Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Yes, expect a strong defense of 1597 but I think it cracks sooner or later and when it does, look out.
And there goes 1600.
1597 break here we come.
As an East Coast Boy growing up and a Bay Area NoCal transplant about 15 years ago, one thing I don't miss is the mosquitos and humidity.
No mosquitos out here and probably close to the best all round weather anywhere.
What are you having for lunch? Boy, I would love to be a fly on the wall witnessing all the holding forth that must be going on there! Bet it would be tough to get a word in edgewise.
Just kidding Jerry, couldn't resist.
Enjoy your company and thanks for the continued tips. You have played this whole thing pretty darn well.
Adrian Van Eck - Money Forecast Letter
Does anyone know about this guys track record - positive or negative?
Thanks.
OT and after market close:
Bearmove, believe you mentioned once you are from San Diego. I'm thinking of taking my family down there for a vacation in July. Would like to show my 3 1/2 year old girl the San Diego Zoo and maybe the Wild Animal Park.
Also looking for a nice place to stay while we're down there. Any recommendations or personal favorites?
Thanks.
Let's see what happens. They may get "saved by the bell" today as we are 40 minutes away from the close but if not today, tomorrow or friday look ripe for the break.
Yup, I think we break 1597 today or tomorrow.
Fed cut was a no win situation and 25 with continued bias to ease does not say this economy is improving. Looks like lucky 13 will have the same effect as the rest. Japan all over again.
Thanks, so I guess the bias is to continue to ease and there's no official position from the fed. The comments are just interpreted by others to indicate a continued bias.
Anyone disagree? If not, it's official
So augieboo, is this officially a bias to continue easing?
By the way, I read all that before my previous post but my question is:
"Is there an official BIAS from the fed with official categories like EASE, NEUTRAL, INCREASE?"
Or is the term "bias to ease" something the CNBC folks just come up with based on the comments?
Federal Reserves may have to answer this one.
Thanks.
What is the current bias? Is it for further easing or neutral or what? Is there an official fed posting of the continued bias or is that something we all just interpret based on their comments?
TIA
Thanks Fed, it's that 5 I can't see on the previous site you linked.
Fed, I count 13 expiring tomorrow. Is it really 18?
CNF Inc warns of weaker than expected results
Tuesday June 24, 6:08 pm ET
Punkle Comment: This is a $5B Transportation Company announcing a very big miss. How can you be 47% off a forecast delivered in April in a predictable business like this? This tells me we could get quite a few more of these...Also, the transports lead the way.
NEW YORK, June 24 (Reuters) - CNF Inc. (NYSE:CNF - News), the cargo hauler that owns airfreight-carrier Emery Worldwide, on Tuesday warned that its second-quarter profit could be as much as 47 percent below its forecast in April, citing a weak economy.
CNF said it now expects to report second-quarter earnings of between 26 cents and 31 cents per share. That would be sharply below the company's April forecast that second-quarter operating income would come in between 42 cents and 49 cents per share. It would also trail Wall Street's consensus estimate of 41 cents a share, as compiled by tracking firm Thomson First Call (News - Websites).
"The weak economy continues to affect all of our businesses, particularly North American operations at Menlo Worldwide Forwarding," said Gregory Quesnel, CNF's chief executive, in a statement.
AT THESE PE LEVELS, THERE IS NOTHING MORE IMPORTANT THAN YEAR OVER YEAR AND SEQUENTIAL TOP LINE REVENUE COMPARISONS. THIS IS WHY EVERYONE PUSHES THE HECK OUT OF THEIR PRODUCT - TO MAKE THE TOP LINE REVENUE NUMBER.
