Bobwins,

What is your view of cxti?

sam

gfci: estimates

Seems like forward earnings for year should be $1.00 plus. Am I thinking right?

sam

Mushroom,

I agree with you that the marketplace does not see Veltex as a pure scam any longer.

Thus the fear factor is greatly diminished.

I think though nothing is known about how to value the company.

Perhaps Matin now is doing everything possible to increase share value and maybe that has always been his goal.

However to operate like a legitmate public company, there should be a clear communication of what this company is worth in my opinion.

I don't think a market cap much above $10 million is deserved without proper communication of facts.

Matin may have a plan to gradually start doing that, but not everything about the past would bear scrutiny so that may be the status.

Based on what others have said and what we have seen, I
predict 2004 audit will be a disappointment because too much ugly past to be glossed over.

Reporting of 2005 sounds right if the positive looking course is legitimate for the unveiling of what the company is worth.

sam

To keep a negative outlook present, I am still in the camp that to gain credibility from my viewpoint, I would like to see evidence of positive cashflow and with that evidence a buyback of stock instead of acquisitions.

I know the $3.00 earnings last fall had to have been false, so how can anybody know what this company is worth?

I would have held for this runup but this is a runup without proof of good fundamentals.

sam

Thanks Gilead and the chart looks good too.

sam

GILEAD/PYNGF,

What is current o/s and what would be earnings or revenue/month on 3500 units/month planned?

sam

Paying .02 today is either the most absurd or most corrupt event in the market I could hope to see. Lots of people would love to sell at that price and look for an inexpensive buy.

sam

Valuemind VPHM,

There are a lot of messages here about this. I will give a short answer.

79M revenue I believe is way low, mostly because they raised the price of Vanocin 26%.

The debt is in the process of rapidly going away.

I believe in next 12 months $1.00 earnings is achievable because the 26% hike greatly affects bottom line.

I think a PE of 20 if quarters comes out that way is a good guess.

sam

SWB173:VPHM,

I should have read you first before responding to Bob.

My eyes glazed on that too. One can't pin earnings exactly anyway.

I think amortization is lying somewhat, but most companies are on iffy ground somewhat I think. I think to be fair if doing amortization should be loaded heavier on front end at least, but I guess it is not.

May not matter. If earnings reported are treated like gospel despite quality of earnings, we may still shoot up like there is no tomorrow. I guess the bottom line is hold and see what happens.

Maybe someday positive cash flow will the favored metric.

sam

Bobwins,

The way I and others read this:

"Guidance provided on March 11, 2005 included $9.0 million to $10.5 million of royalties to Lilly in cost of sales. Current guidance does not include these royalties in cost of sales. We will account for the future royalty payments as contingent consideration and will record an adjustment to the carrying amount of the related intangible asset and a cumulative adjustment to the intangible amortization upon achievement of the related sales milestones."

is that it will be amortized along with the initial payment instead of during. If they waited until the actual payout to show in earnings, it would be hard to assess earnings due to quarter inconsistency so I partly agree with what I think they are doing and it could be considered like the upfront. Also next year it is 1/3 royalty I believe instead of 1/2 so it is a judgement call. You are more from accounting world than me, but 'irc...' on yahoo board called attention to this and he is an accountant.

sam

Possible Disney explanation:

A positive twist, weak though.

Disney did not give one year because they were not happy with 2004 Christmas quarter perhaps, just as I was not.

Or concern about Trudy being bought.

Either way: Trudy said give through Christmas 2005 to show it will be better and convinced Disney enough to allow.

sam

Abh3vt,

Consider the following points. We are not using the company's last guidance for revenue.

Start again with 1st qtr. I calculate after taking out the unusual almost 14 cents.

You wrote:

Rev: 84.2MM
Less oper exp: 42.5MM
Less int exp: 11 - 12MM
Pretax: 23.5 - 24.5MM
FD shares: 57MM (assumes additional conversion of 5MM warrants)
FD eps: 0.41 - 0.43 Untaxed
If taxed at 35%: 0.28

I am assuming consistent demand from 1st quarter figures and costs the same as well.

Just a straight 4 * 1st qtr would be 55 cents for year. Obviously if you then jump the impact of 26% more on price and that 55 cents would be upped a lot more than 26%.

When I calculated previously $1.00, I came up with $106 million revenue during the process. I believe $21 million was rate of revenue for 1st quarter.

There is currently talk of a $10 million figure for sales in April that has not been resolved.

To sum up whatever the revenue, then subtract 53 million (I think is a reasonable figure) to get net income.

I believe there will be no taxes this year, but at some point they would kick in so that would justify a lower PE.

Depending on pipeline, I say then a PE range of 15 to 30+, so let us call it 20.

