Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Are there any particular catalysts you're looking for to get back in, or is it more just monitoring the situation on the ground?
I find it interesting, though not terribly meaningful given which party controls administrative recap/release, that the CBO report on recapping FnF from August 2020 was requested by Patrick McHenry, who now is the chair of the House Financial Services Committee. I believe he has the power to call Sandra Thompson, and perhaps even Janet Yellen, to appear before the Committee and testify as to why FnF remain in conservatorship. That would be some real must-see TV.
Robert you don't realize anything. You don't even understand what the fulcrum security is.
Hell no I'm not wasting my time joining you. I shot down your lawsuit by pointing you to the signature page of the NWS amended SPS.
But by all means, throw your time and money down the toilet. That's your right.
You've done the easy part, when are you filing suit?
**yawn** You are right Rob, they could easily be worth 1/2 a cent. Maybe even a whole penny. Just depends on the size of the gift. But as it stands, you are squarely out of the money.
You guys that think it's worth dollars, 10's of dollars, 100's of dollars....why aren't you betting the farm? Huh?
And i think you know this. And so i think you are being polite by entertaining the idea they might be surprised while knowing full well you are doing sign language for the blind
Fannie book of Business $4.1 trillion. Freddie $3.4 trillion. That's $8.5 trillion combined! Good times ahead.
I can tell you a couple that lost $200 billion between 2007 and 2012. Seems it's the same ones that your security still isn't in the money with. And no amount of crying will change the facts as they are now. Treasury still holds all the cards. Just because you weren't flushed down the toilet then doesn't mean you can't be flushed down the toilet 15 years later.
If Commons get anything, it will be a gift.
Have a great day.
He doesn't understand any of my nuanced messages because he doesn't have any experience either in the federal courts or the bankruptcy courts.
No one knows exactly what will happen or when it will happen. Some can make an educated guess....then there are others....who post emojis and demand pump messages.
Quick, someone call the police....they've owned shares for 14 years.
I've got a few but not enough to matter. Sittin on the sidelines
Got anything constructive to say or contribute?
Hi Freddie
I give opinions based (partly) on (decades of re-org) experience. If you perceive my reactions to other people taking shots as arrogance, I really don't care. I'm not here to pump sunshine.
5 to 6% of the final market cap (about $220 billion according to Tim Howard) would equate to less than $10 per JPS, well below par (mostly $25). Further, you write that the commons will receive a few cents (0.1%).
This contradicts what Kthomp19 has repeatedly written here. He wrote (quoting from memory): If the commons receive even one cent, the JPS will be paid out at par (i.e. $25) because of their seniority in the capital stack.
Who is wrong here?
No Robert, you ignore the 3-4 posters that actually have the intelligence to understand the reality of the situation.
What else you got?
Robert you seem a little upset. Whenever you're ready to provide your solution, I'm all ears. If you have JPS, maybe you ought to sell them.
You must be replying to someone else because you dang sure haven't heard me talk about an instant recap.
Are you upset? Truth hurt? Finally figure out commons are the last in line?
I think it's still years away....whatever it will be. And I did say I don't think anything will happen during President Potato's tenure.
You and KThomp have more patience than I do. I have to give it to you guys because you try to inform as best you can but when those listening either don't want to hear the truth or aren't versed in recapitalizations.....no amount of hand holding will matter.
If this stays out of receivership and exits in the next few years, my guess is juniors get about 5-6% and commons get about .1% of the released GSEs.
I'm an optimist.
For the 100x time, it wasn't optional because the conditions hadn't been met to make it optional. How many times do you have to be told to understand this? Kthomp has been nice enough to hand feed you time and time again...how many times will it take??
Shareholders are not a party to the SPS contract. You have no standing nor rights thereunder.
The holders of shares of the Senior Preferred Stock shall not have any right to convert such shares into or exchange such shares for any other class or series of stock or obligations of the Company.
Good point Rodney5
No Name how exactly will your cramdown work?
Does ST have the unilateral power to just say that the UST is entitled to 99.5% ownership?
How does Delaware and Virginia law apply? Wont there have to be a shareholder vote to approve the conversion?
Doesnt there have to be a fairness opinion rendered to determine if it is fair?
You have a lot of experience in this area so can you please explain all the steps and issues justifying your position?
Yeah, I feel you....I feel you're barking up the wrong tree....spit balling because everything else has failed.
What you keep overlooking is the distinction between a statutory action and a regulatory action that doesn't have any basis in a statute.
It's been the better part of a year since WV v EPA. Why hasn't another suit been filed to clawback the NWS payments?
None of those things disproves my central point that FnF are essentially already in bankruptcy. It happened in 2008. It's not the entry into bankruptcy that we should be concerned about, it's the restructuring required to exit.
Well, why don't you understand the NWS was already ruled as legal by the Supreme Court on statutory grounds? Thus, making your hail mary moot.
WV v EPA dealt with regulations concocted by the EPA, essentially making laws they were never given the power to do so by elected representatives.
does that one time signature complete the deficit you were responding to?
So KT, you've never tackled my "big idea" that the NWS violated the Major Questions Doctrine (a Seperation of Powers issue).
Buy high, sell low.....the advice of a boater....not a skateboarder
I am Sorry you don't know what I am talking about. In a nutshell I am saying that every Quarterly NWS violated The Charter Act. The Charter Act prohibits a capital distribution as defined by the 3rd amendment to the SPSPA unless prior written approval of the Director of FHFA is obtained.
Freddie Mac portfolio +5.3% to $3.42T in Dec. 2022,
Reversing the NWS will never happen. The Supreme Court made sure of that.
Also, I don't think you can seriously say that all legal avenues for shareholders have been exhausted.
Government would be wise to convert the snr pfds to common to own 99.9% of the new equity and monetize over ~$200b+ of value, not wise to leave $50b+ on the table so old legacy common shareholders can make money. Use some common sense.
No need for a link when you have decades of courtroom and actual experience. The last time you asked for a link you had to apologize. Go find yourself a transcript of any confirmation hearing or first day hearing of any Chapter 11 re-org. The language is always the same because that's what Chapter 11s are for.
May I suggest you go find a link that shows either the commons or junior preferreds are "in the money"?
Even though the GSEs have billions in their coffers, they still don't have enough for distributions via a re-org to junior shareholders.
Listened to Calabria calling "conservatorship" an "administrative bankruptcy" is misleading.
BK sets off alarms, but I suppose that his further comments, as he went of to explain c-ship is to rehabilitate and then decide to r-ship or release. He spoke of getting them out and the conditions.
So, if you listen to him, it is actually very positive. He was working on a large equity offering (he did not say IPO or SPO, just equity offering).
If the Biden administration wants to monetize Treasury's equity stake in FnF and actually spend that money, they don't have a lot of time. Do you think they might make some minor concessions to legacy shareholders so that those shareholders don't slow things down?
The warrants are worthless unless Treasury decides otherwise. They don't need the warrants, they have the ever-growing liquidation preference to convert with. I'm not surprised you ignored the elephant in the room.
The best way to become a GSE millionaire is to start with 2 million or more.