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ncnc:
Sometimes the harder question is not in or out, but how much in?
sam
HYRF:
I took a small position. It has signs of growth even without the latest deal. With current market cap, I would not be shocked to see a big return.
sam
Snow,
My guess agrees with yours. This company price deserves a very severe discount if the latest earnings estimates are in a different ballpark from actual.
I think people have been trying to connect the dots and they don't line up too good.
This maybe deserves eventually current price or higher, but so far my best guess is a classic case of overpromising and underdelivering.
sam
Yes potential for good news drivers for vphm - sam
My new VPHM calc:
IRC mentioned before I believe 24 cents for future quarters.
If he would have been on target, I suggest with same unit sales this price increase means about 35% increase to bottom-line as a rough guess.
Call $1.30 annual net income. Cheap pe should be 25 in my opinion. $32.50 still an easy double.
sam
canroy "advantage" avn_u.to has excellent yield
Ameritrade fine eom
Smith,
Why do you say there are no numbers to review? Let us start with numbers on July number of autos sold.
That figure looks low compared to expectations and we know June was less.
sam
Twoggle I admire your objectivity but a comment here.
"Finally, whether I own the stock or not, I am
happy for a company that is expanding sales and
doing everything it can to become success and a
$100 million company as is their goal."
'Doing everything it can to become a success' could describe many failed honest enterprises.
sam
Start from scratch. There are a lot of bashers who don't appear to be consistently objective. Put that aside.
There is a disappointing and unexplained sharecount history. 2nd quarter looks bad based on prs and the company does not talk directly about.
July trend only 1 month looks great as a trend but disappointing compared to 300-500 count.
Estimates look in jeopardy.
So far I believe the company has over-promised and under-delivered.
Otherwise maybe these guys are good businessmen. I would like to know what longs currently see that is good other than current estimates.
To say that one trusts management more than posters with questionable motives is okay by me, but still I can not see anything stated in the prs that looks good at this moment.
I don't wish to jump ship if the ship is sound.
Mnfats latest post is worth analysis.
sam
Twoggle,
What is your expectations, predictions?
sam
Watchdog,
I already saw in the prs indications 2nd quarter was less than rosy.
To reach their estimates the pr once again shows growth in sales is needed.
Without growth in sales, they still claimed 1st quarter 3 cents when there was 16 million shares or less.
If actual 1st quarter numbers are accurate and the growth after July does not happen, then a case could be argued for 5 cents earnings for 2005 or 15 cents under new structure.
So nwau at 50cents-$1.00 in that scenario versus if current forecasts hold end of 2006 nwau $6 - $12+ or under new structure would be $20 - $40.
sam
What was the expected auto sales before? My memory was 300-500, but I reviewed old press releases and did not spot.
sam
I nominate Twoggle among most useful posters on this board as he refuted the claims that nowauto can't possibly with simple facts...
sam
Public costs,
For a minimum a public company would need to have the same expenses as a private company plus what it takes to meet public needs.
If this company was private and acquired Sunburst one could assume it could cost no different than the public case.
If a private company could acquire Sunburst and make a profit by doing so, then a public company could too. The additional cost per year for public maybe $50K as it means more paperwork for the new location.
It all comes back to revenue. If there is $30 million revenue, then public costs can be absorbed.
sam
Watchdog,
I don't know how accurate your fee estimation is, maybe 100%. I would think though that most of the cost should be for public accounting, everything else could be kept minimal I would think.
Why would accounting fees with a little lawyer time kicked in go above $250K for a micro company?
True enough even $250K is a lot of money in terms of profit, if it was impossible for nowauto to achieve its numbers why would relatively smart people have bought this company?
You still haven't explained that to me.
sam
Watchdog,
I challenge you to explain how that came close to objective. Best-case breakeven. Why would many thousand of used-car lots exist if best case was breakeven?
sam
Still interesting risk/reward,
In my opinion plenty of reason to distrust management since a large jump in shares.
If these are con men pure and simple, it will go down but if they are quasi honest, it is correct that $20 in less than 18 months is possible except that $20 figure is on the premise of
$20/ approx 3 or $6 plus.
Quadruple best case.
Assuming 50 cents on NWAU price on exit for worst case.
sam
Rainman incorrect on VPHM:
IRC lead guy on vphm board expected 13 cents for 2nd quarter, but the 15% tax threw it off.
sam
Subtract tax 15% off that $7 million windfall also
sam
my calculation vphm:
Assuming irc is right about taxes such that 11 cents is accurate for 2nd quarter.
Add 7 million going away in expense for stock conversion.
7 million / 57 million 12.3 cents extra per quarter adjust due to less interest in future, I am saying for simple calc 13 cents
this assumes flat revenue for 3rd,4th vs. 2nd
11 cents + 13 cents = 24 cents
Take it from there number crunchers.
sam
Subtract 15% vphm taxes
subtract 15% from target?
