get set..
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MGAM (send it to Mercy at Early Birds??!! :) ) & OTOH!
don't think it's grown feathers yet
OTOH and...looking on the bright side:
an opening gap with a white candle tomorrow would complete the bullish morning start reversal pattern if you count the nickel lower opening today as a gap down.
The doji today is supposed to mark indecision. There was a large block near the close yesterday and interesting action volume wise at the lod and an hour before and at the close:
here's a 5day so it won't disappear too fast:
It's in an area of some congestion from years ago (2001&2)support and resistance. Plenty of time to review filings & other due diligence, i suspect, but maybe it will pull a Lazarus in the a.m.
i would wait for confirmation that the bottom is in. there's a long way up from here and if the first .50 is missed it won't be a big deal. There was a lot of support broken in the 8.50 area that will now be resistance going back to late '02 and early '03 and early this year.
WLSF Imagine my surprise...
thought i'd sold it all...but still have some LOL
was so busy trying to get filled at .74&.75 that orders were filling when i thought they weren't...
was very foolish to sell first instead of adding then banking...that makes rebuying no problem. banking and wishing for more pullback to rebuy runs risk of watching train leaving station without you.
only problem is when your rebuy was hod and now comes the bidwhackers. i'm sure all have been there before.
XRTX charts
don't think they reflect AH movement on first posting:
longterm trendline was broken on the weekly (last week) but now basically intact again. (if 1/13 low had been a tad lower no problemmo whatsoever)
Channel Play: if up over $2.00 it diminishes the channel play as it moved over a substantial part the range, but brings a potential chart breakout to all time highs into play near 22
draw some trendlines
master chartview
the oscillator on top was adjusted from 4,3,2 to 14,3,3. More tweaking of the chart parameters will be necessary to adjust for longer swing trades vs. shorter swing/scalps.
Aroon & ADX will be crossing imminently and RSI nowhere near overbought....
NICE PICK imo
AMAT 16.25 buying on news / dividend stock repurchase
http://www.amtdrt.inlumen.com/bin/story?StoryId=CqKd30bKbmdGYyJiYotu
200dySMA 16.84 same as the 34dySMA
longterm
reasonable channel play with possible upside breakout of longstanding continuation pattern
AMHI IFLB WLSF finally got in before a big jump.
AMHI continues to be accumulated in quiet action
WLSF banked & missed reentry at .82...now have to decide if chasing is warranted.
IFLB
added IFLB @.27. fairly quiet today, but the chart looks setup for upside continuation
re: ACKO ...careful now
received a glossy mailing recently... from "Murdoch Opportunity Group" or somesuch touting their relationship with Ray Holifield.
decided to check filings to see if ACKO is "for real"
They have an agreement to acquire a working interest in 1 oil&gas well and an option to participate in the next five wells drilled by Holifield Oil. Co. has NO revenues per 10Q from 11/24/04.
Obviously caution is warranted. Check out IDCO for a similar steady frontloaded play and what happened.
just a heads up. who knows when they'll pull the plug and the bids disappear. looks to me like a pure promo with no foundation underneath.
Scan Hits: XTND PKD AZPN LRW
Bullish Engulfing Pattern (BEP): XTND late volume spike to new highs
Oversold & BEP: PKD Cramer doesn't like it...but mr. market did today
Oversold: AZPN check the 200dySMA. The intermediate chart seems to be a longish rounding bottom and it's coming up now
Triple Top Breakout?: LRW
longterm
masterchartview: diminishing candles & not quite stellar TA sentiment indicators (money flow) may delay this breakout
ELTK awakens from mighty slumber
as a foreign company it doesn't provide a 10Q-like U.S based co's.
in particular...no book to bill-like ratio. also hard to know if they painted the quarter with sales or shipments counted as sales without having rec'd payment as no # for receivables.
that being said the stock could go higher simply on momentum.
was really moving after hours today up another .50
website is outdated without recent financials: (from Yahoo)
Y/Y sales
'01: 25.9mil
'02: 23.4
'03: 24.7 (25.1 in pr)
'04: 29.0 which is 20%increase after 3 fairly flat years.
No idea who their new non-Israeli customers are or whether they will receive followon or increasing orders from them or other new customers.
