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About margin
Teecee,
please dont refer to my enthusiasm and follow it up w/ a speech about the dangers of margin....it makes me look bad....and doesnt jive w/ my "conservative" approach to idc...capeche el tiante
Capeche. Let me state for the record that you do not recommend margin buying. However your opinion carries a lot of weight with folks here and they might pick up on your enthusiasm without remembering your conservative approach to IDCC.
Arthritis,
It’s really thoughtful of you to worry about the shorts. I don’t warn them because folks playing that game must believe they are pretty savvy and have a high risk tolerance already. Also there are stricter brokerage requirements to qualify to short sell which eliminates many of the little guys who were my target audience. Stock trading can be a very emotional thing, and people tend to buy when stocks are up and optimism abounds and sell when they are down with gloom and doom coming from all corners.
I know you are very concerned with balance, so how about this for you.
Long term holders who trade your shares be careful of selling because you may end up buying back fewer shares at higher prices.
TFWG,
I am thrilled that NEC is doing so well, however I do not believe it can propel the stock price on its own. It certainly does give us a solid base of recurring earnings that will support the price on a fundamental basis, and better than expected results should help the stock price, but it won’t launch it like a 3G license with one of the big boys would. Remember that the strong NEC earnings are not going to be a surprise to those that really follow IDCC. I don’t see IDCC getting to eps of $1.50 for 2004 without more paying licensees than we have right now.
JimLur and dws,
Thanks for your support.
Memphis70,
My message was not for experienced traders. When the price is rising and there is great enthusiasm some folks who aren’t as sophisticated might look for ways to leverage their capital.
All of these tools are available for knowledgeable investors...
They are also available to the inexperienced, who were my target audience.
if you aren't confortable doing it, then count your beans and do what you think is right.....
YOU are giving ME advice and insulting me. Oh, maybe I should go on a rant. Nah.
BUT.... this board is not supposed to be an Ann Landers advice column.... keep your investment theories to yourself....
Sorry, but the board’s purpose is to help everyone understand IDCC and how to make money by investing in it. JimLur supported my post, so I rest my case.
and the backhanded comment about Mickey and margin was inappropriate.... seems like some of you revel in others misfortune.. Now... I feel better.
By pointing out the dangers I hope to avoid having others experience misfortune. Glad you feel better. Maybe if there is a psychologist on the board he could explain to you why you took a general warning so personally, but you already know, don’t you?
Don't buy on margin
There is a lot of optimism right now with hopes and expectations that big news is just around the corner. Two very respected posters, JimLur and Teecee, both are reminding us of the Wall Street wisdom of "volume preceeds price", and with the recent nice run and much heavier volume the last two trading days it's easy to get excited.
While for most stocks volume is an outstanding indicator of price movement, there has not been a strong correlation for IDCC over the past few years that I've been invested in the stock. In fact, this run up had price rising on low volume, and only the last couple of days has the volume stepped up. It is a very good sign, but be prudent with your $'s.
Here is a possible explanation for the recent activity. At the 15/16 level long term folks are pretty much fully invested. Shorters don't see a lot of downside and traders see this as "dead money" until resolution of arbitration, which looks to be next summer. Two weeks ago some folks started buying to try to get in ahead of earnings as sales have been strong for our licensees, and in anticipation of the court date. With new buyers and no new sellers, the price begins to climb. With the dates getting closer, more people buy a little more as they see the price moving up. The price goes through the 50 dma and now we start popping up on some technical screens. More strong price performance brings in the momentum players, and now we get volume and even stronger relative performance. Folks are smelling smoke and guessing about the fire. They may be exactly right, there may be big news coming any day. However, IDCC's management has historically done an outstanding job of avoiding leaks prior to news so unless there is another party involved that is buying up IDCC I don't think it is based on inside information.
It's times like these when the believers and optimists get all fired up (heck, I'm all fired up), but don't let the excitement convince you to play games with options or margin unless you really want to gamble with money you could use to buy and hold. When the big news hits there will be a few folks who make a killing, but it is a losers game.
Someone is turning up the volume
and I like what I'm hearing. This is the fun part of the rollercoaster ride! Wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
Insider buying
The insider purchases were exercises of compensatory options awarded to management. The exercise prices are well below the current market price. The positive is that the recent buys were not sold. However, because of the significant difference in tax rates between capital gains and ordinary income, this buy may have a "sell" scheduled for a year from now.
Do your due diligence. A good place to start is
http://www.wirelessledger.com/
This website was constructed by someone who believes IDCC is a great stock to own, so be aware of that. The reason he believes it is due to his knowledge of the stock, which is presented on his website. There are links to his sources that you can follow to do your own research and come to your own conclusions.
