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10:15 ET FDRY and QLGC added to AmTech's Focus List : AmTech adds Foundry Networks and QLogic to its focus list. As for Foundry: (1) Checks with industry and sources indicate that business at Foundry remains strong vs its usual conservative guidance and, contrary to the consensus view, the US government business (32% of revenue) remains strong; (2) Foundry plays in the sweet spot of many industry trends including network convergence (voice, video, data), power over ethernet, and Layer 3/Gig E/10 Gig E upgrade cycle, and (3) its valuation is attractive trading at 27x CY05 with potential upside to $32; Note, stock also upgraded at JMP (see 7:14 InPlay)..... As for QLogic, it's the most diversified SAN player with the lowest cost and highest margin. Other reasons: (1) The biggest fundamental negative, which is uncertainty with the HGST ramp, is no longer valid; (2) Competitive pressures with AMCC and others is overblown; and (3) its valuation is compelling trading at 24x CY05 earnings, near its trough with potential for 50% upside to $65.
Is that a guy thing, talking about "the big one"? Fed Res. says; OH MAN! THIS COULD BE THE BIG ONE! His big one?
RMBS up over 4% in after hours. Another pop tomorrow? I want 35$!
bummer! who's upgrade would mean anything??
hey op, lots of upgrades for QLGC today. mean anything to ya??
sorry if this is a repeat:
Posted by: there
In reply to: Zeev Hed who wrote msg# 207473 Date:2/20/2004 9:04:54 AM
Post #of 207495
ZEEV be careful with bu$$ today.......7:18AM RMBS: Rambus concerns highlighted in WSJ 34.07: The Wall Street Journal's "Ahead of the Tape" column highlights Rambus, as its shares have seen a 18% downfall and 35% popup in the last two days. According to the article, this was caused by an unfavorable patent ruling in Europe and a favorable ruling in its dispute with the Federal Trade Commission. However, as Tuesday was a quiet day for the stock, it was also a potentially eventful one for the company. Intel gave a paper at an advanced-circuit conference that day about a technology that could potentially do an end-run around Rambus's intellectual property for memory chips called DRAM. Intel has taken the technology to two major DRAM makers, Infineon and Samsung. "Whether or not [Rambus] achieved this toll booth lawfully or unlawfully, it's in the interest of semiconductor companies to 'architect' around this," says Precursor Group's David Lytel. The Intel technology wouldn't require big investment in new equipment. Intel could potentially launch something like this fairly quickly, in, say, a year, he guesses. According to the article, the real point here is not that this particular technology is the certain "death knell" for Rambus. Investors have now priced into Rambus's stock the certainty of an enduring future revenue stream that could easily go away more quickly than they realize.
Zeev, any thoughts on SKX today?
You think RMBS is done for the day? I was hoping for another trip to 37.
News out: The judge's ruling is an initial decision that doesn't bind the FTC if it hears an appeal.
Sounds like it may not be over yet......hmmmmm....
I'm sure you're right Zeev, but my spirits can't be dampened. Just for tomorrow, exhuberance will be my middle name!
Boy-howdy!!
A little clearer:
Check out the line-up of bids ; )
======================
COMBINED REAL-TIME ORDER BOOK Bid Orders Price Order Size Institution
500.00 1 Archipelago
40.20 2000 Archipelago
40.00 4000 Archipelago
35.15 300 Archipelago
35.00 2050 Archipelago
34.68 3400 Archipelago
34.50 100 Archipelago
32.00 7535 Archipelago
31.55 1000 Archipelago
30.00 12427 Archipelago
Ask Orders Price Order Size Institution
26.95 300 Archipelago
28.40 200 Archipelago
28.42 200 Archipelago
28.48 1700 Archipelago
28.50 300 Archipelago
28.75 750 INET
28.89 800 INET
28.96 120 INET
29.00 50 INET 29.38 300 INET
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ecn?s=RMBS
Check out the line-up of bids ; )
======================
COMBINED REAL-TIME ORDER BOOK Bid Orders Price Order Size Institution 500.00 1 Archipelago 40.20 2000 Archipelago 40.00 4000 Archipelago 35.15 300 Archipelago 35.00 2050 Archipelago 34.68 3400 Archipelago 34.50 100 Archipelago 32.00 7535 Archipelago 31.55 1000 Archipelago 30.00 12427 Archipelago Ask Orders Price Order Size Institution 26.95 300 Archipelago 28.40 200 Archipelago 28.42 200 Archipelago 28.48 1700 Archipelago 28.50 300 Archipelago 28.75 750 INET 28.89 800 INET 28.96 120 INET 29.00 50 INET 29.38 300 INET
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ecn?s=RMBS
I think we should buy at the open - sort of like a toast of champagne....
