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No need to Chase this Rabbit? Carl seeded and Became wealthier. To top it off he created a Team of phenoms with connections and resources. We should see a small taste of what's to come in this earnings. We are likely to get more announcements after quarter ends this month.
You admit Carl Did not Cash out. In your explanation below he basically took a little seed and is growing a bigger garden.
A) He instantly increased his own wealth
B) Took CELH off the dirt road and onto the Autobahn to success. C) Locked the New Partnership into a Failure is not an option, Big bonus proposition....
I Say Brilliant
I am sure $9myn shares were not purchased on the run up.
16K out of 9Myn shares agreed with you and Sold today. And may have been same individual. 9 million Shares still believe this value too low to sell.
It is Cheap now. With all of the recent building and Financial Results. The only reason anyone sells the stock here is the Hope they can buy it cheaper in the next month before earnings, or another big impact announcement.
The Valuation is Cheap. Considering that in the market today, Topline Growth potential trades at a premium. I would would continue to own this above $5. prior to earnings and even higher when the next announcement of the next major moves coming to CELH.
You are going to need to explain how you view that CDS cashed out. Russell Simmons, Kimora Lee, and Li Ka Shing along with an unnamed investor have been brought in by Carl De Santis to add value to the company. Russell Simmons has a long standing relationship since Def JAm Records with Frank Cooper III Who just left PepsiCo this month after 5 yrs as CMO of Global Engagement. He recently went to Run Buzz Feed. HMMMMMM? Li Ka Shing has retail outlets In China and Europe. So Again what does Cash Out mean to you. Sounds like a valuable partnership to me!
Just remember, These investors bring an intangible to the table like no other!
Li Ka Shing, Have you heard of him? He's not about stock manipulation. In fact He puts his money in many businesses that get 1000% return. His second most popular target for his billions is in Philanthropy. Would a guy like this hop on the Titanic. Not to mention the other extremely smart money from Carl Desantis, Russell Simmons, Kimora Lee. Not to mention others like Shark Tanks Kevin Harrington, Flo Rida, And a few not so public wise investors. No Titanic here!
TITANIC??? You are labeling an undervalued small company with huge top line growth potential, a TITANIC? Rivets are strong on this one. Many new market entries are at the beginning of materialization. Go to drink for the consumers that have been exposed.
Not a concern at all. Just a nice way to reload
Investors are likely not getting hurt by a short term pullback.
"Iceberg'? What are you talking about?
Nice Try. Comparing the Coca Cola claim to a little talk show where Rush is being interrupted and cutoff. No chance this will do anything to the company but add exposure. Good luck getting anyone too concerned with this one. What happened to MACD?
Classic! You are going off on a guy who on a Radio show that was continually being interrupted and sentences cutoff missed a statement. How about the guy on the Heineken commercial saying they will give you money back.
No Proof of Intention to Deceive. The Bottom line is Uncle Rush is telling the world, He's got this MONSTER (Pun Intended} ramped up to handle volumes of demand. I honestly hope that you get regulators stirred up about this. "A Sleeping Giant has Awoke"
Please, the publicity would be awesome!!!
can you put your best guess numbers with tthe multitude of added cost you speak of? Or at least what is fixed vs variable. As we know most of the infrastructure is in place for a lot of what you outline. Beverages are sold overseas in Brazil/Europe/China quite often. Not a show stopper.
1)Brazil is small, 2)CELH does not own a plant so manufacturing decreases for the plant as it fills capacity and increases yield. Toll cost declines, 3)Phone call from new owners to increase number of suppliers competing for their biz as well as purchasing power of other biz not just CELSIUS. 4)Revenue is not a return on capital, but is a topline that will generate a return. Inventory turnover on non-frozen bev is very quick and will not take long to reflect in Income statements. 5)There was an additional investment along with the $15.9 that increases the capital to close to $20myn.
Toll processing is very common place in the beverage industry as it allows manufactures to flip the bill for large capital needs of production processing. They are more skilled at efficiencies and will gladly cut toll fees for increases in batch sizes as small batches are costly in yield and downtime.
There are quite a few intelligent long-term investors in this one.
Simple Response to your Thesis because this is why I totally disagree.
This group does not have the mindset if you build it they will come. Demand is taking a rapid natural progression in multiple markets that have been asking for it.
The manufacturing costs you speak of are actually going to be cut as ramped up larger batch sizes will decrease manufacturing costs.(Mostly for Orders) Raw ingredients costs will decrease as well because both purchasing power and unit freight costs will decline. The toll agreements for manufacturing are likely defined to cut tolling cost with economies of scale for the increased batch sizes.
