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At the risk of hearing the rath of all the Yankee fans and I know he seems to be a pretty decent person BUT...
Has anyone wondered if Pettitte is waiting to make his decision based on whether or not his name appears in the list? I know some here have speculated on Clemens and they are good friends. Not trying to bash him and maybe it was even a long time ago when steroids weren't banned but it is pretty obvious the McGwire did the low profile thing (I think that was a good decision) and perhaps Pettitte is doing the same.
This is a copy of some beginner DD on Moro posted on another board #msg-24788486. I thought I would repost it here for any future readers of this board.
1) Read the WallStreet Transcript Interview http://www.morocorp.com/news/Moro%20Corp%20-%20Wall%20Street%20Transcript.pdf
(or get from http://www.morocorp.com/news/index.htm )
2) Filings http://www.pinksheets.com/pink/quote/quote.jsp?symbol=MRCR&tabValue=4#getFilings
3)
Year Sales EPS Shares
2000 7.7M .06 5.65M
2001 10.9M .09 5.65M
2002 14.6M .07 5.77M
2003 23.1M .06 6.25M
2004 30.6M .18 6.25M
2005 34.9M .23 6.25M
2006 58.4M .25 6.28M
2007* 47.9M .25 6.28M (*9 months)
I didn't listen real close yesterday so maybe I missed Seizinger saying "I'll try not to take up much of your time since we don't have much to talk about".
His defense of management was pretty pethatic! Its as if he is trying to justify his salary. I think something like a GPC/ZIOP may make some sense but that is pure speculation on my part.
I am not too happy with Raj either boasting the risk reduced strategy resulting in a lower percentage drop in market cap then GPC! At least this time he was a little less boastful of that.
Your guess is in the same neighborhood as I would guess (1400's).
I was wondering more if Mike or Rawnoc would be interested in setting up a board survey with say 5-10 ranges and have people guess that would be a quick way to see what people are thinking (and perhaps some of the people who don't post may still take the survey).
How about adding a survey or two to the board?
I am always curious as to what people are speculating for the monthly orders. Now we have EPS too.
Has anyone asked Sandgaard about EU approval and sales, I believe they had said this would happen in late '07/early '08?
FYI Lazard Presentation 11/27/07 11:30am ET
http://www.wsw.com/webcast/lz4/fold/
Mike,
I have a bookmark but sorry to say I am just watching at this point. I tend to pick my press or let the opportunity pass. Plus I still need to do a lot more DD. I have a few starter questions if you think others may benefit from answers:
1-On the call they said about December doing maintenance and basically shutting down. Is a slight drop in revenue all that can be expected or is it actually more significant just the growth will minimize the impact? Any notion for this?
2-Going forward (long-term) is growth more driven by acquisitions, market penetration or new markets (Europe)? I know acquisitions are unpredictable but does history give any idea?
3-Do you have a link/more info for their last acquisition. Specifically what they paid and what revenues were before the acquisition?
Thanks in advance.
Commentary on InterMune buyout of the future Pirfenidone License Obligation to Marnac
See #msg-24789132 for story
I think the buyout price is extremely cheap considering the potential future royalty revenue. Couple that with the fact that Marnac is only paid upon a positive outcome in CAPACITY. This makes me think Marnac was more the seller then InterMune the buyer. But at those terms I am surprised one of the Royalty companies (such as Drug Royalty or Royalty Pharma) wouldn't offer more. When InterMune was in the 30's I thought a good (and fair) deal would be for InterMune to buy out the royalty for between 2-3 million shares and that would be straight out not contingent upon positive results!
Aside from the buyout of the Royalty this does several things. Should InterMune look to sell/partner [both of which I am against unless completely blown away] things are much cleaner in terms of Pirfenidone. InterMune has long stated they are pursuing life-cycle management options for Pirfenidone and have said patents is one avenue. I am not an expert on patent law but while I gather controlling the IP vs. licensing may not offer a direct benefit it may be that they have/are applying for patents that relate/build on existing ones that were under Marnac's control and having them all under one umbrella helps in enforcing/litigating should it be necessary. Yet another benefit though unclear from the initial PR is what else did InterMune buy? Previously their license was x-Japan-far east [which did not change] but was just for Fibrotic Indications. Pirfenidone has been explored in many indications #msg-24788957. Could InterMune also have found out something in their in vitro work? I'm hoping we get more details in the K.
ADV: New Management
No ADV is not the latest Biotech stock this is an advertisement for the InterMune board.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=8637
All are welcome long, short, no position, even PP shareholders who believe in Coprexa for IPF. Please see the ibox though (no pumping or bashing)
OLD IBox/TA Stuff.
I want to keep the Ibox compact. If any would like to keep the TA going (its not my area) please feel free to start/reply to a thread off of this post.
*****************************************************************************
InterMune Inc.