Thanks Watchdog,
I hope you are wrong about this company. I hope most that you are wrong about they are simply smart pr people.
The facts right now on this deal look too ugly for smart pr people.
I still have a position based again mostly on if the estimates are in the ballpark, it would be underpriced.
sam
Question for watchdog,
Watchdog you were first to say the deal was going to be horrible I believe.
You were right as far as anybody can tell.
My question is if this company on the surface is paying a lot more than what is justified, what do you believe is the final outcome?
If sec was to disallow deal, how does that profit anybody?
If the SEC allows the deal which I assume it already has and if the company does not meet latest guidance as well, will management be sued, will management end up happy?
sam
Keep in mind that even if this was a spectacular deal, why did not previous o/s shares get mentioned, equivalent current shares, instead of leaving things unclear.
Too many pinksheet companies don't keep communication open and detailed.
Also why not a convincing explanation as to why shareholders should like the deal?
If there is good stuff happening that needs to be secret, I suppose they could say that.
I still have a position, but sure a lot of hoping.
sam
Thanks research eom
If you read ragingbull board, somebody seems positive there this is being shorted.
The float figures as presented in brokerage breakdown are false. How much off I don't know. I would be interested in knowing why float count is not accurate.
If there are 27 million shares outstanding, I think company should pr the fact as people fear there are more. Company should pr the info in any case whether less or more than 27 m.
Also in my opinion, lots of people like to bash in this situation to further compound the fear and selling that comes with the fear of a pinkie falling in price.
You can ride a stock down and lose lots of money so fear is not inappropriate but no guts no glory as well.
Other than lots of selling, I don't see anything that looks terribly suspicious at this point.
sam
Researcher aspn:
I am still confused, bottom line including taxes
what is the right way to look at earnings/qtr?
Why high taxes one quarter and low the next?
sam
Aspen quarter,
"net after tax profit of $702,500 compared to $77,000 a year earlier, an increase of 812%. Aspen reported earnings of $0.11 per diluted share, compared with earnings of $0.01 per diluted share for the prior year three month period."
$702,500 net after tax.
6.72M shares
11 cents after tax it appears to me
Aspen,
Why if supposed to be taxed, why wasn't it shown as 7 cents?
sam
As long as any stock is on the pinksheets, it can be incredibly underpriced just for being there.
You can't judge the company by the price.
I do believe the one proven negative about the company is it should try to support the price with press releases on occasion but in pinky land there is no guarantee a press release will help.
The most objective completely measurable good news is in my opinion is everytime I look at volume it supports the idea of a very small float.
sam
Keep it simple and accurate.
There is no credible argument that this deal was good. I am assuming the claim of $1 Million price tag as reasonable value sticks until somebody can show otherwise.
Also it is bad news that there were more than 16 million shares of nowauto from my reading of the release.
The company has not met any signficant promises that I am aware of other than acquiring Sunburst. This current deal being done I don't count as an accomplishment.
The other side of the equation is I think the car lots are better businesses than the bashers claim, but I don't know it for a fact.
I don't think Scott could go to jail if he is not giving honest estimates, sad to say.
Taking all the facts as now known, I think a price range of $1.00 to $1.70 is reasonable.
sam
thanks bob eom
Bobwins TGA,
Is there any sudden price at which you would sell all or vast majority of TGA?
What if by end of year it was $20, what would you do?
sam
igtn:
I learned about this one at noon today, took a small position at .0061
sam
GFCI sharecount,
If the company reveals to the public by any means an o/s sharecount that was later to be proven false for the sharecount at that point in time and it is proven, I believe that is the sort of case that could be criminally prosecuted.
Any disagreement?
sam
ASPEN: Rainman I can top what you say. Often when production doubles, earnings could triple. Triple of last qtr = 33 cents.
Made my first sell a little less than 25% of this morning. Can't really think of anything to objectively regret.
sam
gfci::Note the latest post on raging bull.
sam
Note the latest ragingbull post.
sam
Arbpro,
You and dog and others I question what you bring up.
How would it benefit NWAU to get their plans rejected as you suggest? Explain that. That would not be a smart scam unless the rejection can be past end of September.
They have an out for a better way to scam I think.
They could have provided audited for quarter 1. Said it was meaningless because it was prior to acquisition of Sunburst.
Quarter 2 would not need to be reported I assume until end of September. Therefore to be a good scam this rejection coming by SEC must be later than Sep 30 I should think.
Another issue is everybody talked about 16 million shares, now it got bumped up with recent press releases so it does not appear to run a proper scam that they kept a proper lid on the share increase.
Comments?
sam