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Accumulation
fantastic post. been there, done that...
i just bought more. buy the dips
with a filling like that. you will need not luck, but a miracle. LOL
Do you have the values for July, August and the rest of September? TIA
whats up with corn up so much, anyone know?
Explain that to the shorts...LOL
Looks like a cross
its all BS
Even if you allocate 50% for taxes, that's a net $8.75M available to shareholders.
Neil stated on the CC: Our effective tax rate for the quarter was 40% and we expect it to remain at similar rates in future quarters.
Here you go, 2 more things I forgot in my calcuations: the 6-7c on plant improvements and corn oil revenue (no idea what that will amount to?). Be nice to see your work on it when you have it done.
As for assuming a repeat in performance, well I think that the best we can do. Just work on those factors we are certain on and leave the rest (selling price and input costs) as "all things being equal" as guessing is like playing in the casino as you well put it.
OK, forgot about higher plant % ownership going forward, but have no idea how to account for that... anyone? TIA
Also as a side note, I am too dumb to figure out this myself as I am no GAAP expert, so need to ask. I see that for the last 2 quarters PEIX stated "adjusted net income" as an amount where they would back up the fair value adjustments and add them to the net income after taxes. For instance last Q they state:
Net income was $3.7 million or $0.15 per diluted share
Adjusted net income was $8.1 million or $0.33 per diluted share
This is so bevause they added up the 4,378 of FVA.
BUT shouldnt they have had to add the 4.3 to the income BEFORE taxes and then apply the 40% rate to account for "adjusted net income" , thus giving a lower figure of net income? I know logic and accounting principles do not go hand in hand and this may be the case here, or I am missing something ?
Worked through the last 4 published quarters of PEIX and re-worked them doing the following:
- Get rid of Loss on extinguishments of debts
- Eliminate Fair value adjustments and warrant inducements
- New Interest expense of 1.1 M per quarter
- O/S of 25.3 M (assuming conversion of eisting warrants)
Once done this we could take a glimpse on what actual net income for PEIX would look like IF (big if, yes) margins remain the same for the next 11 months as they were in the previous 4 quarters.
What I get is: 3Q14: 25c, 2Q14: 59c, 1Q14: 79c, 4Q13: 33c so 1.96 total
Slap a 10 times PE and we get a 20 bucks stock easy.
Current 12m trailing PE for GPRE is 9,79 and REX´s 8,54. But this is after a smackdown on ethanol margins and very negative sentiment on ethanol stocks.
GPRE balance sheet is in worse condition to PEIX´s and REX´s.
REX a better buy than GPRE. PEI would be trading now at 7.20 forward earnings PE.
All in all 10 PE seems doable. PEIX should be the better buy of the 3 considering the forthcoming rail transport situation which will benefit PEIX big time as opposed to GPRE and REX.
Comments anyone? Does this look reasonable or did I miss something?
Hi I need little help revisiting PEIX. Can someone please give me a quick run down on the following:
- What is the range consensus estimate for earnings next quarter ( going to be published next week I believe, is that right?) on this board ?
- And vs. what corn / ethanol spread we are talking about for 3Q ?
real good stock just started on CSE this week.... Monday
pot, pot pot one....
sorry but Next Gen aint nuthing but trash....
anyone who does not get it I am sorry for:
Harry Barr co = Pump and dump crap
Harry Ag experience = Planting pumpkins with daddy
RMP.TO, SGY.TO
ray1 u still dont seem to get it: Formcap IS very properly and efficiently run, money dissapearing from your pocket and onto the crooks pocket is goes
Anything good on the 10-Q? Give us 2 cents.... Meanwhile I wonder what is the SEC for and why these scammers are still not in jail? What a country you have!!!! LOL
Whats the SEC doing? These dudes belong in JAIL !!!
Warning about FRMC was always an easy job... all the red flags pointing to a scam were there.... Difficult part was for door knobs to actually listen!!!
ROFL. Guess pigs cant fly after all uh???
Drilling will be delayed till pigs can fly.
Thank you pal. Have just communicated with Kelly now
Awesome. Thanks! Can I use a copy of this to try to push these UK online clinic scammers into getting my money back to me???
I have to say this is one of the best boards I have ever seen for great DD, if it wasnt for the few usual clowns which sadly we also have to bear with here....
I am in and out of stocks everyday u jerk, what gives. I am a pro trader unlike you. I dont owe nothing to no one or any stock. I give great DD and I get shit thrown back to me from clowns ....
yeah... what you wanted me to do? run down the street with the UPS parcel still unopened looking for a hooker like a degenerate?? ROFLMAO
What was the other website that someone said would ship from Netherlands? Might try that one this time....
you are nuts. lol
what a bunch of ballooney. lol
i ll just do that next... new order and no freeze baby! ser what happens
This is a scam P&D crap. I warned everyone long time ago. I became fascinated with this story cause I accidentelt witnessed first hand the workings of that German outfit that got this POS to 2 bucks or 200M mkt cap, LOL. They all should be in JAIL by NOW !!!!
just once.
