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Man, I don't think I've ever seen such outstanding results for a new CPU archictecture. Even Northwood wasn't as good as this. I've seen so many Core 2 Duo reviews now that there's no doubt in my mind that AMD's topline FX products are going to be relegated to mainstream price points and everthing else they have will fall below that. What bewilders me even more is the amount of denial coming from the droids. For all of you droids, please provide pointers to where you're getting your hope because I can't find any good news for AMD.
Snow
wbmw,
I agree. I predict Intel will earn between $8.2B and $8.3B in revenue with $5.65B to $5.72B coming from microprocessors. I think $5.2B is too low.
Snow
jhalada,
You might be close if you're only talking about micro processors. In Q1 microprocessors accounted for 69% of Intel's revenue. If you apply the same percentage towards the low end of Intel's revenue guidance you will get $5.5B in microprocessor revenue.
Snow
No. Intel gives revenue guidance and some of the variables required to determine Net Income. You (and Wall Street) have to make some assumptions and do the math on your own to estimate EPS. Go to www.intc.com and locate their Q1 earnings release. In the earnings release you will find their Q2 guidance with the revenue and the other variables I was talking about. Have fun!
Snow
highlandpk,
Percentages aside, if INTC wasn't with in their guidance then they would've warned by now. Since they haven't I'm expecting they will be announcing earnings with in their guidance of $8B to $8.6B.
Snow
Keith,
They're few benifits for investors that I see:
1. Clear out old inventory so Intel's doesn't have to write it off.
2. Make room for higher priced and higher performing new processors
3. Provide Intel with an opportunity to penetrate new markets in evolving economies (Africa, South America, etc.)
Snow
Doh, I think I need to go back to basic reading and math classes :)
Snow
Interesting. Did you notice RBC still has a price target of $23? Seems odd they would call INTC "dead money" yet they anticipate a $5 stock increase. Addtionally, I noticed this is the first time RBC has covered INTC since Aug 2004.
Snow
I'm in! 530 shares at $17.10. Will revisit in Q4. Hope to sell at around $22 or $23. I just couldn't resist even though it feels like a gamble. There just seems to be so much good news from INTC. I do expect the stock to drop possibly another $1 before Q2 earnings but Q3 and Q4 should be great.
Snow
I have my opinions on the Fundamentals but technicals
and liquidity trump fundamentals in my book.
What about psychology? It seems the market has a psychology of its own. Even when the fundamentals and technicals point in the same directs, the market psychology can cause un-anticipated impacts. I wish there were a discipline that researched this.
Snow
I can't argue with that. I'm expecting it to drop a little lower too. How much, I don't know.
Snow
Whoa... 1825 mhp but it weighs 5617 lbs. Now that would make any Vette a "low rider" :)
Snow
Still investing in AMD? I feel sorry for you, the last three months haven't been very good have they?
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=3m&s=INTC&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=amd
By the way, spare me the typical response. I know you'll simply pick a date range that favors AMD and make some stupid comment like you usually do, so spare us the BS and go away.
Snow
Tecate,
I'm cutting Ronster some slack, I don't think he realized that NGMA = Woodcrest/Conroe/Merom.
Snow
Chipguy,
Agree. Take a look at this blog article.
http://blogs.zdnet.com/Ou/?p=240&tag=nl.e622
If the blogger's Q&A's with AMD's management are true, I'd be a very worried AMD investor. Seems like AMD needs a healthy dose of paranoia and a little less ego.
Snow
Amazing bullshit. I like this one: Intel never really understood the complex nature of the microprocessor business.
Really? In the hands of Robert Noyce, Gordon Moore, and Andy Grove, Intel created the microprocessor business. What a delusional moron. He's probably one of the people that claim the Holocaust never happened.
Snow
hell I work at Intel and nobody is buzzing about NGMA???
Me too Ronster. I don't know where you work at Intel, but there's plenty of NGMA buzz in SMG and TMG (which account for approximately 75% of the company.)
Snow
OK, you've made your point. You don't respect most the people on this board. Now go away.
Snow
wbmw, I agree with your performance/watt statement but I wonder if AMD plans to use the 4X4 as a "loss-leader" simply to get PR. If so, they may get a price/performance advantage.
Snow
and sales dropped 52% year on year If this is true and it has a material effect on Intel's previous earnings guidance then I would expect Intel to warn in the next few days like they did for Q1 earnings on March 3rd, 2006.
http://www.intel.com/pressroom/archive/releases/20060303corp.htm
Snow
Smooth,
Oops, forget what I asked Also, where's the proof that Intel has none? I just realized I asked you to prove a negative.
Snow
And, these guys were up there presenting this stuff. So, IMO, AMD has the full support of these guys, Intel has none.
If it were an Intel conference and these same guys were touting Intel products, would you change your opinion? Also, where's the proof that Intel has none? Provide links please.
Snow
The problem is, I don't see Intel 4x (80/20) better at this point.
