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Try this one:-
Why are you here?
Not totally conclusive given the machinations of these guys...
Not too sure it actually is AF. Might just be Pyrrh re-inventing himself yet again. Not that it makes any difference. Both have the same agenda. Both refuse to answer simple direct questions.
if it is AF, he is doing nothing for his own credibility or his own cause, as his arguments are being convincingly countered at every turn. He cannot block posters on this board...
Expect him to go quiet soon, as it's not working for him.
Mr Feuerstein. Your rather arrogant, dogmatic reply reminds me of another erstwhile board poster!
You don't have a handle on the science, so I don't think you can have an informed judgement on the fundamentals.
I think you are here to hammer home a message that NWBO is a 'bad' investment per se.
At least you are consistent. Coming from the 'school' that you do, i really don't think that fundamentals come in to it for you. That is why I consider it safe to disregard your stated opinions, which will always come with a grossly subjective slant.
You are just on a mission to 'talk down' the stock at every opportunity, because it suits your own ends.
Try to engage in some objective discussion while you're on this board. I think this will come very hard for you.
You do not know what is Woodfords current thinking. He could easily have sold out of NWBO if he had fundamentally changed his view. He incurred considerable losses selling out of Rolls Royce just recently.
In my opinion, at current PPS, this is a very attractive investment in terms of risk/reward. Any number of forthcoming catalysts could potentially cause the price to rocket.
I am happy with my investment position. It really is the shorts who should have cause for concern, and who face potentially ruinous losses, precisely what happened to Shkreli when he miscalculated, as you describe...
Hello Mr. Feuerstein
Quite amazing that you are here at this point in time.
Let me ask you:-
You've previously described Martin Shkreli as 'super smart' and that he 'will be a great asset somewhere' Where do you think that will be?
How do you think that today's events will affect the activities of organised short sellers and naked short sellers in particular?
Do you think that small biotechs such as NWBO will now be allowed to trade based on fundamentals, without repeated, concerted, organised short attacks?
I wonder what the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists would make of the present scenario?
I'd love them to pick up on this.
Regarding Pyrrh's comments on Direct safety.
The Phase 1 abstract presented on 20/4 stated the following:-
'The MTD has not been reached and there were no dose limiting toxicities. Two patients experienced Grade 3/4 drug related toxicities : one case of fever and dehydration and one case of systemic inflammatory response syndrome.'
The maximum tolerated dose was not reached, there were no dose limiting toxicities. Three different dosage levels were tried.
Pretty good I'd say!
No mention of 'sepsis'...
Direct, imho, is fundamentally safe. Particularly in relation to competing therapies such as Keytruda..
If the FDA weigh up efficacy against adverse effects, then Direct is much more likely to receive approval than the competing therapies.
'Fears sells faster than hope buys'
So lets spread some fear then...
'Longs are once more starting to become disillusioned over no Direct data (yet again)'
Not this long..
'Ive literally destroyed everyone'
Hmmm, does your arrogance know no bounds? I don't consider myself destroyed in any way.
Patient Capital in FTSE 250.
Because of its size, Woodfords Patient Capital Trust will make its way straight into the FTSE 250 index.
As such, it will be bought by Index tracker funds and by UK savings and Pension vehicles such as ISA's and SIPP's.
And this will lead to significantly increased interest and comment on its individual holdings.
I think I have found info regarding Patient Capitals first holding:-
Report on Proactiveinvestors site:-
'Sphere Medical (LON:SPHR) has confirmed that Neil Woodford’s Patient Capital Trust (LON:WPCT) has agreed to purchase £4mln worth of its shares in an upcoming placing.
The medical device maker told investors that Woodford’s closed-end fund, which listed in London today, has entered into a legally binding commitment to subscribe for 23,125,000 shares at 16p apiece.
This gives Woodford’s vehicle a 17.2% in Sphere, which makes monitoring and diagnostic devices for critically ill hospital patients.
Woodford’s Patient Capital Trust invests in early stage quoted and unquoted companies in the UK and US, which will be accompanied with positions in blue chips for access to dividends.
Speaking to Proactive last week, Wolfgang Rencken, Sphere’s chief executive, described Woodford’s investment as a “terrific endorsement of Sphere’s business”.
“It’s a signal to the market that we are a long-term investment opportunity,” he added.
Sphere shares added 0.4p to 19.9p in afternoon deals.'
Sphere is quoted on the London Stock Exchange's AIM market.
