Looking for my next Forex trade
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For right now, I'm looking for a minimum move up to just above 162. That would put us back at 162.05 which is just below a large bearish 5 minute candle. So I'm just going to set my TP for 162 and call it done. We can evaluate it more tomorrow.
I'm still looking for at least a retest of that upper zone first, Jav. The TDI made a new high peak but there hasn't been a response yet from price action to create a lower peak with a higher high in price.
It might tank from here but I'd expect at least a move back up to the previous supply zone here on the chart and it might even move up to the zone above that one.
4 hour chart...
So far the yellow zone is holding on the 5 minute chart but I wouldn't be surprised to see that lower fresh white zone get hit. The TDI wave count has completed a Wave 2 pullback and it looks like we're working on the 3rd wave up now.
From a price point elliott wave count, we've completed 5 waves down which should lead to at least 3 back up.
5 minute chart...
Yes, I went through all of them that I could find for many hours. Lots of stuff gets repeated but that just helps it sink in more.
Once you exit Qui, you should never re-enter the trade this far up. Always wait for a pullback the 2nd time or move on to another trade. Re-entering can get you in trouble once price moves in a given direction, especially if the trade gets invalidated.
I think Sam even addresses something like this in his videos. He talks about how greed kills retail traders on a regular basis.
Trade like a robot.
News isn't relevant actually. Sam has said multiple times in his trading video that he doesn't even really watch for news releases. The zones are the zones and he plays them like a robot regardless. Of course, the spreads would be out of sight during red flag releases so I wouldn't recommend the lower time frames during news releases. But the setups on the larger time frames shouldn't be a problem.
Yellow zone is still producing a nice high volume bounce here even though it's not fresh. My TP is set for 162.07 for now.
The current zone isn't as fresh as I like to see but the other 2 zones below it are so it's only a matter of time. The whole range for all 3 of these zones is only a bit over 20 pips so it's very low risk.
And here's the GJ 5 minute chart with the TDI wave count to go along with the zones. I should have checked it out first to see where the count was. I'm finding more and more that the wave count and the zones go hand in hand as far as which zone produces the bigger moves.
Waves 2 and 4 signal tops and bottoms. This is the Wave 2 retrace after an initial Wave 1 back up after completing 5 waves down.
I was actually about to post that, Qui.
There are actually 2 secondary zones right below the first one. It's testing that zone now.
So I should have done what Sam recommends and always take the profit at the 50% fib point for sure on all trades of this type. It's safer.
First zone in blue, second one in yellow, and third one in white. Either way, it's going to bounce so I'm not worried about it. That upper target TP I have sitting above 162 is still valid.
1 Minute chart again...
I see now why Sam says he books all of his profits at the halfway point with a fib tool placed between the zones. GJ stopped right at the 50% level.
He says that most of the time the price does continue on to his final target but it requires a lot more waiting time. I'll take his advice and start doing the same at the halfway point between the zone levels from now on myself.
I can see though how the TDI wave count can be used to optimize entries and exits. In this case, the retest near the lows actually gives price plenty of room to move on up to the top zone I have marked above 162.
GJ 1 Minute Chart again...
The best thing to do Jav is go to YouTube and look up all of the Sam Seiden trading videos. He goes over all the qualifying rules many times in his videos and he has plenty of live trading videos as well. They range anywhere in length on the videos from a few minutes to an hour. Well worth the time.
We've had it for a long time, Jav. I just went back and revisited the rules for true supply and demand so we can fine tune our entries better. The SupDem is still a great tool...all we're doing is learning the intricate details so we can make it better.
Ok, long GJ at 161.86. Looking for 162.10 or so for a TP.
Decided to close the USD/DKK long for just a few pips profit. After looking at the daily chart here, the current demand zone is experiencing it's 3rd test and is definitely not a fresh zone.
The zone below there has also been tested twice and is also no longer considered fresh although it may give a better bounce.
Best to leave it alone and look for another trade. It might still bounce from here and go crazy but there's still some slack on the TDI wave count as well. If this were a Wave 4 bottom, I'd probably take it and hold but it still can drop back further.
Long USD/DKK here at 6.60067. Probably early. Upper target sitting at 7.038 needs to get retested. TDI wave count could produce one more daily low but it's getting pretty close to a larger move up.
Yellen has the markets excited again but I can tell you that this rally is the final leg on the move up and the market will drop hard before much longer and take the risk pairs down with it.