Yee-Haw, Boy Howdy!!
Are they pushing it up to short it or is the premarket a good sign? Heck if I know! The suspense....
Intel faces tough 2004 DDR-2 challenge
And Rambus chases Intel XDR endorsement
By INQUIRER staff: Tuesday 17 February 2004, 00:00
SENIOR MEMORY analyst Nam Hyung Kim at iSuppli said in a weekly report that in his view it’s unlikely Intel will succeed in shifting the market to DDR-2 during 2004.
According to Kim, the major Dramurai have a good set of plans in place, and he describes Intel’s own attempts to promote DDR-2 as an admirable job.
But there are some elements of the DDR-2 memory platform that still have to be put in place.
He said that Intel’s validation site doesn’t yet show any system level DIMM module validation yet, while its own DDR-2 chipsets don’t come out until the second quarter. And usually it’s a year or so after a release of this type of nature before there’s widespread take up.
Changes have to be made at the motherboard design level and that means those manufacturers have to move to support DDR-2, with a subsequent cost to them. Kim said that they may be hesitant to jump after previous problems.
Further, Rambus is set to offer much higher memory bandwidth with its XDR memory type it will launch this week. And Rambus wants Intel to endorse it as the mainstream memory of the future.
That, we agree with Kim, may be a bitter pill for partners to swallow after the shenanigans of previous years.
XDR, he said, has the capability to thrash any future version of DDR technology in performance terms.
http://www.theinquirer.net/?article=14176
<< Being an AWOL coward and lying to the American people while causing the needless deaths of almost 600 of Americans and scores of innocent women and children on lies, the story that should matter to every American.>>
There probably won't be a politician, female or male, without a story. Drugs, infidelity, words spoken, groping, botox, English language challenged, price of haircuts, money spent on dishes, who slept where and when in the White House. I'm not sure anyone cares. Jobs. It's all about jobs. If you're people are compensated properly or you can convince them that they will be, you win. It's all about the money, stupid! (the generic stupid, of course)
I believe he moved, but the market public seems to view resignations as something wrong with the company.
no....jeez, wouldn't that be something!
and I see QLGC now down .73 - and now down .54
VP resigned. Moved to Northern California is the reason given....but who'll believe that?
FTC website just updated for Feb 13 announcements. No word on Rambus case. Docket 9302 not updated either.
I think the people on the floor must have gone out for a beer or something.
ya, oil. forgot about that slick stuff.
Zeev, has the paint dried yet?
Anyone expecting a bump in QLGC w/recent upgrades?
RMBS - a goner? Or a bounce back? Yikes!! What a day.
thanks...
BRCD...is the CC over? I'm at work and no way to check....thanks.
It’s more likely the Qs will slide back into the middle of their range between 37.00 and 37.40 ahead of Greenspan’s comments, and then at 11 Eastern tomorrow, when the prepared text is released, the market will lurch one way or another in reaction to those comments. Which way is the lurch?? Wish I knew.
Any thoughts on QLGC today? Looks like a buy.
Zeev, at what point might you dip into QLGC again??
OJ said to sell amzn before earnings.
http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/ContentServer?pagename=thestar/Layout/Article_Type1&c=Article&a...
Bear:
What investors need to know about Nortel now
TYLER HAMILTON
The feeding frenzy has begun.
The question is whether people should remember the Nortel hangover they experienced three years ago and act with appropriate caution.
Don't get me wrong, it's uplifting that the country's crown jewel of technology has gotten its shine back. On Friday, Brampton-based Nortel recaptured its rightful spot as the largest company in Canada by market value, overtaking Royal Bank with a new market cap of $43 billion.