3280 Bayshore Boulevard
Brisbane, CA 94005
United States - Map
Phone: 415-466-2200
Fax: 415-466-2300
Web Site: http://www.intermune.com
BUSINESS SUMMARY
InterMune, Inc., a biotechnology company, engages in the research, development, and commercialization of therapies in pulmonology and hepatology. The company has a product portfolio addressing idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) and Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) infections. Its pulmonology portfolio includes two compounds in phase III development for IPF, a disease characterized by progressive scarring of the lungs for which there are no FDA-approved treatment options. Enrollment for the Phase III INSPIRE trial, evaluating interferon gamma-1b or Actimmune for the treatment of patients with IPF, was completed in April 2006. Also in development for the treatment of patients with IPF, the Phase III trials of pirfenidone or the CAPACITY trials were initiated in April 2006. InterMune?s hepatology portfolio includes the lead HCV protease inhibitor compound, ITMN-191 (formerly ITMN B), a second-generation HCV protease inhibitor program, and a research program evaluating a new target in hepatology. The company was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Brisbane, California.
CORPORATE GOVERNANCE
InterMune Inc.'s Corporate Governance Quotient (CGQ®) as of 1-Mar-07 is better than 26.2% of Russell 3000 companies and 29.8% of Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology companies.
*****************************************************************************
KEY EXECUTIVES:
Mr. Daniel G. Welch , 49
Chief Exec. Officer, Pres
Dr. Lawrence Blatt Ph.D., 45
Chief Scientific Officer
Dr. Steven Porter M.D.,Ph.D., 50
Chief Medical Officer
Dr. Marianne Armstrong Ph.D., 52
Chief Medical Affairs & Regulatory Officer
Mr. William R. Ringo Jr., 61
Exec. Chairman, Member of Compliance & Qualified Legal Compliance Committee and Member of Compensation Committee N/A N/A
*****************************************************************************
SEC Filings:
http://10kwizard.ccbn.com/fil_list.asp?TK=ITMN&CK=1087432&FG=0&alld=ON&BK=eef1f5&....
*****************************************************************************
Press Releases:
http://www.corporate-ir.net/ireye/ir_site.zhtml?ticker=ITMN&script=400&layout=6&item_id=....
*****************************************************************************
1YR CHART:
*****************************************************************************
[Links to related boards:
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=1418 (biotech values)
MRCR:
Mike,
Their construction segment has a lot of infrastructure which actually may do OK in the coming years (such as bridges). What is impressive is that while the margins have been bad (from David Menards remarks and some of the Income Statement its hard to know exact) the revenue numbers haven't gotten killed in the construction segment.
I think they are diversified enough to do OK in construction and I am a long-termer so perhaps if the construction is weaker then I think and it takes a bit longer for that segment thats not a show stopper for me in fact I've bought more then I imagined a year ago I'd own.
The HVAC has done great and margins have been above average. You can also take a look at what Rado to see what they have in their pipeline (they update it infrequently and some projects are multi-year so use it to get an idea not to model future revenue):
http://www.radoenterprises.com/currentprojectinfo.cfm
To me the company is more a bet on management then a particular segment and is a long-term type of holding (where there could be some time before a particular segment turns around). Mr. Menard has mentioned other areas he'd get in one of his main criteria are buying when no one wants it, he points out his interest in steal (rebar) early on. Anyone interested I suggested the WallStreet transcript piece.
A big part of my holdings are Biotechs that don't fit on this board, I'm not seeing too much here (Value Microcaps) at this point to invest in. Own a little PCYN but good luck trying to accumulate :)! Your mention of SHPI seemed interesting and I added it to my watch list but I may be opportunistic it buying into it.
InterMune Buys Out License Agreement for Pirfenidone
I like the deal VERY much on multiple accounts. I had thought last year they may have tried to do this in conjunction with issuing some equity there are many strong reasons to do this. I have NO inside information but I just got posting something on the InterMune board about the broad anti-fibrotic nature of the drug on the InterMune board #msg-24788957
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/071126/aqm022.html?.v=30
Monday November 26, 8:00 am ET
- Eliminates all future milestone payments and royalties related to prior agreement -
- Acquires core patents for pirfenidone -
BRISBANE, Calif., Nov. 26 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- InterMune, Inc. (Nasdaq: ITMN - News) today announced that it has entered into agreements with Marnac, Inc. and with co-licensor KDL GmbH that will eliminate all of InterMune's future royalty and milestone payment obligations for pirfenidone related to the prior license agreement the parties had entered into in March 2002. InterMune will purchase the pirfenidone patents rights that it had already licensed from Marnac and KDL, as well as certain other pirfenidone- related assets. In addition, InterMune will also acquire exclusive worldwide rights to certain additional intellectual property for pirfenidone that was not licensed under the previous licensing agreement, including patents relating to the TNF-alpha activities of the compound.
