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Keyword "Investor"
An average trader who bought 1 day ago is still down 50% +.
Its all bad Timing
$AMBS
Some have it Some don’t.
& Merry New Years!
AMBS Global Online Growth Conference Presentation
Here's the companies mentioned:
Single Asset CNS Story, Eltoprazine could become something like this down the road
http://www.acadia-pharm.com/pipeline/ Mkt cap: $3.5B
https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/acadia-pharmaceuticals
Amount Raised at IPO: $35M Total Funding Amount $156M
Eltoprazine compare favorably to this compound
https://www.adamaspharma.com/pipeline/ Mkt cap: $799M
https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/adamas-pharmaceuticals
Amount Raised at IPO: $44M Total Funding Amount $82M
http://www.acorda.com/products/pipeline Mkt cap: $953M
https://www.crunchbase.com/ipo/acorda-therapeutics-ipo--08977ccb
Amount Raised at IPO: $33M
Parkinsons application is the lead for Eltoprazine with orphan designtion (2016) likey to get to market quickly. $2B+ annual market opportunity. Expand into Alzheimer disease where Eltoprazine compares very favorbly to Avanir's drug
http://www.avanir.com/science/pipeline Mkt cap: $3.5B Sold
https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/acadia-pharmaceuticals
Amount Raised at IPO: $200M Total Funding Amount $46M
Japan’s Otsuka to buy U.S. drug maker Avanir for $3.5 billion
http://fortune.com/2014/12/02/japans-otsuka-to-buy-u-s-drug-maker-avanir-for-3-5-billion/
Sunovion Pharmaceuticals to Acquire Cynapsus Therapeutic for $624 million US
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20160831006494/en/Sunovion-Pharmaceuticals-Acquire-Cynapsus-Therapeutics
https://web.archive.org/web/20141204151940/http://www.cynapsus.ca:80/general.php?pid=7
https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/cynapsus-therapeutics
Amount Raised at IPO: $72M
Axovant Sciences Ltd. (AXON) Mkt cap: $570M (was $2B+ in June)
http://www.axovant.com/research-pipeline/our-pipeline/
https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/axovant-sciences
Amount Raised at IPO: $315M
On Twitter since 17 Jan 2016 (1 days)
Shorts are nervous this weekend.
Lonza has to complete their work before the trial opens.
"Ongoing engineering run activities are progressing successfully, and Amarantus expects to complete the necessary steps to confirm the process in January. Upon completing the validation studies, Amarantus will be ready from the operational perspective to open the planned Phase 2 clinical study for the treatment of full thickness thermal burns covering over 50% of the body. The trial is being conducted under a Collaborative Research & Development Agreement (CRADA) with the U.S. Army at the Institute for Surgical Research at Fort Sam Houston in Texas."
Milestones towards validation are as follows:
1. Aseptic process simulation execution and qualification of the process and personnel used in manufacturing:
Completed in November 2015
2. Initial engineering run whereby autologous full thickness skin from an adult human donor is produced:
Completed in December 2015
3. Confirmatory engineering run whereby autologous full thickness skin from an adult human donor is produced:
In progress - Expected completion in January 2016
http://www.amarantus.com/news/press-releases/detail/2037/amarantus-provides-update-on-cgmp-manufacturing-validation
For ESS, you may not have to wait 12 months - Primary outcomes are measured at 3mo and 6mo after the last graft day. Lonza completes cGMP confirmatory engineering run this month.
Trial conducted under a Collaborative Research & Development Agreement (CRADA) with the U.S. Army starts up after that.
It's been proven to work going back over a decade so this is more about manufacturing and getting the process down.
Lonza Walkersville, MD -
"According to statute, FDA's rare pediatric disease priority review voucher program is now slated to end after 17 March 2016."
View the PRV as icing on the cake. Don't bank on it. Even if it doesn't end, not everyone gets a golden ticket. It's just one of the many potential options a company has with multiple orphans. I do doubt that it ends because of its success but the gov is unpredictable sometimes.
I believe details were given based on the PR. The folks in attendance have a leg up on shorts, flippers and new investors now. My guess is the Dx transaction is something that will bear fruit this year or next based on GC MSPrecise comments.
I could be wrong and a PR could come out on Monday morning and we gap up significantly. If that's the case, nothing shorts can do now.