Now, it's just possible that Tranche 2 of Woody's investment which finalises this week or next week, will come, perhaps partly, from his Patient Capital Fund rather than his Equity Income Fund.
If this proves to be the case, there will be considerable comment in the UK financial world about NWBO, which has to date remained under the radar, and lead to a big hike in its profile.
The sentiment would be:- If Woodford is invested in NWBO, then it must be interesting and worth looking at'
Quite a potential catalyst...
Flipper,
I don't see the discrepancy. £800m or$1200m. That's about right at today's exchange rate??
RK,
I don't see a lot wrong with Happy Librarians post that you refer to. Challenging but not personally offensive.
Board members have the right to debate and to challenge opinion stated as fact, and to do it robustly on occasions.
Plenty of other remarks more offensive or demeaning have gone by without comment.
Yes, PPS is just marking time. A few of the weak hearts might bail out, but I suggest keeping the faith.
No adverse events, positive catalysts on their way, albeit slowly!
Hunch we will get some news first week of May.
Woody's second stage investment goes through last week in April.
This is from investment blog, the Astute Investor from May 2014
'A Profile of Neil Woodford
Neil Woodford is one of Britain’s most successful and well-known fund managers. As former ‘head of equities’ at Invesco Perpetual he ran the ‘Invesco perpetual income’ and ‘Invesco perpetual High Income’ fund, collectively managing over £25bn in assets.
Performance
His long-term track record is nothing short of outstanding. Had you invested £10,000 in ‘Invesco Perpetual High Income’ fund at launch (in 1988), it will have grown to £250,000 today (total return).
For those choosing to receive dividends, they will have collected £38,943 in income, while their capital will have appreciated to £88,150.
This is an averaged annualised return of 13.2%.'
Investment Approach
Neil Woodfords approach is succinctly summed up by Mark Dampier, Head of Research at Hargreaves Lansdown:
“I have known and invested with Neil Woodford for over 20 years. He has remained consistent and true to his long-term investment philosophy, refusing to follow the herd and investing in unwanted, unfashionable and unloved sectors and companies. I believe him to be the finest fund manager of his generation and look forward to investing in his new fund at launch.”
Woodford typically holds shares for more than 10 years, he is the antithesis of short-term city culture.
For example in the 1960’s the typical investor through the London Stock Exchange held shares for eight years, today it is seven months.
CF Woodford Equity Income
Neil left Invesco perpetual in April to set up his own investment management business – Woodford Investment Management LLP
He subsequently launched a new equity income fund ‘CF Woodford Equity Income’, it became available to the public on June 19.
The fund will aim to generate an income of 10% higher than the dividend yield of the FTSE All-Share Index*.
It is predicted to yield 4.0% at launch, with income distributions paid quarterly and may invest up to 20% in international companies.
His aim – To deliver an attractive long-term return and growing income stream.
Patient Long-term capital
Neil Woodford also expressed an interest in early-stage science based businesses and highlighted Britain’s poor track record at turning great ideas into long-term commercial success. Neil believes the scarcity of capital and short-termism has created an compelling investment opportunity, he will devote between 5-7% of his fund to this area.
Woodford Patient Capital Trust plc
Elsewhere, Woodford has also announced his intention to launch the ‘Woodford Patient Capital Trust plc’, an investment vehicle which would give him the opportunity to build a greater exposure to early-stage and early-growth companies. He’s looking to raise £200m at launch.
The portfolio will represent a mix of their highest conviction blue-chip ideas together with exposure to early-stage and early-growth businesses. The fund will use an innovative fee structure, it won’t charge a management fee but will instead receive a fee based on performance.
Aim: Their aim is to deliver a return in excess of 10 per cent per annum over the longer term.'
Rather gives the lie to the suggestions put about on here regarding his trading strategy.
A true long
Big thanks to Flipper, Senti, and others for making the effort to cogently challenge the distortions and misrepresentations that have been advanced here today.
Lord Woodfords new Patient Capital Trust officially oversubscribed. Originally had a capital raise target of £200m,subsequently upped to £800m.
Oversubscribed slightly even at £800m.
Biggest ever raise by a UK Investment Trust.
The veteran heavyweight now has over £6 billion at his disposal.
Always looking for opportunities to support young companies such as NWBO.
Happy to support such companies through several funding rounds and right through to successful commercialisation and profitability.
There are those that were good at distorting the science and spreading FUDO ('O' for obfuscation). Why the constant doubting of Direct? Because of its massive potential, that's why. SAE scaremongering was just not on, and I think the price is being paid for doing that.
