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Kthomp right on here Ultra Vires ruling
"Now, since several courts have found that the NWS is a valid act of a conservator, what wouldn't be? So you're close to the truth here. But since the Fifth Circuit en banc panel found the NWS to be ultra vires after all, it shows that 4617(f) isn't anywhere near the blanket judicial ban some think it is."
Chipped away at "can do anything".
No, any schmoke knows only can act a conservator. Can't murder, plunder, steal from the kitty... which is what they've done.
Placed in BK and acted as debtor-in-possession without a BK judge. MC in the Krimminger paper said this!
Coming down to the wire for Dec. 9th and a move pre-trial. 2 months!
Gaby "No, warrants stay"
But, but, Kthomp says they will recapitalize by buying $200B of stock at $2.00 a share and the warrants go away!?
Gaby - Have a sit-down with Kthomp and he will clue you in.
CBO so? Scenarios, but I see nothing about $ for government under any of them...
The only thing I see is retained capital until 2024.
Eeesh.
Talk about a piggy bank, by 2024 they will seld-capitalize.
Commons get all that money.
JPS sits around and waits for a payday?
4th SEC from SH - Really... why Mnooch care
I entirely doubt this as the cause.
Also, how is it known as "emergency" and not a planned meeting?
Lastly, some others posted that there is no "Board" of FHFA and I suppose this is true, but it then should have stated FHFA and BoD of GSE?
Very cloak and dagger and if like all things GSE, more non-news.
Scary because some folks here were outsmarting themselves and sellling, expecting to buy back cheaper.
All the way until Aug. 31st you (thought you) had.
Scary because Ackman, Pagliara, etc. aint selling so it is only the shorts who've been selling to each other.
Once the JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley boys start their whispers it will be very ugly indeed for shorts.
I CAN'T F-ing WAIT!
Scary low volume when shorts have so many to cover
FNMA 2.04/2.05 ~100k
FMCC 2.03/2.04 12k
5 minutes into trading and all of the JPS there is only 100 shares of FNMAS traded.
Ready for liftoff
existing commons and Treaury's warrants nigh worthless
Per KThomp
Really?!
Don't break that news to Ackman.
So, it's either
a) Zero
b) $4
c) $8 to $10
d) $50
e) $250
For a common share in the future.
This Board is so wack.
For the record, I'd say it is C - $8 to $10
Car analogy is great one and I think maybe Rosner or someone like that used it years ago in a testimony or a panel
"Like having a car's title that you can't drive"
Which compared to holding stock certificates in FNMA where the courts and others say... "what are you complaining about? You still own the stock. It trades. You are still the owners. (We just take all the profits forever, but you DO own the paper that says you own the company)"
Essentially, basically, administrative bankruptcy?!
Is that like kind of sort of possibly perhaps pregnant?
Sheesh.
Let's go with a timeline:
2008 Not bankrupt
2009 Not bankrupt
2010 Not bankrupt
2011 Not bankrupt
2012 Not bankrupt
2013 Not bankrupt
2014 Not bankrupt
2015 Not bankrupt
2016 Not bankrupt
2017 Not bankrupt
2018 Not bankrupt
2019 Not bankrupt
2020 Not bankrupt
KT - You trying to say that they are BK now? Or anywhere close to being?
Your logic has many flaws, but main one is circular reasoning based on opinion and false equation of essentially bankrupt with bankrupt
Calabria says essentially bankrupt because in conservatorship (you put in a truth nugget - yes, they are in conservatorship). Therefore (an opinion) Calabria clearly (an opinion) thinks FnF are essentially bankrupt. (Circle back to your original "essentially")
And, just like some 'sound bites', you fail to continue from "conservatorship is essentially an administrative bankruptcy" to the next portion where he says, and HIS JOB is to rehabilitate and release OR put them in bankruptcy, and he is definitely, and is on path, and hs stated many many times HE IS RELEASING THEM FROM CONSERVATORSHIP!
See timeline above...
Calabria said the words "conservatorship is essentially an administrative bankruptcy". FnF are clearly in conservatorship. Therefore Calabria clearly thinks FnF are essentially in an administrative bankruptcy. Law of syllogism.
PS What? If he did compare them to hertz, then it would only prove how naive he is, but I don't think he did...
