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Here is a previous post about P/E s by Fernando
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/replies.aspx?msg=48174964
I also believe that that there is an inverse relationship between exchange level and manipulation
Pink Sheets= High level manipulation
OTC
Amex
Naz
NYSE = Lower level manipulation
Dont ask me to produce a study but i dont think i am alone in this idea.
What a joke .They drag it down a dime on low volume trades in the last 5 minutes.If they dont get this stock off the Amex im gonna go on Prozac !!!!!
And finally, though it's been on and off my radar for a while, China MediaExpress Holdings Inc (AMEX:CCME) really didn't become trade-worthy until today. What changed? In simplest terms, CCME has moved above a relatively important resistance line at $13.10, but it has done so in a manner that is sustainable... one of the major problems this small cap stock faced the last time it made its way above $13.10.
The China MediaExpress chart below is actually quite clear - it's been range-bound between $10.46 and $14.83 since November, but within that range, other horizontal support and resistance lines have taken shape. The $13.10 mark is one of them.... or was anyway.
Yes, there's still the major ceiling at $14.83 that China MediaExpress Holdings Inc must contend with at some point, but a little optimism may be merited. This consolidation phase, though not net bullish, has not been net bearish either. It has, however, given potential CCME buyers a chance to regroup and gather more troops. And yes, I see the underpinnings of a breakout from the consolidation range; today's a decent (and a little trade-worthy) step towards that.
http://www.smallcapnetwork.com/Take-the-Hint-The-Trade-Worthiness-of-BG-CCME-GKK-Assessed/s/article/view/p/mid/3/id/272/
Looks even better today
Special MACD Algorithm List for 04/28/2010
http://stockoracle.blogspot.com/2010/04/special-macd-algorithm-list-for_4917.html
http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/charts/chartdl.aspx?iax=1&Symbol=CCME
Stocks With "Rockstar" P/E Ratios To Watch (April 29, 2010)
http://www.creditcardoutlaw.com/my-blog/2010/04/stocks-with-rockstar-pe-ratios-to-watch-april-29-2010.html
China MediaExpress Holdings Inc CCME 422.89M 6.66
CCME $13 in AH trading.BIDU helping lets see if we get follow through or same pattern.Usually when i start posting it falls.But BIDU should help.China stocks overall are at a 6 month low and their has been a major disconnect.So maybe sentiment will begin to swing back and money will follow growth and value.
Nice close !!
Agreed.Just the fact that they have been included in a comparison pleased me.In the recent past CCME was not even mentioned in articles when VISN and FMCN were written about.
Is This Stock a Buy?
By Tim Hanson
April 27, 2010 |
ShareThisIf you follow growth stocks, small-cap stocks, China stocks, or some combination of the three (small-cap China growth, anyone?), chances are you noticed that VisionChina Media is down some 50% in about two months.
When a stock drops that much, it gets my attention. That's because dumpster-diving can be a very profitable activity. So what's the outlook for VisionChina Media? And is it a buy?
Meet our contestant
VisionChina's business, in which it distributes television content and advertising to buses and subways in China, was appealing to investors for a number of reasons.
First, it was fast-growing. Sales were up more than 250% in 2008 and more than 70% through the first half of 2009. Second, it was light on capital, with operating expenditures checking in at less than 20% of sales in 2008. Third, it had a strong balance sheet with more than $100 million in net cash. Finally, it was wildly profitable, with better than 60% gross and 40% operating margins in 2008.
All of this propelled the stock up to more than $20 per share. Then, however, the advertising market in China began to weaken and Vision's results began to suffer. The stock was trading for over $8 at the beginning of March and closed yesterday at less than $5.
What happened
As advertising rates drop in China, Vision's sales are slowing and profit margins are narrowing. In fact, sales were up just 3% in the fourth quarter and the company's gross margin dropped to 45%.
This problem was compounded by the company's decision to purchase DMG Media, the operator of digital mobile TVs in the Shanghai subway system, for $160 million in cash and stock. That move dramatically increased the company's fixed costs and weakened its balance sheet, at a time (the present) when it doesn't look prudent to have done either of those things.
All of this resulted in the company issuing first-quarter 2010 guidance of "no less than $22 million" in sales. Analysts suggest that portends a significant net loss. Put it all together, and VisionChina is no longer fast-growing, no longer has a strong balance sheet, and is no longer wildly profitable. So you can understand why the market has soured on the stock.
So is it a buy?
My problem with VisionChina's guidance is that by my estimate, it implies a near 50% drop in the rate the company charges advertisers. We all know advertising is a cyclical industry, but that's a pretty violent decline. It also stands out because industry peers Focus Media (Nasdaq: FMCN), AirMedia (Nasdaq: AMCN), and China MediaExpress Holdings (AMEX: CCME) are planning for much stronger relative results in the first half of 2010.
