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One of best things about the study is It didn’t seem to matter what level triglycerides patients started and ended at. Across all TG levels they did well.
Just read that a few times. That solidifies what we have all sort of known. The fact that even those <150 TG benefited, there’s just no end to who can benefit. Clearly everyone in the study but clearly a boat load more people that have normal TG can benefit as well. This is what blockbuster is.
The concerns r fair but they’re all over blown.
Afib I think was 215 vs 159. It’s a slight increase but with large significant reduction in strokes it’s CLEAR the evidence outweighs the risks.
I see a lot of bashing. This stock is shooting up Monday when people realize how broad the market is. Primary prevention secondary prevention. The diabetic market is just huge. The non label pts that will get this will be so large no one is correctly forecasting it. I honestly have spent the last 24 H reading everything multiple times. I can’t be more bullish.
Good luck all. Thanks to all the posts. To me this Monday/week we are going to see a new amrn!
NEJM is excellent article. They address the placebo in it. The results r outstanding. I stand by Dr Bhatt comments on the placebo issue. We crush it Monday. Bashers like Forbes are out there. Good science will prevail.
Thanks for all your DD today. Don’t worry we going way up Monday.
Disappointed here. Thanks for posting today. Very helpful.
You are good. I’m as all in as I can be. Nothing to be nervous about the DD has been done over the last 7 years. I am just more confident now then ever.
GLTA.
Interesting. I have never seen that or heard of that. Thanks for mentioning it. Maybe someone will post the graph. I am not as interested in the patent but I am interested in looking at that data if it’s posted.
T minus 5 days to AHA
Yeah that to me was suspicious that’s why I was trying to find the patent in question.
It’s really hard to predict what they are going to do. I am just trying to dig up any potential threats ya know. I am still holding all shares into AHA and I see us very de-risked with positive reduce it. I do admit I regret selling my Jan 4 dollar calls I had at 70 cents but hey profit is profit. I had to take it off my watch list as it keeps going up. ah well.
As of now it should be a pretty clear path aside from ITC case I see as binary. I hope ITC case doesn’t have a result for a few months so we can enjoy a post AHA run with BO rumors particularly if we get reduction in deaths which we are all wanting.
Dilution will happen too but we will recover from that fine.
Thanks HDG. I just skimmed through it. That does seem pretty strong patent. I remain as perplexed as you as to their plan then. We will see what they do.
Do you know why EPANOVA is not on the shelves ? I asked IR and they dodged the question. JT mentioned recently on a call their IP portofolio prevents drugs like EPANOVA from hitting the market. I am trying to find out the actual patent or patents that would be in play. I am still unsure what AZN plan is with that drug and why they are finishing this trial aside from it being so far in at this point.
IMO it won’t be restricted to those on statins. I can’t tell you what the label will say but there are plenty of people statin intolerant that benefit as well as those not on statins. The trial design has those on statins bc that’s the standard of care. It’s difficult to run a big trial of secondary prevention without people being on statins. There’s no suggestion being on the statin with Vascepa is a key element to why Vascepa works well.
I’ve always said this is more than just what this trial population shows. As we will see after AHA and when more subgroups are analyzed and released, the trial results are going to be extrapolated to such a wide population regardless of fda label. I hope and think insurances will cover.
Really looking at the details of who was able to benefit in the subgroup analyses is going to be blockbuster above the already blockbuster results.
I agree with BB PPS predictions except for the fact I see most of the pop post AHA when people can see the data. The peak sales shouldn’t be compared to Lipitor. That just serves as a reference people can relate to. We won’t be on the same scale as Lipitor. Much much larger than 10 billion a year because we are getting a portion of that population plus many others. We just need amrn to execute and we also need a favorable judgement to force ITC to act.
Very nice results. What was your a1c prior ?
I see your point but remember deaths is the biggest grand slam. Nothing is bigger than that bc that’s a patient oriented outcome that every physician wants to provide to his/her patients.