AND THEN THEY USE THE BEAUTY OF PRO-FORMA ACCOUNTING AND MASSIVE EXPENSE CUTS TO MAKE THE EPS. EVERYWHERE I LOOK SERVICE IS IMPACTED BIG BUT THE FAT IS ALSO CUT OUT SO IT'S A DOUBLE EDGED SWORD. THE HOPE BY THE EXECUTIVES AT THESE COMPANIES IS THAT SOMEDAY SOON THE PRICE PRESSURE WILL SUBSIDE AND DEMAND WILL PICK UP AND THEN WE WILL HIRE PEOPLE BACK AND EASE THE ACCOUNTING GAMES OUT OF THE SYSTEM.
THE DEEPER YOU GET THE LESS ROOM YOU HAVE TO WORK WITH.
THE SAME THING IS HAPPENING WITH THE FED.
Maybe a retest of the morning's highs? Maybe a pre fed rally?
But I don't think it is the Santa Clara survey if that is what you are asking.
Either way I think it gets sold if we get a 25 or more cut. The higher the cut, the harder we fall.
Seems like another one of those survey's that just maps what the stock market does. Looks like zero predictive value.
Funny how many of these survey's just map the market vs. actual data like earnings, guidance, and economic.
Dollar hitting new HODs here day before the Fed. Let's see what happens here.
1597 - 1600 strong resistance. Look out below if we break 1597 with any kind of authority.
Classy post Bearmove. You are right far more often than you are wrong.
Any rate cut should be sold combined with $18B expiring, Thursday or Friday could be big down days.
The truth on SARS is definitely somewhere in the middle. It no doubt caused a slowdown in Asian portions of global companies but on the other hand it is always the headline as to why someone missed their quarter or reduced guidance and when you dig a little deeper you find out their domestic business is missing expectations as well (in many cases).
I'd like to see how much sales improvement in the U.S. also didn't materialize.
Or put in other words: "wishful thinking never turns a pipeline into sales"
Good move George, Japan getting walloped tonight!
Sliced right through 9,000 and down over 200 as I type.
Hong Kong joining the fray selling the WHO SARS news -158.
This is great news. Somewhat surprised Hong Kong isn't up on the official declaration but in light of the US performance today and the probability that this declaration was already priced in mostly, I guess it's not surprising.
Sounds great, any time.
Thanks Bearmove, you very well may be right with the past few days of down, I wouldn't be surprised at all. However, I also think we could be one big earnings preannouncement / announcement away from a big fall.
Do you ever give a longer term roadmap on the general market direction? Your short term calls on direction and specific stocks or sectors have been great and as you know many of us here appreciate the posts.
So Larry, if we go straight up from here and break new highs (which I don't believe we will), do you believe you called a top because we trended down for 2 days?
If you're going to make a call like that (which I think is great), why do you always back off completely whenever anyone tries to get any level of detail?
I'm not the only one who asked how long we trend down or how much we go down in your opinion and we all know by your trailer that your posts are your opinion.
As you appear to be a very detail oriented person based on the specifics I see in posts to others about defining their methods, I would assume you have some more details worth sharing regarding your own.
Larry, you mention today reinforced your idea(l) that a top is in. What is the minimum that needs to happen for you to be validated that this was a top.
Obviously a drop to let's say 1400, even if we go back up, I would say your methods effectively called a top. However, I am interested in what qualifies as a top from your perspective?
Thanks.
ASIA preannounced a crappy Q2 and dropped 25% last week harmvestor. They just announced a new contract after hours today so I would call them a special situation.
NTES, SOHU, and SINA are not participating in this AH rally.
I agree it may be too early for last rites but these overvalued stocks will fall hard when they do.
Foreign inets like NTES, SINA, SOHU, REDF broke down pretty hard today. Probably along with Russell. Maybe the crap is starting to wither.
From my post last night:
"For now, I think PSFT long may be the safest bet because of the Oracle determination to WIN this deal and probably continue to prop up the price and knock out a big competitor (even though I think the overall market is about to go down hard)."
--------------------------------------------------------------
PSFT UP today. Overall market down hard.
SEBL, ORCL, SAP down.
