I am updating my staus.
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cheers eom
All quarterly reports, for all stocks I am aware of, are due within 1 1/2 months after the quarter finished - so the quarter finished 30th Sept so were expecting by around 15th of November + / - a few days.
rich
Anyone remember what the target of advertising as a percentage of revenue BSPM were aiming for?
rich
BSPM - ah well, at least I know the reasons why they aren't popular.
I listened to the CC at the time and I have to say that I was a bit confused about what % they were going to fix the (advertising / revenue) at? Does anyone know?
Q1 was 25% and Q2 was 23% as % of revenue. I guess they have to get their revenue growth so I should give them some lee-way on the advertising.
IR is talking to management tonight. I will mail the question to them anyway. Won't hurt to remind them - if they can't hit the numbers they need to do some 'xplaining.
I could also ask them to if they would re-iterate their guidance. Can't hurt either.
Any BSPM questions to: thaberfield@hcinternational.net
rich
BSPM - don't worry Fernando BSPM hasn't moved. It's very important that NAZ stocks like BSPM doing 70 cents this year (avg of management guidance giving 60% growth in EPS) produce operating cash flow in Q1 & Q2 remains at $2.80 (P/E 4) and has missed the run last week. 60% growth P/E 4, yup, don't buy this!*
CFO is also disclosing SAIC docs in next quarter [1]. 20 cents in Q2 good grief, anyway, so far no rally!
rich
* yet
[1] http://www.smallcapnetwork.com/What-do-ONP-CHBT-DYP-DGW-CGA-and-UTA-Have-in-Common/s/article/view/p/mid/1/id/868/
UK Gov doc on China Airport growth over next decade
http://www.ukti.gov.uk/download/116196_103301/Airport%20Sector%20in%20China.html
rich
Does that show all institutional ownership? We know Mr Bradford owns a couple of shares of LPH but doesn't show up on the report? Or perhaps only certain institutions have to report?
Anyway, nice to see.
rich
Think Cramer used the N word about CCME. Niche stuff doesn't get a good a valuation but still I'm hoping if they make an acquisition it may give them an avenue out of the Niche - I'll have to be patient I guess.
Typical! CCME Still rated behind BIDU eom
rich
IBD - the rumour was for the IBD World Stocks list and not the IBD 100. That sounds nice but my guess is that IBD 100 is the big time.
rich
CCME - PRs still have the old form! The contractual arrangements is at the bottom of every PR! Even the yahoo data is a year old they have 24,400 buses and more regions.
CME, through contractual arrangements with Fujian Fenzhong, an entity majority owned by CME’s former majority shareholder, operates the largest television advertising network on inter-city and airport express buses in China. While CME has no direct equity ownership in Fujian Fenzhong, through the contractual agreements CME receives the economic benefits of Fujian Fenzhong’s operations. Fujian Fenzhong generates revenue by selling advertisements on its network of television displays installed on over 24,400 express buses originating in eighteen of China’s most prosperous regions, including the four municipalities of Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin and Chongqing and fourteen economically prosperous regions, namely Guangdong, Jiangsu, Jiangxi, Fujian, Sichuan, Hebei, Anhui, Hubei, Shandong, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Zhejiang, Hunan and Henan.
It's just a matter of swapping the text and updating the numbers - think they pay the IR firm to sit on their bottoms rather than, what they need, which is a swift kick to their rear.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Starr-International-Company-bw-297851410.html?x=0&.v=1
rich
Genius eom
When he can find something better! eom
rich
CGPI - I also think he said nothing beneath $7.
rich
CGPI - the main worry seems to be the commitment to the two projects.
In my CC notes I have it that there is no capital spending on getting the lake complex. Do other people agree with that?
The basic business is going like gangbusters.
rich
CCME - Lookout NYC! eom
I want them to spend that cash on more drills Anyway, a bright future (if only they would tell us what that future was!)
Back in the Nawar days he was saying they had plenty of offers it was a matter of choosing the right one. Certainly the drilling company buy showed that.