A symbolic milestone, maybe, but no less significant. Nortel is the heaviest firm on the Toronto Stock Exchange again, meaning it can throw that weight around a little more.
It's been a long and precarious road for Nortel. Massive job cuts since 2001 have collectively wiped out two-thirds of the company's workforce. Product lines were abandoned. The size of contracts shrunk, as did the number of deals. Employee morale for much of this stretch was in the gutter. Many investors still hold bitter memories.
Remember when some analysts were using the words "bankruptcy" and "Nortel" in the same breath? That was only 15 months ago, when the company's stock — once trading at a high of $124.50 — fell below that embarrassing $1 threshold.
No doubt, thousands of you still feeling burned by The Great Fall had so little confidence in Nortel that, even at $1, the company wasn't worth your attention. You thought about it at $2. You know you did. But now you're kicking yourself for not taking the plunge.
Let's see, say you invested $10,000 in Nortel when it was $80 and held on tight, only to see 98 per cent of it vaporize before your eyes. Had you invested another $10,000 when it was $1, you'd been sitting on $100,000 — enough to cover the original investment and have a sizeable down payment on a house.
It's cruel — pure psychological torture. Now you're asking, should I get in now? Will it double to $20? Will it take off like Research In Motion Ltd., which was a $16 stock less than a year ago and is now pushing $120?
Duncan Stewart, who manages a technology portfolio at Tera Capital Corp. and owns Nortel shares, puts it this way: "Probably the biggest risk continues to be not that someone owns too much of it but that they don't own any of it."
In Stewart's view, 2004 is a recovery year and Nortel is in a remarkably good position to take advantage of it. He thinks the stock is fairly valued at between $10 and $12 but "that doesn't mean it won't stop going up." Some predict it could easily go to $20 this year if the positive energy sticks around.
"They have Cisco-fied themselves," he says. "This is a company that's very good at what they do."
Others apparently agree. "Today, Nortel is the best-positioned diversified equipment company in the world among the majors," said Blaylock & Partners analyst Grabriel Lowy.
Steve Kamman, an analyst with CIBC World Markets, also believes that Nortel stands ahead of the pack, particularly when measured against long-time rival Lucent Technologies Inc.
The job cuts were painful, but Nortel is running more efficiently today because of that pain. Research and development remains strong. The balance sheet is in good shape. The company has a strong product pipeline. Plans to outsource the rest of its manufacturing to Flextronics could lower costs even further.
Nortel is also proving itself a leader in two of the hottest markets in telecommunications: Wireless and Voice over Internet protocol.
A number of major contract wins over the past few months — including two major wireless-equipment deals in Europe and China, and a whopping deal to supply U.S. telephone giant Verizon with VoIP gear — has given Nortel high-profile momentum.
To top it all off, you can't underestimate the enthusiasm that results from a rocketing stock. Investors are reinvigorated and analysts are excited again. Most important, employee morale is rising hand-in-hand with Nortel's share price.
Can any other telecommunications equipment provider claim such an alignment of the stars? Certainly Lucent can't — not today, anyway.
"We continue to see Nortel substantially advanced versus its rival and comparable Lucent and expect investors will likely sharpen this distinction in their relative valuation of the two companies as 2004 plays out," wrote Kamman in a research note last Friday.
In this sense, investors may be willing to pay a premium on Nortel not only for what it has accomplished, but also for what its rivals haven't. Like votes for the upcoming NBA AllStar game, Nortel is the industry's Vince Carter. More than being one of the best players, Nortel is a name with fan appeal — the value of the name exceeds the value of the company.
"I think Nortel is going to do much better this year than a lot of other names," says Kamman, who doesn't own Nortel shares. Because there are so few stars, "the same amount of money is chasing a smaller number of stocks."
It's anyone's guess whether this is a temporary love-in or a longer-term affair.
Chief executive Frank Dunn, and even predecessor John Roth, used to say that Nortel would emerge from the industry downturn as a well-oiled machine ready to pounce on emerging opportunities. Both men were right. But credit must go fully to Dunn, the surprise successor to Roth.
