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The original statement wasn’t about where Niobium is going but where it is coming from. Yes, A Chinese company owns a Brazilian niobium mine. This is a far cry from niobium coming coming from China.
To answer your question anyways, it is going all over the world. CMOC is a publicly traded company headquartered in China. They are not a Chinese government entity.
Niobium does not come from China.
Lind funds failing projects all the time. I wouldn’t use that as an example. The convertible debt agreement gives them a hedge against falling stock prices. They get the warrants for the upside potential, but do not otherwise hold the common for any significant time. They make money with every conversion.
I’m not so sure. Last summer’s PP wasn’t even fully subscribed. Besides, “There is no minimum offering amount.”
What’s your point? I don’t see any one hear questioning the feasibility of ground freezing.
I don’t speak German and I’m not relying on google translate, but it doesn’t look like a good comparison. Train tunnels run horizontally at a shallow depth. This mine is generally vertical and the shallowest part of the carbonatite is roughly 200 meters below the surface.
I must have missed that post. Was it also the same depth? The depth is where things really become an issue and get costly. Ground freezing means more drilling, and drilling to these depths through bedrock is very expensive. We have an idea of what drilling costs are already. I’m curious how many holes are necessary around each shaft, plus the cost of piping, refrigerant, and the compressors.
Gotchya. Good post. A chance to maybe triple your investment in a year or two, or the riskier chance for a ten bagger if you want to wait this out for the long term certainly doesn’t sound like a dud to me!
Which investors will have a dud?
Don’t misinterpret my comments. I expect to be well into 2019 before project financing occurs.
As I suspected over a year ago, this seems to confirm the chief driver of the ground freezing technique was the difficulty in achieving the additional permits.
Sims comment in the Bloomberg article certainly suggested that there would be $100MM in savings. I wondered aloud on this board previously that the ground freezing technique would add to the capex but decrease construction time. I questioned myself after the Bloomberg article, but now wonder again if this doesn’t increase cost.
I’m not so worried about soon. I just hope the dilution doesn’t hamper the share price.
Thank you for clarifying, mono. I remember this comment for the investors webcast after the 2017 annual meeting. It was during a relatively short Q&A session. Unfortunately, I don't think that video was ever uploaded.
$6.36 USD.
Edited. Forgot to subtract taxes if you read my original estimate. Assumed a 25% tax rate. The FS uses 30% initially and then drops to 25%.
I wonder how relevant the initial $20-$30 million is today. The intent of that money was to allow detailed engineering to proceed without interruption. We know now the that the detailed engineering for the underground portion is completed, but we do not know how Nordmin was compensated.
There may have been some sort of deferred compensation, or the promise for a future debt to shares payment like Northcott was given. If they do the same thing for detailed engineering on the facilities side, then the $20-$30 initial financing is no longer necessary and can just be rolled into a larger financing package.
Thanks for posting. It's nice to see they have maintained their original commitment to a final investing decision in early 2019.
I was also unaware that they have already entered a purchasing agreement for an "accommodation facility" for 300 temporary workers, and expect it to be on site this calendar year.
Between that and the autoclaves, they appear very confident that the investment decision will be favorable and within the expected timeline.
Correct, except for one thing. This article has a typo. Chemours raised prices by $150/tonne, not to $150 per tonne.
Chemours is not a miner. This is where the specialty chemical argument comes into play. They are selling a finished good direct to paint manufacturers and other companies.
Niocorp's plans for titanium have only been to sell it as a raw good with minimum 95% purity. It's a byproduct after all. You can get historical prices from the USGS. It was actaully .74/kg for 2016 and estimated at .74/kg for 2017. The USGS uses the same Australian source that SRK used for the .88/kg estimate in the FS.
The other link posted was to a titanium alloy and is just as absurd as checking alibaba, amazon, or ebay for commodity prices.
Here’s a URL to a site that may be slightly more reliable than alibaba. I’ll sick with their $0.88/kg.
http://www.niocorp.com/images/PR_NioCorp_Releases_Results_Elk_Creek_FS_6-30-2017_vFINAL.pdf
The price is in the FS. Take it up with corporate if you believe they priced it at less than 1/12 of your assumptions.
And good lord, I hope everyone here understands that alibaba is the amazon of China. Neither is a platform for mass commodity sales. This is insane.
You should research the product you are referencing.
Why not? Scandium is $16,000/kg on eBay!
https://m.ebay.com/itm/Scandium-Metal-99-995-Pure-1-Gram-Dendritic-Crystalline-for-Element-Collection/122489024163?hash=item1c84ea2ea3:g:dlEAAOSwuxFYw8cp
We’re all going to be millionaires! Can’t believe no one else sees the value!