I believe the fund managers in the room are interested in the big picture of the potential $8b market opportunity. Pipeline is incredible. Dx is icing on the cake.
To all new investors. 99% of the longs have quit posting because of the endless, repetitive posts that dilute dd. I visit every few weeks. At some point, I expect them to come back to counter the dark side with fact vs emotion and agendas.
Are you in the Watson believer or Watson is a fake camp? Seems like no one is in the middle on him and most have said his track record has been close to zero.
$AMBS presented details regarding a pending Amarantus Diagnostics spin-out into a publicly-traded, immuno-oncology-focused diagnostics company at the ICV conference late this afternoon. The event was invite only.
http://ir.amarantus.com/press-releases/detail/2040/amarantus-to-present-at-icv-sonoma-event
It appeared something wasn't right when you watch the video a while back. Feel bad for her.
This is why a product like ESS is needed.
When You’re Beyond Burned
Patrick J O’Neill, PhD, MD, FACS
Clinical Assistant Professor of Surgery, University of Arizona School of Medicine – Phoenix
Assistant Professor of Surgery, Mayo Clinic College of Medicine, Rochester, MN
http://www2.mihs.org/WebsiteLink/AZBurn2012/W...burned.pdf
Pediatric Burn An Overview
Kote Chundu, MD Chairman, Department of Pediatrics
Professor of Pediatrics University of Arizona COM Maricopa Medical Center
http://www2.mihs.org/WebsiteLink/AZBurn2012/P...ns2012.pdf
She said she is cognitively impaired with memory loss and loss of executive function in one of her postings.
Here's what I said:
You posted: "14 months since ESS acquisition costing $14-Mil."
One might get the impression from that statement they "owned" ESS for 14 months when it's only been 6 months.
It's been 14 months since they made the public aware of the acquisition. They also said they were working on this deal for a long-time prior to that announcement 12-18 months as I recall.
As you can imagine, untangling an almost a $2 billion dollar lawsuit doesn't happen overnight.
$2 Billion product for $14 million.
I hope you are flipping and not spending all this time bashing your own investment. Now that would be real stupid.
Just correcting the misinformation. Nothing more, nothing less.
Some forget that ESS was a complete surprise. Wasn't on the radar screen. I am fine with the company buying a product that was tied up in nearly $2 billion dollar lawsuit for whatever number you put on it. The payments that you speak of went to move ESS to prepare for trial which is set to launch soon. The nearly $2 billion is public record. I can repost if someone can't find the links. You can imagine when you have a product that others valued at that $2B figure you'd put all your focus on that over the last 6 months.
Happy New Year!
This is for MANF Gene Therapy. Keeping MANF Protein Therapy internal which includes a range of disorders: RP, RAO, PD, Diabetes, Myocardial infarction, Ischemic Brain Injury, Ischemic Heart Disease, Wolfram Syndrome, Glaucoma, etc.
http://www.amarantus.com/therapeutics-pipeline/therapeutics/manf
I should have also updated the post to add
2nd Generation w/Pigmented skin color matching grows market opportunity to $2B+
ESS may quailify for RPDD in Pedeatric Burns and/or Congenital Giant Hairy Nevus. RPDD submission for CGHN planned for this month. RPDD approval qualifies for a Priority Review Voucher. Last two PRV sold for an average of $300M.
Non diluting funding opportunities from DOD and BARDA. Currently receiving AFIRM funding.
http://wsw.com/webcast/ldmicro9/ambs/
This has already been used on a 140 people and it worked. You can go back through 13 years of data.
http://ir.amarantus.com/press-releases/detail/2024/amarantus-reports-preliminary-13-year-longitudinal
Back in 2010 when Regenicin announced the deal with Lonza the stock popped to $2.20 and a market cap of $185K. That was at the time Dr. Joseph Rubinfeld joined the Board of Directors. After that, the company ran into all sorts of issues.
Fast forward 5 years. What's the product now worth with the litigation cleared up and all that has transpired since that date: DoD backing, ODD, IND, Phase 2 trial starting?