Some of the positive earnings was 1x & non-recurring.
as a short term momentum play...based on todays up moves after consolidation 2x during the day and it's close near hod, it could do some more upside easily.
other PCB makers under $10 in share price include MERX, PTIX PRLX SANM SLR, DDIC SUNN ELAM MWAV SMTX
google: high-end flex-rigid Printed Circuit Boards yielded 463 hits!
# of shares traded today was almost double the float, so that the stock is now off the rails, and out of contact with normal ground.
IFLB added today at .274
refer to bb_stock's annotated charts.
If I remember from the live chat, QUIN (i think) is a market maker who is/may be representing shares being sold through the recent S-8. This selling pressure may be/is just about over. Check the level II's before buying in the a.m.
JADE: chart analysis + Lottery Play!
Jade hit my "3 White Soldiers" scan tonite
this candlestick pattern is bullish at a point of low prices following a bottom reversal, signalling acceleration. At or near peaks the acceleration is less bullish and could be the result of short covering. in JADE's case the pattern appears to be completing a cup with handle breakout. The chart below shows RSI & stochastics rising but not yet overbought, so more upside is certainly possible, even likely.
Holding stocks into earnings releases is not my personal teacup, but the chart looks positive in the short term. JADE based over two months 9/04-11/04 before breaking the downtrend from January '04 highs. 50% gain to first week in Dec. Symmetrical triangle failed the last week of January followed by another nearly 50% gain to high beginning of March. The consolidation since then has been quite shallow before the upturn that started Friday.
I further filter the candlestick pattern to include volume increasing over each of the previous three days as well as consecutive higher closes AND that today's price gain is bigger than yesterdays which is bigger than 2days ago.
Other tickers hitting this scan today: KKD PLCM & SNHY
The lottery play: buy JADEW. These warrants exerciseable at 5.75 are expiring on April 15. Last trade was at .03. If the earnings are blowout, or if the guidance forward is remarkable, such that the share price moves another dollar right into or after earnings, the warrants will move higher. I, for one, will not play this lotto, but it could be exciting.
Buy 10,000 for $300 and maybe.... :)
1.6 million warrant holders are wishin' and hopin'. http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/050218/hkf001_1.html
ANX wow
target? is there any way of predicting whether a stock reaching over 70 in the RSI or overbought in stochastics can stay to make higher highs?
good lesson that a sharp turn in oscillator is reason enuf to expect further upside and failure to drop to bottom of bband is no big deal
METH declared dividend / crossing 200dy SMA
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/050318/185273_1.html
longterm
not in this one yet, but looks to be about to break intermediate (6mo. downtrend)
IMOS Improving fundamentals/Positive guidance
http://www.forbes.com/markets/2005/03/18/0318automarketscan03.html?partner=yahoo&referrer=
link to last week's conference call webcast:
http://www.shareholder.com/chipmos/MediaRegister.cfm?MediaID=15180
Good luck with the new board
Mike
Scan hits: VWPT CDCY STTS IMOS NUVO
VWPT: oversold
CDCY: oversold scanhit...but had an earnings shortfall this week. due your DD
STTS: resumption scan hit
IMOS: own this in a longterm account. Recent earnings comparison was no great shakes, but the guidance led Lehman Bros. to upgrade and when institutional money senses a turn in a cyclical like this...
http://www.forbes.com/markets/2005/03/18/0318automarketscan03.html?partner=yahoo&referrer=
NUVO: most interesting candle Friday. a big outside day. will be watching for followon upside action.
JDI just does it :) GLFD MRVC OSCI
do me a favor buddy and hit the "enter" button when you are pasting charts to separate them for me, ok? I dub thee Sir Hammerman, though some of the last candles are dragonfly dojis.
I'm not sure how your scans produce your hits, but I look at the ones I find promising and look at the 10day chart and, if warranted a 1 minute 2 day chart.
Care to share some our bounce scan criteriae? PM me if you choose.
I'm up to me ears on the bb's so no attention paid, but the Naz plays i tickered above are GREAT!
Capitulation bottoms are the best plays and each of the them have the earmarks:
GLFD's isn't a classic blowoff bottom, but someone with $ was buying big blocks Friday.
MRVC had a more characteristic capitulation on volume and the kind of volatility that can make for a nice quick swing. My charts show the 3.50 area as a short term target, but want to see some buying volume and a cross of the Friday high of 3.15 for entry.
OSCI has the best of the 3 re. a reversal of short-term stochastics, but has constricting BBands and possibly less upside.