Alibaba isn’t where manufacturers go to but titanium. You just as well check amazon or eBay.
Absolutely right.
As courageous as they come.
What forecast for scandium should I use? Current sales prices like Niocorp, or the much lower price that ALL Australian miners are using?
Should I use 100-200 tpa of production, as they are capable of, or the 10tpa that they assumed for the life of mine on the chance that the Sc market does not grow as some have predicted.
What about CAPEX? CLQ included capex to expand production, but did not assume the revenues of added production in the NPV.
I’ve detailed how I came to my $5 max on Niocorp multiple times on this board. One can easily recreate that for CLQ if they would like to do that due diligence. The CLQ feasibility study is much more conservative than NB’s, meaning that if I wanted to calculate the maximum possible value for the Sunrise mine it would take far more number crunching than I am in a mood to do.
My Niocorp projections are based entirely on the results of the FS, taking into account MS’s comments on 60/40 to 40/60 debt and equity financing.
I then base it on projected market cap divided by share count, not an ignorant projection on share price in a vacuum.
Post 40523.
Not completely off base.
Largo mines different minerals with established markets. Niocorp’s primary revenue source is supposed to come from a currently nonexistent market. If it was purely Nb then a Largo comparison would be an underestimation.
Largo is an existing mine. Niocorp is an untapped resource. Largo’s capex was under $300MM. We know Niocorp’s needs. They are significant.
I thoroughly analyzed Largo 18 months ago and decided not to invest. My primary reason was because I didn’t want to buy into an underperformer in a struggling country with uncertain political ramifications. From a purely investment standpoint this was obviously the wrong decision, but given the information available at the time I would make the same decision today. This is where Niocorp differs.
I answered that already.
Midas Gold also testified at the hearing. They fit your exact description of a penny stock junior miner.
1. The 10-k is not “due” on Friday. It is due 90 days after the end of the quarter, meaning it’s due the end of September. Most companies release quarterly reports at about the same time year over year. Last years came out on 9/1. That’s a Saturday this year so I anticipate it coming out on 8/31. It could also be 9/4 or later.
3. Nordmin analysis is apparently expected to be complete by 8/31, per Sims comments in the Bloomberg article. We do not know what it contains, whether it can be publicly or released, or when it would be publicly released.
4. I assume this comment is about the critical minerals report. One key point in the hearings is about the need to recycle critical minerals. While there is reason to be optimistic about the report, there is no guarantee it will benefit Niocorp.
Finally, I don’t expect anything Monday.
I’m not as comfortable putting a 12 month target on Niocorp. There are too many variables in the air right now, and I’m not as confident that they will be financed in 12 months as I am Clean Teq. Niocorp’s business model is more likely to require a scandium off take prior to financing, which we are yet to see. On the other hand there seems to be a significant possibility for government support that could hasten things. This prediction will likely be easier to make in a few months. For now it’s probably best to defer to the H.C. Wainwright target of $1.20 CAD.
No. That time frame is definitely longer than a couple years. It’s also what I view as max upside and not necessarily my prediction.
The Clean Teq long term calculation is much more convoluted due to their plans of stockpiling scandium. The Cobalt pricing is also less predictable than niobium, although all indications are that long term it will rise significantly. I have a $1.50 USD 12 month target for that investment.
Yes. I think $5 is about the maximum upside, but that is a long ways off and not something I would expect until production, revenue projections, and the estimated scandium market growth are proven.
I wonder if Niocorp is still discussing a long term agreement with them.
Clean Teq is worth three times as much as Niocorp.....
It doesn't make any sense for either of these companies to buy the other, and I am quite certain neither is even considering it. Both are in the process of securing over a billion dollars to finance their own endeavors. Both also fully acknowledge that for a scandium boom to take place it is going to require multiple suppliers. Cornering the Sc market would destroy and possibility of it growing over the current 15 tpa.
One companies worth twice as much as the other. Quit focusing on one statistic that is meaningless on its own.
Is a $320MM market cap with 743 million shares outstanding different than a $160MM market cap with 370 million shares outstanding?
How do the outstanding shares of a mining company correlate to the value of the resource and the companies ability to grow share price to a point where it meets NPV?
Hopefully Clean Teq is able to get this Scandium ball rolling. Their Ni and Co reserves support themselves. They may pave the way for junior miners in other countries that have based their livelihoood on the development of the Sc market.
BHP Billiton, the worlds largest mining company, has 5.3 BILLION shares outstanding. Vale has 5.2 BILLION shares outstanding. I hope they don’t do a R/S.