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Hi Newly2b, i usually see your handle on dream machine or computer learning boards. Looks funny to see it on another board!!
1) A very interesting point about QID relative to QLD, (I get no credit for this thought- it was pointed out to me on another board -- forgot who, tho)
Cont'd -- IRA's (as well as non-margin cash accounts) can short QQQQ only thru Leveraged Mutual Funds or Leveraged ETFs,
Sooo, QID becomes a major player and has much more volume than QLD.
2) "In your opinion, does supply/demand for QID itself not influence price also?" In my opinion it does. I am surely no expert here, but the small spreads (1cent) in QQQQ/SPY/DIA pricing and volumes of 66mil/26.6mil/4.3mil (current at 1:40pm) speak to the liquidity they have and what supply and demand could do to them.
QID (49.93-bid/ask-43.95) and 1.8mil shares VS QLD (88.39-bid/ask-88.45) and only .238mil shares speaks to a vastly more sensitive situation.
So, again, I THINK that Implied Volitility is the biggest driver and then liquidity for any leveraged inverse ETF, as well as Leveraged and Inverse Mutual Funds. That is the nature of the method to get the leverage or inverse function.
3) " Is there a set number of shares issued, or can anyone buy into the fund in any amount at any time (no limit to number of shares issued)?"
I knew the answer to that, but have forgotten. Seems that new shares are readily created if demand warrants. I read it at the profunds/proshares site, i believe. My memory is getting so bad in last few years. The proshares site has a lot of interesting reading on these vehicles.
Here is the url for the QID Prospectus which should call out the additional info you might like.
I breifly read 1 page just now, enough that would make me think that someone or a broker trying to trade a significan % of the normal volume would cause supply/demand influence. I think that it is probably used by US retail guys, tho. The real Pros would just use options/futures directly. IMHO, which is worth what you paid for it.
4) Another very original thought by greenba, was to SHORT QID to go LONG, and not have the liquidity problems of QLD -- course, ya got Margin Interest to cough up, but someone mentioned that some brokers give a credit for shorting -- I never heard of THAT, but I sure don't know a lot,
bobjack
http://www.proshares.com/resources/litcenter
Hi Burk, Here, I believe is the explanation, and I believe it will return to the nominal 2x.
This is from a post that I made yesterday addressing the same situation:
*************************************
Re: Interesting -- Or , How can both QID and QLD be UP??
SEVERAL points here Capn, for all to ponder.
1) The way that these funds become leveraged and/or inverse, is thru the use of derivatives(futures and options)
2) Options -- certainly a major component of their pricing is
volitility (think fear of rapid up, OR, down moves).
3) I have seen both QID and QLD up intraday while QQQQ was
basically flat -- the secret I believe was that the QQQQ had been jumpimg higher and lower (like an oscillator waveform) -- the rapid price oscillations introduce a higher volitility rate onto the options/QID/QLD price.
IF, QQQQ moves "up or down", as well as "up and down", gradually thru the day, the options, as well as, QID:QQQQ and QLD:QQQQ price ratios, track pretty smoothly. If QQQQ charges hard in either direction or oscillates wildly around say $45, the implied volitility shoots up driving the option prices up and the QID/QQQQ and QLD/QQQQ ratios up.
Again, if price starts at 45, jumps around a bunch and gets back to 45, BOTH QID and QLD will be up, while QQQQ is FLAT (from the 45 start point). QLD and options "spreads" will be up also based on the volitility and the lack of liquidity. I think QID spreads get wider, but not like QLD and options spreads.
4) Another important facet of trading options and
Leveraged/inversed funds is:
How to use the above facts to help you, not hurt you!!
5) This whole volitility thing is a momentum/fear game.
6) Selling a winner into higher volitility makes you a lot more money,
Selling a loser into higher volitility REALLY hurts and costs
you a lot more money.