I was looking at LOOK on Friday due to it's pretty morning star bullish reversal configuration. But if you look back to the 3 day pattern from February 23-25 it was the same! And the stock dropped 20% before turning this week. So confirmation, I think, is warranted. I guess that goes without saying.
Geez, i spend more time analyzing your picks than my own. Thanks. I'll post a couple of mine tomorrow.
IMOS STTS AUO?
http://www.forbes.com/markets/2005/03/18/0318automarketscan03.html?partner=yahoo&referrer=
I own IMOS in a longterm account and it's remarkable jump on rather weak comparisons is obviously due to looking ahead.
STTS, one of IMOS' competitors, hit one of my scans last night and may be breaking into higher ground though it looks a bit extended.
ASTSF and WFR are also id'd by Yahoo finance as IMOS competitors.
XXIA & SPIL are also rebounding in the last year. If the semi sector comes back some of the equipment/materials/testing co.s are going to shine.
AUO which i also have in a longterm account is sitting on it's 200dySMA and would be a good buy when it fills that gap near 14.25
gd luck
if you please
Seals & crofts - Hummingbird
Cat Stevens - The Wind
have a great weekend
CDCY SMSI (followups) STTS (resumption scan)
CDCY really nice late volume Friday; short term oscillator oversold in bounce territory; heckuva candle Friday. still not liquid enuf for me
SMSI clinging to the 200dySMA. great late volume Friday. money flow turned positive.
STTS sector coming back into favor (semi test equi; check IMOS)
after completing a bottoming late last year. price has followed the oscillator reverses since last August 5like slipping a silk-lined glove onto your hand :) Am really interested to see if it can move to overbought on the oscillator as it never got to oversold this time before turning.
ANX mentioned last night getting some buys this afternoon
LOOK morning star pattern bullish
lookin for a little pullback
almost was in at .84, but decided to wait LOL
Scan Hits for St. Patrick's day: ANX BWEB(early)
Oversold: ANX
ANX hit my scan tonite. It has been on my radar since a scanhit on a resumption of the stochastics on March 1. I don't know if the failure to dip to the bottom of the bands is good or not. On the one hand can the "spring" be recoiled without dipping? On the other hand the sharp bounce in the stochastic and the share price which barely crossed the 8dyMA might indicate that a quick 10% move could be in the offing.
Bullish Engulfing Pattern: BWEB
the 10day chart indicates that further upside on volume may be in the offing:
the 200dayMA is at .545 and falling about .25/day for the more skittish. The stock has trended down since the first week of January, so it's perfectly reasonable to want to wait, but the share price held a support/resistance level of .45 from early last November in the last few days and that midday volume Wednesday is attractive.
WorldPokerTour-3/16/05
By far the best and most entertaining 2hrs. of TV poker I have seen to date with over 1/2hr of head to head combat between Daniel Negreanu and David Williams. Phil Ivey & Josh Arieh were at the final table as well. I missed the first hour but am taping the replay in a few minutes. Wowie Zowie!
NMKT early?timely?
In the furor over my MVOG madness this p.m. just before 1:30 i noticed i did not get a fill on NMKT at .525
you might agree looking at a 10day that an entry in this area might not be the worst decision one could make. At least the knife ain't falling!!!
Cramer's new CNBC slot...hmmm
luv's CMGI Monday evening: gaps Tuesday a.m.
pans GM Tuesday evening: gaps down Wed a.m. after warning
I don't follow the news tickers, and don't know if a little birdie was whispering, but...
if Cramer ever mentions a lowcap issue, the herd might follow.
I sort of watched his show today, and found it entertaining.
Here are a few of the tickers that stuck with me: loves VLO, likes XTO, sticking with SYMC, positive on WCI, ZMH, DVA, and the only lowpriced issue I recall: LVLT.
LVLT's TA indicators are not positive:
if LVLT makes an upside move in the morning it will indicate to me that short term daily plays on Cramer calls may be possible.
MUSE kisses 200dySMA.... Template Changes
I have tweaked my "MasterChartTemplate" to put the shortterm oscillator on top with the RSI. Shortened up the Aroon to better tailor this ticker symbol and will be interested to see if it has any reliability for other symbols whose periodicity may be different. I dropped accum-dist for OBV for no good reason other than lack of meaningful data i was getting from the accum-dist. My setup, as you will recall, is bull-bear ratio oriented, and I have put the varied "sentimental" indicators at the bottom and the oscillators higher. The 3 most important indicators for me, RSI Stochs, & MACD are closest to the candlesticks.