If earnings is exactly $1.00, I think $20 would be target.

sam

ABH3VT,

I can tell you are a sharp guy.

In your thinking what kind of price target and why are you now thinking?

sam

VPHM: WHAT is the tax status?

1st quarter detail I did not see anything about taxes, so I failed to think about?

No tax protection?

sam

VPHM 1st qtr earnings,

I am not getting 15 cents this time around when I attempt. Let me say that until earnings are seen for another quarter or 2, people don't know exactly what to expect.

17.4 Million net income - 6 Million - 3.6 million = 7.8 million normalized net income without a price increase of 26%.

7.8 million / 57 million fully diluted I think = almost 14 cents.

Even if this company earns just 70 cents per year going forward and a pe of 25, both too low I think we will be sitting pretty.

sam

Thanks Mushroom but no, I lost a small amount, could have been better, could have been worse. If I had not bought some at $3.20, I would have overall profited.

sam

Mushroom,

Logically one should address the merits of what is said I would argue.

I sold my remaining 1000 shares yesterday.

If I had to make a guess there is a 25% chance I will rebuy at some point. I can't say what circumstance that would be, I am not predicting what could happen, too tough to guess.

I will be watching closely, I will let you know if I buy again. I may continue to post, I have never tried to influence the price to buy lower, if I like I always post positive. If it is a good buy, I don't need to help, I just need to recognize it.

sam

VPHM questions:

Since nobody has answered I will say a little.

After taking into account adjustments I think fully diluted for 1st quarter was about 15 cents.

Under the royalty scheme paid out, in the 3rd quarter approximately, a lot of income will be farmed out as royalties but the expense is handled for quarterly reporting as a 25 year amortization so earnings will be steady per quarter except for:

Due to demand recently Vanocin was raised 26% in price so most of us believe $1.00+ earnings from that point forward.

sam

I think the most reliable figure in figuring this deal is what would a company consider veltex shares to be worth on buy when trading at $1.25. I say max $1.50/share.

So once again Matin used a stock that he would claim is worth $10 at best as $1.50/share.

Negative if you hope Veltex is worth $10.

If all along you considered Veltex to be fairly valued which is reasonable, then the deal may be good but with the fairy tale stories about $3.00 earnings $1.38 earnings $1.00 earnings, there is no way to know.

sam

How to value Canadian company bought?

If one does not use Matin's press release as a guide for contributing income,revenue and without cash amount being known, any guesses at all how one could place an independent value guess on what was bought?

The varying conflicting employee counts sound great, whether by that website or by Matin's claims either way.

The only thing for certain is what????

My submission anyway is Matin does not treat shares like Veltex is worth $6+ share. I doubt if the receiving party was willing at most to treat shares as worth more than $1.50, so that is how Matin would have to treat.

As an example in the real world if a company was worth $100million dollars, would company accept being bought for 20 million shares of Veltex with assurance that Veltex is really worth $5/share easy even though market said $1.25?

Nope.

sam

Invest1980,

I noticed. It is an inconsistency of descriptions.

The only press releases I have seen so far impressive are buy orders in name and dollar amount, but in the meantime I hope to sell my last 1000 at a good price today.

I think it should bother people more that the Veltex solution is to always increase shares outstanding. 5-fold in less than one year. I would be more comfortable with that if the company had described itself as having nothing to begin with. Why trust any description given, especially when there are so many holes in description?

This stock could go to $2-$3 though even if the fundamentals are questionable.

sam

I don't think there was a 21K purchase, but I don't know for certain.

These are small insiders I think other than the head guy, so I still think 21K might be representative if it had happened of an insider.

In 21K purchase scenario, either a confident insider 50% chance or 50% chance somebody bought inappropriately. They could have gotten all their shares at .014 with modest patience I think.

sam

Mushroom,

If we got a great deal, secrecy might be in order. The deal was not cheap if we were undervalued. Lack of credibility and openness is the mostly costly of all if there is nothing to hide.


sam

Pual/others,

I believe Mushroom found okay it looks like address of company and their website.

2 big unacceptable no-nos:

1) did not mention company name
2) did not mention cash amount

Really I am thinking a 3rd no-no is using 2.5 million shares which is a lot of shares to buy legitimacy? since overpaying otherwise since the 2.5 million shares translate into $15 million even assuming company worth $6/share. As for buying legitimacy, not needed if North American value being built anyway to show in future audits.

Therefore I sold 6900 of my 7900.

sam

Mushroomman,

What is this?

Link to the promotional products side of the acquisition:

Is that link something to do with the acquisition? What was the name of this company? Do you know? I consider this critical information to judge acquisition by, without the name I have no faith.

If we get the name, then we can zero in on something solid.
Cash being mentioned looks like a possible read herring on re-reading everything, because as well knowing about Matin.

