levels until October 2016.
“Without a deal, the likelihood of markets balancing is now pushed back to mid-2017. We will see a lot of speculators getting out next week,” said Deshpande, who added that prices could fall close to $30 per barrel.
But OPEC’s de facto leader Saudi Arabia told participants it wanted all members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to take part in the freeze, including Iran, which was absent from the talks.
Tehran had refused to stabilize production, seeking to regain market share post-sanctions.
After five hours of fierce debate about the wording of a communique – including between Saudi Arabia and Russia – delegates and ministers announced no deal had been reached.
“We concluded we all need time to consult further,” Qatar’s energy minister Mohammed al-Sada told reporters. Several OPEC sources said if Iran agreed to join the freeze at the next OPEC meeting on June 2, talks with non-OPEC producers could resume.
Russian oil minister Alexander Novak called the Saudi demand “unreasonable” and said he was disappointed as he had come to Doha under the impression that all sides would sign the deal instead of debating it.
Novak said Russia was not shutting the door on a deal but the government would not restrain output for now.
Russia is a key ally of Iran and has been defending Tehran’s right to raise output post-sanctions while also supporting the Islamic Republic in many of its conflicts with Riyadh.
TOUGH SAUDI STANCE
The failure to reach a global deal could halt a recent recovery in oil prices.
“With no deal today, markets’ confidence in OPEC’s ability to achieve any sensible supply balancing act is likely to diminish and this is surely bearish for the oil markets, where prices had rallied partly on expectations of a deal,” said Natixis oil analyst Abhishek Deshpande.
In December, OPEC failed to agree on output policy for the first time in years after Iran disagreed over a production ceiling proposed by Saudi Arabia, arguing again that it wanted to boost output post-sanctions.
“Without a deal, the likelihood of markets balancing is now pushed back to mid-2017. We will see a lot of speculators getting out next week,” said Deshpande, who added that prices could fall close to $30 per barrel.
Brent oil LCOc1 has risen to nearly $45 a barrel, up 60 percent from January lows, on optimism that a deal would help ease the supply glut that has seen prices sink from levels as high as $115 hit in mid-2014.
In early trading in Asia, the no-deal has already begun taking its toll on the market.
Brent went down 6.03%, $2.60 at $40.50/bbl, according to initial reports.
*From Reuters
http://thenewsnigeria.com.ng/2016/04/doha-deal-falls-apart-oil-prices-can-slide-to-30-in-days/
Nice dream!
"I Am Not Sure You Can Call It A Freeze" - OPEC Deal In Jeopardy As Saudi-Iran Tensions Spike: All The Latest
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/17/2016 08:40 -0400
Following last night's leaked draft Doha document, which envisions a non-binding, "gentleman-like" oil freeze agreement, that caps production at January levels until October, with zero enforcement or oversight, moments ago the formal Doha talks started:
OIL PRODUCERS START FORMAL TALKS ON OUTPUT FREEZE IN DOHA
However, even before the start, things did not look good, when Saudi Arabia delayed the start of the meeting in what seemed to be a redrafting to account for the inclusion of Iran as part of the freeze, something which Iran has clearly said it won't do.
DOHA OIL MEETING DELAYED AFTER SAUDIS REQUEST CHANGES: REUTERS
DOHA OIL TALKS SAID DELAYED UNTIL AFTER VISIT TO EMIR PALACE
DOHA OIL-FREEZE PROPOSAL SAID BEING AMENDED AHEAD OF MEETING
OIL-OUTPUT FREEZE DEAL SAID BEING AMENDED TO ACCOUNT FOR IRAN
Furthermore, we already know what the next strawman will be once today's "deal" disappoints: yet another meeting which will keep the headline scanning algos busy
OIL PRODUCERS SAID TO PLAN NEXT FREEZE MEETING IN RUSSIA OCT.20
Or as one commentator put it, "more meetings, more jawboning.It's OPEC's OMT program. Freeze won't happen,but they hope pretending it will, will do the trick" which is exactly the point.
So where are we now?
According to Reuters things are not as "optimistic" as Ecuador, Venezuela and many of the other high-cost, and quite desperate, OPEC producers had hoped ahead of the meeting.