"He even went on to compare FnF's situation to that of Hertz (which really is in bankruptcy) for goodness sake."
Kthomp - way off base on just first two statements...
"It's not me saying that FnF are essentially in bankruptcy, it's Calabria. I even provided proof. You might want to go off what he actually says rather than what you think he should say."
CALABRIA never said, could say, did say, will say "FnF aret essentially in bankruptcy" - in fact, just the opposite, he said they got screwed. He did say, as fact, that he would have liked to have seen bankruptcy in 2008, but I'd like to see Kate Upton naked, but that ain't happening and neither could have or did happen the 2008 BK.
Why? Because the govt. used FnF as tools for recovery, make boatloads of money and couldn't have b/c of the implied guarantee and fact that they need the MBS market.
Sheesh.
"If you want to disagree with Calabria go right ahead. But he is the one calling the shots. If he says this is going to be resolved like a bankruptcy then that's what's going to happen, period."
CALABRIA is NOT the one calling the shots. In a recent interview, he spelled that out. Treasury is the one calling the shots on raising the capital. And, the capital rule was his opinion (which we all have) on the number. He's getting beaten up on his number and Mnuchin and Moelis, etc. have other numbers.
Let's see the shots that Mnuchin moneymen call and not the govt. wonk Calabria.
Gasparino Fox Business uses "sources" saying Biden will keep GSE under lockdown
You believe him?
You believe ACG?
ACG says financial advisors Houlihan Lokey and Milstein and investment bankers JPM and MS will have a plan which will coincide with cap. rule comments ending and final rule and then consent decree, with NYSE listing any time between now and then.
Calabria will be at the helm up until this point and up to Jan. regardless of election.
That is a if, and a big if, that Biden really doesn't want $200B today vs. $20B a year for 2 years while the courts decide.
Like musical chairs buy FNMA sell FMCC arb the short and long sides as long as nothing much happens it's fine.
But when the song ends, the shorts will try to scramble for a seat and an exit, but they may find the seats - i.e. shares are all taken.
There will be an ugly day for the shorts and it will be in the next 2-3 month on the Financial Advisors plans being announced.
SCOOP is "speculative analysis" (alt-facts)
FMCC to r-ship and FNMA what?
Great video from Sep 2019 checking the boxes off on way to end of c-ship and recap.
Thanks for the reminder!
MC notes well that UST is really in charge here and the recapitalization is on them.
Good thing, huh.
MC wants 235 or more and Mnuchin will bring it down and do the deal.
Converging paths on the comment period and financial advisors report and suggestions to recap.
The only hiccups are positive ones: Scotus, Collins, or maybe even Sweeney.
Gapper - gusher or fizzle
I wonder if shorts are a bit nervous.
5% becomes 10% and 20% quickly.
Boat loaded - ready I am
FHFA webinar tomorrow will explain real capital rule amount
MC will take some heat for being too high and maybe he'll get the picture from questions and also from the investment bankers.
If there is a silver lining, no competition EVER if the capital is high and it takes years of earnings to fill the capital pit.
The gold lining is that conservatorship ends, stock prices will be way higher, as the ongoing fear and hold-back has been the spectre of receivership.
Fresh and independent BOD.
$8 to $10 by end of 2020.
(Bradford knows 6 months is the time-frame)
By the end of the comment period in 2 months, we should be 1/2 way there.
Power time no blocking on the ASK no shares left to short?
Ha
It's coming... that payback
That's why it is called a leak - low volume
But there were blockades being chewed up and that portends well.
Some shorts did not get the memo.
The leak is drip, drip, drip on news.
I think we find out more from Calabria very shortly.
Followed by Investment advisors
Followed by consent decree
Followed by lots of bubbly.
A little foretaste of Price action to come
Can yo imagine a 50M share day?
This will be ugly for shorts!
Finally, a little move in anticipation of Capital Rule.
Stay on board the 3:10 to Yuma and stay on for the next stops.
Popeye on ABA March 18,2020 "Expects delay Capital Rule"
The link goes to article, but this is dated March 18.
No delay from May, so the days are ticking away...
Were you trying to fool someone?