Roth started the easy cuts, but Dunn took over when the truly difficult surgery was required. His challenge was to cut deep, but not into the bone, and not so much that the company was beyond repair.
Observers, including myself, envisioned Roth's successor as a well-known visionary with a reputation for turnarounds. Dunn, the Oakville bean counter, former chief financial officer of Nortel, had no such reputation. Few knew whether he was up to the challenge, but Dunn proved that a heads-down, sleeves-rolled-up approach — and a little time for healing — is just what Nortel needed.
But should you invest now, having missed out on the run-up to $10?
Here are a few things to consider:
Nortel did report a healthy fourth-quarter profit of nearly $500 million (U.S.) and revenue of $2.8 billion, up 25 per cent compared to the previous quarter. But Dunn didn't provide any guidance for 2004, other than to say the company's revenues would grow faster than the market, which has an expected growth rate of 1 to 5 per cent. This means Nortel has to work a little harder by taking market share from rivals. Today's valuation already assumes it will meet those expectations.
Remember, Nortel can't really do much more to cut costs. Other than outsourcing the final remnants of its manufacturing, any major increases in profit will require big jumps in revenue. Dunn no longer has the luxury, if you can call it that, of finding profits by trimming the fat.
Don't forget that herd investing goes both ways. One tremor in the market, one shaky quarter, could quickly erase any enthusiasm that has accumulated over the past months. Fund managers, pressured to keep up with the S&P/TSE composite index, will continue to buy Nortel just in case the stock goes any higher. Who knows what will happen if a pin falls.
This same thinking extends outside of Nortel. The feeding frenzy around Nortel could expand to the rest of the sector as investors look for the next rising star. This could be a mistake, because a sector-wide buying frenzy can easily turn into a sector-wide selling frenzy with the slightest of market turbulence, dragging Nortel down with the rest. "I do worry that people will bid up the sector indiscriminately," says Kamman.
Finally, keep an eye on Nortel's price-earnings multiple. As of Friday's share price, the company was trading at roughly 40 times analysts' profit estimates for 2004 and 25 times 2005 consensus.
This isn't dangerous territory. Tech stocks — broadly encompassing telecom — are currently trading at an average of 30 to 35 times next year's earnings. But be careful if the P/E multiple creeps up to 80, otherwise you could be setting yourself up for another Nortel hangover.
Simply put, Nortel, because it's coming out of a downturn and is benefiting from being a fan favourite, is a speculative investment — an egg that should never fill one basket.
Dunn has whipped the company into terrific shape, and he deserves at pat on the back for doing the job, but the head needs to stay down and the sleeves rolled up.
There's a lot of work to be done, and as the company learned three years ago, it's dangerous for a stock to rise on press releases and hype alone.
Before stepping down, John Roth had a few words of wisdom that, despite his ruined credibility, bears repeating to anybody who dreams of seeing Nortel shares break $100 again.
"Those days are over," said Roth, at the peak of the telecom apocalypse.
The encouraging news is that Nortel is making fewer promises and delivering more than expected. This contrasts with the days of talking big, spending even bigger, and hiding the real story behind some very creative accounting that, admittedly, was par for the course four years ago. That culture has changed, hopefully forever.
That all said, invest with caution. If you're expecting to double your money in two weeks, then perhaps you should resist. If you're looking for a long-term investment that might reward you with some short-term surprises, Nortel may be a place to park for a while.
ot: I just don't get the half-time. What happened at the end there with Mr. Timberlake and Ms. Jackson? What was THAT!
Wall St., Housing Sector Get Warning Shot
Sat January 31, 2004 08:36 AM ET
By Dick Satran
NEW YORK (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve's warning shot was fired with such a muffled tone there might have been a silencer on the weapon -- but Wall Street got the message just the same.
The Fed said it "can be patient" about raising interest rates but decided it could no longer say it would hold rates down "for a considerable period."
In other words, somewhere, sometime, interest rates will rise, the Fed was saying. And don't say we didn't warn you.
Equity strategists were divided about whether this meant a complete reversal for the stock market or just a slight shift in market psychology.