7) Being able to anticipate a turning point, and putting in
a "limit order" to sell before QQQQ hits the top, or bottom, but that accurately calls the top, can get you 50% more in price of options (say $15 instead of $10), than you will get a couple of minutes later after price acceleration has slowed or stopped (the fear of a much larger and/or faster move has dissipated or subsided)
8) Think of implied volitility as insurance risk factor. Think of options as insurance(which was the original purpose/use of options).
High risk (or just high fear) momentarily in the market, means high insurance premiums or high volitility componet of options/leveraged funds.
9) I have not done this subject justice and may have confused some.
It is the sum of my knowledge and observations over the last 2 weeks trying to trade QID, QLD, and options.
Read about options on CBOE web site. Also there are probably
hundreds of books on options, blah, blah, blah
I cannot recommend any. Probably others here can recommend and
clarify what I have tried to say. The explanation/theory is hard to put into words and can be a hard concept for newbies to grasp. I think the fear/risk insurance analogy is the easiest to embrace.
bobjack
you probably just deleted thew shortcut to it.
if you just want to restore the shortcut, this is the location and file name on my box.
even tho the program name is sound recorder, the file name is not that simple
C:\WINDOWS\System32\sndrec32.exe
and you are right, cannot edit with it.
still handy on occasion, and fast cause it is little
hi ottoman, you can use sound recorder which is in nearly all windows versions under:
start/programs/accessories/entertainment/sound recorder
it saves to wav right off and can do minor manipulations -- reverb, backwards, and boost n cut volume, and i believe combine two files,
bobjack
bergemeister, that is cool, thank you for the info.
I know several people, besides MYSELF, who will benefit from this info.
I use o/l express. Loaded tbird a month or so back by clicking on wrong link trying to backpedal to firefox 1.5. I had upgraded from 1.5 to 2.0 and had some problems, and uninstalled 2 to re-install 1.5. Lost all my current home pages and really ticked me off.
I remember early on, when i went from f/f 1.0 to 1.5, i had problems and went back to 1.0.
Anyway, my very brief look at tbird was not impressive, but it was by accident. I will d/l it again in in the near future (purposely) and give it a real shot.
Do you have any idea why i might have had problems with f/f 2.0? Seems that a few do. Sheesh, i do not even remember what my problem was, so i cannot give you any worthwhile info to troubleshoot.
I use i/e, f/f, and opera, all because i have different home pages locked into each. I have heard of so many people uninstalling i/e 7, that i will not d/l it.
HAPPY NEW YEAR if i don't get back to/with ya before sunday!!!!
bobjack
you can only use tbird or outlook with yahoo mail if you pay the $20/year for premium services.
not too bad, if you really need it.
hi Steve, that is interesting -- did he elaborate on that any, or just mention it?
I have never heard of that book.
there are a few more interesting streams on that link that i posted. Hope others find it useful. I thought that i had seen some of that streaming info in an article at khouse, but i could not find articles on it, when i posted that link.
bobjack
Hi 2X,
you might be interested in a link that i posted about the feds to poker,
it is streaming audio from Chuck Missler about the history of the NON-FEDERAL nature of the So Called "Federal Reserve"
bobjack
Yes, it would only be useful for the non-proprietary type of q/a already being answered on this thread now.
just a thought,
bobjack
Hi Steve, if you really want to add faqs here, you could post as normal messages and put links to them in the ibox.
i.e. page 1 - topic
page 2 - topic
etc
disadvantage is that they cannot be edited, BUT, they could be deleted and replaced and the updated address put in the ibox -- just a thought as a workaround for this site
bobjack
Hi poker, do you know "who" the feds are?
The federal reserve bank system, which I believe 2X is referring to, IS NOT A FEDERAL agency at all. The fed reserve is a group of private banks masquarading inder the fed guise to look better, or official.
They were more or less brought into existance (roots go back to) about 1910.
For A History Lesson, Listen to The Title below:
Is the Federal Reserve System Responsible for Presidential Assassinations?
on this LINK: http://www.khouse.org/6640/BP067/
bobjack
Also read about Rothchild Banking:
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=rothchild+europe+banking
farooq, JOLLY GOOD Forecast,
i know you make some boo boo's, but you make far more good calls.
hope ners is keeping straight in the short term too,
bobjack
NFLD just took a $1.75 kick in the crotch.
