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MYGN looks like a short here 24.50 to 24.70, stop 24.76.
Sam
Hi Bernard,
IBD rankings from 80 up to 99 in group strength, may not be exact percentile but close, the stocks in the 80 up in group strength are the strongest relative to other groups. There are 40 stock groups that make the cut weekly, and I do some averaging to dampen the volatility.
Sam
For those wondering about sector or group strength and how it relates to individual stocks, consider this; Fifteen weeks ago the HMO stock group climbed into the 80th percentile (starting week April 1st), and has been one of the top stock groups ever since....so what have the top stocks in that group done in that time?
ATH up 5%
CBZ up 115%
CVH up 20%
MME up 24.2%
PHSY up 33%
WLP up 12%
UNH up 14%
Sam
I'm getting as impatient as anyone looking forward to some short term stocks, but I don't see any value in lowering the strict criteria just to make a list from. Hopefully, the screening has kept us out of stocks that might be up one day then stop out the next. There is one potential breakout to watch today, ATTC. Also, only one breakdown short: AVT. And, six stocks to look for as a short, that are in a downtrend but have had a bounce: ATRX, CEPH, CMOS, ICOS, MEDI and MYGN.
Sam
http://www.savvy-trader.com
Absolutely no surprise from the Fed today. May get some bounces off the first wrong step.
Sam
Looks like PPP will have another strong day.
Still, no stocks made the short term screening, there was one potential breakdown short, MKSI (which we've seen as short before). There are five potential breakout stocks to watch tomorrow; DF, KSU, MAC, NYCB and PPP.
Sam
Computers, sometimes I wonder if they are worth the trouble...like today for example, after downloading a critical update over the weekend I have problems with Explorer today...
Two breakout alerts so far this morning...SIE and PPP
Sam
The group strength table is updated at:
http://www.savvy-trader.com/sectorrotation.htm
Sam
The market Friday still didn't produce any stocks that made the short term screening, nor did any shorts. There are nine potential breakout stocks to watch tomorrow; ANN, ATK, AVY, FTN, GPT, PPP, SIE, UNTD and WFC.
Sam
http://www.savvy-trader.com
Some thoughts on the economy:
Is there going to be a double dip recession? After last weeks economic reports the question is facing everyone who keeps track of the economy, and is lurking in the shadows for those that don't. While many on Wall Street are saying the market has predicted this economic weakness, implying that the previous contrary movement of stocks and the economy shows the market to be correct.
On the other hand, I'm thinking that it is quite possible that stocks themselves, pulled down by factors outside the economy, like faith in the markets themselves, is the primary reason the economy has pulled back down.
At the end of earnings season there is little evidence that most companies have a fundamental problem, so there is much less reason to think that the sale of stock has anything to do with a company's future outlook. But, when the earnings and revenue numbers are rightly or wrongly brought to question about companies that are almost institutions, and foreigners, as well, begin to think our markets are a big scam and pull their funds....; True economics and individual company results have little to do with predicting a recession as much as potentially causing one.
Consumers will buy what they need, and otherwise buy depending on how they feel about their own financial stability. Companies will build products to meet that consumer demand, yet themselves are associating their own stock price with consumer demand, which may or may not be true. We no doubt have been saturated with cell phones, PC's and the like, yet our disposable income remains very high.
So do we double dip? I have no idea, nor do I believe anyone else does either. We need at least another month of data, and a market that doesn't anchor the economy. I suspect that if we do return to a recession it will be harder to pull out of this time, but the good news is that it is likely much of the downside risk has been seen in the stock markets. So the double dip recession will be more about economic data, and less about stock prices.
Sam
WLP ends as our call of the day, dang close to 4 points. Next week should be an interesting one.
Sam
Looks like we aren't going to make anymore trades this week. Nice ending on the week, hopefully we'll start seeing some short term picks next week.
Have a wonderful weekend, we are going to Denver tomorrow for the day but we'll be back Saturday evening and Sunday.
Sam
Not one breakout alert this morning, we had the bounce on AMGN and WLP....and bought more XRAY. But that is about it so far.
Sam
Market risk is posted. Still, no stocks made the short term screening. There are four nice looking potential breakout stocks to watch today; GILD, HMA, JEC and RESP. No shorts screened out.
Sam
http://www.savvy-trader.com
Having server problems this evening so things are going slower than usual, sorry.
Sam
I'm thinking this should be enough to put the screened stock ratio in the positive, a nice day all around.
Sam
CCR looks to do nicely today, I bought the XRAY alert at 40.03.
Sam
CCR made a nice test of 52, that would have been another opportunity.
Sam
Two breakout alerts so far this morning CCR and RKY.
There are four potential breakout stocks to watch today; CCR, FOE, RKY and XRAY. No shorts screened out for Thursday.
Sam
Maybe this will get some short term stocks on the screening, a very strong close is a good sign for the future.
Sam
Only two stocks on the screening, even though the market was strong (I missed much of the day today, and are about to go out again). ECL showed up on the breakout screening for a long, and PRE as a short.
Sam
One potential short now is ACE, a short at $30.90 or so, with a stop $31.26.
Sam
Open looks strong, I might look for some bounces but nothing to hold for very long.