That said, all of these companies are focusing their expansion on China's tier 2 and tier 3 markets, where consumers have less discretionary income and advertising rates presumably are lower. Thus, it's unclear where rates will settle out as the advertising environment rebounds in China, given the potential revenue-mix shifts. While VisionChina's networks in Beijing and Shanghai are premium assets that should command premium prices, revenue and margins will be down if growth largely takes place in tier 2 and smaller cities such as Harbin and Chengdu.
Yet the magnitude of that drag is difficult to know, and any valuation of VisionChina will vary widely depending on our ad rate assumption. If we believe in the Chinese consumer, and that Chinese companies and multinationals will try to build well-known nationwide brands in China, then we would forecast a brisk advertising recovery in all markets. By that logic, we should buy VisionChina stock at today's prices, even if we have to ride out a rough first quarter. If, however, we believe that it will take a much longer time to bridge the gap between China's rich and poor, then VisionChina's stock still doesn't quite look like a bargain.
There are no called strikes in investing
I'm holding off on VisionChina for now, and continuing to gather information. My thesis is that the best performing part of China this year will be rural China, and that tier 2 and tier 3 cities will continue to struggle, given all of their excess capacity in real estate. That would mean a rough ride for VisionChina, its ad rates, and its investors.
If, however, I got your attention with my rural China thesis, then I encourage you to check our Motley Fool Global Gains special report The China Rural Boom Basket: 5 Ways to Play the Fastest-Growing Niche in China. It's free to download from our website with a free, 30-day Global Gains guest membership. Just click here to get started.
This article was first published on March 26, 2010. It has been updated.
Tim Hanson is co-advisor of Motley Fool Global Gains. He does not own shares of any company mentioned. The Motley Fool often anthropomorphizes its disclosure policy, but that hurts its
feelings.
http://www.fool.com/investing/international/2010/04/27/is-this-stock-a-buy.aspx
Interesting Moniker and excellent posts.
Thanks
If you look at the posters history on yahoo you can see that it looks like an authentic email post.Usually fabrications are newly made up identities.As far as his English.I have to laugh people who are young would do well to learn Chinese.I never criticize anyones second language.People who criticize a persons second language can usually only speak one language.
CCME News - This Stock Will Eventually Make a Big Run
Posted on 04/16/10 at 8:54am by SuperMan
Read Press Release
China MediaExpress Holdings, Inc. Announces Addition of 527 Express Buses in Its Existing Network
Press Release Source: China MediaExpress Holdings, Inc. On Friday April 16, 2010, 8:45 am
FUJIAN, China--(BUSINESS WIRE)--China MediaExpress Holdings, Inc. (NYSE Amex: CCME) (“CME” or “Company”), China’s largest television advertising operator on inter-city express buses, today announced that it has signed a framework agreement with a media company to purchase the exclusive right to operate television screens on 527 express buses originating from the city of Huizhou in the Guangdong province. This agreement grants the Company the exclusive right to provide television programming and advertisements on 527 express buses managed by one bus operator, for a period of five years which commenced on April 1, 2010. According to the framework agreement, CME paid a one-time fee of RMB 50,000 per bus for the acquisition of the operating right to the media company and will pay a monthly concession fee to the bus operator over the term of the contract.
Guangdong is one of the richest provinces of China, with the highest GDP among all the provinces, contributes approximately 12% of China's national economic output, and is home to the production facilities and offices of many multi-national and Chinese corporations. In addition, Guangdong’s provincial capital, Guangzhou which is China’s third largest city, after Beijing and Shanghai and its economic hub Shenzhen, are amongst the most populous and fast growing cities in China. Furthermore, Guangdong has one of the most developed highway system in China. Each of the 21 administrative divisions of the Guangdong province is well connected through an extensive network of highways, which by the end of 2010 is expected to be more than 3,000 miles long.Zheng Cheng, CME’s Founder and CEO, noted, “This framework agreement comes on the heels of our contract with the organizers of the Asian Games in the city of Guangzhou to display a 30 second advertisement promoting the games on our network of buses and, the agreement to purchase the exclusive right to operate television screens on 124 express buses originating from the city of Shenzhen, both of which we announced last month.”
“As advertisers are accelerating their efforts to grow their sales beyond the first- and second-tier cities into less developed markets, we are confident that they will continue to view our large network of buses and wide geographic coverage, which covers many of the third-tier cities, as a great advertising platform to promote their products and services to a large number of travelers at a very competitive cost. We will continue to look for additional opportunities to expand our current network both organically and through similar acquisitions of the operating rights from other local media companies.”
http://www.benzinga.com/227689/ccme-news-this-stock-will-eventually-make-a-big-run
Sunday, April 18, 2010
Top 10 Advertising Stocks with Highest Return on Equity: ARB, VCI, CCME, CNYD, ISIG, CMM, SBAY, SGRP, OMC, VCLK (Apr 18, 2010)
Below are the top 10 Advertising stocks with highest Return on Equity ratio for the last 12 months. Three Chinese companies (CCME, CNYD, CMM) are on the list.