Interesting read, though frankly, he could have distilled all of that from this board.
I think he might be wrong about Patient Capital picking up part 2 of the Woodford financing at the end of April. Not that it makes a material difference to NWBO. From what he has said, that fund will largely be populated by UK blue chips initially, presumably to calm the nerves of early investors.
On the other hand, there may be a technical reason why he might want to split his investment between the two funds.
Welcome back Linda!
Trying to understand others inner world is just an extension of traditional due diligence. Nowt wrong with that.
Yes, probably.
Thinking about it, I reckon they might be able to justify a higher price, than the intended commercial price for a one-off provision, because of the cost of making specific individual arrangements.
It would at least provide an income stream, and an additional data stream. Perhaps it could only be available to patients who could self-fund.
Good word obfuscation by the way. It came to mind in the necrosis/apoptosis/pyroptosis discussions!
Expanded Access Programme.
Hmmm. I can now see why NWBO may be reluctant to engage in providing treatment on a single case basis under the FDA's Expanded Access Programme.
From Wikipaedia entry on EAP:-
'Paying for the drug. While the FDA allows drug companies to recover the costs of providing a treatment through an EAP, many companies may hesitate to do so because it requires disclosing the cost of their drug, which is often a closely guarded secret. In addition, many insurance companies won't cover the costs of experimental treatment so access could be limited to patients with the means to pay for it.'
Why, thankyou.
I suppose I was thinking about someone reportedly under the weather, and an absentee.
Re. the absentee; I'm probably way off beam, but I did e-mail the company about what I considered irresponsible and unfair remarks being aired here, and stated here that I had done so. Probably completely unrelated....
Unexpressed thoughts or just no thoughts?!
Two hours after an AF bash is usually a good time....
I've no reason to think he will get frustrated. He talks of his investments typically being for '3-5 years sometimes longer'
His whole ethos is 'long'
Hence the title of his new fund Patient Capital.
He believes in fundamentals and intrinsic value and that is what he sees in NWBO.
I do believe sometimes he is an 'active investor' not in the sense of trading in and out, but more in the sense of mutual consultation and support. He might be keeping an eye on Sawston for example.
Why would he get frustrated with Linda?
His investment is looking very sound presently.
Definitely worth doing a free sign up to his website, so you can read his blog and monthly reports. Certainly helps give me a sense of the man.
As of today, anything under 10.00 is cheap. We ran into the 8.40s a few weeks back, before Woody funding was announced and before other bullish articles such as Smith on Stocks. Woodford funding alone adds 30-40% to value in my opinion. And you just know that he will extend his investment further, as and when required. The shorts can no longer keeps cycling the price down. Today's PPS shows a solid rise on low volume, because nobody is selling.
I think this gradual upward trend will continue on no news and any other catalyst such as German pricing or UK Pims will just provide a further boost. In terms of comparative values compared to the overpriced bio's, we are still amazingly cheap.
Mainstream media coverage is really beginning to take off. NWBO didn't have a public profile until very recently. That is all about to change.
Ultimately, the science will make or break, but I have faith, in the way that Linda and Woody obviously do, and that is enough for me.
Yes, I think that is worth a small:-
Go NWBO!!
It's odds on to be a hung parliament in the UK after the election. Some sort of coalition will be cobbled together, with the party with the largest vote share likely to pal up with a minority party.
All state a top commitment to the National Health Service, with Labour being the Party most likely to increase overall NHS spending.
Then again the EAMS/PIMS scheme is a sort of glamorous, shop-window type project, and it wouldn't totally surprise me if a pre-election announcement was made about another PIM's approval, before the election with the Tories hoping that it will give themselves a bit of the caring, compassionate image. I can't see any party ditching the scheme.
It will become extremely cost effective if it renders chemotherapy and extended hospital stays unnecessary.
OK that's very hopeful, but so am I!
I expect cutthroat price negotiations are going on right now in UK and Germany.
NWBO will be wanting to establish a favourable pricing point, because it will set a precedence for all future pricing. UK govt.has a special cancer drugs fund, but at the same time is looking for value for money, balancing clinical benefit and price.No wonder it's taking time. I wonder what the Keytruda price point was agreed at, before it was granted 2nd stage PIMs.
Expect announcements in 2015 Q2 (or maybe Q3!)
Yes Papa,
I imagine NWBO must be aware of the Expanded Access programme. I wonder if they are geared up to respond to it, as it would entail urgent requests coming in from anywhere in the States. But well worth it. Level of public awareness would grow rapidly and things would inevitably snowball.