Yeah, the small levels in between can be beneficial as well. They show trend sentiment shifts before the larger moves occur.
Closed out my last too-early UJ short for a bit over break even. I'm no longer interested in shorting UJ at these levels. The weekly TDI wave count and the consolidation channel we've been in for a while could easily break to the topside in a big way so I'm leaving it alone now.
Added AU short at 0.7636.
TP set for 0.72 on all short orders.
I don't see the potential for that kind of move just yet, Qui. We're getting pretty close to starting a daily Wave 5 down after this Wave 4 move back up is complete. Normally, Wave 4 retraces back to between the 61.8 and 78.6 of the last move down so we might not even make a new high at all. But we have to allow for all possibilities.
LOL! I wish that worked for me.
Here's the daily AU chart. Ignore the wave counts at the bottom...those are from the 4 hour chart.
There's also a secondary overlapping zone on the daily. The first primary zone comes from the 4 hour chart and the secondary comes from the daily. So I can't totally rule out one more new high here.
The wave count on the 4 hour and the daily shows that the top is probably in but we can get tops at Wave 4 peaks also, not just Wave 2.
EDIT: I should also note that the secondary daily zone I have marked isn't really a clean, fresh zone when I zoom in on the 4 hour chart so any new highs will likely be contained by the primary zone I have marked.
Yep, as expected Stargate. The charts were showing at the end of last week that the US Dollar was going to drop again.
Here's the post...I did forget to take into account the Easter holiday when I posted the "today and maybe tomorrow" bit but the layout was still clear for a US dollar drop.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=121427753&txt2find=US|dollar
Already beat you to it, Qui...LOL! Just posted the AU 4 hour chart with zones and the TDI wave count.
If it gets that far down, it's likely to fall through it and make a new daily low, Qui. That much activity means that it absorbed a lot of buy orders, so that makes it much weaker in contrast to a zone that has only 4 to 6 candles in it.
If you see more than 4 to 6 candles, maybe 7 at most, it's likely not a zone.
Notice that the current white zone I had drawn in for reference is now giving some support to UJ. It wasn't even listed on SupDem. I still don't think it will hold overall because that lower zone I have drawn in should draw it in like a magnet.
Not bashing SupDem by any means. It's a good indicator as far as it goes and it does a pretty good job. But, like any indicator, it can't really interpret true price action accurately, so you get zones that are too wide, false positive zones, and missing zones. But when you start with a fresh, blank chart, SupDem can help to identify areas of interest to start drawing the hand zones.
Nothing replaces understanding true price action. No indicator will ever be as good as the human eye.
Because based on the rules for valid supply and demand levels, it's not a fresh level. There are subtle differences between what makes a valid S&D level fresh and which ones are not fresh. I did it mainly to show that while the SupDem indicator can be used as a guide, there are many times it will show a zone that isn't valid and should not be there.
Here's the chart again with comparisons showing why the zones are either valid or not valid.
I forgot to show why the upper and lower SupDem zones are invalid also, at least as far as their width is concerned.
Yep, it worked out nicely Qui. The TDI wave count was already in my favor here but I entered the hand-drawn supply and demand zones to demonstrate exactly where they were. The SupDem indicator shows the top and bottom areas in the same location but the SupDem zones are a lot larger. SupDem also shows another zone below where I have my middle one drawn in that really shouldn't be there because it's not a fresh zone, at least not by definition.
Here's my chart again with my hand drawn zones in white and the SupDem indicator's choice of zones. As a reminder, my small white zone I have placed in between the upper and lower zones is just for reference for me. I don't really expect that level to hold for long.
It takes practice but the hand drawn zones are more accurate.
UJ Hourly Chart...
Well that stinks. They've got to fix that.
UJ Hourly Chart
Looking really good here for a nice drop. The lower side of that demand zone is the actual target I have in mind but I'll be out at 112 on the shorts just to be safe, which is right above the demand zone.
There's a small zone right there in between the two but I don't think it will present much of a problem on the downside run.
Cool! Thanks for the update, Jav.
That's a good idea, Jav. The more requests they get for the same thing, the more likely they'll be to add it to the next rollout.
ROFL! Now that would be a really nice Easter present, Qui. Just show us exactly where it's going at all times with 100% accuracy. I don't think that's too much to ask.