Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
What does it mean for us long shareholders?
20 bucks seems to be the consensus around here where I am not far off
when I said the lower 20's
Will the partnership announcement happen before the permitting?
You are right.
Nak owns the mining rights of pebble which is the largest known deposit
probably in the world.
Yea right, this is a scam.
Do these people know what they are talking about?
What!!
Do you have some kind of magic crystal ball to make that prediction?
Please let me in on it if you do because I would like to borrow it.
Remember that the 4th quarter is not over yet and that is when the
partnership should be finalized.
Does not meet the minimum $2.00 pps required to list on the Nasdaq.
Very interesting piece.
What I found interesting was this statement conflicting with NAK's
gold reserve amount.
Quote:
------------------------------------------------------------------------
WHEN A GOLD GIANT SPEAKS, YOU SHOULD LISTEN…
Pierre Lassonde is a giant in the mining business. In 1982, he co-founded Franco-Nevada, the first publicly-traded gold royalty company, which now has a seven billion dollar market cap. He played a critical role in the growth of Newmont Mining, the world’s second largest gold producer, heading to become the largest as current No. 1 Barrick Gold divests non-core mines. When he speaks, you and I should pay attention… In a recent interview, discussing the global gold supply going forward, Lassonde said:
Production is declining and this is going to put an enormous amount of pressure on prices down the road. If you look back to the 70s, 80s, and 90s, in each of those decades the industry found at least one 50+ million ounce gold deposit, at least ten 30+ million ounce deposits and countless 5 to 10 million ounce deposits. But if you look at the last 15 years, we found no 50 million ounce deposit, no 30 million ounce deposit, and only very few 15 million ounce deposits. So where are those great big deposits we found in the past? How are they going to be replaced? We don’t know. We do not have those ore bodies in sight…
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Taken from above---
But if you look at the last 15 years, we found no 50 million ounce deposit.
Does he not know about NAK?
Agree.
People are jumping ship to soon.
If this was mid to late January 2018 and no partnership I would understand why.
We just have to wait it out another month if that.
He has to use a lot of diplomatic talk to appease the fishing consortium.
The company has a lot to offer Alaska in jobs and taxes but some Alaskans
can't see the forest for the trees.
Long on NAK!
We are on the NAK roller coaster once again.
Come on NAK get your act together and secure a partner.
Take a good look at the corporate overview.
This could be a 10 bagger or better in the next 2 years.
This stock Look like a winner.
That sounds reasonable but I doubt a buyout will happen.
I hope I am proven wrong.
All I can say now is that I have more interest in the hot models
advertising their wares on Ihub.
Go Ihub, bring us more.
Like I said, what a shame if it turns out that way.
I wrote this in haste and not proof reading it--
Correction below.
If you don't think I am right, just look what has been stopped or tried to be stopped in the lower 48 and Alaska.
What a shame, the company is willing to do back flips to try and satisfy the environmentalist but just shut down this huge natural resource
to have it all their way.
I am sure the company will do everything within the EPA guidelines and will
be closely watched.
So let's stop drilling for oil, pipelines and mining to satisfy the environmentalist.
Wow, does it get any worse than that.
If you don't think I am right, just look what has been stopped or tied to be stoped in the lower 48 and Alaska.
You mean government incompetence like the EPA illegally blocking
any mining at Pebble.
This company has gone through a lot of sh$t to get where it is today.
The environmentalist back here in the States and Alaska are still trying
to stop this project.
I wouldn't doubt that a lot of the naked shorts are environmentalist.
The problem, like with many of the government agencies, you have leftover
personal from the previous administration.
Pruitt should have cleaned house in the EPA.
Well they only have a little over 5 weeks to
get off their butts to let us know about the partnership.
So did this happen or not at the gold and silver forum?
Quote from SA article ---
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Thiessen’s presentation on Nov 21 is at 12:05PM local time (PST) during trading hours.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
I lock my shares every day.
They are in it to make the transaction fees so they will not
protect my shares from the naked shorts.
I don't care what my broker says.
That's the same question I have.
That's what I am thinking.
I posted the original SA quote this AM and they gave an actual time
of the presentation of the CEO.
So maybe some misinformation there as why the article was pulled.
I believe that $36 is a little wishful thinking but the
lower $20's is more in line if a buyout happens and that is a big (IF).
In other words not likely to happen.
This company has been through too much to settle on a buyout.
Sorry to say but big sell off is coming.
But why would he even give the time of the
presentation?
Quote:
__________________________________________________________________________
The fact that the market sees that Mr. Thiessen is presenting at one of the biggest mining conferences of the year in the middle of this recent period where management has been 'very busy, very very busy,' according to IR, signifies that the company has something significant to present. Moreover, Thiessen’s presentation on Nov 21 is at 12:05PM local time (PST) during trading hours.