Sam
I would hope that Congress would not assume that war will fix the economy or the market, it seems rather risky strategy that could pull the market down before seeing a benefit, and that might just put the market back to where it was prior to any attack.
I don't think the market is reflecting the economy or individual company fundamentals, but rather a loss of faith, which it in itself is bringing pulling the economy down.
Which brings me back to the war issue; will a war bring faith back? Will the following?
Cut corporate taxes to allow companies to shift taxes to dividends, which would up the valuation of the balance sheet and stock price. Eliminate the taxes on dividends.
Allow the public, but not company insiders, to buy stock during the next year without paying capital gains taxes.
Increase the capital loss to $6,000 this year and $10,000 next.
Prosecute company fraud. The laws are now on the books.
These are a few of my thoughts, and I'm sure there are additional things that would restore faith. Ideas?
Sam
We had CREE as a short too. Worked out today anyway.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=445049
There are a few additional shorts that screened out for Tuesday, in addition to those we had today, which also repeated on the screening.
DAL and MLHR both screened out on a potential breakdown screen, so wait for them to breakdown before considering, just like a potential breakout.
ACE, CNA, CVTX, ICOS, PRE, SPC and XL all showed up on the reverse Category 3 screen, which means they have had a rally and may return to the local low.
Sam
A little woman's intuition might have a better feel than anything else. Number's look bad today. Hope you're right my screen is running out of red paint!......now wouldn't a nice witch be able to do a spell or something? Mix up something with a little green <g...
Sam
Whew, I was looking for a down market, but this is getting ridiculous! 6 out of the 9 short picks ended down over 1, OSIP down over 2. I don't figure there will be any long picks on the screening again this evening either....
Sam
And they can charge more than we do <g?
Jul 29 2002 Up/Down BSG: CSFB reits STRONG BUY
You'd have to think we are getting to the end of this selling when a screen of 9 shorts has 6 down over a dollar. I don't think I'd add any more short without seeing a special opportunity the rest of the day.
You'd have to think we are getting to the end of this selling when a screen of 9 shorts has 6 down over a dollar. I don't think I'd add any more short without seeing a special opportunity the rest of the day.
Most of these shorts were easy to enter today, otherwise the gold GFI, and restaurant stocks are up.
Sam
Look at the restaurants this morning, CAKE, DRI,PNRA, PFCB, WEN..
Last weeks commentary:
With all the discussion of risk there is another risk that can't be over looked, yet is also suppose to be unpredictable, this is event risk. Last September event risk was brought to the forefront, however, the market was already in a down trend so hopefully traders were somewhat prepared. As is most, if not all, the companies whose stock have been hit by an "event."
A company bankruptcy was normally an event risk that was reserved for share holders of that company, but anymore, the entire market has become so sensitive to anything suspicious about one company, that it can bring the whole market down. So like another terrorist attack, people are trying to anticipate the next company that will once again bring on a wave of stock selling to the good as well as bad companies. And like a terrorist warning, we have been given notice that we are at code yellow.
So here we sit, waiting to see what companies certify their accounting by August 14, as though it was a potential attack on our system, is it?
While this recent amount of corporate seems unprecedented, I at least, in over 35 years of following the markets, I don't ever remember a time where the public's perception of the capitalist system is that of "crooks and thieves." However, in my years I've met with outstanding CEO's, who while no doubt wanted to expand their company and make money, they are also ethical people. And within the broad market there is only a very few that have the potential of causing an "event risk." There are hundreds of stocks in retail, health, defense, oil, etc., and yes, even technology that make legitimate money and keep accurate books.
But yet again, we are talking perception, and as long as the public doesn't trust corporate America, they won't be returning to invest in that arena. So regardless if the August 14 certification has teeth or not, it is the perception that is going to count. And as long as the public is suspicious, corporate fraud will be an event risk that impacts the whole market, not just the single company committing fraud.
And while the Government can try to patch the perception up over the short term, it is going to take the corporations along with the accounting firms themselves to reestablish faith in the system. I expect them to stand up and do just that.
Might I also suggest that the Government also heed the warning and clean up their accounting. By what I've seen, for example, the accounting for social security funds is very similar to an Enron shell corporation.....um now there is an event risk to pay attention to, falling dollar anyone?
Have a good week,
Sam
Sam@savvy-trader.com
Shorts have been hard to get into lately, strangely enough the two I watched Friday (NPSP and VRTX) both started up after the open and they made entering both easy and gut wrenching <g. The pharmaceuticals have been strong recently, and even more screened out for shorts on Monday.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=442993
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=443445
Sam
The list of shorts for Monday was rather relatively large, 9 stocks on the screening. Two semi related, CREE and SLAB, and the rest biotech/pharmaceutical, ALXN, HGSI, ITMN, MEDI, NPSP, OSIP, and VRTX.
The bio/pharm stocks have had the most run up the recent rally, with the weakest fundamentals supporting that move. I still believe that those groups are going to be one of the strongest the rest of this year, but if we are going to see continued sliding in the market these have some room below them.
Sam
I ran both the short term and the breakout screens, not much of a surprise, but no stocks showed up on either. I'll look at some shorts next.
Sam