Dan Welch, President and Chief Executive Officer of InterMune, said, "Today's announcement underscores our commitment to and enthusiasm for pirfenidone. If our Phase 3 CAPACITY program of pirfenidone in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis is successful and we register the compound for commercialization, we will enjoy the economic benefit of avoiding $14.5 million in milestone payments and the 9% royalty on net sales, otherwise due under the license agreement.[It was believed the royalty rate was 10% so pretty close, not sure where I came up that figure though] The acquisition of this intellectual property is an important step in strengthening our IP portfolio for pirfenidone and supplements our recent patent applications to claim discoveries from our pirfenidone research and development program."
Under terms of the acquisition agreements, InterMune has made total upfront payments of $13.5 million. Contingent acquisition payments of up to an additional $53.5 million would be made by InterMune only if positive Phase 3 data and registration in the United States and European Union are achieved. The upfront payments will be partially offset by a $7.5 million milestone recorded in the third quarter of 2007, which has now been applied towards the acquisition. The agreements announced today do not affect the rights to pirfenidone in Japan, Korea and Taiwan, which rights are licensed by Marnac and its co-licensor to Shionogi & Co. Ltd of Japan.
About Pirfenidone
Prior in vitro and animal evidence have shown that pirfenidone inhibits collagen synthesis, down-regulates profibrotic cytokines, inhibits TNF-alpha synthesis and decreases fibroblast proliferation. Data presented from one Phase 3 study and four Phase 2 clinical trials in more than 400 patients suggest that pirfenidone may positively affect lung function and disease progression in patients with IPF. In these clinical studies, pirfenidone was generally well tolerated with the most frequent side effects reported being photosensitivity rash and gastrointestinal symptoms. Both the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and European Medicines Evaluation Agency (EMEA) have granted pirfenidone orphan drug designation for the treatment of IPF.
About IPF
IPF is characterized by inflammation and scarring (fibrosis) in the lungs, hindering the ability to process oxygen and causing shortness of breath (dyspnea) and cough. IPF is a progressive disease, meaning that over time, lung scarring and symptoms increase in severity. The median survival time from diagnosis is two to five years, with a five-year survival rate of approximately 20%. Patients diagnosed with IPF are usually between the ages of 40 and 70, and the disease tends to affect men more than women. It is estimated that there are more than 200,000 IPF patients in the United States and E.U.
About InterMune
InterMune is a biotechnology company focused on the research, development and commercialization of innovative therapies in pulmonology and hepatology. InterMune has a pipeline portfolio addressing idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections. The pulmonology portfolio includes the Phase 3 program, CAPACITY, which is evaluating pirfenidone as a possible therapeutic candidate for the treatment of patients with IPF and a research program focused on small molecules for pulmonary disease. The hepatology portfolio includes the HCV protease inhibitor compound ITMN-191 (referred to as R7227 within the Roche research and development programs) in Phase 1b, a second-generation HCV protease inhibitor research program, and a research program evaluating a new target in hepatology. For additional information about InterMune and its R&D pipeline, please visit http://www.intermune.com.
Forward-Looking Statements
This news release contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, that reflect InterMune's judgment and involve risks and uncertainties as of the date of this release, including without limitation the statements related to anticipated future financial results and product development. All forward- looking statements and other information included in this press release are based on information available to InterMune as of the date hereof, and InterMune assumes no obligation to update any such forward-looking statements or information. InterMune's actual results could differ materially from those described in InterMune's forward-looking statements.
Factors that could cause or contribute to such differences include, but are not limited to, those discussed in detail under the heading "Risk Factors" in InterMune's most recent annual report on Form 10-K filed with the SEC on March 30, 2007 (the "Form 10-K") and other periodic reports filed with the SEC, including the following: (i) risks related to whether InterMune is able to obtain, maintain and enforce patents and other intellectual property; (ii) risks related to significant regulatory, supply and competitive barriers to entry; (iii) risks related to the uncertain, lengthy and expensive clinical development and regulatory process, including having no unexpected safety, toxicology, clinical or other issues; (iv) risks related to achieving positive clinical trial results; (v) risks related to timely patient enrollment and retention in clinical trials; (vi) the results of the InterMune CAPACITY trials of pirfenidone may differ materially from those of the Shionogi & Co., Ltd. Phase 3 trial of pirfenidone; and (vii) the results as reported by Shionogi concerning their Phase 3 trial may differ from those published or presented in a peer-reviewed forum. The risks and other factors discussed above should be considered only in connection with the fully discussed risks and other factors discussed in detail in the Form 10-K and InterMune's other periodic reports filed with the SEC, all of which are available via InterMune's web site at http://www.intermune.com.
Each trademark, trade name or service mark appearing in this news release belongs to its holder.