Funny, Intel hasn't even officially launched Conroe, Woodcrest, or Merom and yet you know a lot about them don't you? Guess what, so do the analysts and the marketing is just beginning.
You may not have noticed it, but Intel is now making direct comparisons to AMD products in their marketing of NGA. If you go back to the Pentium days of old, you'll see that Intel only compared their new products to their old products and never mentioned AMD. I think you'll see a very different and tougher Intel this time. Hector isn't messing around with an Engineer like Craig Barret, he's going head to head with a Sales and Marketing guy, Paul Otellini. My money is on Intel.
Snow
Not all of them.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=11394209
Snow
Here's a good summary of AMD's Technology Conference today.
But the glimpse of AMD's upcoming laptop chips left several analysts saying they were hungry for more details before they can evaluate how the products stack up against designs that its arch-rival may be preparing to offer.
"People were hoping that there would be a little more detail about those chips and when they will come out," said Cody Acree, an analyst with broker Stifel Nicholaus in Dallas, who attended the company briefing in Silicon Valley.
http://yahoo.reuters.com/stocks/quotecompanynewsarticle.aspx?storyId=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20060601...
I think their tech conference was very telling. Basically, AMD doesn't have an answer to Intel's new products so they're being vague and using PowerPoint vaporwear. If they really had a new mobile process design that they were going to release in 2007 then why don't they have any details or functional silicon?
Snow
wbmw,
If you add performance to the mix, it looks even worse for AMD.
Snow
Morrow,
One last note, get used to this type of marketing from AMD. Over the next two quarters AMD is going to be loud, noisy, and as obnoxious as they can be to try and draw attention away from Intel's SUPERIOR product line up.
AMD know's they've run out of steam with K8, they don't have an immediate response, and their long term response is evolutionary not revolutionary. Bottom line, AMD is desperate.
Snow
Morrow,
It's double talk. Here's the problem. The first statement says Intel’s next-generation server processor, dubbed Woodcrest, consumes some 466 Watts, Seyer said. In comparison, AMD’s rival chip, dubbed Santa Rosa, consumes 365 Watts or 28 percent less, he claimed.
Then the next paragraph goes on to "note" that The comparison was not just with the Woodcrest and Santa Rosa processors, but with all of the basic chips, including the chipset, memory controller and even the memory DIMMs, it was noted.
So in reality the processor consumes far less then 466 Watts and it's very suspect to claim it will with all the other components added because it depends on the system configuration. i.e. how many DIMMs etc..
Snow
Do you really think they have a good handle on their 45nm schedule more than a year and a half in advance? I'm not even certain they have a handle on their 65nm manufacturing, given that we still haven't seen one demonstrated running real applications at a reasonable clock speed.
BINGO! Now contrast this with the fact that Intel has already started development on 45nm and you see who continues to reign as the 'Manufacturing Giant' in the semiconductor industry.
Snow
What a joke. He's the only one singing that tune. The rest of the independent review sites see AMD's announcements as anti-climactic and out of reach with Merom, Conroe, and Woodcrest.
Snow
LOL, I'm migrating from a Northwood system too. I'm going from a 2.4GHz P4 to a 2.4GHz Core 2. Same clock speed and probably 3X the performance. Go figure :)
Snow
Man, back to school shopping for computers is going to be great for consumers. All of this just reinforces the fact that competition in the CPU industry is healthy and that AMD's anti-trust lawsuit is baseless.
Snow
I'm planning to buy a E6600 based platform in Jan. Not sure which OEM I'll buy from.
Snow
As nice as notebooks are for portability, having a desktop
with big monitors on them is nicer for getting real work
done
I totally agree. As a gamer, I wouldn't touch a laptop unless I was traveling. Even then, it's a fusterating experience.
Snow
Wow, that was a great article. It summarizes everything I've been thinking for the past few months.
Snow
AMD ASPs increased last Q, Intel ASPs decreased.
Who cares about last quarter? Last quarter has no affect on the current or future stock price. What happens in Q2, Q3, Q4, and 2007 is where your focus should be. Intel already set expectations for Q2. AMD, on the other hand, guided flat to seasonally down. There are current reports that state AMD is seeing an incredible amount inventory build up in the channel and I don't think AMD anticipated this in their earnings guidance. You're right, Q2 will be interesting. Good luck!
Snow
Reality sets in for AMD investors. Check this out, the price of AMD's stock is back to where it was prior to the Dell announcement. The only real winners here were the high risk traders.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=AMD&t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
Snow
Intel is frantically trying to hold onto share, sacrificing ASPs and revenues.
This is a price war and I gaurentee you AMD is doing the same thing. The only difference is that Intel baked this into their Q2 guidance and AMD didn't because AMD didn't plan or initiate the price war. This is a perfect move for INTC because it allows them to clear their old inventory, avoid write offs, and make room for the new product. All of this while driving down AMD's ASPs. Don't kid yourself, AMD's products aren't good enough to stand firm with this type of pricing preassure.
Snow
Enjoy
http://intelstartyourengines.com/
Snow
True, but I believe Lenovo picked them back up.
Snow