I may well wish I had sold the $10 calls, not the $12.50.
12.50 jan calls bid 2.45 ask 3.80 stock - 12.75
My broker risk management dept called yesterday at 4:15 about this trade, missed him while i was out, and havn't call him back today.
bobjack
Nocona, they get their leverage from a combination of options and futures, so are loosly tied to qqqq, and that is where the rubberband effect comes from They will always be tied to qqqq movement, but not absolutely solidly.
they "STRIVE" to track qqqq by 2X and -2X
bobjack
hi travis, the EOD sig does not appear to be posted yet,
is it close?
bobjack
hi husk, he still posts on cs as jbourdeau,
he last posted on dec3. i don't think he did so well this fall
bobjack
sjd56, thank you very much for the info,
bobjack
S2, I jumped on that, I would sure appreciate you giving any heads-up that you stumble on to, or dig out with your scans.
I did the more greedy route tho, I sold the $12.50 calls. If it stays above 12.50, I get about 20% and I think below 10.50 I start to lose. Not as safe for sure. I certainly appreciate it.
good luck to us,
bobjack
ps -- I was wondering how you found that, and as I was gearing up to ask, I found that you had already answered my question!!
Very Interesting Gloe, Thanks,
bobjack
pt n capn, gotcha -- had me scratchin my noggin for a while,
what prompted my question was -- in amibroker, I have run optimization on systems or indicators using 3 different settings:
"long only"
"short only"
and "long and short" (which obviously could not have overlapping signals generated)
the "trade dates/signals for an optimized combo (long/short)" never matched the "trade dates/signals for an optimised "long only" and "trade dates/signals for an optimised short only"
if the long only signals, and short only signals, had matched the long/short signals, I would have thought my optimizations were optimum
boy, is that a mouthful and kinda confusing
if it makes no sense, don't waste time trying to figure it out,
bobjack
pt, Are saying that if you optimise for longs only, and then optimise for shorts only, that the trade dates are in sync on all but one occassion -- meaning no overlap of signals or no dead space (days out of market) between signals???
thanks,
bobjack
Bob257, Here Ya Go, The Merlin Group Support Board.
Read all the poop in the iBOX at the top of the page.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=7383
uncle_chubbie, "bernie the bum", it is then!!!
They are close to me. That picture in the ads must be 15 yrs old. he is no spring chicken. I spent several K with them in 2001/2002 -- lost money on bad rec and high press sales pitches too. They actually made recs tho, where Wade Cook just said ,"what if you did this or that and made this amount in a couple of days or weeks?"
He did not dare actually make recs. I had several of his books to start out.
OUCH, those were some more expensive lessons, I looked like a pin cushion or one of those little dolls that witch doctors poke pins in. Oh My,
bobjack
eddie, go to "view" in your top row of buttons --
---------------------------------------------
File | Edit | View | Tools | Message | Help|
---------------------------------------------
click "view", and then on the "drop down menu", click columns
make sure that "received" is checked, to turn the receive column on.
you may have to scroll right in the normal view to see extra columns
bobjack
sent, your comment just made me bust out laughing, it must be time for Wade Cook to start advertizing on radio again!!
I see Bernie Schaeffer ads on top of stockcharts pages.
Up market, All charlatans into the water,
ha, ha
bobjack
ST, I agree with you too, and I think one needs a healthy dose of intuition/gut instinct/a good memory/and lots of experience to recognize scenerios/setups or repeatable patterns. I have not been successful so my hat's off to those that are.
I am leaning towards picking a trending stock and just using trendlines on a 3 yr daily chart. I can actually see that.
Some of the other patterns that are easy for me are the sling-shots and lizzards that Gloe has brought up.
