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Au contraire, Lamberth loss for the govt is inconsequential. It's a throwaway case at worse case scenario.
If plaintiffs win, it's FnF that has to fork out the damages. Govt doesn't need to put up a single penny.
Aside from that, nothing else happens.
Lamberth's trial does nothing for the commons... only FMCC stands to gain ~11 cents/share if plaintiffs win but you also have to subtract attorney fees so essentially... a nickel per share for the win.
You're correct in that you shouldn't bother following this.
I think you got on the wrong boat.
Been telling you guys for the last 2 weeks that JPS is going to keep going up... hopefully you guys bought some.
It's time to start the countdown to Lamberth.
Been telling this board since last week that JPS would double to $3+ by Lamberth but people here just don't like making money.
Been telling all you goobers since last week that JPS are going to reach $3+ per share leading up to Lamberth retrial.
But y'all just don't like making money.
I like to tell the story of Seadrill (NYSE:SDRL) an ultra deep underwater drilling company for oil/gas.
They bankrupted 3x over the span of 8 years. Each bankruptcy resulted in restructuring where legacy commons got diluted 96%+
Therefore if you were a legacy common holder, you got diluted 96% after the first restructuring.
Then your diluted shares along with the new 96% investors BOTH get diluted again another 96%.
Then during the third restructuring the legacy commons + 96% investors + new 96% investors got diluted a THIRD time by another 96% again.
New money came in. Every. Single. Time.
The old adage holds true... The money is always there but the pockets change.
That sounds amazing, you should go all in since that is over 100x return.
Commons should really be diluted immediately so that they can be put out of their misery. All these goobers on this board needs to move on with their life.
Commons are going to get diluted down to less than a nickel per share once recap release happens.
Do you know the percentage for the lawyers cut if we do win Lamberth? I presume they take their share before passing the rest to us.
FMCKJ up 18.79%
Price target $3+ before Lamberth retrial.
Jared needs more money to fund his affordable housing goals. He's going to take his share from the commons.
Hopefully I don't have to repeat myself like 100x over the next 4 weeks leading up to Lamberth.
JPS going to double to around $3 per share. All the legacy commons... this is your chance to actually make some money.
The fact that Lamberth is alive and going to retrial is proof that FHFA can't do everything that it likes.
Contract claims prevent that. Sell your commons already and join the JPS upside. It's going to double in the next 4 weeks leading up to Lamberth.
JPS going to double in the next 4 weeks back to around the $3 range. Commons can sit on the side lines and watch it drop down to $0.39
JPS to the MOON. Commons to the BASEMENT with no windows.
It's a poker game and what they say is lip service for being politically correct.
No one is revealing their hands.
Should pitch it to Britney, she should be sympathetic enough and can also be the face of the campaign.
Commons are going to sink... Sell out now while you still can...
Sounds like you should sell your house and use it to go all in on commons.
The US Govt is screwing themselves?
Let's put YOU in the govt's shoes.
What you have: (2) options
Option A: Exercise warrants to obtain 79.9% of the commons.
Option B: Convert your seniors to commons and dilute your warrants BUT you obtain 99.99% of the commons at the end of the day.
Would you take the lesser option A?
Go BIG or go home. Why don't you triple down?
They just assume heh.
I'm actually more eager to see the complete destruction of commons rather than what happens to the JPS.
The sooner it happens, the sooner they'll be able to move on with their lives instead of haunting this board like a vengeful ghost filled with insatiable regret.
Commons going to zero soon. If you want to do well with commons, buy JPS now and get converted to commons after recap/release.
The tune has changed since March and that was a BIG development that no one seems to believe...
Good luck convincing the whole of congress to approve that. The debt ceiling agreement has already been reached.
Refunding 301B will singlehandedly decimate the agreed upon debt ceiling. Pitch forks will come for all of FnF if that were to happen.
Through the grapevine... I hear that the bulge brackets have been ITCHING for an IPO. Yes, that's coming from one of the "advisors" to FnF.
Update on this board? All read posts don't turn from blue to purple anymore. Only the first one that you clicked turns purple. That makes it difficult to remember where you left off...
His past experience with GCP is what keeps him tethered to the commons. That trade happened to turn out good for him even though he was on the "other side" of the trade.
This scenario is a totally different beast but he doesn't see it...
Here's a quote from him:
"But I expect — and actually why is that relevant? It’s relevant because one of the remaining risks for common stockholders is dilution from an IPO. And one of the — part of the bear thesis is that the stock’s going to get issued at something approximating the current share price. And therefore, there’ll be massive dilution.
What’s interesting about that is it’s incredibly reminiscent of the commentary around if you go back and look, call it 10 or 11 years ago, circa 2010 — actually nine years ago, when general growth was making its way through the bankruptcy process, which reminds me very much of the conservatorship process and the bear case. And someone actually shorted the stock and put out a public presentation.
We had fun defending the company in that circumstance. But the bare case was the company was going to do a massive equity issuance at a very low share price. And the point we made is that as we made then and that applies here is that, as each of these sort of hurdles are addressed and achieved, so for example, the capital rule was finalized, we expect the stock prices to move significantly up on that development.
More materially, the preferred stock purchase agreements, when that gets resolved, we expect the stock prices of both companies to go up significantly. When — we have an expected date for an IPO. At a certain point in time, the government will be in the best interest. I would say we’re getting very close to that time now.
The government owns warrants on both companies. And in order — the other development which we did not mention is that the government has an RFP out for a financial adviser with a target date of hiring them sometime in the relative short term mid-November I think.
Anthony Massaro
Yes, by the end of November.
William Ackman
End of November. So you’re going to have an investment bank and adviser, whose objective is to raise the required — help the government raise the required capital that’s I think the first priority but also to do it in a way that’s least dilutive to the government that owns 79.9% of both of these companies.
So you now have the government working alongside a financial adviser that has an obligation on behalf of their clients to maximize the outcome and then what we expect to be a series of positive developments as each of these hurdles get chipped away. And so what’s fascinating is about the company, both companies is the higher the stock prices go the more the businesses are worth.
What I mean by that is, since there’s a large equity offering that will get done here and we don’t — $100 billion is not the number but something in the order of we think $25 billion, $30 million, $35 billion IPO. It’s still potentially quite dilutive that as the stock prices go up, the amount of the company that remains owned by the current shareholders increases, which again makes the company more valuable, which increases the profitability of the stock going up. And you get into this sort of upward virtuous cycle. And it’s worthwhile to take a look at the experience we have with general growth, which had a very analogous situation where there was a large equity backstop that got funded once the companies emerged from Chapter 11.
So the emergence from conservatorship will be yet another catalyst. And a listing ultimately on New York Stock Exchange or a major exchange, I think will allow the securities to be owned by a much broader array of investors.
The last point I would make is what’s interesting in the last period is that the preferred stock has been actually somewhat weak. And I think what’s going on is many of the investors that own preferred are now finally realizing that the common stock is if you will the fulcrum security.
So many distressed investors always lean toward owning kind of senior securities, I think have begun recognized that the upside here all the residual benefit will inure to the benefit of the common stockholders. And we believe that some of the very large holders of preferred have now been buying common and may even be selling off some of their preferred stock in order to acquire the common, which we think offers a more attractive risk-reward and better outcome in almost every circumstance."