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Very likely that Missling is not going to be the speaker when 15-month data is presented.
The slot is still Anavex's. It is still scheduled for 15-month data. Missling is perhaps not the one who will present. Perhaps the abstract was just a placeholder.
I'm telling you, when they released 12-month data everyone was panicking because they didn't have an abstract submitted ahead of time. Completely unwarranted hype. Just be patient and wait the two weeks and enjoy the wonderful news.
"Some posters" are incorrect. 15-month data will be presented at the conference as planned. Wayyyyy too much speculation happening around the withdrawal of the abstract.
Last conference, when there was no abstract submitted for the reveal of the 12-month data wild speculation occurred as well. Overly nervous investors were thinking it wasn't coming then either. It happened just as planned.
Should see a PR ahead of the conference with announcement regarding what to expect from all of the presentations at the conference.
Be cool everyone...good days ahead!!
IMO of course.
Two weeks to go till the big conference. Lots can happen in that time. I'm hoping we get these developments:
1) Nice rise to the $7-$8 range before the conference starts.
2) Awesome 15-month data at the conference.
3) An announcement regarding start of 2/3.
If that all falls into place we will be off to the races.
GLTA
For numerous reasons already mentioned on this board, I believe you are incorrect.
Someone dropped half a mil into AVXL at the closing bell. Interesting...
It won't last though...in just a few years 3-71 will replace it as the SOC.
Good problem to have!!!
In about 2 weeks, many speculators will look very foolish...
GO LONG NOW TO AVOID THE SHAME!!
AVXL is UP in after hours trading. Nice end to a nice day. Sophisticated investors are LONG in AVXL.
Do we close above $6 tomorrow or what??
Then what about a phase 2b who's primary endpoint has nothing to do with efficacy, and yet the exploratory efficacy (which you have to take for what it's worth) shows the best results for any potential OR approved AD treatment in history!?
Boy I sure am glad the phase 2/3 has a placebo control. We won't have to listen to this anymore. Although, sophisticated investors know that the lack of a placebo in this case is meaningless in reality.
Smell that??? Fried shorts! LOL!!
Speaking totally hypothetically... I think the price Siobhan over the next two weeks will ruin any idiots who might try to short this stock.
Go AVXL!!!
When is the investors call?? Link please??
Takes a long time.
The flurry of bashing and soft bashing on the web/Facebook/"the Street"is a good financial indicator. It's almost as good as TA. There's a lot to lose for shorts. They are desperate to throw cold water on the AVXL fire.
I agree totally with you about the non-impact of recent data releases. Might as well have not even happened. They were ignored by most.
Although I do expect data at the end of the month. I would think that if they weren't presenting data they would request the conference to remove the title of the slot as well. I feel they must have simply withdrawn the abstract.
Anavex still has all of their time slots. Maybe Missling isn't presenting. Maybe another Anavex rep is doing it. Maybe we will get 15-month data after all. The last conference when they revealed 12-month data they also had no abstract. Kind of becoming a pattern now.
Everyone just stay calm. Nothing says they are not having a presentation. Nothing says "no 15-month data". 2-73 is not being abandoned. All I can see is that IN ADDITION to 2-73 being a breakthrough discovery, we have another one (3-71) right on its heels.
Don't panic.
There were two slots that were supposed to address 15-month data. I may be wrong, but I don't believe an abstract is necessary in order to have a presentation/poster.
That abstract was posted in late December. I believe it was submitted merely as a placeholder. It has been withdrawn and unavailable for months now. I don't believe there was any way they could have actually had the 15-month data in hand before the end of December, much less have already crunched the data and written an abstract. If you want to know what it said, here it is. I saved it back on Dec 31, 2016.
"Abstract:
15-MONTHS SAFETY AND EXPLORATORY EFFICACY DATA OF ANAVEX 2-73 IN A PHASE 2A STUDY IN MILD-TO-MODERATE ALZHEIMER’S DISEASE PATIENTS
Aims
ANAVEX2-73, a selective sigma-1 and muscarinic receptor agonist was tested in a Phase 2a-study in patients with mild-to-moderate AD. Adverse Events (AEs) were recorded for assessment of safety and maximum tolerated dose (MTD). Cognitive (MMSE, Cogstate, QEEG/ERP) and the functional (ADCS-ADL) marker were measured so as to establish a functional relationship between dosing regimen and exploratory efficacy outcomes.