Pirfenidone:
The main value in the company is two fold their HCV Protease program (191 is the most advanced) and Pirfenidone for IPF. While finding details about Pirfenidone in IPF is more commonplace it is worth noting Pirfenidone has been broadly studied in other fibrotic indications both in-vitro and in-vivo. While this may not help in producing a successful outcome in the CAPACITY program it certainly does give some creditability to the drugs board anti-fibrotic proprieties (note there are some non-fibrotic studies I've listed too):
Effect of pirfenidone on the pulmonary fibrosis of Hermansky-Pudlak syndrome. [Studies in HPS are the most related as HPS patients develop a type of fibrosis that is reported as being quite similar to IPF. The NIH is currently conducting studies in this very rare disease]
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sites/entrez?cmd=Retrieve&=&=&=&db=PubMed&dopt=AbstractPlus&list_uids=12126938
Phase II trial of pirfenidone in adults with neurofibromatosis type 1
http://www.neurology.org/cgi/content/abstract/67/10/1860
Oral Pirfenidone in patients with chronic fibrosis resulting from radiotherapy: a pilot study
http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pubmed&pubmedid=17540023
http://www.ro-journal.com/content/2/1/19
A pilot study in patients with established advanced liver fibrosis using pirfenidone
http://gut.bmj.com/cgi/content/extract/55/11/1663
A double-blind, randomized, controlled study of oral pirfenidone for treatment of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sites/entrez?Db=pubmed&Cmd=ShowDetailView&TermToSearch=15794387&ordinalpos=1&itool=EntrezSystem2.PEntrez.Pubmed.Pubmed_ResultsPanel.Pubmed_RVAbstractPlus
Pirfenidone Modulates Airway Responsiveness, Inflammation, and Remodeling after Repeated Challenge
http://ajrcmb.atsjournals.org/cgi/content/full/35/3/366
Pirfenidone Slows Renal Function Decline in Patients with Focal Segmental Glomerulosclerosis
http://cjasn.asnjournals.org/cgi/content/abstract/2/5/906
Pirfenidone Prevents the Development of a Vulnerable Substrate for Atrial Fibrillation in a Canine Model of Heart Failure
http://circ.ahajournals.org/cgi/content/full/114/16/1703
There has been other work too but this list should give a good idea. I suggest doing a pub-med search on Pirfenidone for those interested in other research/studies. http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sites/entrez/
11/26/07 Jobs@InterMune 13 positions http://www.intermune.com/wt/itmn/opportunities
Thought I would occasionally post the list of open positions at InterMune. Sometimes one can get a sense for where a company is heading based on where they are hiring today. Will try to periodically post replies to thread to track [OK, OK I'll admit I want to build up my posts to moderate the board :)]
Corporate Compliance:
Associated Director QA
Clinical Documentation Manager
Drug Safety:
Associate Director, Drug Safety Risk Management (DSRM)
Senior Drug Safety Associate (DSA)
Information Technology:
Director, Information Technology
Medical Information:
Manager/Sr. Manager Medical Information
Research:
Associate Director, Toxicology
Associate Director/ Director, Pharmaceutical Development
Research System Administrator
Scientist, Analytical Development
Scientist/Senior Scientist
Senior Manager/ Associate Director, Pharmaceutical Development
Stability Coordinator /Manager
MRCR
I posted a starter DD on the Value Microcaps DD board #msg-24788486
I'd be happy to get into discussing the merits of the company with anyone interested. I personally think if it were not a pink sheet, had more liquidity and were in a more glamorous business the PE would be about 3x what it currently is. IMHO there is too huge a discount being given the company because of these things.
I also posted this on another board (Sharing Knowledge in Smallcaps) that I am posting here (in case its deleted) as I didn't realize at first that board does not want Pink Sheets.
#msg-24788259
On ZYNX: FYI prior to the 8-k you (Mike) mention I believe Mr. Sandgaard had a line in the 10-k's about the possibility of a financing to grow the company. I believe in a 8k too when one of the CFO's was hired there was an incentive based on a successful financing. I was a shareholder and being a small company controlled by the CEO I was fearful of some huge financing by one of these unscrupulous financing companies that results in a large amount of dilution. I was relieved to see Mr. Sandgaard do a relatively small financing and very pleasantly surprised at how that was able to fuel future growth.
But I thought I would post here more about another company that I have owned for some time (before ZYNX) and like even more.
MRCR.pk is a pink sheet and I know that scares off some people (and is why its trading at 2.12 though the spread is 2.30-2.40). Its very thin (taken me a couple years do accumulate a good position) and .70 - .80 spreads aren't uncommon plus orders at the ask don't always execute! Given the above I'd add caution too that it is not a trader stock but for the long term investor. They also have some seasonality with Q1 and to some degree Q4 being below Q2 and Q3.
So with all those negatives (if you read this far) why own it? The CEO has had a tremendous job of producing Return on Equity for several YEARS and if you read the Interview he gave you'd see a lot of parallels to Warren Buffet. It is a frugal company looking at low margin but solidly profitable businesses and follows an acquisition strategy. The CEO owns a huge amount (like Sandgaard I wonder if I have a weakness for stocks were CEO's own the majority of the equity?). Look at the financials over a couple of years to form an opinion for yourself. You can probably talk to the CEO as I have if you have more questions and most of all read the Wall Street Transcript interview!