Pharma-economics (Savings) for burns >50% only:
Low End: (500 Patients) X ($10K Savings/day) X (60 days) = $300M
High End: (3500 Patients) X ($15K Savings/day) X (120 days) = $6.3B
June 19, 2015 - 2015 Impact Investor Conference
18:05 - "The most important thing about this asset is it as a wealth of human efficacy data that has been out there and the key opinion leading physicians love this technology. We're talking about 3 out former past presidents of the American Burn Association are going to be involved in this 10 patient phase 2 clinical study and we think there may be some means we can get an accelerated pathway from a market perspective."
20:00 - " Near term commercial opportunity . There is no competition in terms of technology that have both layers of own skin. This is the ownly technology out there. We think in the US it's a $500M market opportunity not to mention other things diabetic foot ulcers, burns that are less than 50%, 30%, as well as ultimately some kind of cosmetic opportunity..."
June 16, 2015 - BIO International Convention at 2:30 pm ET
15:00 - "We believe this program will significantly mitigate enterprise risk as well as expose us to tremendous upside because of the data that has been produced since the physician sponsored study that is publicly available ."
11/19/2014 - AMBS: ASTUTE DEAL BRINGS IN ANOTHER SHOT ON GOAL FOR AMARANTUS BIO
11/18/2014 - Amarantus Business Update Conference Call "And with ESS-W, we feel as though we have found just a tremendous opportunity."
4/10/2014 - Development of the Mechanical Properties of Engineered Skin Substitutes After Grafting to Full-Thickness Wounds
11/23/2010 - DoD awards Regenicin and Lonza $18 million to develop PermaDerm for severe burns
8/18/2010 - Regenicin Completes Acquisition of Worldwide Exclusive Know-How Technology License from Lonza Walkersville
ESS - http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=116865030
JPM - "We're working on spinout out our diagnostic division in the near term that will allow us to put some significant capital on the balance sheet and really demonstrate the value proposition we have to investors"
Short Squeeze Coming Soon
[warning over the radio] Shortie? Get outta there! Come about! Let it- let it carry you out of there! What the hell are you doing? Shortie! For Christ sake! You're steaming into a bomb! Turn around for Christ sake! Shortie, can ya hear me? You're headed right for the middle of the monster! Shortie?...
[starts crying]
Oh, my God!
Words to record coming from the longest stock analyst following the company, now that Jason Napodano left Zacks. No doubt you are fully dedicated to your job following one company.
How does this work? If a message board reader actually thinks someone is a stock analyst based on how they represent themselves to the company and other shareholders, can he be held liable if someone follows their advice? Do they have to disclose their position or put a disclaimer at the bottom their posts like - I aspire to become a stock analyst, I spend most of my day following one stock, but have no formal training? Can shareholder sue if it turns out that person gave bad advice or was doing the opposite of what they say?
Do you think it's illegal for someone to pretend to be a stock analyst and intentionally mislead the public? Not everyone knows how and/or has the time to do research on their education and professional backgrounds. Do you think posing as a stock analyst and conning other shareholders can get someone a long vacation, at Rikers? Nice view, but the reviews on Yelp are not so hot.
Transcript of Amarantus BioScience Quarterly Update - November 18, 2013
http://content.stockpr.com/amarantus/media/782786d417b8894297ed7f45f31a9e42.pdf
The other guy should read what a real Financial Analyst is before pretending to be one. May want make a public apology to those he has fooled.
Becoming A Financial Analyst
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/financialcareers/06/financialanalyst.asp
Have a good weekend and I'll try to find some time to check back next month.
I know. I went over the line with posting what true analysts think (i.e. between $18 and $45 a share).
Kind of takes the fun out of making stuff up.
Analysts Opinion - Amarantus Bioscience Holdings $AMBS
Price Target Summary:
Mean Target: 31.67
Median Target: 31.67
High Target: 45.34
Low Target: 18.00
No. of Brokers: 2
https://finance.yahoo.com/q/ao?s=AMBS
November 5, 2015 - SeeThruEquity Issues Update on Amarantus BioScience Holdings, Inc. (OTCQX: AMBS) Highlighting Partnership with U.S. Army and Orphan Drug Application for Eltoprazine
Price target: $45.34 per share.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/seethruequity-issues-amarantus-bioscience-holdings-140000097.html
Unofficial FAQ
Disclosure: These views are my own, but my break up the monotony of others posting misinformation daily about the company here.