Method
Thirty-two AD patients 55-85 years old with MMSE 16-28 were recruited. After establishing MTD and dose-response all patients received ANAVEX2-73 between 10mg and 50mg daily orally and re-assessed every 3 months. For safety, mathematical modeling was fitted to the recorded AEs to establish the dose-risk relationship. For efficacy, statistical hypothesis tests were performed on cognitive and functional markers and compared to the corresponding baselines.
Results
Safety: ANAVEX2-73 demonstrated a favorable safety profile in AD patients. The most common AEs were grade 1. Positive unexpected therapeutic response events, such as improved mood, improved social engagement and increased independent activities were recorded.
Exploratory Efficacy: 15-months data demonstrate that ANAVEX2-73 preserves average MMSE and ADCS-ADL scores and shows benefits over baseline for Cogstate and QEEG/ERP.
Conclusion
The safety of ANAVEX2-73 was assessed and MTD was determined. Despite not optimal dosing, both cognitive and functional performance is sustained over at least 12 months, suggesting that the effect of the compound does not seem to worsen AD symptoms with repeated dosing. In a progressive degenerative disease this is considered a positive outcome. The data support further clinical development of ANAVEX2-73 and preparation for a larger confirmatory study is underway.
Co-authors
C. Missling 1
1, USA "
Anyone know if there is any way to stream tonight's panel discussion?
That'd be a nice problem to have!
It would be irresponsible on the part of the BP management to not at least have discussed acquiring AVXL. The decision may not be to pursue the idea, but they would have had to had the conversation by now.
It doesn't. It just summarizes the thinking behind my opinion that MMs control the pps right now. And they will continue to do so till news or other developments cause a pickup in volume due to new investors. That will bring current "off the table" shares back into play.
Looking good I'd say. Need some significant news to shake up the gridlock.
I think what is happening is that there are retail longs who own a huge portion of the shares. They are mostly rock solid and are not selling. That means that all of there shares are basically off the table.
Then you have the Tutes. They also are not fickle. They aren't going to be panicked into selling. That means that when you talk about volume their shares are also off the table.
Once you take away all those shares you are left with a VERY small number of shares that actually have the possibility of changing hands. Add to that the fact that the Tutes who are already in are probably happy with their positions and are not seeking to add right now. Plus the longs who are in would love to have more, but I imagine that most either have no dry powder or are also happy with their positions. So the only ones buying and selling are manipulators and shorts. You end up with low volume as we have seen for the past several days. This makes it much easier to manipulate pps.
So can someone who has a better understanding than me explain the significance of the April 1st abstract? In layman terms hopefully??
http://cmoffice.kenes.com/ADPD17/CM.NET.WebUI/CM.NET.WEBUI.scpr/SCPRfunctiondetail.aspx?confID=05000000-0000-0000-0000-000000000195&sesID=05000000-0000-0000-0000-000000037818&absID=07000000-0000-0000-0000-000000556569
Wow! Look what I found! (Wink, wink)
http://www.anavex.com/anavex-research-report-reveals-cardioprotective-action-of-sigma-1-receptor-agonists/
It's been posted on the anavex website since 2014.
What do you think about the possibility that the price action is just manipulation because of the options expire next Friday?
Not much mystery surrounding the 15-month data. It's good news per previously released info on the abstract.
Just games being played and weak hands bailing out in the meantime.
We will snap out of this wishy-washy pattern in the next week or so. Then it's off to the races leading into late March and beyond.
IMO
Try $700/share!
15-month data is not going to cause a huge exodus from other BPs and into AVXL. This data is good, great even, but just like all the other times before, more data from our P2 study isn't going to mean a hill of beans.
We're not going to $50 based on that. Until we start P2/3 AND we get, let's say, 12-week or possibly 6-month stellar data from that study...CONTINUE TO BE PATIENT.
We are not going to get the respect we deserve from BP or "mainstream" investors till we get to a new level of proof of concept.
Interesting, but I believe Missling said they were looking at starting phase 2 for Parkinson's this year. If they use 3-71 they would have to start at phase 1, right??
I agree with everything you're saying. It just comes down to your investment strategy I guess. You can make a lot of money both ways.
I enjoy your analysis...don't get me wrong. But as has already been stated by others here, news and catalysts will trump any analysis in the end. Good or bad, news is king.
If looking long-term picture, decide if you think it's going to be thumbs up or thumbs down in the end. Place your investments accordingly.
TA is only important if you are day-trading though. Looking at the big picture...the long picture... this company won't be tripped up by "resistance levels". They will all fall, one after the next, all the way to and through approval. And not just for AD, but for scores of CNS disorders.