__________________________________________________________________________
What was the date stamp on that link?
The most telling of of the latest ---
Timing of Repartnering
As for timing of partnership announcement, until the beginning of this week, we did not know for certain that Northern Dynasty Minerals CEO Ron Thiessen was presenting at the Silver & Gold Summit (Nov 20-21) in San Francisco. As background, the Silver & Gold Summit is one of the most important mining conferences of the year. Monday was the first time that it was posted on the conference agenda website that Northern Dynasty is officially presenting.
Recent outreach to NAK’s Investor Relations has confirmed that both Ron Thiessen and Doug Allen, Vice President, Corporate Communications, are attending the conference in San Francisco. The team will have a booth for the entire conference, however more importantly, IR confirmed that Ron Thiessen is presenting for a 10-minute slot.
The fact that the market sees that Mr. Thiessen is presenting at one of the biggest mining conferences of the year in the middle of this recent period where management has been 'very busy, very very busy,' according to IR, signifies that the company has something significant to present. Moreover, Thiessen’s presentation on Nov 21 is at 12:05PM local time (PST) during trading hours.
The question on many investors' minds is when will NAK management release the press release about what will be presented at Thiessen’s Nov 21 speech. If one reaches out to IR, IR will only confirm that the speech will be taking place, but nothing is revealed about the content. In contrast, when asked about prior speeches by the management team, IR would typically comment on the topic of presentation, such as stating,
Tom’s presentation to the World Trade Center on Wednesday will be very similar to his October 5th presentation to the Resource Development Council.
Interestingly, Thiessen’s speech occurs in the middle of the trading session, at 3:05pm EST (12:05PM PST), so we could surmise that NAK would need to release the news via PR prior to Mr. Thiessen’s speech. My reasoning is that the likelihood of a midday halt is low. Also, if one were to ask IR about how repartnering news will be released, IR will say it would be expected to come in an after-hours press release. Given that assumption, the latest possible PR would be next Tuesday morning (11/21) BMO. However, that morning coincides with when Ron Thiessen is in San Francisco. It is possible that the deal will be signed in San Francisco, but all the recent PRs have been about Alaska and lasering in on how the Pebble Project will help Alaskans and the Alaskan economy while protecting the environment. Thus, there is a much greater degree of likelihood that the deal signing will take place in Anchorage this week, as it did in 2007 when NAK partnered with Anglo.
The latest.
Northern Dynasty: Detailed Valuation Analysis Supports Bullishness
Nov. 20, 2017 8:00 AM ET|8 comments| About: Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd (NAK)
Greg Wilkins
Greg Wilkins
Long/short equity, hedge fund analyst
(12 followers)
Summary
Much has been written about NAK but no formal valuation analysis has been provided.
In this article, I show my valuation analysis resulting in a stock price of $9.50 - $11.00 per share based on a $2.9 billion buy-in for 50% ownership interest.
$2.9 billion is in line with the range of what other Seeking Alpha contributors have postulated; it is a reasonable estimate given the degree of interest the majors have shown.
Asfor timing, it is not difficult to read the tea leaves that an importantannouncement is forthcoming when NAK CEO Ron Thiessen presents on Tuesday beforeone of the largest mining conferences of the year.
Logistically,a CEO cannot make a major announcement during a speech delivered during tradinghours, so the related PR must be released beforehand.
By Greg Wilkins and Paul Lebo, CFA.
Background
Northern Dynasty Minerals (NYSEMKT:NAK) is the sole owner of the Pebble Mine, the largest undeveloped copper and gold mine in the world. Pebble is located in the Southeast portion of the state of Alaska. During the Obama administration, the EPA placed a preemptive veto on development of the Pebble Mine with the thesis that it could harm the salmon fishing business in Bristol Bay, which is greater than 100 miles from the Pebble Mine. In the years leading up to the veto, NAK had one partner, Anglo American (OTCPK:AAUKF). Following the pre-emptive veto, Anglo withdrew from the partnership citing capital constraints. Fast forward to May 12, 2017 and the veto was lifted by Scott Pruitt and team at President Trump's EPA.
Fellow contributor Peter Arendas wrote a detailed summary of the resources in the ground, which can be viewed here.