Arbitron Inc. (NYSE:ARB) has the 1st highest Return on Equity in this segment of the market. Its ROE was 524.38% for the last 12 months. Its net profit margin was 10.95% for the same period. Valassis Communications, Inc. (NYSE:VCI) has the 2nd highest Return on Equity in this segment of the market. Its ROE was 129.30% for the last 12 months. Its net profit margin was 2.98% for the same period. China MediaExpress Holdings Inc (AMEX:CCME) has the 3rd highest Return on Equity in this segment of the market. Its ROE was 100.84% for the last 12 months. Its net profit margin was 43.48% for the same period. China Yida Holding, Co. (NYSE:CNYD) has the 4th highest Return on Equity in this segment of the market. Its ROE was 39.26% for the last 12 months. Its net profit margin was 49.76% for the same period. Insignia Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ:ISIG) has the 5th highest Return on Equity in this segment of the market. Its ROE was 39.21% for the last 12 months. Its net profit margin was 12.92% for the same period.
China Mass Media Corp. (ADR) (NYSE:CMM) has the 6th highest Return on Equity in this segment of the market. Its ROE was 36.34% for the last 12 months. Its net profit margin was 25.01% for the same period. Subaye Inc (NASDAQ:SBAY) has the 7th highest Return on Equity in this segment of the market. Its ROE was 23.81% for the last 12 months. Its net profit margin was 25.22% for the same period. SPAR Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:SGRP) has the 8th highest Return on Equity in this segment of the market. Its ROE was 21.69% for the last 12 months. Its net profit margin was 0.71% for the same period. Omnicom Group Inc. (NYSE:OMC) has the 9th highest Return on Equity in this segment of the market. Its ROE was 20.31% for the last 12 months. Its net profit margin was 7.17% for the same period. ValueClick, Inc. (NASDAQ:VCLK) has the 10th highest Return on Equity in this segment of the market. Its ROE was 16.20% for the last 12 months. Its net profit margin was 14.56% for the same period
http://www.cnanalyst.com/2010/04/top-10-advertising-stocks-with-highest-return-on-equity-arb-vci-ccme-cnyd-isig-cmm-sbay-sgrp-omc-vcl.html
Sorry for the negative posts.The stock action has been wearing me out lately.I have to stop focusing on the day to day noise.I know nothing has changed and thats a good thing.Not being patient has hurt me in investing.When i take emotion out of the equation i am a better investor.
Also i emailed Jackie and the Email came back to me.WTF ?
I sent him and the Starr group a message to please address the internet rumor about Starr shorting the stock.I got nothing from Starr and Jackies lams email was returned undeliverable.I had emailed him in the past ?
Investors are just getting worn down by a management team that seems to have no sense on investor relations.You can have the most beautiful women in the world but if she wont take a bath and wears dirty old clothes its hard to see her beauty.I am getting tired a do nothing management.Maybe i miss estimated this company
I posted this article because maybe I'm reading it wrong.The article before had CCME with ROE at 101 % and then he says they missed the cut because of not having enough rising ROE.
Am i missing something or reading the conclusion wrong ?
'Second Chance' Charts of AEZS and CCME, 'Little Chance' for JOEZ
http://www.smallcapnetwork.com/Second-Chance-Charts-of-AEZS-and-CCME-Little-Chance-for-JOEZ/s/article/view/p/mid/3/id/257/
Lets see the average slow growth Dow stock up over 4% in the first quarter while companies generally growing at 5 to 10 times faster with overall better balance sheets grew at less than 3 % .We have a lot of catching up to do.
http://www.docstoc.com/docs/32330665/Halter-USX-China-Index-Up-286-for-First-Quarter-2010/
Did not say it wasn't a possibility.I said i don't believe that is what is happening.Nobody knows but i believe market forces are more a possibility than manipulation.I waver on the side of naivety as opposed to conspiratory theories.Yet we are all but guessing.
Maybe I'm naive but i don't think there is a " they " as in one fund or person that has CCME in a holding pattern.I believe that you have a large group of many investors that have doubled their money in a year and some of them are taking profit.100% within a year is hard to look in the face for most pros without locking in.I know that many big insiders still cant sell yet but other investors can sell .Also don't forget tax time and some savvy people need money.I really appreciate Fernando's expertise on all issues CCME.I barely have on arm around her and i am confident.
