Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
I think Oil goes to near 68 to form an H&S top. Then down hard. Thinking demand dries up on economic weakness going forward.
Sticks like this one usually get follow through selling.
Well, I've been caught short in a 3 up before. It'd be nice to be on the right side this time.
Casually trying to learn that wave stuff.
From mid-Aug.
http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=35881&u=gizmo&a=Gizmo's%20Charts&id=1154
Not sure how useful Rydex data is. Bear funds are not offered by most fund companies so Rydex and Profunds probably attract the lions share of bearish money. If all had a bearish option I bet Rydex bear fund level would be exceedingly lower.
Some could be hedging activity for long/short strategy portfolios and options related hedging.
I don't trust it as a reliable sentiment indicator.
chart of OEX put/call found on Google,
Searched stockcharts but didn't find the symbol. Any clues?
What Will the Market Look Like Over the Next 10 Years?
http://www.streetsmartreport.com/comm4.html
Thanks for remembering me and welcome to the club. Kaja may still be in his too but too numb to post.
Nice trade on gold. I could of sworn that sucker was going lower but did make 11% over 100% of my Rydex acct. so still happy with that.
I think the rally here is way early pricing in rebuilding. Most likely economic data and earnings will drive the market substantially lower first.
Yes it was am. Shares are down .03 from purchase price, I would estimate my entry was 1596. Was actually up a smidgeon on the day...thanks to the long hedge...now turned short.
Futes trading 9 1/2 above fair value. Flipping the long hedge short.
I don't know which is right. Just wanted to point out the other side of the coin. The debate rages on.
Looks like a test of the busted trendline from underneath on semi-log.
Pokersam. Could be that pattern is a rising wedge but it's along way to the apex so it's possible it bounces between the trendlines for awhile.
Or it could mean lots of shorts covered at the recent low and are now looking to hammer down a counter trend rally.
Fed should probably keep raising until commodity and real estate demand softens considerably.
Interesting that...ex energy the S&P 500 is off almost 10 percent since Jan. 1.
Late stage bull market soon to crap out.
Thanks, I hadn't considered that.
Looks like I'm wrong on Xau heading lower than the May low. I didn't expect the $USD to rollover so soon. I'm not one to chase but there will be other oversold entries.
Commercials and Large Specs are net short S&P. Small Specs net long. Commercials reduced past 2 weeks while Large Specs made a big move to the short side last week.
Your WAG is similar to mine...an upward sloping consolidation followed by another leg down...larger than the first leg I think.
Wild-Assed Guess.
...later this month. Pre-opex?
Hedged shorts. 52% long, 48% short. What do the big money boys want to do Tues./Wed.?
39.10 I assume. I have gotten shorter too but hedged it at todays close 52% long 48% short Ndx. I don't think the upside testing is finished and I hope to convert the long to short mid- next week at a profit. Tricky spot here...may need more time for distribution into Fed/Opex. So far just a test of the broken down channel.
25% increase in Northern Indiana too. What city/town?
I'm 78% cash after taking short profits twice. If the AM action in Europe and the futures show buying interest I'll be reshorting. (Have to leave early AM.)
I think we're headed to the April lows over the next couple months. I view the summer rally as retail driven w/o institutional support.
Volume was heavy today and will probably get some AM follow through but I think it's going to be a bull trap.
Yes, not far off from here. I'm thinking a period of upward biased consolidation and then another leg down.
Futures and Europe scared me into putting in a sell order at 4 AM before I left for work. Turns out Ndx was up slightly at the AM price where I reduced to 44/200. It was a small gain from the 1570 entry.
Up a thin 5.46% YTD.
Could form a H&S by dropping to 1183 then snapback to 1219.
A quick chart of the gap downs
Yep, looks like stops are going to be hit at the open. I won't be in tomorrow so will have to decide whether to cover some...or not by morning.
Right now I'm thinking reduce some...a bird in hand and all that.
I've seen alot of bottoms start being made with a gap down.
I don't base trades on Cot data. It's just another piece of the puzzle.
The ones to watch are the commercials which I believe are the big banks, at least in part.
Typically they grow progressively shorter into tops and longer into bottoms. A pretty good strategy.
Small Specs get longer into tops.
Thanks. Thinking reduce more into mid-week weakness to dry more powder for the next leg down.