Also, I am not sure how you can prove diabetes is cured unless they set out to measure that in the study. For instance hgbA1c before the study and at end of study and also indicate whether they were taken off all insulin and/or metformin during that time (some T2DM are on insulin as well). I think this requires those later papers amrn will put out in months/year from now when they go back and look at subgroups.
For 11/10 let’s focus on a homerun and possible grand slam with deaths. I really want to believe we get deaths.
Fair enough. Yeah I see what you are saying. Let’s hope it’s included in the actual guidelines. My colleagues who know more than I do regarding AHA guideline submissions think it’s going to be this year. I think it’s tough on the timeline but I guess if the study is as big as we know it is you find a way to mention it.
It’s also impressive to me they are virtually guaranteeing publication in Q4. I was expecting a delay to q1. That is an amazing publication submission revision turn around time given they only had the results few weeks ago.
Are you sure ? May I ask how you know this ? I still believe they can be added. Timeline is tight but they have been following this study closely and I really think it will be included. You can certainly be right. This is such a key event.
This post reminds me how ridiculous it is that those companies are allowed to sell purified EPA OTC. I am glad you can get affordable treatment, just ridiculous that they can do this. ITC news is in the background. Anyday now to whenever the verdict will be out. I love how the courts can provide no deadline.
Hold through AHA. Invest what you can afford to lose but the Market will be shocked. The biggest risk was the actual trial which most on this board were confident was going to be positive despite Wall Street missing the boat. The AHA has much less risk to it. I was 99.9 percent confident in reduce it success and for AHA I would say I am 100 percent but nothing is 100 so I’ll be 99.999.
JMO. Good Luck.
Yeah. I defer to you and other law experts here. I am under the impression from a professional colleague that amrn cannot completely shut out MTNB but again I know the science not the law.
MTNB has patents (Def not as strong as amrn from a patent perspective- see below). I have known about the amrn patents mentioned by kiwi which I think are excellent for amrn.
Time will tell if MTNB will move forward or be the POS some think it is. I’m more excited about 11/10 being 2 weeks away.
https://ir.matinasbiopharma.com/press-releases/detail/324/matinas-biopharma-announces-issuance-of-key-u-s-patent-for
The issued patent claims cover the Company’s proprietary methods relating to reducing triglyceride levels, total cholesterol, VLDL-cholesterol or apolipoprotein C-III by administering a pharmaceutical composition comprising omega-3 fatty acids comprising eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) and docosapentaenoic acid (DPA).
I will go down as losing this battle to you. Great remarks and insults. I am just silenced by the pure genius in you. Here forward I won’t be responding to you or reading your posts.
Moving on.
What do you do for a living if you don’t mind sharing ?
I’ve thought about that as well. If you have a superior drug it’s not going to be bagged. I think that’s why azn is seeing what happends with their drug. Someone will buy or punch holes in amrn patents.
why do you get so defensive with everything.
I’m providing my opinion. Clearly you can’t have an educated discussion.
RAF,
I am not sure if you read the study or went over the figures and tables. I did.
I would encourage you to do so if you’re interested.
They beat amrn on many lipid and inflammatory markers. Wasn’t even close.
E.g Apo CIII PCSK9.
TG reduced 33 percent vs 11
VLDL reduced 32 vs 8.
APO CIII 25 vs 5.
Early on clearly not an amrn yet but again you have to at least agree they have potential.
Agree on waiting to talk about this. It was done in 2015 when no one cared about MTNB or amrn. They were waiting to see if amrn was going to be a thing. Now, with amrn being the best drug to hit the cardiac space they are pushing their drug as well.
Fair point on small study. However their study design was very strong with cross over design and to me I think the results will hold up. What they found is the truth. The few weeks doesn’t bother me. I’ve also read a lot on DPA and this also leads me to believe it is the real deal. They will need a phase 3 but no outcomes study for now. Nevertheless, we all bought amrn in 2011 or earlier and are very happy now. This will likely be the same or similar story. They have a long way to go but this next year is going to be defining.
