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So you think if there is a BO on the table, whatever happens with the Supreme Court will not delay it?
Unfortunately the Supreme Court's decision to get a response from Hikma likely delayed things. That response is due April 29th then we have to wait for the Court to schedule a conference to discuss the case and decide on cert.
So the waiting continues.
I don't see how you sell the Company before hearing from the Supreme Court.
The Supreme Court is last major hurdle. Once clarity on that I imagine a lot would be known.
No need to hold up a deal for GSK v. Teva because it's unknown when a decision will come out and you have to balance rollout in Europe. A BP would want to handle that itself. Time is of essence.
Mark April 19th on your calendars we will know that Monday the SC's decision.
Welp with approval in Europe, the BO window is open.....clock is ticking to maximize value......
Another uncertainty has been removed. I imagine nothing until we hear back from Supreme Court on 4/19
What will Amarin do.....
Saw your stocktwits. You think $17 plus CVR? Seems awfully low and a steal for any BP.....
Supreme Court & Seth Waxman
Seth Waxman - about 26 percent of his petitions have been granted to the Supreme Court historically.
The Justices know him very well. It matters which lawyer is on the petition.
http://blogs.reuters.com/alison-frankel/2016/01/22/want-to-get-your-case-to-the-supreme-court-new-study-tells-you-which-lawyers-to-hire/
Great points!
It is eerily quiet on Amarin's end.
So much FUD and misinformation being posted.
Great job Marjac and team. I hope Judge Du reads it.
Right no BP would be interested in a drug that could bring in billions for at least 10 years with regulatory exclusivity in Europe.......
Now that's funny.
Thanks for sharing this intel from Amarin's director. So basically as other posters have suspected....GIA is just a ruse and this baby is for sale.
If you're a BP you don't want Amarin negotiating prices in Europe or having anything to do with the rollout there......so with approval coming....the calendar / window is closing....
The calendar is our friend.....will force a decision here soon.
Got it, thanks. The sooner the better. And just think last Jan most here would have scoffed at anything less than $40 a share. What a difference a year makes.
Does that $22 - $34 include the CVR or he thinks $22 to $34 and in addition a CVR?
Seth Waxman--the lawyer who wrote Amarin's brief to the Supreme Court.
Read this interview:
https://www.ipwatchdog.com/2012/11/15/exclusive-with-seth-waxman-supreme-court-patent-superstar/id=29980/
He at least will get their attention.
I hope he proves himself to be a great poker player for us all.
Fingers crossed.
Got it, thanks. If the Supreme Court grants cert.....buckle your seat-belts....that would be beyond huge.
Come to think of it: given the age of the Justices....some of them may be taking Vascepa so they may be well aware of the drug.
@LBL.....do you think Buffett knows about AMRN?
I commented a few weeks ago market risk was a concern for us....
others told me interest rates are low....the market will not correct. LOL
oh well this is AMRN. now we have market correction to perhaps deal with.
Can the EMA respond faster than 67 days? We need a surprise / news here to stem the downdraft in share price.
Something unexpected.
Larrybirdlegend -- I don't think this is his twitter handle. But let's wait for him to opine.
Great post!
Let’s hope this happens sooner and not later especially if a market correction is on the horizon.
Got it, thanks! I surely hope Vascepa shows efficacy against COVID then.
Let’s say Vascepa is effective against COVID. Do you really think the government and media will give Vascepa airtime? Vaccines are being pushed.
Amarin does not have leverage to get the story out there.
Does Biden’s corona virus taskforce even know about Vascepa?
I doubt it.
But will Wall Street care? Exhibit A: our stock price. Great science/drug......story is not carrying through getting out.
Got it, thanks!
MITIGATE Trial question
Did the study leaders indicate there would be an interim readout?
I noticed that the trial is still recruiting according to clinical gov site.
https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04505098
What would really be ironic is if through this process Amarin got more direct evidence that Hikma was trying to procure supply for more than than the very high TG market or greater than the MARINE indication.
What's the interest in procuring supply for more than the MARINE indication......
A lot can be discovered / used.
Understood. Thanks so much!
What June strike are you targeting for the calls?
Great point!
Great recap. What everyone seems to gloss over is that it’s the threat of loss that just became more real for Hikma. Put aside whether Amarin will prevail at trial, the question is can Hikma survive such loss. Hikma is not Teva. Teva can afford to pay significant damages...Hikma cannot. Look at their market cap. This has become very asymetric with significant downside for Hikma.
Amarin just has to survive summary judgment and get to trial....I think today’s hearing makes that path to trial a lot easier. Our case will be in front of a jury this time. If Hikma rolls the dice and decides to see this thing thru trial and they lose...the damages could be very difficult for them to bare.
The threat of loss has me most excited. Yesterday’s hearing was very favorable for Amarin.
Hatch Waxman never said it was legal to infringe on a patent. Of course we all know that was being done but fortunately for Amarin this case brought it to light.
I am extremely pleased with how the hearing went.
If you're relying on the media, good luck. LOL
Do your own due diligence. Listen to the hearing.
I would suggest you listen to the hearing and not rely on a journalist's rehash of what occurred. I read this Bloomberg article don't full it truly captured the hearing.
Just my two cents.
Sorry I am not sure of the timeline for Amarin's case.
What makes you think this case was not already discussed amongst the other judges on the CAFC...?
Hey Newman & Moore rewrite the opinion so it does not strike down Hatch-Waxman.....meaning this was an inadequate carve out.
Moreover, this was a jury trial where the district court took the decision away from the jury.
Judicial resources / economy are paramount.
Plenty of amicus briefs were submitted and it resulted in a re-hearing.
My guess is Newman and Moore rewrite the opinion so it does not implicate Hatch Waxman and the judges decide no en banc is warranted.
I still believe today was a great day for Amarin's lawsuit.
JMO
Not sure.
It's the read through / implications of this case that has the most bearing / importance.
Hikma needed this case to go to en banc or to go away....meaning a reversal and win for Teva.
Everyone and their momma weighed in with an amicus brief. Despite all the amici there was no en banc hearing and Moore & Newman based on today's hearing do not seem to be persuaded. Meaning they will rewrite their opininon but still favor GSK.
Amarin can use this case as a precedent to survive summary judgment...meaning Amarin's case will likely be going to trial. That is just bad news for Hikma because the damages could be significant. Remember it's the potential of damages that can totally wipe you out.Hikma now selling in the market may be literally selling for Amarin plus damages.
Hikma did not take out the CVT indication limitation in its label and we have facts that Healthnet is still infringing via formulary. All bad facts.......damages.
GSK's lawyer is great.....they call her the judge whisperer. It was evident today why she gets that moniker.
Any acquiring BP has to come away from today after listening to the hearing and feeling good about Amarin's preservation of the USA market. I can tell you TEva is going to want nothing to do with infrining on USA market for Vascepa / CV. And if you think other generics will now want to test the ice to see if it's frozen before crossing the river......ok. lol
JMO
That's funny. GSK's attorney is "our" attorney too. They work for the same firm in the same office and on the same team.