Why did they include the slide in the middle of a blog? Have they ever done that before?
No. It's a quick way to communicate you have 3 Phase 3 indications and 3 Phase 2.
BP only partners with company's at Phase 3?
I posted an example before that's not true, but regardless you have 3 Phase 3 shown.
Did it cost more for the company to have two images in a blog? Aren't they trying to reduce spend.
No. Yes, they have reduced spend down to $500K. Means another million to get them to JP Conf.
Why didn't they include the pipeline image for Dx and MANF?
Great question. Could be Dx is already spoken for and MANF isn't for sale, where ESS and Elto are.
Why is the company selling ESS or Elto?
Shareholders have said the company needs to focus. See it pays to hold the company accountable via a message board.
Why wouldn't they just have either ESS or Elto up for sale? Why both?
Double's your odds of getting a good deal. Provides more leverage. If you are only selling one, buyers are really competing against each other across both. Hopefully that makes sense.
What's with the ESS vs. StrataGraft?
Another insightful question. Anyone that has been following the company or ESS knows the difference and there really hasn't been any debate. Either it was information for a potential buyer or maybe (total speculation) even Stratatech is interested in buying ESS. It would give them a comprehensive solution on full burn treatment. Notice the direct link to their site.
Looks like nothing is going to happen until the JP Morgan conference? Does it make sense to buy a week before?
- Take a look at the last column of the pipeline slide. Note that is only for ESS and Elto. That's a lot of milestones some of which can happen in Nov and Dec.
- Add to that and update on Lympro - CTE and possible PET
- An update on MSPrecse (i.e. Largest Diagnostic Study Ever)
- The final Dx deal may be annouced at the JP conference but updates, LOI, etc may come before - "We remain on track to transact on the diagnostics division in the fourth quarter and will provide updates on this as progress is made."
- MANF - We know there is news coming here. For example Dr. Urano has said as much. They could also announce a MANF partner in the next few weeks or next few years. No way of telling.
Saw the shout out for Phenoguard? Why has that been MIA?
People say news is wasted on the OTC. A PR now saying the company found another NT wouldn't do anything. In a few months may be a different story.
"What's with the Georgetown option?"
Possibly new buyer doesn't want it or sees enough value in Lympro when including CTE.
"The company is going to make definitive agreement announcement at the JP Morgan Healthcare Conference. When is that?
It's the week of January 11 and they said potentially. I know some shareholders want guarantees, but life and especially bios are filled with many unknowns. They rather all bio CEOs say we have a slim chance in hell of getting to market just so they don't get disappointed. They forget that bios are high risk and high reward. At .50 the risk is small, the reward is TBD.
So they really are going to make a big announcement in Jan?
If the ducks line up, possible multiple announcements.
" JP Morgan Healthcare Conference the week of January 11, 2016 as a key time to potentially make public announcements of definitive agreements."
I'm confused. Is AMBS a a regenerative or a neurologic company?
We'll you see, MANF actually is both regenerative and neurologic but has much more potential beyond the brain. The "golden goose" has always been MANF. Selling non-MANF assests to get there has been the strategy from early on.
what did he say?
"all said, Im calling $4.00 pps by January JP Morgan"
A lot lower than I think, $4 translates to what size definitive agreements to you?
"CLIA in LymPro and MS Precise are serious game changers"
Game changers for the new company that buys them and value add to AMBS.
"if your not in by JP Morgan Conf. in January, you will be left out of an epic run... "
I would say "before". By implies the day before and that will be too late.
Market opportunity of $2 Trillion. Really?
Reality check. That would be 15% of the US Gross National Product. lol
That would explain your 20 posts a day.
If you'd listen to the presentation. You would understand the significance. Now go back to the 20 CEO is a liar posts. That's a productive day .
Listen to the call last week and read today's PR.
He'll be hiding at the Aegis Growth Conference on Friday in Las Vegas. You could go visit him, Dave and Watson. I bet one of them would buy you a drink.
http://ir.amarantus.com/press-releases/detail/2022/amarantus-to-present-at-the-2015-aegis-growth-conference
Use of Tissue Engineered Skin Substitutes Accelerates as More People Are Diagnosed with Diabetes and DVT Globally - Albany, NY -- (SBWIRE) -- 10/02/2015 -
They said in the last update the company is seeking non-dilutive funding to accelerate development. The type of funding will determine the pace. MANF's potential in so many areas increases the chance of funding.