According to the wire service, "a spike in tensions between arch-rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran appeared on Sunday to ruin prospects of the first binding oil output deal in 15 years between OPEC and non-OPEC nations, and looked set to prompt another fall in the price of crude."
But the meeting was postponed after OPEC's de facto leader Saudi Arabia told participants it wanted all OPEC members to take part in the freeze, according to OPEC sources.
Riyadh had earlier insisted on excluding Iran from the talks because Tehran had refused to freeze production, seeking to regain market share after the lifting of Western sanctions against it in January.
With the deal running into trouble, oil ministers in Doha met with the Qatari emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani - who was instrumental in promoting output stability in recent months.
But a new draft seen by sources thereafter contained none of the binding points of the previous outline. Ministers are due to start talks at around 1200-1230 GMT, according to sources.
"I am not sure you can call it a freeze," one OPEC source said.
A senior oil industry source said: "The problem now is to come up with something that excludes Iran, makes the Saudis happy and doesn't upset Russia."
Failure to reach a global deal would signal the resumption of a battle for market share between key producers and likely halt a recent recovery in prices.
And then, someone finally got to the bottom of things: "If there is no deal today, it will be more than just Iran that Saudi Arabia will be targeting. If there is no freeze, that would directly affect North American production going forward, perhaps something Saudis might like to see," said Natixis oil analyst Abhishek Deshpande.
We will update this developing story as more news hits.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-04-17/i-am-not-sure-you-can-call-it-freeze-opec-deal-jeopardy-saudi-iran-tensions-spike-al
Doha Is Done: Saudi Prince Drops Bomb - "No Deal Without Iran...We Are Selling At Every Opportunity"
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/15/2016 19:56 -0400
Crude headlines Iran Market Share Reality Saudi Arabia
In what appears to be a Doha party-pooping statement, Saudi deputy crown prince Mohammed bin Salman stated unequivocally that The Kingdom won’t restrain its oil production unless other producers, including Iran,agree to freeze output at a meeting this weekend in Doha. This a major problem because - if you remember - this week's melt-up in oil (and thus stocks) was predicated on an anonymous diplomat cited by Interfax saying a deal will get done without Iran (which the Russians refused to confirm). All that hope crushed by a reality that has been painfully obvious that no side will be given in the Iran-Saudi tete-a-tete... and now, as Citi warned "expect a sharp sell-off."
As Bloomberg reports, the world’s biggest crude exporter would cap its market share at about 10.3 million to 10.4 million barrels a day, if producers agree to the freeze, Prince Mohammed bin Salman said during an interview on Thursday at King Salman’s private farm in Diriyah, the original home of the Al Saud royal family.
“If all major producers don’t freeze production, we will not freeze production,” said Prince Mohammed, 30, who has emerged as Saudi Arabia’s leading economic force.
Adding - rather pointedly that...
“If we don’t freeze, then we will sell at any opportunity we get.”
“If prices went up to $60 or $70, that would be a strong factor to push forward the wheel of development,” Prince Mohammed said. “But this battle is not my battle. It’s the battle of others who are suffering from low oil prices.”
Prince Mohammed also said that Saudi Arabia isn’t concerned because “we have our own programs that don’t need high oil prices.”
Simply put, "no deal," given Iran is sending a junior minister in a clear message that it will do nothing.
It seems more than a few people "knew" nothing would come of this and that the epic squeeze-fest early this week was all false...
As Citi warned earlier,
If there is no agreement, then expect a sharp oil market sell-off on Monday. If there is an agreement in name but market participants realize it has no teeth, except a slower sell-off. Main oil-producing countries, but especially Russia, have been stirring the market since late 2015 with talks of a potential agreement and the market has responded frequently, creating periodic froth to prices, only to see prices come off when no agreement has been forthcoming.
Money manager net (and gross) length is around record highs on ICE Brent, giving some scope for position liquidation following any ‘disappointing’ headlines and adding to downside risk.
At this rate we may not even get a "gentlemen's agreement" over efforts to freeze production... and Sunday night will be a bloodbath!