I believe IDCC at these levels has an incredible risk/reward profile. This is a volatile, risky stock. It is not for the faint of heart. If IDCC is successful in 3G licensing this stock will soar. However, I would not view the insider option purchases as a major bullish signal for the short term. IMO, expected strong earnings on the 13th and hope for progress on arbitration after a hoped for denial of Nokia's motion on the 24th are what's moving the stock right now. If those things come to pass and there is evidence of some momentum towards getting licenses then the recent strength will continue. Positive resolution of the Nokia and Samsung arbitrations or the signing of a significant 3G license will cause the price to JUMP. If these things do not occur over the next few weeks, then I believe the price will remain in the teens until concrete progress on 2G or 3G, or we get within 3-4 months of the expected arbitration ruling.
JimLur and family
Personally I have the greatest respect for Jim Lurgio and I am deeply saddened by the news. Please keep us posted as time permits.
Know that you have the thoughts, prayers and best wishes of many, many people with you at this time. If there is anything you need, no matter how unusual, put out a call on this board. We have quite an eclectic group here and there's a good chance that someone could help. I promise you there are countless folks in this little corner of cyberspace that would be proud to be able to lend a hand.
Welcome wallstrpro
Da-yumm. I've been addictively following this stock and JimLur's message boards on IDCC for almost 4 years now. Yet you've quickly and succinctly summarized my feelings on IDCC in a few short sentences, including the appropriate recognition of the potential downside. If anyone asks why they should invest in IDCC, I can point them to your post for the Reader's Digest version. Bill Dalglish and Rmarchma have written reference materials for those interested in further reading.
I guess the prospect of earning $2-$3 per share in 2005-2006 was a key factor in my decision to invest in IDCC. To be conservative, if you put 20x on FY05 earnings of say $2, you get $40. So the upside potential here is tremendous. So why is the stock valued the way it is now? because the Street hates uncertainty. I would also venture to add that perhaps the Street expected IDCC to sign up a couple more licensees since the ERICY settlement last March. However, lets not forget that prior to the NOK arbitration announcement, IDCC was trading at $28 with expectations that it would hit $35 by year-end.
So to sum it up, IMHO there are very few opportunities similar to IDCC in terms of upside potential. Is it possible for the stock to go down. Absolutely. Is it possible to languish in a tight trading range. Sure. Still, long term (in my book 2-3 years), patient investors will be rewarded handsomely.
Data and lawyers
there's been a material change in the patents and enforcability since the "license" was "signed".
IF Ericy's contract is a valid trigger for Nokia under the contract, then does it matter if the patents are not enforceable? I assume the contract regarding Phase II including the 2G "license" was properly "signed". If IDCC and Nokia entered into a valid contract, subsequent changes in market should not affect the terms or enforceability of the contract, yes?
If it were determined that IDCC's 2G licenses were truly worth a 15% royalty rate, could IDCC go back and say, "Whoa, we undercharged you, so forget what ERICY agreed to, we're going to negotiate a new rate based on the new information." I don't think so and I don't think Nokia can back out now either.
I'm NOT a lawyer, I'm just trying to use common sense, which I KNOW is a mistake where the law is concerned, so let me know if I'm wrong.
I like the repurchase
and I'm not worried about the timing.
The timing of the stock repurchase is suspect..Either the Company feels that they will have positive cash flow and show a profit for the Third Quarter...or Management is oblivious to the fact that Samsung may be filing a Motion to unseal the Ericsson file, any month now..
I'm hoping management is looking long term, and they believe that they will have most of the market licensed for 3G at a reasonable rate. They know the stock market is fickle and unpredictable, so instead of trying to find an absolute bottom, they chose to buy at what they believe are very cheap (compared to two years from now) levels. 2G will be a nice bonus when it comes, but 3G is the real money. Every one of us holding IDCC just had our ownership increased by ~4%. The company still has a very strong cash position and when Nokia and Samsung are resolved it will get better, hopefully significantly better.
OT: Nice work guys
Great discussion on the Samsung issue. My thanks to Dish, Loop, Rmarachma, F6 and all the others who have contributed questions and opinions on the issue. My thinking is in synch with Dishfan, who articulated it well. Great to see it discussed and so intelligently. Do we now KNOW the truth? Nope, but we sure have a firm grasp on the issues and possibilities.
Thanks for the great posts. It's amazing how great DD can be when it is done as a group project with bright, knowledgeable folks. I'm grateful to all that contribute.
Frank
Form 8-K for INTERDIGITAL COMMUNICATIONS CORP
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
************************************************
Link
http://biz.yahoo.com/e/030924/idcc8-k.html
************************************************
24-Sep-2003
Other Events
Item 5. Other Events.
InterDigital Communications Corporation ("Company") announced today that Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. ("Samsung") has notified the Company of Samsung's election to initiate the contractual dispute resolution process to determine the applicability of the terms of the Ericsson and Sony Ericsson license agreements to the royalty obligations of Samsung under its license agreement with the Company's subsidiary InterDigital Technology Corporation. This election establishes the timetable for senior executive meetings and any future initiation of arbitration. Samsung has informed the Company that it believes resolution of this matter is unlikely without arbitration and that it intends to seek access to documents previously sealed by the Federal Court related to the now-settled Ericsson litigation.
Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the Registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized.
INTERDIGITAL COMMUNICATIONS CORPORATION
By: /S/ LAWRENCE F. SHAY
----------------------------------
Lawrence F. Shay
Vice President and General Counsel
Dated: September 24, 2003
The link worked for me - Adobe file
However, this is just the motion for oversized reply, nothing of substance. Not important if you can't view it.
FWIW, when I clicked on the link, RealDownload automatically downloaded the file (.pdf) and when I clicked on the file it was opened by Adobe Acrobat reader. Maybe those more computer literate can help if there are questions.
AMS, you are wrong in so many ways
I do the books for a VC firm here in silicon valley which is audit annually by E&Y. They do a funny thing with our investments - it's called "Mark to market", where the investments are valued for financial statement purposes at their fair market value. The related income or expense is reported. We mark to market in our interim reports to the investors of the fund as well. When an investor enters or leaves the fund, it is at the Net Asset Value at that point in time, not the cost basis. While it's not a publicly traded company, I'm sure there are others out there following the same accounting policy that you could find.
Regardless, accounting standards DO NOT represent absolute accuracy. They report HISTORICAL COST, not VALUE. Gains are real whether or not they've been converted into cash.
But please, don't stop with this foolishness. I'll let you get in the last word. Just tell me, when you sell IDCC stock on the nasdaq, when does the profit or loss become real? When the sale is executed, when the dollars are delivered to your broker, when the dollars are converted into your currency, or when you withdraw the money from your account. It's really tough following your "reasoned argument".
Perhaps a lottery ticket filled in but not purchased may better suit some IDCC investors.
Wrong again. The comparison should be of a winning lottery ticket not yet cashed. You own the ticket, the value is known and you can convert it to cash whenever you want. I guess you would value the winning ticket at $1, whereas I would value it at the amount I could get in cash today.
I do wish you'd stop telling people you're an accountant. It's embarrassing.
To quote BB, "What a maroon."
AMS, you leave me shaking my head
I’ll discuss two of your “reasoned arguments”, one that is wrong and the other that is absurd.
A takeover would be good for the stock as it would ensure the current management failures are terminated.
If IDCC is taken over, IDCC will be a small part of a very big company. IDCC’s success will be a little piece of the overall results of the company. The share price would be driven by the rest of the company’s results – IDCC’s performance might add 5%-10% to the overall results. IDCC’s potential return as an independent entity is far greater than it will be as part of a conglomerate. There is also more risk, which is what creates the opportunity for those able to handle risk to get exceptional returns. If you think management is truly as incompetent and dishonest as you say, how can you invest in the company when people like that have great power over your investment? I don’t think they are dishonest. I don’t think they are geniuses or idiots. I do believe the company is positioned to make a lot of money from 3G. Any competent jockey riding Secretariat could win a race, some by more then others. I’d rather have an average jockey and bet to win rather than put a great jockey up but have it run as part of an entry and bet on it to place. The place money is just about a lock, but not much of a payoff. The win ticket could get you 5-1 or better.
It may be somewhat of a shock, but unrealized gains, count for nothing. A profit or loss only happens when the shares are disposed. Therefore you have made nothing.
Unless your talking about taxes, you are flat out wrong. How can an accountant make such a stupid statement? Why do you get so upset when the price of IDCC goes down? If you don’t sell, you have no loss according to you, so it doesn’t matter, right, Einstein?
Stocks are liquid and the value is known. The fact that you do not convert it into cash does not change the value of your investment or the gain or loss you’ve realized. Let me give you a simple example that proves the point.
Two people hold the same stock. One never trades, the other trades once each month, selling and buying back the stock back within minutes. If the stock was up, you would say that the trader had gains while the holder did not. Yet in fact they are in the same position (the trader would likely be slightly worse off, due to commissions and the bid ask difference).
You can argue tax law, conservative accounting rules that prohibit booking unrealized gains or any other fanciful theory you want, but the undeniable economic truth is that unrecognized gains and losses are real. If that doesn’t convince you, let me ask one last question. Have you ever owned stock on margin and had the price fall? Brokerage houses seem to think they are quite real.
Repurchased shares not automatically available for options
The buy back of IDCC shares is a good thing for those of use who oppose dilution. Any option grants would have to be approved under the same criteria as they are now. I'm not positive, but that is my impression.
If I'm wrong, someone please correct me.
As a practical matter, after the landslide defeat of the option issue and the rather pointed questions about insider sales, I think any option activity would generate too much negative publicity for management to go down that path.
I like the buyback
I'd much rather have IDCC use its strong cash position to buy back stock at low levels then hold it and get 1% interest. It also un-does some of the dilution we've experienced.