Elto was paused btw. Not on hold, or halted as others have said. Enrollment was paused. Current patients are being treated per the last update.
Don't let me interrupted the daily tantrum session.
The company did a nice job moving from a LOI to a successful delivery. This successful allows them to move past this "barrier" and MANF for Parkinson's continue to move forward.
OCTOBER 03, 2013 - Amarantus Enters Into Letter of Intent With Renishaw for Convection-Enhanced Delivery of MANF in Parkinson's Disease
Oct 1, 2015 Virtual Investor Conference Notes:
ESS
- Preparing to initiative a Phase 2 clinical study with the Army in Texas later Q4 or early Q1
- Applying for 2nd ESS orphan for Congenital Giant Hairy Nevus that effects 1 in 20,000 births/yr
- Severe Burns pediatrics is a rare pediatric disease that they are looking at as a orphan
- Received ODD for the treatment of burns > 50%
- ESS operating under non-diluted funding from AFRIM.
- Of the 15 pediatric patients (average age of 6) that received ESS, 100% survived. Included a 2 year old with a 95% burn which has almost 100% mortality rate.
- Patients don't have to come back for reconstructive surgery
- Now have an active IND for severe burns. Relatively simple to get additional IND, including Congenital Hairy Nevus, now that manufacturing problems have been resolved.
- GMP process is getting re-certified by Lonza expected to be complete in Q4
- Product has the support of some of the industry's top KOL
- Potential for continued support. $130M awarded by US Gov. for wound care very recently.
- ESS was presented to a special panel in May. Some of this data will available in Q4. Currently completing a review.
- Opportunity for PRV which are selling at a average of $300M
- First gen ESS likely an immediate benefit for patients, but other things can be added to make it truly revolutionary and expand into a number of other areas
- Some data has been presented by Dr. Steven Boyce, the original inventor, regarding the addition of melanocytes as well as hair and sweat glands. There is significant potential to have a revolutionary series of products beyond wound care including cosmetics.
Eltoprazine
- Phase 2b launched in June 2015 and currently treating patients
- INDs in both US & Europe
- Focus on ODD for PD LID which may reduce the burden of bring the product to market
- Recent data published in the Summer on the mechanism of action of Eltoprazine which shows it's hitting right at the heart of the condition
- Successful Adult ADHD Phase 3 Study - Preparing and putting in publication format
- Used in 30 trials with over 600 patients in up to 6x dosage. Safty issue is off the table.
- Restart 2b enrollment late this year or 2016. Data in 2H of 2016 or 1H of 2017.
- Eltoprazine could be a potential value inflection for the company in the mid-term
MANF
- Two Orphans - RP & RAO
- Blue sky potential in a lot of areas including a disease modify treatment for Parkinson's
- Intent to make additional data available shortly
- Expand development program into additional high-value indications
- Golden child. Potential to generate multiple billions of dollars
- MANF entering the clinic will be a significant value inflection for the company
Lympro
- Completed enrollment and currently evaluating data to use Lympro to identify CTE with Boston University
- Evaluating strategic transactions now and we expect one will be accomplished in the 4th quarter
- Immediate value inflection for the company could be strategic transactions Dx division and uplisting
- Next: comparing LymPro results against PET
There are a lot of slides and some were skipped over due to time
Slide 28 mentions Lympro partnerships. You have to hit the pause quick.
At 31:54, they said they are evaluating strategic transactions (not options).
I won't mention that MSPrecise is targeted to have CLIA in Q4 with a 2.2B opp.
Link
There are a couple of slides in the presentation that answers much of what you are asking.
Thought I did because the legal docs said 1.8B, but point taken.
What's interesting was GC was saying quite a while back there were some developments in ESS that he couldn't discuss until after the deal closes and then we were in a quiet period. Now we are starting to hear what that is from another orphan, rare pediatric disease priority voucher, evolution of the product, other applications, etc.
I am kind of surprised they don't spin ESS off as the true value gets buried in all the products and noise, but would assume they will in the next year or sell it for a boat load.
Everyone has to come up with their own numbers of what is it worth today with Legal issues behind and at each of the phases.