See-ya
Cots. Large Specs were big sellers last week while the Commercial traders held shorts but hedged with some longs. Small specs seem to be withdrawing from the market as shorts and longs were reduced.
http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=36104&u=gizmo&a=Gizmo%27s%20Charts&id=1154
Elliottwaves - Nasdaq: First correction low to beginning of the week! Medium-term there are no changes to that, some months ago made, changes in the medium-term Wochenchart. All medium-term single waves since beginning of 2004 are only three wavy. This applies also to the rise to at the beginning of of August. Medium-term therefore only one correction wave is applicable. The favored scenario sees a tri fishing correction of several years since at the beginning of 2004, whereby the August Top is counted as terminator point of the wave (D). The current wave (E) has on view of 2-4 months a Abwaertspotenzial to 1.450/60 points. A BREAK of the lower tri fishing delimitation should not take place after possibility. This Wavecount implies a new medium-term boom wave starting from the late autumn. Courses until approximately 1,800 points are realistic. The computational Top is determined by the concrete, not yet available correction Low.
Illustration 1: Monthly Chart Nasdaq Composite
http://www.wallstreet-online.de/ws/news/chartanalyse/main.php?action=open&id=1740249&&m=...
As of Saturday, 563,000 barrels daily crude output had been shut in due to the threatening storm.
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/050827/energy_katrina.html?.v=2
A spike in Crude to $70 won't help and may be the catalyst for a ST low.
Ndx went farther up than I had anticipated but the position has moved into the black. http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=6988340
Reduced by 50/200. The decline may be corrected up to about 1590 where I would add back to the short.
Agree that a bounce has become more likely. Trendline/price support. I think the real down begins after some correction to this decline. Upside may be limited to 1590
Ecuador oil production down from 201,000bpd to 33,000bpd. Expected to take at least untill November to restore production.
----------------------------------------------------------------
August 21, 2005 01:17 PM ET
Ecuador oil protesters agree to talk
http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/nm/20050821/bs_nm/ecuador_dc_10
All Reuters NewsQUITO, Ecuador (Reuters) - Leaders of protests that shut down Ecuador's oil industry were freed from jail after agreeing to halt their attacks and negotiate with the government, officials on both sides of the conflict said on Sunday.
The protesters, who started dynamiting pipelines and vandalizing pumping machinery on Monday, remained on alert while both sides decide on a time and place to start talks.
Demanding jobs and infrastructure investment, protesters invaded oil fields in Sucumbios and Orellana provinces, helping push U.S. crude oil futures by $2 to more than $65 a barrel on Friday.
Many of the protest leaders released late on Saturday are mayors and other elected officials in the region. General Gonzalo Mesa, in charge of army operations in the area, said dozens of protesters remained jailed pending outcome of the talks.
Production by Petroecuador, which suspended exports on Thursday, totaled 33,167 barrels per day on Saturday, compared to 201,000 bpd before protests began.
"We think Petroecuador is ready to help us with some of our requests, the most important of which is that it and the private oil companies operating in the area build roads and do more to reverse the environmental damage they have done," said Edmundo Espindola, mayor of the oil town of Shushufindi in Sucumbios province.
The government is gradually restoring order since it declared a state of emergency in Orellana and Sucumbios on Wednesday, allowing authorities to restrict freedom of movement and association and censor media.
The government says it will take until November to restore Petroecuador's production, which is key to the country's economy. The company said it could take longer to restore production in some fields.
Oil output by private companies has been reduced to nearly zero, Rene Ortiz, president of the Ecuadorean Hydrocarbons Association, told Reuters.
VENEZUELA TO THE RESCUE
Ecuador, with only an eight-day supply of reserves left, is seeking a loan of oil from Venezuela to meet its export commitments.
President Alfredo Palacio received a telephone call from Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez on Saturday promising the loan, whose size is yet to be determined, said Palacio spokesman Andres Seminario.
Venezuelan Foreign Minister Ali Rodriguez said a meeting would be held in Caracas on Monday to study the request and the availability of Venezuelan crude.
Ecuador also plans to import fuel for domestic use and seek a $400 million loan from the Latin American Reserve Fund to avoid balance-of-payment problems from the oil stoppages.
The protests have been the biggest challenge to Palacio since he was appointed in April after Congress fired President Lucio Gutierrez for meddling with the Supreme Court. The government has accused Gutierrez, who is in exile in Peru, of being behind the unrest.
The protesters also want the government to renegotiate contracts with Occidental Petroleum Corp. , Petrobras and EnCana Corp. , to raise state participation.
Ecuador is South America's fifth largest producer of crude oil and, after Venezuela, is the second-largest South American supplier of oil to the United States. (Additional reporting by Alexandra Valencia)