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-04-15/saudi-prince-drops-friday-night-bomb-no-deal-without-iranwe-are-selling-every-opport
WTI 40.17 -1.33 -3.20%
WTI 41.25 -0.51 -1.22%
Stunning Photos Of Huge Oil Supertanker Lines Forming "World's Biggest Traffic Jam"
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/13/2016 15:04 -0400
China Contango Crude India Middle East Reuters
"It may be the world's biggest traffic jam."
- Reuters
Last week we revealed what we thought was a "shocking photo" of nearly 30 oil tankers caught in a traffic jam off the Iraqi coast, an indication of just how much excess oil is currently parked offshore.
To be sure, the record offshore storage is a problem because with the front-end contango collapsing, DB warned just several weeks ago when comparing the current level of floating storage (157.3 million barrels) versus that in early February (126.6 million barrels), that there may be an additional 31 million barrels of inventory to be drawn down between now and the next inventory trough over the next several months. It calculated that "depending on the duration of drawdown (three months or six months) this could mean anywhere from 165-330 kb/d of incremental supply."
But the photo above, meant to do DB's thesis justice, was nothing in comparisons to what Reuters would reveal today.
Because as ports struggle to cope with a global oil glut, huge queues of supertankers have formed in some of the world's busiest sea lanes, where some 200 million barrels of crude lies waiting to be loaded or delivered, Reuters reports today.
The vessels, filled with oil worth around $7.5 billion at current market prices, would stretch for almost 40 km (25 miles) if formed up in one straight line.
Something not quite so theoretical, and yet almost identical taking place right now, is shown in the photo below, which shows VLCC supertankers traveling between India and Southeast Asia, courtesy of Reuters.
And while the market is for now clearly ignoring the unprecedented accumulation of oil in offshore storage, a bearish indicator of just how much oil will hit markets if and when prices continue rising or when collapsing contango makes it no longer economic to hold for many it is an all too real daily existence. As Reuters reports, one captain with more than 20 years at sea said his tanker had been anchored off Qingdao in northeastern China since late March and was unlikely to dock before the end of this week, a frustrating delay of more than three weeks.
"We've stayed here a long time," he said, requesting anonymity because he is not authorized to speak to the press, but added that another kind of jam was helping to alleviate the boredom. "We have a piano, drums, crew who play guitar – they are not professional but they are coming good. We have more than 1,000 DVDs so there is no need to watch the same one 20 times."
As we first showed last week in the photo above, the worst congestion is in the Middle East, as ports struggle to cope with soaring output available for export.
It's not just the Persian Gulf though: shocking sights can be seen in in Asia, where many ports have not been upgraded in time to deal with ravenous demand as consumers take advantage of cheap fuel.
"It's the worst I've seen at Qingdao," said a second tanker captain waiting to offload at the world's seventh busiest port, adding that his crew was killing time doing maintenance work.
Ralph Leszczynski, head of research at shipbroker Banchero Costa, in Singapore, said the snarl-up was "one of the worst tanker traffic jams in recent years". The cause was "a perfect storm of red-hot demand from new entrant refineries in China and port infrastructure in the Middle East and Latin America that is unable to cope", he said.
Perhaps in retrospect it is not so much "ravenous demand", as soaring supply with no place to deliver the oil to. According to ship tracking data, 125 supertankers with the capacity to carry oil to supply energy-hungry China for three weeks, are waiting in line at ports. The combined daily cost is $6.25 million, based on current ship hire rates of around $50,000-a-day. It is also why Swiss energy trading companies such as Vitol and Trafigura have had a bumper year, one which has offset their pure-play commodity exposure losses.
"It messes up port schedules, catering schedules, crew schedules and the schedules of delivering the transported goods," said one shipping logistics manager in Singapore. "It also raises the cost for pretty much everyone involved."
For dealers, a month-long delay can turn a profitable trade into a painful loss. "If you've bought 100,000 barrels of crude at $40 (a barrel) that'll cost you $4 million," said one oil trader. "And if you've calculated another 1.5 million bucks for a month's worth of shipping, but you end up paying double that because your ship is stuck in port congestion, then that can seriously mess up everything from your schedule to your arbitrage profitability." In other words, for every Vitol that is making a killing on the contango, someone is losing.