JMHO cause I have a bad memory and cannot stay focused and am just barely getting better at money management.
cheers,
bobjack
Hi Farooq,
We here with limited resources think we have figured all holy grails of trading we forget that Big money hire thousand of people who are masters in TA, including E- wave; computer program, programmers and FA. At the end in the long run house always win. Be care full if you are a bear out there
I'll say AMEN to that, we are grasshoppers, they are giants,
You are pretty good on your calls, the "51.30 in next five months" seems hard to believe, but you may be right.
Hope it is a obvious trend wherever it goes,
good luck,
bobjack
air, Thank You for commenting, I appreciate it and all the posters on this board.
I think you are right about selling the books. Many people try to repackage routine stuff to try and put a new spin on it for marketing --
bobjack
fast_eddie, YAHOO email in Outlook Express works only if you have yahoo premium email service.
Try it free for 30 days (limited time offer)
$19.99/year thereafter!
This was from their web site:
How do I POP my mail?
The ability to access Yahoo! Mail via a POP3 email client (such as Outlook or Outlook Express) is only available to customers of our premium Yahoo! Mail Plus service.
If you have not purchased the Yahoo! Mail Plus service, you will be unable to retrieve messages via an email client. To determine whether or not you have purchased this service, please visit the My Services page.
For all Netscape clients
For Outlook clients
For Eudora 5.1 or higher clients
For Outlook Express for Mac clients
For Outlook 2002(XP) clients
For all other mail clients
If you have purchased the service, but continue to experience errors, then please visit our POP help pages.
http://help.yahoo.com/help/us/mail/pop/pop-40.html
bobjack
wccawa, the download page surely does not indicate that, and it is time limited, indicating that it craps out on about june 2007 if I am reading the notes right.
I am with you tho, that would be sweet.
I read a recent write-up that bad mouthed all but the home version and the new office also. I cannot recall who did the write-up.
Interesting that you love em and he did not. Beauty is in the eye if the beholder.
If I knew I could get the new one for free, I'd go for it. The d/l page says that you could be facing a new clean install on going to the final version -- maybe the chances of that are zilch, maybe just to cover their butt???
A few ads are now saying you get a free vista upgrade coupon with winxp, if purchased now.
Link to Info on D/L page:
http://www.microsoft.com/windowsvista/getready/preview.mspx
bobjack
fats_eddie, For server URL: I enter
http://services.msn.com/svcs/hotmail/httpmail.asp
I tried to setup an AOL web mIL account for our church secretary in O/L express and never could get it to work. I got the info for setting up hotmail in O/L express from the hotmail Q & A pages.
Check the yahoo mail Q & A pages and see if they say anything about it or do a google search for it.
Since hotmail belongs to Mister Softee, probably only hotmail can be setup in it. I seem to remember trying to set up my wife's hotmail a couple of years later and could npt, I remember thinking that my account was grand-fathered in, and I probably could not add newer hotmail accounts.
M/S is snotty about other brand interfaces.
BUT, there are other email programs that can control all types of email accounts easily, IF I REMEMBER correctly.
Some look and work somewhat like O/L express, I THINK.
Just have not had occasion to experiment except in Linux, and I liked a couple of their email programs -- looked and acted like O/L express.
bobjack
Hi deavg, Thankx, I know and have considered it.
I like being able to buy and sell stocks too, tho. Look at aeos and aro and jcp and kss and other retailers. You coulda made 400% in last 3 years by owning some of them.
I have been my own worst enemy, I kept looking at 3 month or shorter charts.
Long term daily charts with trendlines and stops could make lots of money in retailers and energy stocks. Duh or Doh, I have not made squat from lookin at the forrest and not seein the trees.
I am NOW a firm believer in long term charts first, and then look at short term. If you can catch a trending stock, you can make it.
bobjack
Hi Peg, I know nothing of him. I just read the post referencing him on iHub and then read Dent's two referenced posts. I remember a couple of years ago when someone was predicting DOW 20,000 and I thought they must be WHACKOS.
But, then I cannot figure out out anything on my own, so I ain't no good either.
I really wanted to hear what air or mr_cash or any other good cyclers had to say about the articles. I cannot make any worthwhile comment myself. I know there are cycles, but I don't have the mental material to really understand it.