I don't believe what is holding CCME back is short interest.The regular short interest for the stock is less than 3% and less than 1 day to cover. I don't believe that includes naked shorts but they came off the Reg short list and frankly they would not use your shares for this .
http://shortsqueeze.com/?symbol=ccme&submit=Short+Quote%99
My opinion is that
1) People bought warrants and cheap shares that have doubled in value.Some investors who got in early have sold vigorously last week.That volume selling has stopped for now.The stock has been in a logical process of back filling and this is a healthy process
2) Another reason is that China companies have been out of favor due to uncertainly , Yuan , US Govt complaining , bubble talk etc.
3) Eventually a good amount of locked up shares will be liquid , earnings will slow to a degree plus the company just came out with their first 10Q , some investors are waiting.
4) They raised 100 million and have sat on it for 4 months.Where is an acquisition ? More bus contracts ? When you borrow that amount you usually have a more explicit plan.
A side question is that money in Yuan or Dollars ? If it is Yuan the value has increased that could be a positive.
5) Sell side coverage and noise is non existent.Amex vs Naz doesnt help.
Now you can find holes in all the above arguments and that would be fair but none of the reasons above are reasons to sell.In-fact they are reasons to buy because of the PEG imbalance.
All short term items above
CCME article based on technicals.We do need a breakout of this range eventually.Not much meat in article and i am not a technician but i post because it was published on small cap network
http://www.smallcapnetwork.com/Booms-Busts-Outlooks-for-CCME-CPBY-and-ECOF/s/article/view/p/mid/3/id/252/
I agree with your assesment.I think some big fish who got in earlier has been selling out.If someone held a large amount of warrants and converted at the end its concieveable they could hold a large amount of stock .Is that possible ?The only other possibility is a hedge shorting which i highly doubt.This is more than the little guy getting out.Not to say we are little collectively we all hold a large amount of the trading float.I just hope it ends soon.We also need the Naz uplisting and you would think Jackie would get a better pr frontman.
Thanks
We have to keep our sense of humor or the insanity of the uninformed will make us snap.Good to see you posting.
http://twitter.com/super_trades
He has a very good track record.
Imho
HTJ
Read this posters take on the 10K
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=48502983
I dont care if underdog ,toto , hooch , lassie and snoopdog sell.
Oh i thought you said superdog sold.I was worried
I am not selling my core until the volcano erupts and lava starts to flow to the sea.Which should be over 20.
http://twitter.com/super_trades
I know nobody likes a sell off.But if you look at CCME over the past several months its history is to have explosive volume and price surges followed by strong selling.At least that has been its MO in the past few months.We traded a third of todays huge volume in the first ten minutes today.The share turnover has been tremendous over the past month alone.I know there are many people on the board holding since the single digits but the share rotation that has occured during the high volume days is going to give CCME a stronger base by placing shares in the hands of many people who's cost is much higher.So although the rotation is painful it can be very constructive for long term holders.
Great repost from the yahoo board .Its hard to sift through the sewage over there but this post is worth a repost here
"There's no way this stock won't move much higher as the story continues to unfold. Things aren't going to get worse as time passes, they will get even better - there's an ever-growing mountain of cash, plenty of organic growth to come, already-great margins that will improve with increasing direct sales, government imposed monopoly until 2012, existing contracts for 3-8 years, company's choice when to raise rates, accretive acquisitions in the months ahead... it's kind of ridiculous actually. Still a great opportunity for anyone already aware of the story, IMO, they even low-balled their guidance so positive surprises are pretty much built in."
Exactly correct. And that is my point. If you have been long the stock for a while, waiting for the FY results to be released, you have to be thrilled. Better still is the guidance, which as you so rightly point out is conservative because it does not account for the 10,000 new buses they will add to their fold. So clearly you wouldn't sell.
If you are new to the stock and you understand how cheap the stock is on any metric you choose (earnings, peer valuation, cash on hand, book value) you certainly aren't going to sell.
If you are a fund manager looking for growth CCME has, without exception, every attribute you are looking for. Growth on the top line, the bottom line, great margins, plenty of cash and generating more, blah blah blah. You should be buying hand over fist.
Yet the stock goes down. 3 days in a row. After the Deloitte and Touche backed numbers say "buy, buy ,buy!!! It's worth $25."
That is totally illogical.
Also watching L2 it looks like a concerted effort to knock price down with tons of staggered sells.The selling level looked organized not mom and pop
I agree with your reasoning.
Also we could have some shorts.I also wonder if some investors were holding large positions from prior warrant conversion and decided to take advantage of price spike.This action has happened with every spike this year.
Volume Explosion in less than 5 minutes !!!
Yeah Baby !!!!!!!!!!!
Good volume nice movement so far
Thanks Dan
Appreciate your expertise.
On a trading note.
It would be nice to see CCME get half the P/E expansion that its much riskier counter parts have.Hard to tell though FMCN doesnt even list a P/E when you pull up a yahoo quote.
Boy CCME best days are in front of her or should i say under her.
If we are down to nitpicking at this level i think its a pretty squeaky clean 10K.Considering who the auditor is i feel very comfortable