Valuation analysis
I have used the following assumptions in my valuation analysis of NAK:
JV terms of $2.9 Billion equity contribution;
NAK 50% equity value is worth the equivalent;
Both sides can lever up their equity to a 50% loan to value ratio;
This means both sides can raise $1.45 billion in debt financing;
Estimated capex on a ‘smaller mine’ footprint = $5 billion (Note BMO recently stated 4.8);
JV Equity Contribution (50%)
$2.9 Billion
Leverage @ 50% LTV
$1.45
Total Contribution
$4.35 Billion
Implied NAK Equity Value
$2.9 Billion
Leverage @ 50% LTV
$1.45
Total Capital Without Additional Dilution
$5.80 Billion
Estimated Capex
$5.00
Excess Leverage (Required Dilution to NAK Shareholders)
$-
Basic Shares Outstanding (million)
303
Equity Value per Share - No adjustments
$9.57
Equity Value per Share Adjusted (1)
$11.01
1. Private Mkt transactions effected at ~15% discount to fair value
The analysis above shows a per share value based on consortium partnership terms of $2.9 billion of approximately $9.57-$11.01 USD (including accounting for the private market discount of 15% at the high end). However, this analysis ignores the impact of shorts needing to cover and other factors above that could drive the price much higher (institutions, momentum traders, insiders, etc.).
Timing of Repartnering
As for timing of partnership announcement, until the beginning of this week, we did not know for certain that Northern Dynasty Minerals CEO Ron Thiessen was presenting at the Silver & Gold Summit (Nov 20-21) in San Francisco. As background, the Silver & Gold Summit is one of the most important mining conferences of the year. Monday was the first time that it was posted on the conference agenda website that Northern Dynasty is officially presenting.
Recent outreach to NAK’s Investor Relations has confirmed that both Ron Thiessen and Doug Allen, Vice President, Corporate Communications, are attending the conference in San Francisco. The team will have a booth for the entire conference, however more importantly, IR confirmed that Ron Thiessen is presenting for a 10-minute slot.
The fact that the market sees that Mr. Thiessen is presenting at one of the biggest mining conferences of the year in the middle of this recent period where management has been 'very busy, very very busy,' according to IR, signifies that the company has something significant to present. Moreover, Thiessen’s presentation on Nov 21 is at 12:05PM local time (PST) during trading hours.
The question on many investors' minds is when will NAK management release the press release about what will be presented at Thiessen’s Nov 21 speech. If one reaches out to IR, IR will only confirm that the speech will be taking place, but nothing is revealed about the content. In contrast, when asked about prior speeches by the management team, IR would typically comment on the topic of presentation, such as stating,
Tom’s presentation to the World Trade Center on Wednesday will be very similar to his October 5th presentation to the Resource Development Council.
Interestingly, Thiessen’s speech occurs in the middle of the trading session, at 3:05pm EST (12:05PM PST), so we could surmise that NAK would need to release the news via PR prior to Mr. Thiessen’s speech. My reasoning is that the likelihood of a midday halt is low. Also, if one were to ask IR about how repartnering news will be released, IR will say it would be expected to come in an after-hours press release. Given that assumption, the latest possible PR would be next Tuesday morning (11/21) BMO. However, that morning coincides with when Ron Thiessen is in San Francisco. It is possible that the deal will be signed in San Francisco, but all the recent PRs have been about Alaska and lasering in on how the Pebble Project will help Alaskans and the Alaskan economy while protecting the environment. Thus, there is a much greater degree of likelihood that the deal signing will take place in Anchorage this week, as it did in 2007 when NAK partnered with Anglo.
While hypothetically possible to release the PR today AMC or over the weekend, it is much more likely that the deal signing is taking place today BMO or possibly a mid-day halt.
One other theory is that Mr. Thiessen would sign the deal Monday morning in Anchorage prior to flying to San Francisco for a late arrival at the conference, but still in time to deliver his speech on Tuesday at 12:05 local time. This would put the likely PR Monday AMC.
For more information about the Pebble Project and Northern Dynasty Minerals, please visit these related articles:
Northern Dynasty: Final Thoughts Before Consortium Partnership PR
Northern Dynasty Minerals: Valuation Considerations
Northern Dynasty Minerals Is A Multi Bagger
Disclosure: I am/we are long NAK.
Business relationship disclosure: This was a joint article written by Paul Lebo, CFA and myself.
About this article:Expand
Recommended for you:
I believe the coming week(s) will be very interesting in NAK land.
The wait has been long and hard but now, at last, things are looking up.
A little action today.
It needs to be uplisted for any kind of meaningful volume.
That is an oldie
This jumped huge today----
Today's Change 0.2095 (6,050.74%)
Bid (at 2:41pm ET) $0.213
Ask (at 2:41pm ET) $0.231
B/A Size 2500 x 2500
EPS (TTM) --
Shares Outstanding 97.5M
Market Cap 20.8M
Beta -0.204
Fridays my birthday.
That would would be a nice birthday present.
And flippers taking profit.
You mean Nov. 7th and the 21st.
Thanks.
Will the uplisting come this year?
Nothing is a sure thing otherwise we all would be billionaires.
Of course mining stocks are risky but I believe this is a good bet
even considering the environmentalist, HollyWood and liberal judges
trying to shut this project down.
Good luck to all longs.