Here Reuters gets to the heart of the matter with the explanation why oil shipping lanes now look like parking lots:
"at the heart of the congestion is an unprecedented rise in global oil production... as soaring output has pulled down oil prices by as much as 70 percent since 2014. That has helped spur demand from China's independent refiners, freed from government restrictions on imports just last year and gorging on plentiful crude, putting extra pressure on ports."
The unprecedented number of ships at sea filled with cargo and just waiting for the signal to offload is also causing congestion between the main producer and consumer hubs.
Almost all supertankers heading to Asia pass by Singapore or adjacent facilities in southern Malaysia, the world's fuel station for tankers and also a global refinery and ship maintenance hub.
Shipping data shows that some 50 supertankers are currently anchored in or close to Singaporean waters for refueling, maintenance or waiting to deliver crude to refineries or be used as floating storage.
This can be seen in the following Reuters photo of oil tankers lining up on the eastern coast of Singapore.
As well as the following Marinetraffic map.
For sailors stuck onboard this "parking lot" of anchored tankers, one of the biggest problems is simply wiling away the time, Reuters adds.
"Some of the ships are well-equipped for their crews, but many aren't," said a Filipino sailor who left a very large crude carrier (VLCC) in March after a voyage to China. "On my last one, we had no regular internet ... only an old TV with a couple of old DVD movies. The food is terrible and while waiting to offload we did pretty hard maintenance work. The sort of stuff you can't do when the engine is running."
Captain Alan Loynd, who spent more than 25 years at sea and is now a marine consultant, said long port delays were rare, but could be tedious and isolating when they happened.
And unlike in previous eras, having a couple of beers to break the monotony is usually out of the question.
"The chances of getting ashore are remote," he said. "A lot of ships are now dry, so there's no alcohol on board."
Unfortunately for Capitan Loynd and so many of his peers, the dry period will last a lot longer because as even more supply is unleashed, as land-based storage fills up and as every incremental producer rushes to stash millions of barrels on whatever ships they can charter just to let them float at sea.
Unless of course, the short-end contango flips and becomes a huge cash burn for the owners of all that oil to keep all their not so precious cargo seaborne. In that case those tens of millions of barrels will promptly find their way to the market, which will then unleash an unprecedented period of wholesale dumping as the liquidation scramble to find a buyer at any price, pushes oil prices to fresh new lows.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-04-13/stunning-photos-huge-oil-supertanker-lines-forming-worlds-biggest-traffic-jam
WTI 41.69 -0.48 -1.14%
Key Support and Resistance for WTI Crude Oil Prices
Market Realist By Gordon Kristopher
3 hours ago
Crude Oil Prices: How They Direct Crude Oil Producers' Actions
Crude oil prices’ short-term trend
Crude oil prices are down by 16% since the highs on March 22 due to renewed oversupply concerns. However, they rallied almost 40% since the lows of February 2016. The volatility in crude oil prices is expected to continue in 2016. Crude oil prices are expected to trade around key psychological levels.
Key support and resistance
Crude oil prices could see key support at $27 per barrel. Prices tested this mark in February 2016. Record US crude inventories and oversupply could drag crude oil prices lower. Crude oil prices are also trading below their key 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day moving averages. It suggests that oil prices could trade lower. In contrast, crude oil prices could see resistance at $42 per barrel. Oil prices tested this level in March 2016. Short covering and rising demand from India could support crude oil prices.
Crude oil price forecasts
The Wall Street Journal reported that many investment banks estimate that Brent crude oil prices are expected to average around $40 per barrel in 2016. WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil prices are expected to average $39 per barrel for the same period. The U.S. Energy Information Administration forecast that WTI and Brent crude oil prices will average ~$34 per barrel in 2016 and ~$40 per barrel in 2017.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/key-support-resistance-wti-crude-110624310.html
WTI 41.51 -0.66 -1.57%
Trouble for oil and this market may start well after any Doha deal
By Barbara Kollmeyer
Published: Apr 13, 2016 8:39 a.m. ET
Critical information ahead of the U.S. market open
An oil win in Doha may not matter
It’s a sea of global-equity green out there. Either the mood is shifting, or we’re building up to some big disappointment here.