Contrary to what some may state, the buy back does not mean the shares are available for option grants. Two completely separate issues.
jai, re: Saga of IDCC
Next we have 3G revenue. We need to generate 1.5% royalties from NOKIA, SAM, ERIC. If this is accomplished we get to $100 if not we don't. ... If NOKIA succeeds to beat IDCC into submission and gets they to accept a 3G rate that is under 1% then IDCC will become an also ran and become irrelevant.
I WISH IDCC would get 1.5% on 3G. I don't see it happening. Management indicated their expected rate for 3G was somewhat below the 1%-3% they wanted for 2G. However, even if IDCC's rate is only 0.25% this will be a very good long term investment, especially at these levels. The 3G market is going to be huge and if IDCC can successfully license 90% or more of the market the profits will be in dollars per shares, not cents. The growth of the 3G market will = growth in IDCC revenues, which should transfer into a nice PE ratio (20 or more). So if IDCC announces tomorrow that they settled the arbitration with Nokia on 2G by granting a fully paid up license for $1 AND they signed a 3G contract at 0.75%, I'd be buying (big time), not selling. The long term value is in 3G.
I'm not saying it's okay for IDCC to roll over to Nokia - I believe they need to go to the mat and show they are not a pushover. However, if they are getting pushed over into a nice pile of 3G $'s, then I can live with it.
L2V, thanks for the synopsis (eom)
Data, thanks for your analysis
I do believe that QCOM is the indemnifier. Your breakdown...
the "indemnifier" can only indemnify for those patents IDCC has given them the right to do so with, or 2)the indemnifier could be saying, all of IDCC's patents are not applicable if you use ours instead.
I tend to believe the prior is happening.
...makes sense to me, as well as your explanation of the hold up in 3G licensing (paying twice for the same IP). While it's disappointing to see that IDCC may not get paid for some of it's patent portfolio (because QCOM has already included some in it's bundle), I do believe that IDCC holds valuable IP that QCOM does not have the right to sublicense, and therefore there will be 3G licenses, just not for the rates I'd been hoping for.
Your post really clarified the situation in my mind. I could be wrong, but at least now I have a complete scenario that is logical and plausible. Thanks for your contributions.
Frank
Can someone clarify this sentence
"Nokia is seeking a determination that it has no royalty obligations to InterDigital based on its licensing agreement with Ericsson, InterDigital said."
Is it saying that the ERICY settlement does not trigger a royalty rate, and therefore royalty obligation, for Nokia.
or
Based on the ERICY settlement, Nokia owes nothing for Phase II.
The second one seems ludicrous, but I'd like IDCC to clarify it.
I can't believe Nokia would be contending the ERICY settlement was not arms length. IF the settlement had contained other matters (like a partnership deal), then Nokia could say the parties agreed to bump up the 2G rate and adjust the $'s in the other agreement so that ERICY ends up paying the same amount but forces NOK to pay more. However, since IDCC got NOTHING from ERICY other than the 2G and 2.5G royalties and a promise to be our friend, it just does not make sense.
My gut told me this would go to arbitration because that's how things work in the wonderful world of IDCC. My head said no, not this time. Management stated and reiterated actual figures. They must be sure. (I still think they were.) Should of listened to my gut - it is far bigger than my brain.
If IDCC cannot get agreement that will generate $'s in the range stated, I hope they go all the way this time. No win/win compromise. Until IDCC goes all the way and wins and the other guy LOSES, they will face these tactics. Until other businesses perceive a downside to f'ing with IDCC, this will be our fate. Forget trying to be everyone's friend. Be their damn tax collector. If they don't like it, tough $hit. Play hardball and don't be afraid to knock down a few guys to make the point. I don't care if we are popular, I do care if we get paid.
bajaken, timing of PR
Why would IDCC make this announcement with 24 minutes left before the market closed?
Because they were not the only ones who knew about it. Nokia people could let their friends and families know and they could short IDCC. This way, they put it out as soon as it was a done deal. Someone mentioned earlier that there was a lot of volume just prior to the announcement although I don't know if that was true or not.
Personally I'm glad IDCC puts out news during market hours. Those of us who watch the stock have a chance to react to news quickly. If they'd waited until after hours (assuming there was no leak) the price would've opened at whatever it opens at tomorrow and all of us would be in the same boat.
...sees what he wants to see and disregards the rest
You can take almost any stock and find periods where it has out performed and under performed the market. The idea is to look at your investment horizon and see how it's performed to date and what your expectations are for your expected holding time.
From your posts, it seems that your primary concern with management is what they do and say to influence investors. Yow feel they should be constantly putting out good news and buying the stock, never selling. Their stock trading activity is and should only be governed by the SEC rules. News should be put out whenever it happens, good or bad. Managements primary task is to run the company. If they do that well the stock price will take care of itself. Investing is a long term activity. If you are running a marathon and concerning yourself with leading at every 100 yards, you will waste a lot of effort winning meaningless challanges while robbing yourself of energy needed to endure the long term.
If your on the clock I can understand your impatience. Otherwise you need to reassess your expectations.
