China Growth Stocks

[GorillaGorilla]

CGPI - there numbers were great. Summer is their quite time - people can't be bothered to come out during the heat. They almost matched their June quarter (cf last year Sept Q was 20% off June Q).

Using management guidance I was expecting 430 ish graves while they were doing 575 on average. They are also beating their target ASP as they are 8% above their high end guidance.

Given that they did well the guidance has gone from conservative to stupidly conservative. Last year Dec rev was almost 37% higher than June quarter and March was 20% higher. To match their guidance of $40M both quarters would be significantly lower (say Q3 9M, Q4 8M) which doesn't make sense.

If we use the pattern of last year and take a bit off so Q3 = Q1 * 1.3 and Q4 = Q1 * 1.15. Then we have $53M in Revenues and assuming all things being even somewhere approaching $25M net income or using 13.4FD (last Q had 12.7M) $1.90 earnings. I think there's a million or so of "warrant" earnings in there from Q1 but still looking cheap as chips.

Anyway, pumping aside, $1.45 is in the bag and it's more about how much they beat it.

rich