I am curious tho.
cheers,
bobjack
NOTICE: I need no disclaimer, I know nothing!!
'fast_eddie', I think kenwong is right -- you might want to use another email provider.. I use hotmail and received it right after transmission. I use outlook express and have it check my hotmail account. I do not know if you can still setup a new account that way though. you can tell outlook how often to check for new mail, and to make a sound of your choice when new mail arrives.
email sometimes IS NOT THE INSTANT communication that most people believe. I once received an email 3 MONTHS late at work. An extreme case, but I send messages back and forth to myself in many different accounts at work and home and some are virtually instant (matter of seconds) and some are a matter of minutes. On rare occasions, it takes 15 to 20 minutes.
I do all that as reminders and notes for future reference. Also I have 3 computers and only one is connected to a printer, so for different reasons, I send email to the one on the printer. I keep file and printer sharing turned off for security reasons. I did mention the possibility of email delays to travis or the capn, I cannot remember which, early on, but there isn't much that they can do. It does not sound like today was a collective2 problem since I received it right away, but I suppose they could have had a glitch part way thru the email list or they were prankin and just tried to convert you to slow_eddie (email wise, just kiddin)
I finally decided to just use next day open. The 2006 NDO data is about 10% lower that the same day close, if I remember correctly.
For all the convenience of NDO, I will not get greedy. A bigger problem for me is the mutual fund thing with cutoff at 3:50. I finally decided to dump the mutual funds and split each account into thirds and used QID/QLD combination. I will only have 1/3 of money invested at a time and can set stop loss orders (cannot with mutual funds) and can get out any time of day, or get in any time of day. Again looking at the advantages of the situation. If in reality. I can make 25% to 95% on 1X in a reg broker account, then using 2X to get 50% to 190% on 1/3 of my funds, while being able to get in or out at will, SHORT and Long, in an IRA sounds PRETTY SWEET to me... AND, I would only have 1/3 of my funds at risk at a time!!
GOOD LUCK to us ALL,
bobjack
PS -- the reason for the 1/3 move is so that I could dump any holdings and buy something new each day. If I had 100% invested, I could not buy again til 3 days later when the transaction closed in the IRA, no 3 day wait in a reg margin account, but you gotta pay interest for a 3-day loan if ya sell n buy 100% same day.
farooq, that's an interesting thought.. following that logic, a CCI-144 on 5-Min chart is really 5*144 or 720 Min data and a CCI-12 is 60 Min of data. Relative to that 720 data, 40 is pretty short. Any indicator with a time period (most, I think) would be a similar situation. Although the EMA puts most emphasis on the most recent data and the SMA give same importance to all data.
A CCI-50 on a daily chart is 72,000 minutes of data.. There is some perspective.
regards, bobjack
airedale88 and other cyclers, have you seen this post referring to a gent named Dent who is claiming that there is a new long cycle that he and a couple of others (who wrote books about it) are using??.
If it is of interest, please comment on it. If not, forget that I posted this.
regards,
bobjack
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg_ig.asp?message_id=14933573
Thanks Again, I figured you knew something most others were missing, more valuable info!!
bobjack
Bruce, don't all those bad reviews (on this M/B on newegg's advertisement page) scare you about that board??
bobjack
Thanks Bruce, that article was exactly the info that I wanted to see.
Did you read that article yourself??
Very enlightning. The dude surmises that there might be quad cores out 1st quarter next year (if I remember right) for about the same money as a dual core now.
Can the terminator M/B at roughly $120 be used to overclock the E6400 or does one have to go for a more expensive board for that? I am thinking just for use with air cooler, not exotic overclock.
THANKS again for the article, PERFECT.
bobjack
Hi Bruce, can you comment on the performance differences expected between an Intel Pentium D 945 Presler 3.4GHz VS Conroe E6400 at std clock speeds and then overclocked on air cooling, say with stock retail coolers??? They are both in same price ballpark.
Thanks,
bobjack