True, Raw ingredient costs will likely be incurred up front, but most suppliers have decent terms with a show of strength in balance sheet. Not to mention a couple phone calls from the new high powered partners.
Raw ingredients cost along with manufacturing will be turned into cash with inventory turnover at a conservative 1 to 3 months.
I think it is evident that Rush, Li Ka-Shing, along with the rest of the group would in no way tolerate a $6myn revenue growth year over year on an almost $20 myn capital investment.
Without the investment the company was likely due for a $24+myn Revenue in 2015 given the current natural year over year growth.
Are your sales projections prior to the New Capital and Market announcements? Also the SGA has been steadily decreasing with increasing Revenue. Explain how you say that will dramatically change.
The MACD 50-100 day is at Max Strongest.
Please convince me. This Company has never appeared stronger from what I see.
Nice little window into depth of product traction. How many folks read USA Today Sports?
What is going to be significant about the earnings report? Expectations are likely priced in, am I missing something?
If you want that, you may get it. I think time is limited for that though!
You clearly supported my point...
That's funny and I don't believe you believe it either. Some of the commentary you guys post comes off pretty slithery. If the latest investors had what you say in mind, wouldn't it be a priority to hop back on the NASDAQ for just $500k/yr. I Certainly believe that the new capital is being used prudently. Same as the last 2 quarters showed. If you have been really following the product and its culture, you may have heard the term "sales explosion" used as they've used the capital to enter new markets both domestic and abroad. IMO this group only entered this venture with the intent to bring it HOME!
Good luck waiting on a $1.00, I honestly I hope you are right. Just don't think that: 1) there is time between now and earnings report to push pps that far. 2) We will see 2Q reports that will support your move to $1.00.
By the response, I am not sure you know this company all that well. I can't wait to see what this company has done with additional capital.
Something is flawed in your valuation, as there doesn't appear to be enough selling in order to get to your $1.00 pps. May have something to do with Supply & Demand. Not enough outstanding shares available for sale.
Proud of the solid shaehplders
I have never heard of Timothy Styles, However just googled him and his reputation doesn't appear so dignified. Would he be silly enough to game this team as it moves to the big leagues?
Suppose that if what you explain makes sense, How much more short volume do you suspect needed to get to $1.00? I suspect that there is not much time as the cover will likely come well ahead of next earnings report.
Good Commentary.
A lot of work behind your analysis. However it is 1 maybe 2 quarters behind. CELH group has shown that they can grow revenue without additional capital. Which leads to the conclusion that Inventory turnover is increasing due to demand and fine tuned placement of inventory. Capital Constraints is the basis of your calc.
What if you were to add into your model an assumption that the new capital infused into the business were to be turned into revenue 1X to 1.5X over the 2nd quarter. You would have to assume that demand is there. But given the superstar marketing that comes along with the Investors' capital infusion along with the outstanding product reception. You may or may not come up with a different valuation.
Let us forget that new revenue begins above BE.
I agree. The history holds the stock back as no one ever truly forgets. However if this growth and profitability had existed initially, stock price would be at least four-fold. I would rather wait for this company to mature, rather than Carl to decide to sell too early. I believe any of the big beverage players would purchase this company at much higher than $30-$50myn cap. if Carl decided to unload.
This stock has come a long way. Doubled in less than a month, on relatively small volume. There is a window after news that Shorts sense weakness and sell borrowed shares to try and spark more selling. If it works they buy later at a lower price, if it doesn't they will have to cover and could spark a new trend up. This stock has dealt with this forever. Could be different with a black net income folks may be a little harder to scare off.
Hitting Break Even was HUGE!
lol, you don't want to acknowledge that. therefore I don't feel the need to chase your rabbits. Bottom line is after last quarter any money put back into the biz will earn 40% less interest cost and dividend. The new volume will likely increase margin with larger production runs. The positive income will hopefully invite more cheap debt for this money maker.
When this company submits their new financials, they will likely get increased credit line from suppliers. (free money with volume price breaks).
Some folks recognize the significance as stock price doubled. Can the shorts push it down? It is protected by a small float and i am sure new prospectors.
Do you have a Subpoena?
Here is why it is positive.
First you have to look at the 700 aside from the whole. Without the $700K there would not have been a build in inventory and an offering of Credit line to customers. Without that there would not have been the related growth of sales. All other cost already exist and are covered at break-even volume. the key to quarter 4 was the established break-even volume. (I didn't have until 1st qtr 2015) In short, any new cash spent now At should earn 40% margin after the interest any left would go to cash flow or used for further growth.
Market Cap Would be?
What would Kezzek Put as a fair market cap on this one?
Then use your Method on GOPRO and MNST...Whacky huh!