If the cash starts to pile up again then I would hope for dividend as well but it's in a situation where there are many small companies all around it which aren't as well capitalized - buying up these could be an effective usage of cash - but I don't know for sure and I'll leave that to the judgment of management.
NEP does look like it might get a reasonable valuation which a lot of Chinese stocks don't seem to manage. So, I don't think a dividend is such a high priority for valuation. I think it's something they can reach to when expansion ideas are limited.
rich
NEP - it's diminishing returns with drilling their own property due to the lease change in 2012. I want the cash saved up and used on a new lease - which is what I think they are doing.
Then we'll get to double figures in one, high weeee, trading session.
rich
I was wondering about that but didn't know enough about ad agencies. Conceivably, I thought, they could be paid in advance by their clients which could make them cash rich and happy to pay out quickly - but as I said it's an area which I am ignorant on.
Certainly, the A/R isn't an outlier for Chinese small caps and many have even better numbers.
rich
DSO - yup I got 35 as well for Q2 and 38 for Q1. They are saying their terms are 30 to 60 days. These things are largely industry driven and I don't know how they compare with other companies.
In China it seems state owned enterprises and other monopolies are very poor with their payments. However, clearly, CCME is working with advertising agencies and directly with large firms wanting to create a brand.
They are far from unheard of. A number of Chinese firms I follow have been improving cash cycles - they have little choice given prohibitive costs use of equity vs their expansion rates.
Four Chinese companies with better DSO's I have - not checked them all by a long chalk.
CELM last quarter 35 days - they've always been impressive
LPH has improved from 42 days a year ago to 20 days last quarter.
CCGY has 23 days in the last quarter and 22 in previous quarter.
CPQQ had 38 in Q1 and 26 in Q2.
Even if you look at companies like YONG Q2 last year was 72 and Q2 this year was 55.
I'm expecting the good companies will keep working at this as cash is the main restriction to growth.
I also just did a quick review of the company's most recent quarterly financials (vs. prior quarters) and the numbers are too good to be true..... Can someone name one company, let alone many, that have a 70%+ EBITDA margin, growing revenue at 150%+... with flat capex and working capital.... ??
I know! God knows I've looked long enough to find a company that good. Anyway, as you know, the company started advertising on a relatively few, in the 100's, airport buses vs the 10s thousands of intercity buses - the difference is that the passengers on airport buses are worth much more to advertisers - so these few buses have a massive positive influence to the top and bottom lines.
Across all the buses embedded advertising is now a major revenue stream. Nothing changes except the content being advertised and they make big Yuan. Embedded ads are bringing in as much revenue as the regular adds now. These only began at the end of 2009.
Both of these factors would give you the characteristics that you picked up on and that the stock market will reward handsomely.
rich
LPH vs BSPM - OK cheers, a technical call then with people selling their LPH profits?
I took you to mean a fundamental risk in the business.
rich
Ditto BSPM & LPH - LPH riskier than BSPM? What risks do you think LPH have? I thought it was a pretty basic revenue model protected by government decided margins.
rich
CCGY - Q1 was adversely affected by the non-cash charges, imaginary for all rational purposes, remove them and they made 3 cents Q1. The rest of the quarters have benefited from the new plants running capacity up.
I was expecting 20 cents of adjusted net income for the year. I think that would be fine. Especially if they can keep the cash flow.
rich
CCME IBD 100 - the IBD ratings at the start of the year were poor - this was because the quarterly results weren't showing and the "n/a's" were killing the ratings. I no longer have the IBD but would suspect they should all be in.
Seeing CCME mentioned in IBD articles is another good sign.
This was the response I had about it from IBD at the time.
The data used to calculate the ratings is from the companies quarterly reports. If no data is available, n/a is shown. Should you require any additional assistance please....
Anyway, BORN IPO'd this year and made it into the figures. So, if IBD is giving CCME a high score (anyone?) then I would say there are no obvious reason why they shouldn't be in.
rich
Weeeeeeeeee (I have less wee as I have ordinaries)
rich
CGPI - there numbers were great. Summer is their quite time - people can't be bothered to come out during the heat. They almost matched their June quarter (cf last year Sept Q was 20% off June Q).