I won't run on about the company as I think people should do their own DD (I'd be happy to get into a discussion for those interested).
There is a board here
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=8604
but I've made the only post so far. They are part of the (now not so new) OTC-QX and you can see their filings there. I was a bit disappointed with last years Q2 and Q3 quarters (but they were investing in some expansion) one needs to keep in mind that a big segment of the company is construction so they have some sensitivity but if you have a long-term (years) perspective I think those things smooth out.
MRCR Brief DD
1) Read the WallStreet Transcript Interview http://www.morocorp.com/news/Moro%20Corp%20-%20Wall%20Street%20Transcript.pdf
(or get from http://www.morocorp.com/news/index.htm )
2) Filings http://www.pinksheets.com/pink/quote/quote.jsp?symbol=MRCR&tabValue=4#getFilings
3)
Year Sales EPS Shares
2000 7.7M .06 5.65M
2001 10.9M .09 5.65M
2002 14.6M .07 5.77M
2003 23.1M .06 6.25M
2004 30.6M .18 6.25M
2005 34.9M .23 6.25M
2006 58.4M .25 6.28M
2007* 47.9M .25 6.28M (*9 months)
EDIT: To moderator Sorry I just noticed your disclaimer about Pink Sheet stocks! I believe this is not a typical pink-sheet (has filings on OTC-QX, solid history of profitability) however it is your board to do as you see fit so please Feel free to delete this post if deemed inappropriate.
Interesting board. I found it from Mike's posts (I respect the DD he does on ZYNX) which lead me to it (and to SHPI which sounds interesting and has made my watch list for now and perhaps portfolio in the not-to-distant future).
On ZYNX: FYI prior to the 8-k you (Mike) mention I believe Mr. Sandgaard had a line in the 10-k's about the possibility of a financing to grow the company. I believe in a 8k too when one of the CFO's was hired there was an incentive based on a successful financing. I was a shareholder and being a small company controlled by the CEO I was fearful of some huge financing by one of these unscrupulous financing companies that results in a large amount of dilution. I was relieved to see Mr. Sandgaard do a relatively small financing and very pleasantly surprised at how that was able to fuel future growth.
But I thought I would post here more about another company that I have owned for some time (before ZYNX) and like even more.
MRCR.pk is a pink sheet and I know that scares off some people (and is why its trading at 2.12 though the spread is 2.30-2.40). Its very thin (taken me a couple years do accumulate a good position) and .70 - .80 spreads aren't uncommon plus orders at the ask don't always execute! Given the above I'd add caution too that it is not a trader stock but for the long term investor. They also have some seasonality with Q1 and to some degree Q4 being below Q2 and Q3.
So with all those negatives (if you read this far) why own it? The CEO has had a tremendous job of producing Return on Equity for several YEARS and if you read the Interview he gave you'd see a lot of parallels to Warren Buffet. It is a frugal company looking at low margin but solidly profitable businesses and follows an acquisition strategy. The CEO owns a huge amount (like Sandgaard I wonder if I have a weakness for stocks were CEO's own the majority of the equity?). Look at the financials over a couple of years to form an opinion for yourself. You can probably talk to the CEO as I have if you have more questions and most of all read the Wall Street Transcript interview!
I won't run on about the company as I think people should do their own DD (I'd be happy to get into a discussion for those interested).
There is a board here
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=8604
but I've made the only post so far. They are part of the (now not so new) OTC-QX and you can see their filings there. I was a bit disappointed with last years Q2 and Q3 quarters (but they were investing in some expansion) one needs to keep in mind that a big segment of the company is construction so they have some sensitivity but if you have a long-term (years) perspective I think those things smooth out.
Thanks. I think I have to post more to qualify so hope you don't mind the reply.
For those interested in other IPF compounds I'll try to post an update competitive landscape list.
FWIW I put Coprexa way down on the list for several reasons. I could elaborate but suggest people do their own DD. For starters:
1-There are other drugs in the same class as Coprexa APPROVED, their use today is limited.
2-These results are from an open label study and its worth noting are the only results in humans (that I am aware of). Without knowing the exact entry criteria its hard to know how well the drug did even in this limited case even so they don't appear to be very impressive especially considering no placebo control.
3-I think there are serious concerns of long-term Coprexa use which would be how IPF patients would be treated (unlike the few weeks in Wilsons). It is worth noting the first 3 patients discontinued and the dose had to be changed. One would surmise they may not know the optimal dose at this stage thus putting them at least 2 trials away.