Ziploc_1, you've got blinders on
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?d=c&c=&k=c1&t=5d&s=idcc&a=v&p=s&l=on&z=m&....
The link is getting cut off, but if you go into the Yahoo chart for IDCC and check compare to Nasdaq, you'll see it.
THIS WEEK
market flat one day, IDCC flat
market down three days, IDCC up two, down one
market up one day, IDCC down (triple witching day)
This is a small sample, far to small to make any broad generalizations. But unless your sample was just Thursday and Friday, it is enough to contradict your claim. Please run charts for 3 months, 1 year and 2 years. Look at IDCC's absolute and relative performance. It might not compare favorably to some folks hopes and expectations for IDCC (including mine), but it sure as hell looks good compared to the broader markets.
TFWG, Regarding trailing stop loss order
I don't like them because it gives the MM a shot at picking off your shares cheap. I believe that's what happened a couple of weeks ago when we fell below $22 for a very brief spike down and right back up. When the stock is falling buyers get nervous, which can lead to few buy orders and a lot of stop loss orders that were x% below a recent high. The MM swoops in, taking the price down as far as the imbalance between limit order buys and stop loss sells allows, picking up cheap shares to sell at the real equilibrium point that the stock was trading at just before and just after the little spike. If you are able to follow the stock closely, you can put in a mental stop loss. (Your broker may even be able to notify you electronically or call if the stock hits a certain level.) If the stock falls to your threshold you can sell out. It also gives you a chance to think about it if the fall is for fundamental reasons, which would lead to selling, or seems to be just market volatility which might cause you to hang on. The risk is that negative news comes out and the stock quickly falls through your stop loss level without ever being halted. Personally, I hate giving the MM an easy opportunity to steal my shares away.
I have a question that is somewhat related. I notice on IDCC and many other stocks, the first couple of trades at the open tend to be relatively far apart. What are the rules/limits on the MM's ability to buy at one price and sell at another? If IDCC closed at $25 the prior day, it will open at $24.75, next trade will spike up to $25.30, then there will be a number of trades between $25.05 and $25.10. I haven't put in a market order at the open since the day after Reagan was elected. I bought GLM at the open at $55, up $5 from the prior close. It immediately fell back to ~$51 and stayed there all day. I am very wary of the MM and hate to give them a chance to take advantage of my orders. I'd love to understand more about it.
Every time I think I'm out
they pull me back in again.
I apologize - for those sick of this subject, click on next. For those who want to slam me, have fun. If anyone actually wants to discuss the substance of my points and discuss any of the issues with me, please do it by PM or e-mail.
Speaking for myself only, my problem with the options are as follows, based on these two facts.
The cost of the option is borne not by the company, but by the shareholders directly.
Exact valuation of options is impossible.
The use of options allows for high value assets being transferred while some see them as having little or no value. Therefore, the value of compensation of those receiving options is never clearly known. Lack of clarity is not good.
Why did options become so widespread? It allowed companies with severe cash flow issues to operate while conserving cash. THIS IS NOT AN ISSUE AT IDCC. As one who thinks that IDCC is severely undervalued and will be in an extremely strong cash position, I would rather pay any expense (employee or otherwise) with cash rather than stock or options.
The natural response is yeah, but how are you going to keep the good employees? Well, if we offered them cash incentives, say $10. instead of one option, then I believe they would jump at the cash. Many employees in this post bubble era actually prefer cash. Prudent and reasonable use of options to hire and retain talented people is a necessary part of business. Being careful and conservative with them is part of running a business well.
Ah, but this does not align the employees with investors. Well, if the incentives are production related I think that is better anyway. Let's say there are two companies that have identical results and expectations. One sells at 40 and the other at 20. This could be due to institutional interest, one company is sexier than the other, a big name CEO, whatever. Two years down the line both companies have put up strong results and good growth. They are still identical, but both are now selling at $30 per share. The employees at both companies were equally productive, yet one group gets big option payouts and the other doesn't. Why should one group be rewarded for working for an undervalued company while the other group gets punished for working for an overvalued company?
Investors invest because they want to take risks and they believe a company is undervalued. Employees work for a company because they need or like the work. Employees may or may not want to invest. When they get options that are worth far more than they could get in cash, hell yes they want them.
What using cash avoids is putting the compensation level more at the whims of the overall economy and market, which is what happens with fixed price options. Having production incentives rewards (or doesn't) people based on their work and not outside factors that they cannot control.
YES, executive compensation is a big issue to me.
YES, dilution is a big issue to me.
YES, I am greedy - I don't want to give away money because I made a good investment. No employees sent me anything when I made bad investment, nor should they.
NO, I do not want to micro manage the company. I will assert my rights (vote my proxy based on my opinion of the issue, not as a rubber stamp) and be vocal about two issues where management and investors have opposing interests, which are management compensation and communications.
Lastly, please, please, please anyone who wants to tell me that a 10 year option at market price has no or little value, let me give you some free money. I will pay you $10 a share for a 5 year option. Like IDCC, not only will you get the $10, you will also collect the ~$25 per share strike price! Such a deal. Act soon before I come to my senses.