Using management guidance I was expecting 430 ish graves while they were doing 575 on average. They are also beating their target ASP as they are 8% above their high end guidance.
Given that they did well the guidance has gone from conservative to stupidly conservative. Last year Dec rev was almost 37% higher than June quarter and March was 20% higher. To match their guidance of $40M both quarters would be significantly lower (say Q3 9M, Q4 8M) which doesn't make sense.
If we use the pattern of last year and take a bit off so Q3 = Q1 * 1.3 and Q4 = Q1 * 1.15. Then we have $53M in Revenues and assuming all things being even somewhere approaching $25M net income or using 13.4FD (last Q had 12.7M) $1.90 earnings. I think there's a million or so of "warrant" earnings in there from Q1 but still looking cheap as chips.
Anyway, pumping aside, $1.45 is in the bag and it's more about how much they beat it.
rich
YONG - understood. eom
SSE - my money goes to the gym and, on occasion, catnaps.
rich
SSE Closes for lunch each day.
Trading Hours
SSE is open for trading from Monday to Friday. In the morning session, the market opens with a call auction between 9.15 am and 9.25 am, which is followed by a continuous auction between 9.30 am and 11.30 am. The afternoon session begins with a continuous auction between 1.00 pm to 3.00 pm and then block trading takes place between 3.00 pm – 3.30 pm. The market is closed on weekends and public holidays.
If I had it my way the stock market would be open an hour a day. More time to do other things
rich
http://chinastockventure.com/category/china-stock-exchanges/page/2/
YONG - I'm ignorant, what's the difference? The "Interviewer" puts up soft and in advance questions?
rich
YONG CNBC interview
Can't hurt.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1614887261&play=1
rich
YONG CNBC interview
Can't hurt.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1614887261&play=1
rich
CNAM - The hack-job seems to concentrate on CNAM CEO getting the wrong numbers and not filling in the filings - fair enough he should take whatever punishment that entails. I don't believe that affected the loan as the CEO's holding information is clearly available through SEC and, as they say, those simple maths would have been part of Crisnic's basic due diligence.
However, they don't deny the fact that he gave them 1.3M shares to Crisnic as a stock loan. Why on earth would you give them 1.3M shares and not expect this to be a stock loan?
They even give the transfer date the 29th June. If you look at volumes that month it's in the 300 K range on the 29th June it was over 2M [1]. It's pretty obvious that they dumped all the shares the moment they got them. This is not the action of someone even attempting to offer a loan.
Why do this? The speculation is that these stock loan agreements comes with a minimum pps clause and if it goes lower than that Crisnic fund would have been allowed to sell it legally.
So, Chinese person requiring translation filling in form in English making a mistake fraud vs someone selling $5M worth of shares which were meant to be collateral of a loan fraud.
It should also be noted that this information has been battered about in the public domain for quite a while now and this is just a re-hash.
rich
[1] http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=CNAM&d=9&e=14&f=2010&g=d&a=11&b=29&c=2009&z=66&y=66
LPH Redchip update
http://www.redchip.com/files/redchipReports/LPH_20101012_4QFY10Update.pdf?from=Ping
rich
0.5% inc in reserves for 2 months before it goes back again - looks like a fine tuning device. I don't doubt traders will make the most of it but seems fairly benign as it stands.
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2010-10/12/content_11398150.htm
rich
Yup, someone wanted it closing on the HOD.
rich
LPH HOD $3.00 - finishing with some flair. eom
No, only a unknown yahoo poster who has flagged up his picks in the past. Might be worth following his tweets - If the stock has done well he might tweet his choice as he did with MIPS.
http://twitter.com/navellier
Though, given the volume someone influential did
rich
CEO/ Gas - going point - think Chesapeake do a lot of horizontal drilling - a fairly new technique - amongst other things.
rich
LPH - passed Fridays volume, 350K, in 10 minutes +12%
Louis Navellier is officially my stock picker of the day
rich