There are more reasons but that is a starter. There was a discussion on PP worth reading on the Biotech Values board
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=24634932
I'ld also suggest the InterMune Readme
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=24264869
For those of us who don't know all the competitors and like to review the candidates, here is a yahoo link to the stocks (except RMPIF which yahoo couldn't find)
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cq?d=v1&s=ACHN%2cADLR%2cAEZS%2cAGIX%2cANDS%2cARTE%2cCAMH.ob%2cCEGE%2c+CGPI%2cCOR%2cCRGN%2cCRIS%2cCVTX%2cDNDN%2cDORB.ob%2cDSCO%2cENCY%2cEPIX%2cFLML%2cFVRL%2cGENR%2cGPCB%2cGTCB%2cIDIX%2cINSM%2c+JAV%2cKOSN%2cMNTA%2cNABI%2cNFLD%2cNPSP%2cNSTK%2cNUVO%2c+OLGC%2cOPXA%2cOXGN%2cPANC%2cPCYC%2cPLX%2cPP%2cRMPIF%2cRPRX%2c+SCLN%2cSPPI%2cUGNE.ob%2cVPHM%2cYMI
PP:
[Well it appears Feuerstein may read this board. Though he could have probably gotten a bit more for his article if he followed more of the discussion here, maybe he should have posted a link for those wanting more information :)]
http://www.thestreet.com/s/feuersteins-biotech-stock-mailbag/newsanalysis/biotech/10391475.html?puc=_tscs
Anand J. writes to ask about Pipex Pharmaceuticals:
"Any thoughts on this company with several late-stage drugs? Their lead drug Coprexa is very close to an [FDA] filing. Also, management holds a lot of the company stock and runs a tight ship, which is always a good sign."
Regular readers know that I place a lot of emphasis (perhaps too much) on the quality and trustworthiness of management. This is especially important in small-cap, thinly traded biotech stocks like Pipex.
Steve Kanzer runs Pipex and is the largest shareholder, owning just under half the company. This is a photo montage from Time that includes a shot of Kanzer taken last May during an FDA advisory panel meeting convened to discuss a drug from Dor BioPharma (DORB - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating), where Kanzer was vice chairman at the time. He has since resigned from Dor's board.
Scroll to photo No. 4 to see Kanzer being physically restrained and forcibly removed from the meeting. Perhaps he had too much coffee that day. I hope so, but I have my doubts. Suffice to say, he's not exactly high-quality biotech management material in my book.
Kanzer factored into another old story of mine on Dor, which also makes me feel uneasy about his leadership.
Pipex is developing Coprexa to treat Wilson's disease, a very rare genetic disease that prevents the liver from ridding the body of copper. This causes an excessive buildup of copper in the bloodstream, leading to neurological impairment and in some cases, death.
Pipex also believes Coprexa may be used to treat Alzheimer's disease and other ailments, but let's leave that for another column.
Coprexa studies appear to show the drug is effective in treating Wilson's disease patients, who number in the low-single-thousands. Kanzer has said Pipex will seek FDA approval by November, with an approval possible in mid-2008. His track record with drugs and the FDA, at least with respect to Dor Biopharma, isn't all that great.
Is there reason now to think Kanzer will do better at Pipex?
Saw this board has been abandoned. If there is no objections I was considering being a moderator (would be my first). Not that I have anything against technical analysis but that is not something I know about, my interest would be more the pipeline, progress and competitive landscape, so I would likely take down all the TA stuff as I wouldn't understand it much less be able to support it.
I am also not big on too many off-topic posts (I-hub has a lot of other boards) so I'd likely ask they be limited.
I'd prefer not to see posts that just hyping or bash without any substance as to why.
I'll wait a bit give someone else who may be hungrier to moderate this board a chance.
Seems there are no shortage of candidates. Here a few more that I don't believe have been posted:
crgn, acm.l (ACAMF.PK), epix, npsp, DDS.TO (DDSS), fvrl, sppi, plx
Until the past week dcth and ziop
I don't like to recommend books in general especially one I've not read (and heard some negative press on). This book goes to the point of looking at God through science.
http://www.amazon.com/Language-God-Scientist-Presents-Evidence/dp/1416542744/ref=pd_bbs_4?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1195871993&sr=8-4
I am a big fan of CS Lewis, I believe he was an atheist for some time. My memory isn't that great but my recollection is he along with a group of friends (including Tolkien) got together for weekly chats and one of the friends question him about something that led to his belief in Christianity.
For me I think the easy thing is to doubt and question finding arguments against is easy. Faith is the hard part :).
I wrote to them (snail mail) if I get one(s) I let you know (I could scan them if they do send any). I've noticed less and less companies send them then a few years ago.
ACAM:
For those conference call junkies suffering withdrawl today Acambis has a call today. FYI they have a dengue vaccine program for anyone interested, I seem to recall someone on this board posted about getting vaccinated.
http://www.fulldisclosure.com/conferencecall.asp?date=20071122&client=cb
Acambis smallpox contract timeline slips back
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUKL2122033620071122?rpc=44
LONDON, Nov 22 (Reuters) - British vaccine maker Acambis Plc (ACM.L: Quote, Profile, Research) said on Thursday it hoped to finalise an exclusive agreement with the U.S. government to supply smallpox vaccines by early next year. "We feel the likelihood of getting a contract is very high," Chief Executive Ian Garland said in an interview, without specifying the size or price per dose. The company had earlier expected an agreement by the end of this year.