But investors lost no time shifting gears after Wednesday's Fed meeting and they are likely to keep adjusting positions, strategists said. The most interest-rate driven stocks, like housing companies, were getting dumped, while the heavy industry sector held up.
"What the Fed did was completely change the dynamic for the outlook on stocks," said Peter Boockvar, equity strategist for Miller Tabak & Co. "There was this fantasy-land mentality that rates could stay low forever."
FED SIGNALS INVESTORS
The U.S. central bank set the market straight that low-cost money for borrowing by consumers and corporations wouldn't last forever.
"The Fed was letting investors know that the accommodative policy isn't set in stone, and equity investors shouldn't base all their investment decisions on constant liquidity being provided by the Fed," said Jack Caffrey, equity strategist at JP Morgan Private Bank.
Housing was one sector that took the bullet. The Dow Jones housing index (.DJUSHM: Quote, Profile, Research) dropped 4 percent in the second half of the week, and the financial index (.DJUSFN: Quote, Profile, Research) lost 2 percent.
By comparison the broadly based Standard & Poor's materials index, with stocks ranging from DuPont to U.S. Steel, barely moved, shedding less than a quarter of a percentage point.
Caffrey figures that recent improvements in the industrial and material sectors of the economy were behind the Fed's warning. So those are the sectors that investors should start to think about.
Housing was one of the biggest gainers last year as rates hovered at lows not seen for more than 40 years. Real estate, in particular, has boomed. The Dow Jones housing average has climbed nearly 70 percent during the market's upturn. Moreover, rising home values have had a "wealth effect," buoying consumer sentiment and lifting retail sales of housing-related items.
WHITHER HOUSING SECTOR
But does that mean that the housing sector is about to come undone, bringing all of the related sectors down as well? Not necessarily, says Richard Yamarone, director of economic research for Argus Research.
"The housing boom is not really all about low interest rates," said Yamarone. "There are strong demographic trends, with more people entering the home buying age and with an influx of immigrants coming in and realizing the American dream much faster than before."
The leading home builders are saying that demand will hold up as long as mortgage rates stay under 7.5 percent, Yamarone said. Right now, they are 5.5 percent to 6 percent.
But Miller Tabak's Boockvar is skeptical that housing demand will remain as it has over the past year. Even a slight rise in interest rates will take the edge off demand, he said, and that is reason enough to turn bearish on pricey housing stocks.
Indeed, the Fed's lean toward tightening will encourage continued profit-taking in a broad range of stock sectors, Boockvar said, and "in a higher-rates environment this year I don't expect stocks to move any higher."
Still, the economy should continue to expand as momentum builds in sectors outside of housing, especially consumer spending and capital investment, Boockvar said. In an early sign that consumers are getting more optimistic, the University of Michigan Friday reported that its consumer confidence index rose to 103.8 in January from 92.6 in December.
"The consumer remains engaged in the economy," said J.P. Morgan's Caffrey. "But going forward it's going to be less a question of interest rates having an impact and more about job growth and creation."
Consumers "haven't tossed in the towel through a recession, the Sept. 11 attacks and the stock market bubble burst, so I can't see that happening now if interest rates tick up a half-point or a point."
Yamarone thinks that investors have overreacted to the Fed statement, which could have been timed to avoid charges of playing politics closer to election. That could mean it might be many months before the Fed takes any action. "The markets really have it wrong here. I don't think the Fed is going to raise interest rates. I don't see any cause for concern."
For the week, the Dow fell 0.8 percent to 10,488, the S&P 500 slipped 0.9 percent to 1,131 and the Nasdaq dropped 2.7 percent to 2,066.
http://reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtm...storyID=4254726
Got up early for NT.
Guess I'm just curious if you guys think RMBS will benefit by recent upgrades or are they the kiss of death?! Or maybe the legal stuff is what's stopped it in it's tracks. Is the stock suffering from tech depression or are you all expecting it to rise where no bu$$ has gone before? Of course, it's just opinion you'll be providing. thx
Zeev, at what price would you pick up QLGC again for a hold (into the next bubble - ggg!)? Are you waiting for under $40?