You ever watch a mob movie? Vito's "Bella Donna" restaurant has to pay for protection and when they can't pay, the nephew takes it over. The nephew invites all the friends of the family for dinner. Vito gets to be the maitre'd and plots with the kitchen staff to murder all in attendance on the big wedding night. Danny DiVito as Vito. Fill in the rest as cast.
They made a deal that Mudd and Syron and the BOD couldn't refuse.
Sheila Bair Form 3 says zero shares held
When she was added to BOD. Zero shares reported. This is a nothing-burger.
Alongz very smart short trader says to double down
He told me to tell you all! (Joking)
Seriously, though, I hope he's okay and happy with his profits over the years (because he has been correct on the downdrafts).
What is a popnlock?
Locked and loaded, and then fire?
I bot 1200 FMCC at 3.10
Which is a much better deal than shorting FNMA at 3.38 for 8k shares
I'd rather make money!
$3.38 SHORT for 8k OMG
You really are insane AlongZ
What a terrible article +1
The math and stats were all wrong
The "Litigation Lottery Ticket" is hogwash
At the convenience of the govt.?
Would have been wiped out, except govt. didn't want on the books? (Actually, no, because r-ship was never allowable for the MBS mkt)
So, TERRIBLE... but any press is good press!
Opening line correct - H.Lokey a major step
Ending line way off - May never happen this large IPO
Wanna bet?
Nice horse story Twins close HOD
Life is good (for longs)... for Along, well not so much
Spit the bit is a horse racing term
Flying down the stretch is more like it.
and I do think you can expect the draft rule by the end of the month
Nats - MC leaves it pretty open-ended as "sometime next year" (i.e. this year) or "in 2020"
I would love, love, love to be "by the end of the month"... and SM / MC in Seante had said they were 'close' to a number, but that was in what, Sep, Oct, Nov?
Painfully slow.
TIA as to why you think "by the end of the month"
Really happy shorts held 3:10 to Yuma at the station for so long
By clipping down and walking down, they have literally no shares to borrow and no one who bought is going to sell.
So happy we've got our tickets.
FMCC 2.93/2.94
FNMA 3.18/3.19
Thanks for the information
Maybe Collins comes in beforehand
DEC 13th SCOTUS what is on tap
Help me out.
TIA
December will be a very good month indeed
There are no sellers left... they pushed and pushed and got rid of any non-believers.
Two steps forward and one step back, but the trend is undeniable.
FMCC 2.65/2.66
FNMA 2.93/2.94
Two steps forward one step back
Up 10 cents, lose 5 cents
FMCC 2.53/2.54
FNMA 2.80/2.81
They walked it down and now they have to walk it up.
NO sellers. Got rid of all of the market-timers out there, thinking decisions and actions are "down the road".
The SCOTUS upcoming
The FA announcement coming
The capital rule announcement coming
The Collins 5th Circuit ruling on NWS coming
By early February, all should be known and all are looking positive.
We'll even get to see Abby again! It's all good!
Now just waiting for the big buyers
Shorts got no more shares to borrow
No guts to drive down 10 or 20 cents more
Escaping as quietly as possible
Won't be quiet with a few million shares as an opening attack.
To be continued...
FMCC 2.47/2.49
FNMA 2.72/2.74
Treasury driving the bus and holds the keys
MC sits in the back seat and asks, "Are we there yet"?
GSE common want 'fair' treatment and $3 for JPS ain't fair
Moelis wants 'fair' and asked for $8, $10 or $12 conversion price.
Citibank was very different situation b/c the PPS was not held down for 11 years by a takeover.
More lawsuits ensue with $3 conversion & Nobody wants that.
You're saying "quick exit" mode, which doesn't seem like the path anyone has laid out. June 2020 at earliest & advisors will come up with.... drum roll.... something very much like Moelis.
Also, expecting MC's new capital rules will not be as high as some suggest.
Won't be $180 (like Watt) b/c why do new rule comments if it was the same as the old rule?
Sit back and watch the courts & FA take this up, and up, and up!
(WhoTF sells now?)
Great post as all say JPS conversion
and Govt 80% warrants
Govt wants high PPS for warrants and converting JPS at $3.00 is not the way (i.e. 6 or 8 for one $25 par)
Walk down now a walk up
And, there aren't any weak hands any more.
Enjoy the ride!