However, the U.S.'s Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) did pay $3 per dose for smallpox vaccines worth $15 million as an extension of an existing contract.
Since 2002 the CDC has bought more than 192 million doses of Acambis's smallpox vaccine at $1.95 a dose to stockpile, before the Food and Drug Administration approved it in August this year.
Some analysts in a conference call remained sceptical of Acambis's ability to finalise the contract on time.
"Management appears to remain confident that the contract will be awarded in early 2008, (but) given a history of slippage we believe that it is unlikely any value is attributed until the contract is signed," Goldman Sachs' Stephen McGarry said, adding that his rating, forecast and price target for Acambis were under review.
"The challenge we are faced with is no different from that faced by other bio-defence firms, which is that the government has no deadlines," Garland said in response to a question.
According to Reuters Estimates, analysts were expecting a full-year pretax loss of 26.5 million pounds ($54.5 million), on revenue of 16 million pounds, before the announcement of slippage.
Shares in Acambis opened higher on Thursday before falling 1 percent by 1030 GMT to 121.75 pence, valuing the company at 131 million pounds. (Reporting by Alastair Sharp, editing by Will Waterman)
Was he more shocked at signing with the Angels or getting 90 million :) (It sounded to me like the latter). Maybe A-Rod could have gotten more from someone?
Well at least doesn't seem likely Fehr will pop out and claim collusion this year.
Not sure where church got it but here is a link from bioworld
http://www.bioworld.com/servlet/com.accumedia.web.Dispatcher?next=bioWorldHeadlines_article&forceid=46232
caveat emptor:
The results are PRECLINICAL (mouse model) and if you read the fine print (from the investigator) "These preliminary results need to be replicated and expanded before we proceed to clinical trials." i.e. These are just hypothesis generating at this point and it'll be a long time before anything is known in humans.
Thanks Dew. Appreciate the links (and I know I should subscribe for search). If I ask GTC do they give reprints and do they distribute analysts' reports?
Does anyone know if the full contents of this article are available (for free)? I couldn't find it on the GTC website. Apologizes if it has been posted on this board before.
The Land of Milk and Money
http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?id=the-land-of-milk-and-mone
also
Old MacDonald's Pharm
http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?chanID=sa006&colID=5&articleID=0008799B-7931-14E3-B93183414B7F0000
Thanks in advance!
I didn't follow him much with Arizona and Milwaukee but Estrada wasn't the same after the collision withe Erstad.
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20050607&content_id=1079996&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb
I know Ned Yost and he had a big clash (with the Brewers never heard of one when both were with the Braves).
EDIT:
And Oh look at what baserunners have done against him:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=4713&context=fielding
I think the Mets managed to get as far as they did with smoke and mirrors for their pitching staff. You think more of Pedro (at this stage in his career) then I do. Perez may have turned his career around but that to me is still an if and Mayne may turn to be a 2 (I would put him at a 3) but I thought he was too inconsistent last year (granted very good at times). If the Mets don't add 2 top-of-the line starters I think they'll be worse then they were last year (just my 2 cents). Haven't heard WFAN lately but I guess they'll try to package Milledge for top-of-the-rotation starter?
PP:
rkrw,
That was my first red flag. I have no problem with the assertion it is a great drug for Wilson's. And if I thought it was the next Cerezyme I may even overlook Kanzer and invest BUT there are already treatments out there the cost in the 100's of dollars. OK so some patients may need better therapy but that is about 10% (who don't respond to other therapy) AND I believe Coprexa is only used to initially get copper levels down (weeks) so I think the percent of the 6000 prevalence they get and 200 incidence is very small. I think insurance would balk at charging 200-300k as some suggest when other therapies are in the 1-2k range. I think Kanzer knows this and that is why he has Coprexa being the next cure for everything from IPF to Alzheimer's.
PP talked about Coprexa for IPF BEFORE their only human study data which was an open-label Phase 2a with 23 patients oh and by the way the first 3 patients in the study dropped out because the dose wasn't tolerated (they adjusted it). I didn't see specifics about the patient entry criteria (just that they were refractory but aren't all true IPF patients?). The results were not too impressive especially for an open label study. I am not even convinced they have the proper dose much less meaningful efficacy and a satisfactory safety profile for long-term use. So I can't see how they think they are going directly into a registration study?
While I like InterMune/Pirfenidone I certainly don't think the best treatment is near. It appears IPF is becoming the next PAH (in investment purposes) even got all the PAH companies thinking of trying their drugs in IPF (Viagra study, Iloprost failed, Bosentan study even Remodulin talked about). I would invest in a company I thought had a good chance with a drug for IPF (and where that was a meaningful portion of the company so I won't buy PFE) I have PP in the bottom portion of the growing list.
