VelocityShares Credit Suisse 3X Long Crude ETN (UWTIF)

[Smittle]

Trouble for oil and this market may start well after any Doha deal

By Barbara Kollmeyer

Published: Apr 13, 2016 8:39 a.m. ET


Critical information ahead of the U.S. market open

An oil win in Doha may not matter

It’s a sea of global-equity green out there. Either the mood is shifting, or we’re building up to some big disappointment here.

Opting for the former, Joshua Mahony, market analyst at IG, had this to say: “Confidence is the key to any market recovery, and there is a tangible feeling that we are moving away from an environment of fear and skepticism, toward one of hope and optimism.”

That warm fuzzy feeling is pulling investors out of the safety zones of yen and gold and into the waiting arms of stock markets. Thank some strong trade data out of China for that.

That’s perhaps masking any disappointment around U.S. crude pulling back under $42 a barrel, as Saudi Arabia threw a little cold water on yesterday’s Doha deal excitement. But hey, Russia says “everything is possible.”

This weekend’s Doha meeting will stay at the forefront of traders’ minds, and plenty of Wall Street banks have been fretting about it.

In our call of the day, Morgan Stanley says don’t worry about that meeting — worry about what follows it. Our chart of the day lines up with that, talking about how the current oil rally is right on schedule — as the drop that comes next will be, too.

On with the show.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-real-risks-for-oil-will-only-come-after-doha-2016-04-13