For those unwilling to take me up on my offer, please do not continue to state how options cost us (shareholders) nothing.
Ams, do you ever have a point?
I won't clog up the regular board with this crap.
Yes, the United States has grown from 13 to 50 states. The whole country celebrates it's independence whether it was a state at the time or not. What is the point or relevance of your comment?
You are a debit in the sense of an expense. Thought it was obvious, but as usual, you miss the point.
Sunk cost - a cost that will not change regardless of future action. The options and stock he holds are his, period. Other than criminal abuse, there is nothing that will change that. Why bring it up. What is the point of your comment? How is it relevant.
Having a battle of wits with you is like dueling with an unarmed man.
ams, the real question
is do you truly have certification in accounting? If so, did you win it in a poker game? You are a debit to the profession.
Do you understand sunk costs? How he got the shares and if he earned them is water under the bridge. Until his board position is up for a vote it is a waste of time to debate his relative accomplishments and pay. What is your point? What are you trying to accomplish?
And since I'm here, let me clarify what the "bank holiday" (as you put it) that closed the U.S. markets last Friday was. It's called Independence Day here. It is a celebration of the United States breaking away from England and becoming an independent country. Maybe the Irish ought to try getting the British out of Ireland - oh, wait, they have for quite a while and are just to impotent to succeed.
OT - Courtesy??
It would be courteous to not report it. I still do not understand why you were so upset about his post. You've never posted to this board before, and yet feel compelled to lurk and clean up this thread. Were you a hall monitor in school? Trying to relive the good old days?
I appreciate those who TOS posts that are advertising. However when looking at the breadth of Bill's posts, his mentioning contact information on a board consisting of shareholders in IDCC may be a violation of the letter, but definitely not the spirit of the law. Participants of this board, most of whom are invested in IDCC, benefit indirectly from his work. His posts giving information for anyone who wants to reimburse him for his out of pocket expenses of keeping the website up and running seems like a minor thing to report. As you can see from the reaction on the board, this is not viewed as spam by most of the posters.
Your post is a slap in the face to him, implying that he is trying to profit by using this board inappropriately. It could cause him to decide that many people share your view and that his contribution is not appreciated. He might lose interest in maintaining the website. That would be a loss for any investor in IDCC. His website generates interest in IDCC from people who are interested in doing DD before investing.
Maybe your purpose here is to scan the boards for spam. If so, I'm sure the volume of your TOS reports will tip off the Ihub brass that you are a tattletale and not someone that is really offended. Ah well, I better let it go because from where you post and your attitude you may be an armed wacko looking to eliminate evil people who cross you.
teecee from Jersey (Just in case you want to get me)
greg s, please find another crusade
I read your post and do not see a TOS violation. He did not advertise in the commercial sense. He made people aware of his comprehensive and FREE website. He did give contact information for those who are interested in supporting his fine work. Secondly if it does constitute advertising under TOS, it is not unsolicited. Many people have requested Bill's address in order to help support the maintenance of his site. This board is about IDCC and his website provides an unmatched wealth of information and links to the sources of his information.
So thank you for your efforts to help the folks who use this board keep it free from useless and unwanted content, however I must say that ironically your post actually is the one that is useless and unwanted content. You've attacked a post that I believe offended very few folks and most IDCCers felt was appropriate.
A great many evils in this world that could use people to fight the good fight. Go find one and use your energies there.
A little time waster for the long weekend
http://www.hurtwood.demon.co.uk/Fun/copter.swf
Very simple game, yet addicting. Frustrating part is that there is no way to pause the game that I found, so if you get interrupted at all, you die.
Ronnie, thanks for the quick review
This is getting exciting. Looks like some progress was made on the contract negotiations. That coupled with Howard's reiterating the $360MM revenue is great. Nice story by AP, very positive. Would raise interest in investors who've never heard of our little gem. As time goes by the needle seems to be steadily moving away from the idiot side and towards genius. But before anyone orders any new cars, a few cautionary thoughts. The article states $360MM over the next year, which could mean between now and 6/30/04. The contracts filed with the SEC may be just for a technicality and not related to any significant progress. I'm hoping news is imminent, but my experience with IDCC has been that the news comes a bit worse than hoped for and a later than expected. Although this is the first time the expectations have been clearly stated by the company, so maybe this IS the time.
Anyway, I love the price action on IDCC. Climbing with bursts to the upside, falls back and then continuing back up. Each little bit of news pushes our base a bit higher. So whenever IDCC's stock price takes a quick dive, take a look at the chart over the last month, 3 months and year before getting panicky or depressed. Hey guys, this is the fun part.