I think it is unfair to put the blame of the Mets collapse on Glavine's shoulders. The Mets had a colossal collapse and it went up-and-down the line-up!
There aren't exactly a lot of starters available out there. If you see him as a 3-4 starter (and not a 1-2) then his numbers last year (as a whole) are much above average.
Problem is the Mets were paying him as a 1-2 and their rotation has a bunch of 3-4-5's in it and needs 1-2 starts. Pedro is not a 1-2!!
Good Post Gilead.
I don't think people are giving us much credit for the great Q on Q growth (not even considering the mind-boggling Y on Y growth)! In a good market and a larger company would be getting a PE much much higher (perhaps Taser is a good example).
I am less worried about the cash flow then you though :). Did you notice in the exhibits that Sandgaard loaned the company 59.5k? Its good to know that the CEO is funding any (temporary) cash-flow needs with the need to do a bad financing! I think with the rate at which the company is growing and ramping the sales force with the long period to get reimbursed that is a (small) price we pay. I think once the growth slows down cash flow will be great but then people will complain the growth is slowing down!
There was a line in the Q about not ruling out the possibility of a future financing in 2007 or 2008 to fund growth. The good thing is that Sandgaard most recent financing was relatively small and triggered this great growth that has been for the most part funding itself!
Don't know if some people will be disappointed if so I'll sleep comfortably knowing our PE is quite reasonable! I think there is a long enough trend that people will start being able to better associate orders to quarterly revenue and earnings (good job to those on the Zynex board who had estimates).
PP - EPS of 12 million in '08? In iVillage you said 20 million (but you didn't say a year). I don't bet but that would be a good one as I don't think they'll even have sales of that much in '08 (based on current product candidates).
PGS Congrats if you still own PHRM!
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119542866365497341.html?mod=yahoo_hs&ru=yahoo
I obviously picked the wrong company when I was thinking to invest for satraplatin!
Interesting if Celegene sees more potential for thalidomide and/or Revlimid is disappointing.
Photo of Pipex CEO
Courtesy of Pipex Board Message- #msg-19893024
did anyone see this picture/news of Kanzer going nuts at the FDA? who is this guy?
http://www.time.com/time/potw/20070510/
4th picture
I guess with InterMune's drop in market cap expanding his focus to Alzheimer's and AMD gives more hype room. I have a suspicion there is no IPF program in the works (perhaps if they get *free funding*) as he seems to paraphrase InterMune's latest presentation (though he often misspeaks such as saying InterMune has an SPA-they do not to my knowledge). The latest is talking about a 72 week study (gee what a coincidence earlier this year InterMune expanded their study to 72 weeks).
If you really want a kick dig up the photo of Kanzer after the ODAC meeting for DOR. Someone posted it on the Pipex board and I believe I posted a link to the persons post.
For something not so funny one could ready the SEC filing:
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/894158/000089016307000211/s11-7240_10ksb.htm
On October 31, 2006, the non-interest bearing loans payable to the Company’s founder, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, which amounted to $3,274,728, were converted into 4,995,633 shares of common stock and 2,497,817 warrants to purchase common stock. (See Note 5(D))
In addition, as part of the private placements, the Company issued warrants to purchase 2,874,831 shares of common stock to the placement agent, which is a company that is controlled by the Company’s Chairman and CEO. The warrants have an exercise price of $0.74. [they’ve had a 3-1 reverse split since then]
For what its worth United had Phase 2 Data of OvaRex presented at ASCO in combination with Chemo (for Front-line Ovarian Cancer) and prior phase 2 work in recurrent ovarian cancer in combination with chemo both showing a synergistic immune response.
I am more negative then positive on the Phase 3 IMPACT studies (watchful waiting period administration of OvaRex). I think the data gathered thus far may lead to further studies in using immuno-therapy in conjunction with chemotherapy. It seems a bit counterintuitive to me but perhaps there is more to it if several companies are discovering similar results.
If I-hub had a recommend button I would have hit it on this post, my sentiment exactly! I would go through and listen to his 45 minutes of rhetoric though :) (When I saw the length of the call I thought it had some significant announcement but it seems Mr. Kanzer likes to talk!)
I think any investors in the company should at least do some serious DD on the competitive landscape and Mr. Kanzer.
I posted somethings (here or the Pipex board) regarding why I think Coprexa for Wilson's is not viable and my theory is that is why the company is touting it for everything from IPF to Alzheimer's. The drug may work in these but give me a break I think they have about 10 patients in an open label study for IPF and other drugs in the class aren't exactly SOC for IPF and I don't believe they have any human data for Alzheimer's just some rabbit preclinical study. I don't think even the most maverick of doc's would prescribe off-label based on what they have (IF they get approved for Wilson's).
As for Kanzer he has been involved with several companies that have at the least had controversy (CTIC, DOR) nice photos from the DOR ODAC meeting. If you see the filings the options and warrants he has (and through a company he controls) give him a nice low basis. But do your own DD!