Rarely can I call stocks that fight the trend but it's nice every once in a while...
Close on the lows in play today according to AJTJ99:
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=1131957
Besides stocks being bloated in general, you also have the Fed meeting coming which seems like a lose / lose situation for the market whether it's 25 bp or 50 bp cut, both indicate more problems with the economy and we all know what happened after the last 11 rate cuts...
Traders may just want to book profits early before the Fed decision.
I'm not Fed Res. but it looks like an over week reverse repo which took $3.5B out of the treasury and will put it back next week.
Some comments on the PSFT / ORCL / JDEC and potential SAP and SEBL saga. The top 5 Enterprise Application Software (which is software that generally runs things such as Manufacturing, Financials, Human Resources, and Customer Relationship Management) companies based on quarterly Application Software License Revenue only are as follows:
1) SAP - $350M
2) ORCL - $250M
3) SEBL - $120M
4) PSFT - $90M
5) JDEC - $44M
The only company here that is different is ORCL because they sell databases as well as applications. All the rest only sell applications. This is why many always question whether or not ORCL's application license revenue is accurate. Are they lumping any database revenue in there or giving the database away for free in order to get the application license?
ITWO used to be up there but I believe they have faded very very fast in the past couple of years. By the way, that is the fate I predict for SEBL because they are another "one trick pony." They only have CRM whereas all the others have many different integrated product lines.
If ORCL buys PSFT it will not be a big conversion to the ORCL database because I believe about 80% of PSFT customers already run on the ORCL database. Same with SAP and SEBL - they all support the ORCL database and most of their customers are on it. However they all don't like supporting the ORCL database because ORCL is making such a heavy move into apps (understandable as the database business has become extremely competitive). In fact SAP just announce a partnership with an opensource database provider called MySQL but the jury is out as to whether it can provide the industrial strength necessary to power enterprise business applications requiring sub-second response times in many cases.
As far as other PSFT suitors, there could be MSFT, IBM, HP or some other behemoth technology company but it's not that simple as there are major integration challenges.
The 2 wildcards are SAP and SEBL. SAP is VERY ACTIVELY trying to capitalize on this uncertainty by proactively targeting PSFT customers with a special "kill PSFT" program that I am sure is complete with extra incentives for the SAP sales force. SAP has traditionally had a "not invented here" mentality like you mention in another post and has not done these type of enormous acquisitions in the past. The two cultures would be tough to integrate and the geographic differences of Germany and California would pose many problems. However, SAP has been the most consistent performer in the bunch and will most likely benefit from any of these outcomes as they appear to be the safest choice. SEBL is desperate to get sold as they know full well their days are numbered.
Once the frenzy dies down (which probably won't be for a long time) we still have the problem of a shrinking application software market so I still see all these companies having a very tough time growing their license revenues so it makes the stock picking piece of this equation more difficult.
For what it's worth, PSFT's products have always had a much higher reputation for quality than Oracle's which is one reason I wouldn't be surprised to see ORCL want some of that code.
For now, I think PSFT long may be the safest bet because of the Oracle determination to WIN this deal and probably continue to prop up the price and knock out a big competitor (even though I think the overall market is about to go down hard).
However, without the acquisition target, PSFT is probably a $10 stock on it's own merits.
That was the headquarters of Vantive, a company PSFT purchased some 4 years ago or so and you can bet that closing was planned a long time ago.
PSFT's main headquarters is in Pleasanton, CA in the East Bay of the Bay Area vs the South Bay (Santa Clara). Santa Clara is probably around 30 miles away from Pleasanton so those employees either had to move to the Pleasanton building or find another job.
I don't think this "building exit" has ANY relevance to anything in the current PSFT / ORCL saga...
Friday June 6th was also full of "good news" whereas today is full of "bad news."
Looks like the Fed does a reverse REPO and takes $2.25B out of the market today.
http://app.ny.frb.org/dmm/mkt.cfm