My initial oversold scan focuses on bounce capacity. I don't clutter up the "master" with BBands, but am adopting this simpler template for posting these plays:
ANX hit my scan tonite. It has been on my radar since a scanhit on a resumption of the stochastics on March 1. I don't know if the failure to dip to the bottom of the bands is good or not. On the one hand can the "spring" be recoiled without dipping? On the other hand the sharp bounce in the stochastic and the share price which barely crossed the 8dyMA might indicate that a quick 10% move could be in the offing.
My MVOG HORROR Story: hope you were not away from the 'puter
Wear Steel-lined gloves to catch falling knives!
03/16/2005 13:22:50 Bought MVOG @ 2.68
03/16/2005 13:56:30 Bought MVOG @ 2.19
03/16/2005 13:56:34 Bought MVOG @ 2.20
03/16/2005 14:02:08 Sold MVOG @ 2.305
03/16/2005 14:14:37 Bought MVOG @ 2.29
03/16/2005 14:21:15 Sold MVOG @ 2.41
03/16/2005 14:30:41 Sold MVOG @ 2.565
03/16/2005 14:30:54 Sold MVOG @ 2.56
Made a profit, destroyed part of stomach lining...LOL
Learned a good lesson.
PPTI playing this one again
bot this a.m. under 1.00 looking for teens
MUSE acting well at 200dyMA
next target?
PDSN: 2nd 1/2hr (rock) crushes 1st 1/2hr (scissors)
so...no paper LOL
needs to hold the 8.95 area and show sustained buying after the allure of the open which it has had 2 days running.
MUSE: you had to be a scalper to catch MUSE right at the top of the bband at 4.70. But it had a nice close on volume so higher prices may still be coming.
CMGI: had this yesterday at 1.85 when earnings was met with selling, but didn't hold it overnight and missed Cramer's rahrah. shucks. nice hammer
no drooling allowed...put on a bib or get out your hankie:
yikes!
XDSL a story stock ahead of itself apparently
OPCO was selling heavily into the buying that was anticipating a good conference call.
The LU/Bell Labs contact was NOT available to speak at the call...another faux pas imo.
I feel fortunate to have exited at .54 for .02 loss.
p.s. .48 maybe a support level today
50-200 crosses
Just added a scan to find stocks where the 50 is crossing the 200. In most cases the share price is already significantly higher than the 200 day.
Am not trading the crossover at this point. just watching.
So many ihubbers think that this cross is significant, "golden" or otherwise that it seems to have a life of its own... can't hurt to track.
if anyone uses this indicator for trading, does it make a difference how extended the share price is from the 200 day?
how often is the share price below the 200 & 50day when it crosses?
VIDE: 50-200 cross...hmm
Does a 50dyMA crossing the 200 have any extra impact when the share price has just come down and held at the 200?
looks a bit premature
Oversold bounce candidates: Short term oscillator reversals
52 candidates: the following symbols have not significantly crossed the 8 day MA (like GEOI) so may still be expected to follow higher. EDGR CCRD KFX SNDS ALTH ALOY WTSLA RAE FIX PSTI TALK RRA OATS AMTD EVC NYER
Oversold bounce candidates: Bullish Engulfing patterns:
TBUS, CBRX, IMGN, ACTT, CCRD, INGN
Up to you to do further sifting to see if any of these warrant your further attention. I usually look for confirmation before entering.
PDSN microanalysis
day open high low close chg. vol
3/8 9.15 9.28 9.00 9.19 +.19 137K
3/9 9.16 9.20 8.61 8.85 -.34 211K capitulation bottom?
3/10 9.01 9.15 8.94 9.01 +.16 74K doji signals possible turn
3/11 9.01 9.65 8.96 9.59 +.58 1.39mil high volume gain
3/14 9.79 9.79 9.21 9.46 -.13 85.8K open gap, selling on light volume.
the 50% rule (am no expert)
on Friday the range was .69 with eod within .06 of hod
gapped Monday not a good time to enter within first few minutes of open imo, sold down about 50% of Friday's range from it's close on light volulme, held at roughly the highs from 5 days prior and above the bounce from the capitulation, and then recovered to close above the midpoint of the Friday range.
Interesting that it gapped to almost exactly the top of the 8dyBB.