Opting for the former, Joshua Mahony, market analyst at IG, had this to say: “Confidence is the key to any market recovery, and there is a tangible feeling that we are moving away from an environment of fear and skepticism, toward one of hope and optimism.”
That warm fuzzy feeling is pulling investors out of the safety zones of yen and gold and into the waiting arms of stock markets. Thank some strong trade data out of China for that.
That’s perhaps masking any disappointment around U.S. crude pulling back under $42 a barrel, as Saudi Arabia threw a little cold water on yesterday’s Doha deal excitement. But hey, Russia says “everything is possible.”
This weekend’s Doha meeting will stay at the forefront of traders’ minds, and plenty of Wall Street banks have been fretting about it.
In our call of the day, Morgan Stanley says don’t worry about that meeting — worry about what follows it. Our chart of the day lines up with that, talking about how the current oil rally is right on schedule — as the drop that comes next will be, too.
On with the show.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-real-risks-for-oil-will-only-come-after-doha-2016-04-13
WTI 41.75 -0.42 -1.00%
WTI 41.79 -0.38 -0.90%
[color=red][/color][color=red][/color]Crude Prices Soar And Dominate The Conversation
Tuesday April 12, 2016 17:38
As of midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate is up around 4.5% with Brent North Sea Crude following closely behind.
This is because reports are saying there is an alleged deal between Saudi Arabia and Russia in the run up to Doha this weekend. Yet, Iran has already said it will attend the meeting though it will not talk cuts or freezes in production.
We give a shrug of the shoulders. Canada and the United States will not attend and they will not touch the talk of cuts with a ten-foot pole, since the drastically lower prices have already cut North American output drastically. (Mexico will attend as an observer.)
To put the cherry on op of the whipped cream on top of the sundae, we think Iran will actually expand production once the infrastructure is in place. That is to say, within a six to eight-month timeframe.
Asian markets did not have enough time to fully take advantage of the oil bounce, but the Nikkei got a boost from the drop in the yen against the U.S. dollar and other world currencies. The Nikkei was up over 1.00% on the day. Shanghai fell one third of a percentage point.
European indexes grew stronger as oil gained momentum. The DAX, FTSE and CAC were all up moderately to robustly.
In New York, the S&P, the broadest-based measure, was up over 1.00% at 3:30PM, as was the Dow. They gained on very strong upticks in energy company stock prices.
The NASDAQ was not as strong as it tried to recover from a buy-to-neutral recommendation on Starbucks, which tumbled 3.00% at one point. Starbucks cast a pall over the day’s trading on NASDAQ.
The weaker yen also was of help for the Dow and S&P, giving a nice nudge to financials, which like the strong dollar. The yen has been overbought, the dollar oversold and we are bound to see some rebalancing before longer-term trends resurface. (The dollar is off recent 7-1/2 month lows.
Gold took a breather from its upward-moving spiral, but it is truly a breather and once the glow of higher oil prices dims, we look for gold to star ascending again.
Silver remained very bullish, up 1.75% as the close comes into sight. Platinum was up over 1.00% but palladium failed to follow up on yesterday’s moves, rising only 0.18% on the session.
Overall, it was a risk-off day because of the oil spike. Ten-year U.S. Treasury yields rose and face prices fell after a weak auction of the 3-years.
Let’s see what happens tomorrow with oil and equities to determine how the sentiment toward gold resolves itself. We’re thinking there will be profit taking on oil based on the dashing of the hopes raised by the Saudi-Russian rumor.
Gary Wagner
Thegoldforecast.com
http://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2016-04-12/Crude-Prices-Soar-And-Dominate-The-Conversation.html
Just added more at 122.70.
WTI 40.08 +0.36 +0.91%
Added more at 129.12 this morning.
166.87 Up 7.77(4.88%) 10:11AM EDT
WTI 37.32 -0.43 -1.14%
WTI 37.32 -0.43 -1.14%
WTI 38.14
WTI 37.64 +1.75 +4.88%
WTI 37.75 +1.86 +5.18%
Good job. Great call.