For those bemoaning the lack of selling opportunities you need to look at the calendar. This ain't 1999. In 2001 the stock doubled, a great selling op for the traders. 2002 up around 50%, another selling op. 2003 up again 50% in six months, a damn nice return for anyone looking to sell. The great thing about this stock is that even with that great performance, I still believe this is a buying opportunity because the market continues to severely discount IDCC's price due to the lack of completed contracts. If your upset about the market not seeing what we see you're just going to have to be miserable. Not me - my new motto.............Don't worry, be happy!
The poster formerly known as fmilt.
pgstocks - IDCC valuation
The problem for IDCC is that NO ONE knows what the real numbers are. Due to the ongoing lack of 2G rates from Nokia and Samsung and the lack of 3G licenses from the bulk of the market, IDCC's revenue earned in 2002, 2003 and the future is unknown and the likely range is still quite broad. There are no "good" numbers. Those who take the time to investigate and learn about IDCC can make there own best guess as to the expected revenue stream and invest accordingly. Until there are signed agreements that include royalty rates there will not be clarity into earnings. Only when that occurs will IDCC be a candidate for investors who use screens to select stocks.
So there are two choices. You can scream about the injustice on chatboards and bemoan the low stock price, or you can continue to buy as funds come in. When the numbers are no longer estimates but facts and future earnings can be forecast using a known royalty rate and projected sales of actual licencees, then IDCC will be fairly valued, widely owned by the big money folks and will perform in line with other stocks in the market and sector. Until that happens you can still buy this undiscovered stock cheap or sell this overhyped stock before reality comes crashing in. Do your own DD and take advantage of those who are too stupid to get past Yahoo's numbers. It's useless to complain about the lack of good numbers.
The poster formerly known as fmilt
L2V, I agree with you
I don't see the comment as a change. Also, it was not a quote, but rather the reporters interpretation of what Howard said. It could be she was referring to his prior comments and he did not say anything different. The story strikes me as being old news to those on this board but we addicted IDCCers do tend to analyze every scrap to the Nth degree.
This stock will reward patience and torture those looking for a big price explosion tomorrow. I think almost all of us have had a few times when we thought the big news that was going to propel us to the moon was going to come tomorrow. After the ERICY settlement I've come to accept that IDCC probably won't be headed to the moon, and price appreciation will not be like 1999. However, I am also convinced that IDCC will succeed and that the price will rise steadily and strongly as hopes become contracts and 3G takes hold.
However, I would love to look very stupid tomorrow morning as 3G contracts are announced and the stock opens far north of here.
Today's price action
Folks, don't get too excited or depressed about whatever happens today. There is the Russell rebalancing and quarter end window dressing, which is likely to cause volatility. I don't think an article in the Philly paper that is apparently more conservative about timing is going to have a big affect on the share price.
Teecee, seems you can always make me laugh
Yes, I realize that comparing any stock to a rollercoaster is not original, but my quote is paraphrased from the warnings at amusement parks that have those rides. I still love em, especially the ones with the freefall big drops. I'd have to research it, but I gotta hunch you weren't the first to say that about a stock or IDCC either.
Anywho, as I recall, your quote was about how gut wrenching it was when the stock was rising to about 15, which I found a bit humorous and jokingly asked if you were a short. I guess for you the clackety clack of the climb up is what gets you, as you know the plunge is almost inevitable. Most folks stomachs drop when they actually are looking down the big fall, fearing it won't end. I was just trying to calm those panicky folks who start thinking the sky is falling every time IDCC drops 10-20%, even after it just ran up a few weeks earlier. So as long as the climbs keep exceeding the drops I'm havin' a blast.
Warning for IDCC shareholders
To own this stock you must be free from any heart conditions, back or neck pain and any stress disorders. This is a wild, roller coaster type ride with blind, dizzying drops, rapid climbs and jolting twists and turns. Those who hold on for the full ride will walk away with an unforgettable experience they can tell there grandkids about when they ask how the trust fund got funded.
Just repurchased all my trading shares when a limit order I threw in this morning was surprisingly filled. I thought with quarter end window dressing institutions would be buying to get a solid performer into the portfolio, but apparently I'm wrong.
Teecee - you said that the company said that the indemnifier should be easy to figure out. What was the source of that info?
Ellismd, I'll take the over on both for today!!
Great point Ziplock_1
From the shareholders point of view, taking this risk with the potential of huge rewards might be worthwhile. From [managements] point of view, the risk, even though small, might not be worth taking since you were getting rich anyway.
That is my feeling in the ERICY settlement. By settling they had a great chance to get the stock to $20 right away and lock in big profits and take away the downside risk. They have so many freakin options that being conservative made them all very rich. There was no percentage in it for them to go to court, because once can get more money than you can realistically spend, it's not worth risking getting 10x that much even if the odds are in your favor.
I try not to imagine what would have happened if we had won the suit. I sure wish we had tried. To not try and not get a SIGNED 3G contract with a decent rate was a terrible result to me. Some of the more risk adverse folks will properly point out that court decisions are a crap shoot or a coin flip due to the unpredictability of juries. I agree completely. And I want to flip a coin where heads means I lose a dollar and tails mean I win $10.