I think PDSN is a buy, and would look to enter after the morning open if the price/volume characteristics appear positive. The top of the 8dayBB could be sticky, but I would add to position if it moves through there easily. The risk reward seems really good to me.
first target now top of 13day BB at 10.20 which is equal to the hod on2/18. Next target is 10.70, the support level from 1/25. jmho
p.s to david3011: the TC2000 Worden chart today shows a huge jump in their proprietary Moneystream indicator (ranked 42nd of 6800 for 5 day surge) AND also in their Balance of Power indicator which has now given a "green light" as it pasted to the ceiling of it's possible range. You identified a negative divergance in intraday OBV. This is what makes markets what they are. good luck with CD.
EZTO: smack dab in the middle of a short squeeze
Paraphrased from BOT livechat this afternoon with a caveat that I don't pretend to be as adept as the speaker.
EZTO made a large move in the last 10 days to more than double from the .04 area. A short position was established that put a lid on the share price in the .09 to .103 area last Thursday and Friday.
This was noticed and, combined with Lebed's missive (posted numerous times on ihub over the weekend) and the eod action Friday that excited traders, set up a situation of "ask whacking?!" driving the share price higher. Any time some selling would come in, bidding through the large ECNs would reestablish support whereever two market makers were underneath. When the ask would come down, and never very thick, the SS (shortsqueezers) would hit the ask and drive the share price up, establish new and higher bid support, and forcing some covering and a new hod. This was repeated several (numerous?) times driving the share price higher and higher.
It was next to impossible to get fills on the way up today.
Consensus on the livechat was that there are a couple of more days to this setup. A couple of the more knowledgeable (IMO) traders thought that .25-.30 could be this week's top.
Please be advised that I have no clue and am not long at the present. I got filled 2x, on pullbacks only, and wish i'd held them all!
I may have missed a bit of the play by play of this setup, but this is what I gleaned and remember... Play at your own risk please.
LNDC had a major bump today
no news that i am aware of.
I still love this story for a longer term play.
Note that a multiyear downtrend has been pierced. I am too stupid to annotate, but y'all learned to draw straight line with a ruler some time ago.
:) if you check my posts you will see that i talked about MUSE at some length on both Chartstalker and Bottom Reversal threads.
it is up, albeit just a few pennies today.
PDSN OBV
busy trading...
OBV is affected by the size of the trade and the price. If an institution arranges to buy or sell a block of shares and there is any decent spread between the bid & ask I would assume that could greatly effect the short term OBV.
re. the "pick" see http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=5723588
i, personally, do not believe an intraday OBV is a useful tool. the bottom line is whether ornot buyers or sellers are in control. i posit that sellers are about done here.
P&F charting is nice, i used to try to follow it, but I gave up because it ignored volume, and seemed to be late. although for breakouts it is fine. I don't typically trade breakouts though I would like a good system to do so.
What indicators indicate..to me
David noted that stochastics relate to relative price and identified trending and timing indicators.
To my way of thinking there are trending indicators, confirming indicators and sentiment indicators: the trending indicator when properly tuned provides timing indicators for me. e.g. the 5dySMA xing the 10, or the shortterm stochastics crossing above oversold at 20, or various MACDs xing the 0 line.
I consider sentiment indicators to be things like OBV, accum-dist., ChaikenOsc, cum.moneyflow, etc.
Diligent study of candlestick patterns is very valuable. Linking the daily volume to the candle give you a great picture of how the battle between the buyers and sellers is trending. BTW, PDSN popped up on an Advanced Analyzer scan as displaying the Three Inside Up bullish pattern Friday night.
Though I am sure better mathematical minds utilize the RSI, ULT, ADX, and PPO or PMO differently, I use them to confirm my otherwise positive primary indicators.
I find Aroon to be completely mystifying, very dependent on each symbol's unique trending personality, and therefore, unreliable as a global measure for trending or timing. jmvho. If i had a small stable of tickers i routinely traded and could tailor a set of indicators for each it might make more sense to do extensive Aroon analyses...I saw some of that happening here a while back...too much effort fornot enought gain imo.
I enjoy the work many are doing here and look forward to more dialogue on these issues.
ps. I ran a simulation for Cendant from the reaction bottom last October? Not a good trading vehicle for my tastes. Not enough % oscillation in the channel. If you were an experienced options trader, on topof the implied volatility to know when the bid-ask of target strikes were favorable, then the increased leverage from buying options might make sense.