If the company bought though is legit, then I could go with guessing roughly $3 million in cash would have been paid.

sam

I don't have millions, but I have bought my share of garbage, but I try not to do it knowingly.

sam

vphm: seasonality

I don't know much anything except if it was seasonal seems rather late in season to increase drug price.

sam

If this was the best penny out there, sure, but I don't think it is.

sam

I think 21 grand is a lot for this price on trudy all at once.

If I was planning to put in 30 grand, even then I would try to do only 15 for now and see if I could do better with the other 15.

My premise is without insider knowledge who would put in more than 30 total at this kind of price for this story?

At least by insider knowledge, I mean understanding well why Trudy is going to go higher. From what I can tell on this board, nobody has strong knowledge as to a price rise coming.

I don't think it happened anyway, because my sell order this morning for .014 has not filled.

If I could do it, I would sell all of mine at .014.

My speculation without buyout is this could go a little higher as Christmas approaches, but didn't go much higher for this past Christmas on speculation.

sam

If that purchase is accurate which sounds quite possible, either somebody has inside knowledge or questionable judgement to buy all that much at once at that price.

sam

Growth and Value,

The point that is most negative that should be on everybody's mind is it is now or never to start responsibly reporting everything pertinent. This is not a private company.

I will have to back off somewhat and say, I would not sell on acquisition except for the following:

a large increase in shares without an explanation I like.

Any share increase of more than 250,000 shares in my opinion should be properly and quickly explained. Particularly this company because it is highly questionable to increase shares on a supposedly dramatically undervalued company and also this company has a multi-year history of greatly increasing shares.

Last but not least this company at one point claimed over $3.00 earnings for 2004. I very highly doubt that that was true. At best once again I think the 6-7 million in net income was dependent on KCA acquisition being completed which it was not at that point.

Nobody should expect a dramatic price rise until this company is operated in a manner the public expects. That may never happen.

sam

I think if an acquisition is done soon, we should sell this stock if it is not properly written up in detail.

sam

If anyone is keeping up with outstanding share count, that is the only fact that is available assuming the transfer agent is telling at moment.

Otherwise to address Pual, maybe not the worst managed but the worst in sharing information. Could there be a happy ending waiting? Our main hope I think lies in watching sharecount.

sam

My question is what is proven?

The company won't go bankrupt this year due to extension. A modest profit like last couple quarters will probably continue.

What I would like to know though is, why believe in a rosy future without a stronger track record?

Does anybody know anything good or is it purely hope?

Sure a good future is possible, but I don't see evidence of more than just a possibility. Lots of companies have possibility.

sam

Rawnoc,

What do you think about trdy?

sam

McEnulty,

The guilt of the $3 million figure started with my post. Actually I threw out the $3 million in cash figure. On top of that also an issuance of stock but supposedly less than cash amount.

What is typical pe in private purchases? Would it be less than 10? In old bear markets, I think stock pe of 7 perhaps so why not pe of 5-7 for private world?

Everybody completely agrees that this company has yet to be detailed enough to draw serious investor interest.

PR did promise more details forthcoming when deal is done. I think it would be a first if we get all the details.

sam

Growth Value,

I forget the prevailing thinking about that cash balance on 2003 audit mentioned, but off the top of my head it seems unlikely that shares would have increased from 2 million to 7.5 million if that cash had been there.

sam

It is tempting to sell most of my position as this quietly drifts higher.

I liked the old press releases about specific dollar deals with named companies.

I don't like the reverting to the old pattern of press releases without detailed specifics. Some specifics on the purchase but not as much as there should have been.

To get $1 million additional net income if there is a shred of truth to, would have to cost a few million dollars.

One would assume under such circumstances perhaps $3 million cash was placed on the deal. I am holding in hopes that is true.

This would leave the question why not $3 million instead in buying back stock since it would be undervalued if $3 million cashflow plus has been generated in maybe less than 6 months by this reasoning. This would imply that not all money is in Bangladesh hands.

The theory again is maybe acquisitions are now being done for the purpose of preparing the company to look legitimate, look good enough to buy.

It all goes back to who is running this company. Deceptive and secretive, he definitely is. He also makes mistakes, ie trucking. The evidence though from those good looking press releases specifying names of companies and dollar amounts leads one to think he could be good at running the business to some unknown extent.

I hope 2004 audit helps.

sam

VPHM:

I like $1.00 earnings for forward earnings.

The question to me is what pe down the line on that.

30 or 15 pe. I don't understand the company well enough and also it depends on how frisky the market is about bio companies at that point.

sam

msgi: By 26% of course it means more than 26% increase to profit as it is 26% to revenue all as profit.

SaM