Insider selling (Awwwk, The sky is falling)
I'm an accountant and have clients that receive stock options from their company. My advice had been consistent since before the bubble began to inflate. It has been to diversify. When one has their employment and retirement invested in one company, it is not prudent to keep their assets invested in that same company (nor even the same industry, and not even the stock market unless they already have real estate and other investments to balance their overall holdings). When they are eligible to receive ongoing stock options in the company or participate in an ESPP that makes selling to diversify even more obvious. I had a few clients grumble when their company's stock zoomed during the bubble. I told them that while they could've made more, they had just lost the icing off the cake, but still had options worth tons of money, their retirement fund was huge, bonuses and perks were flowing, so don't worry that you lost potential gains by buying the "insurance policy" of diversification. After the bubble burst, some thanked me and others said they wished they had listened. I reminded them that I was not predicting that the bubble would burst, just advising them to give up some of the upside potential to eliminate some of the downside risk. While it may be tough to understand, losing out on $100,000 gain when you are worth millions is much less painful than losing $10,000 of equity when your investments and retirement plan are worth very little and layoffs are all around.
You may notice that at no time was the affect of the sales on the stock price a factor in my advice. I am advising my client to do what is best for themselves with the stock or options that they own. I was not advising company management although my advice would’ve been identical. Once options are granted, they are there to be used for the best interest of the owner as they see it. As long as they are acting within the letter and spirit of the law on insider sales, they have the same right to sell as any other shareholder. Go back and look at the stock history before big news announcements. You will see a consistent pattern of low volume and low volatility before news broke. This shows that management is not trading inappropriately on inside information and is pretty damn effective in making sure no one else is either. That is their responsibility to the outside shareholders and they are doing a great job with it.
I do understand that insider sales are viewed by the market as mildly to greatly negative, depending on the circumstances. I applaud the use of scheduled sales, which should lessen the impact of the sale. If you criticize a scheduled sale, you are basically telling insiders “your options don’t really vest until you quit or retire, cuz you ain’t goin’ to sell ‘em until then.” One person selling a small % of their ownership means nothing to me - they very well may have a need for cash. When a number of insiders sell, it tells me that there is no big news expected soon. I also understand this does hold back the price as some players jump out seeing it as dead money or potential bad news and stay on the sidelines. Since I am in this until 3G is resolved, I don’t care about the short term fluctuations, and in fact, I like the stock being held back because I am a buyer and not a seller right now. I just have to wait for cash to become available, so it works for me. When I am ready to sell, I will hope that no insider sells dampen the short term price, but if they happen I won’t fault management for using their assets for their own benefit. I am a capitalist and very glad that management is to.
Bottom line, management is acting within the letter and spirit of the law, they are wisely diversifying and merely using the assets they’ve been given for their own benefit. It is beyond their control if the market sees it as a red flag.
Disclosure – while I prudently advise my clients to diversify, I’ve found IDCC to be a unique opportunity to grow my wealth and have had 100% of my stock investments in my regular account and IRA (thank you Mr. Roth!!) for a couple of years. I even go to 120% when big news hits using margin for a day or two to grab a couple of points. My only thought on personally diversifying is trading a portion in and out and whether or not to buy some options.
Insider selling indicates to me
For NO on 2 folks only
Guys, PLEASE STOP. The vote is over. Let Jerry, Brad, Ken, Ed, Joel and anyone else on the yes side have the last word. Because they are RIGHT. We do not understand how much the inability to use the additional 5 million options will affect IDCC's future. It is useless to argue about this subjective judgment. We do not know what long term affects the PR will have on the stock. No one can. If you are planning any activism, don't talk about it or defend your right to do it here. You are free to do it and no one can stop you. Just be sure not to mention the board. Why argue about it when there is no benefit that can come from it?
So please, the vote is over, and the institutions got their way. Our votes could not have changed it no matter what. Let the yes folks vent in peace. They feel just as passionately about their investment as we do, and they are understandably upset after seeing something happen that they believe will hurt the long term value of our stock. It is easy to push the buttons of someone who is mad - be above that. Even if they seem to lash out, let it go. Like Lincoln after the civil war, let's strive to be magnanimous to the other side. We can rebuild this board into a great source of information and a short cut to important DD.
Before posting again, ask yourself what will it accomplish other than making yourself feel better by telling that #%@#!% off. If you can't come up with a good answer, please don't post. If you feel someone misunderstood you or your point, send a PM or an e-mail.
To everyone [ I know you're reading this, you naughty yes people ;-D ], please follow Jim's request to use the coffee shop for the off topic. It really isn't that tough to use two boards and we can have a lot of fun and camaraderie over there while keeping this board focused on the important information about our common investment.
Thanks,
The poster formerly known as fmilt
GoDuke, I second that thought
Although I think the quote is from Carnac the Magnificent.
"May the fleas of a thousand Afghan camels infest the
crotch of the person who screws up your day
and may their arms be too short to scratch... "