I respectfully disagree to you both. Your points are good ones. Head to head and cross over design showed a far better result with MTNB. Wasn’t even close.
They will need a phase 3 and if it is successful again then it’s something to look at. We know outcomes is what matters but if head to head MTNB>>Vascepa, physicians will extrapolate and prescribe it. They just will. It will certainly steal market share (How much we don’t know). As a physician, I see your points but there’s a lot of different schools of thought out there and even without outcomes study MTNB drug will certainly be out there selling.
Listen I know we all love amrn. I bring this up as a fairly decent speculative play at 66 cents and only talking about it on this board bc it was raised.
JL and Tosca. MTNB is an interesting play. Focusing only on the omega 3 space which is not even their main focus, I Agree it is way behind amrn. There’s a couple advantages to being second.
MTNB already states they won’t need an outcome study to get to market TG>500. Likely they will be in the market in a year or so and will capture TG> 500 and possibly steal some of the market of TG<500 off label. It really is going to depend how lenient fda label will be since they are showing MTNB>Vascepa they may even get a label for <500 while the outcomes study is underway etc.
I think they are going to piggyback the 11/10 news for amrn and come out with a PR reiterating their plan and this makes for a play on MTNB. Market cap is 62 million with tremendous upside.
I am long amrn and love amrn. MTNB I only mention bc I am a buyer as well and think it offers an early entry to those following omega 3 space.
I agree. We still have ways to go.
It’s not a lock until we have the fda label but aha guideline update would be solid and practically alleviate any fear of not getting the appropriate label.
I agree on high price targets maybe not as high as 1000 lol but def more than 10 billion a year in sales and likely a multiple of that. The SEs in the trial make this thing a grand slam.
The two short term risks to price r dilution and ITC news.
I also don’t think we here diabetic data prior to AHA at the Oct meeting but I hope I am wrong. Will c.
Why are they doing that ?
Both are important but AHA presentation will be the big jump bc we learn the secondaries then.
I’m confident we shock the market again.
BB- No bueno.
Just listened to their conf call. They don’t need an outcomes study and are going for NCE and right to market.
Thanks B.B. I would agree here and don’t think they can piggyback our future label on just biomarker superiority. It’s only a 40 pt study as it stands. They have long ways to go and lot to prove before they r a real nuisance for those who believe they are a threat in the future.
Like you , I am still shocked at the inability of the market to value amrn correctly. I think after AHA read out and addition to guidelines which I am 99.9 percent sure we will get this year, the real value of amrn will become only closer to being realized.
You would think FDA would make Matinas do an outcome study after they do their one year phase 3 for the DPA. Right ?
Does amrn have to disclose a buy out offer to the public if the board turns it down ?
I would think so but not sure.
Thanks.
How do we listen in?
There’s no link
JOURNAL WATCH- Hot off the press to any physician across country on NEJM journal watch- guess what the top alert I just got was. Nice to see. All eyes will be on Nov AHA presentation.
https://www.jwatch.org/fw114608/2018/09/25/omega-3-pill-prevents-cv-events-high-risk-patients?query=etoc_jwcard&jwd=000020079602&jspc=EM
News Release Qs- The question is will amrn release the full data on the AHA poster the night before 11/10. I believe the poster presentation is at 215 pm. As we know from attending medical conferences, likely this is available prior to that time for attendees and others etc. You think they will PR the results the night before or early morning PR?
Thanks for your best guess and congrats to the board on AMRN. AMRN play is far from over. HOLD STRONG until this is in AHA guidelines q4!
Vegas trip - I am down.
JL Qs
In the 2008 Jelis subgroup analysis, there were 32 events/957 in the TG> 150 and HDL< 40
We have no further studies showing us the breakdown of MACE in this small cohort correct ?
There’s no update. Expected is 3 months but it’s past that and there’s no way to know when it’s going to be released but they weren’t waiting for reduce it results is what I have been told. should be soon. Definition of soon is unknown.
What does options capped at 8 bucks mean!
Congrats B.B. so happy for us all. Die hards win!