I note that taking up the Expanded Access programme, may mean that Accelerated Approval is less likely to be granted. Not necessarily a down side.
Take recent poster Olive78 for example. As I read it, her very ill friend could approach his or her physician and request treatment with DCVax direct under the scheme and it would only require the completion of a 45 min. application, to set things in motion.
Definitely worth a shareholder enquiry to the Company to see what the state of play is on this.
Well, that level of funding is readily available when required, I would suggest.
I think that NWBO's two near-death experiences, as quoted by Linda, (aftermath of 9/11 in 2001 and the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008) are now way, way, behind us.
Things looking good.
Further on veteran heavyweight Woody.
His latest blog details how his new fund Patient Capital is already oversubscribed before the closure date. The initial capital raise target was £200 million, but the blog predicts that the issue is likely to raise between £500 and £800 million. I think it will probably be at least £800 million.
The prospectus for the new fund states that a maximum of 30% will be invested in non-UK holdings, and that the maximum initial investment in any one holding will be 10%, and could be raised subsequently to 15%.
He has previously stated that , initially, he will largely populate the fund with UK blue chips, and then gradually shape the fund over a year or eighteen months to his preferred profile. Wise move, so as to avoid small stock volatility in the early days.
If the issue raises £800 million, he could therefore invest up to £240 million in non-UK holdings. And he could invest up to an initial £80 million in any individual holding.
My guess is that he may not invest in NWBO at the outset, or maybe a modest investment of perhaps 1% of fund size (£8 million?)
I'm pretty sure that NWBO will figure sooner or later in the new fund and likely become a star performer for him. I don't know the American rules regarding maximum permitted holdings in a company, because as we know, he already holds, what is it 20% of NWBO?
I'm sure a brief blog quote is OK:-
'We have an attractive pipeline of investments in the wings for Woodford Patient Capital Trust and we are relishing the greater flexibility that this level of interest affords - giving us the opportunity to work closely with early-stage businesses and helping more of them achieve commercial success'
Smart chap and a 'long' by nature.
Milou, I inadvertently repeated some of your posting, but I think potential percentages are interesting.
Thankyou for the last post. Expanded Access sounds like just the ticket. There must be thousands of existing cancer sufferers, who cannot for whatever reason immediately access an NWBO clinical trial, have exhausted existing SOC, and remain seriously ill.
If this scheme is already up and running, then presumably sick patients in tandem with NWBO could apply for treatment under Expanded Access right now. And presumably, this would be on a chargeable basis.
Very encouraging for NWBO and for patients.
Expecting confirmation of excellent Safety Profile.
Flipper, I didn't express myself at all well in my prior post. I am firmly in the camp of believing that Direct will be proved fundamentally safe as the data matures, and any adverse events will be minimal in relation to any competing therapies and in relation to therapeutic benefit.
It's the alarmist posts that are unjustified and to my mind irresponsible.
I believe that the news in the abstract re. safety (i.e. all 3 dose levels were tolerated, there were no dose-limiting toxicities ) is overwhelmingly positive. I am happy enough that this demonstrates fundamental safety way better than competitors such as Keytruda.
I see no mention of events such as sepsis, except on this board. Straightforward scaremongering.
Indeed I look forward to the time when DCVax is first line SOC for many cancers, instead of last ditch life preserver for patients who have already
had immune systems compromised by chemotherapy
I see that Dr. Bosch is presenting at AACR on 20th April and is due to provide updates on Direct Phase 1/2 programme.
Hopefully, we will get further details on the nature of the 2 apparent adverse events, which slightly cloud an otherwise very good safety profile as described in the abstract.
Thankyou for that. Would you agree, though, that on the face of it a report should have been sent even if it did not lead to any amendments to the trial.
It's a key point for me, this question about the cause of the reported 2 cases of Grade 3/4 SAE's.
Going back to the vexed issue of Grade 3/4 SAE's. If it was the case that there were two such incidents in the Phase 1 Direct trial as has been reported, and the investigators believed that Direct vaccine was the cause, they would come under a requirement to report this immediately to the FDA, I believe. And the FDA would presumably make further investigation about the advisability of continuing the trial.
If on the other hand, it was believed that a previous or concurrent drug treatment was responsible then there would be no such requirement. Would I be right in this assumption?
I guess Conference will enlighten us.
Jim,
Feedback appreciated,
Thanks
Well Pyrr,
Seeing as this will be covered in detail at Conference, then we will know.