I am sure cold chain was f'up wih transport.
I will be more than happy to try out again once room temp is available,
but for now i wont try again and I am out of APRI
good luck to all, great board u guys have here ( a rare bird on InvestorsHub)
Sorry all for the late reply regarding my "trip to the moon"....
I am sorry to say it did NOT work out.
Cold chain version is real trouble.... now I see why Abott not launching in Canada....
the thing got to me in bad shape , also the dispenser I was not that enthusiastic about....the plunger on the accudose did not go smoothly, it was very hard to press
and the liquid content a lot of it got stuck on the wall of th accudose, as I said it lookd like it got in bad shape due to temp issues
this is a major failure I am sorry to say
PUF ( Chlormet Technologies Inc.)
What a great couple days we’ve had here at Alphastox! The junior market is definitely picking up. Alphastox subscribers have enjoyed two great wins in the last month. Aveda Energy (TSXV:AVE) is a name that has done extremely well since we first launched coverage on the name. the stock closed at $5.20 yesterday giving our subscribers over a 20% return in just over a month on steady growth and positive news. Not only has Aveda done well for us, but another one of our companies just got bought out last week-Crocotta Energy (TSX:CTA). CTA just closed a major transaction with Long Run Exploration (TSX:LRE) for a whopping $357 million dollars giving subscribers a 70% return since first being featured on Alphastox! Now if that’s not good enough, one of our other features, a company that has probably generated our subscribers the biggest return since we first initiated coverage, Chormet Technologies (TSXV:CMT), is coming back to trade on the CSE under the symbol PUF.
In case you don’t remember, Chlormet Technologies (TSXV:CMT) was a company we initiated coverage on when the stock was trading at around $0.20. The next day, the stock jumped to $0.465 and $0.59 the day after. Unfortunately the company had been halted for the last couple months because of a potential change in business but they should be trading very shortly here under the symbol PUF on the CSE and we couldn’t be happier about the opportunity presented to us here today.
If everything comes together and the numbers are proven, this truly could be one of the most exciting stories I’ve seen in a long time. Not only do they have an option to acquire AAA Heidelberg, a commercial facility in Ontario that is in the process of getting their MMPR license through Health Canada, but the company just announced this morning that it has entered into an exclusive agreement with a licensed grow facility in Washington State called Babcock Bench Farms LLC (BBF). The marijuana market in Washington is absolutely massive and these guys already have their license in hand, so there’s no way we can shy away from this opportunity.
If you want to check it out for yourself, BBF has been approved under license Number 412996 for a Tier 3 marijuana Producer and Processor license in Washington State. I have added a lengthy summary of BBF below, but here is the essence of why I am so excited about the potential of this deal. BBF’s master growers anticipate production of between 1,350 and 2,150 lbs.of dried marijuana per quarter from their approved 21,000 square foot facility. According to the Rand Report, (a report which outlined the consumption of marijuana in Washington State based on a web-survey), the median price per pound of marijuana goes for around $2,000. Just by connecting the numbers ourselves, we can all see the massive income potential PUF has.
The best part about this deal is that the initial investment could be paid back within the first year. Here’s how: the facility should cost around $2.5 million in total. Chlormet charges $200,000/month in rent to the facility because it already owns the land in Washington. Therefore, if all the ducks line up in a row, the investment proposes a one-year payback period as well as a massive revenue stream from the sale of marijuana in the amount which could far exceed the company’s current market cap.
I have included a more detailed overview of Babcock Bench Farms LLC and the medical marijuana market in Washington below to give you a little more insight about this new industry. I highly encourage you to have a read through. Make sure to keep PUF.C on your radar screens now! This could be a very exciting story for subscribers to keep an eye on going forward.
Medical Marijuana in Washignton:
Currently, the principal who owns Babcock Bench Farms LLC has been involved in the medical marijuana industry in Washington State for a very long time now. The industry is highly regulated, with individuals only being able to grow once they obtain cards from physicians and there are strict limits in place regarding the amount of marijuana that can be grown and carried by cardholders. The current industry of medical dispensaries in the state is non-profit, with customers paying by donation and said donations being distributed to growers. Neither the State nor any local jurisdiction currently taxes these medical marijuana transactions.
In November 2012, Initiative 502 was passed in Washington State, legalizing further uses of marijuana; it allows marijuana to be available for use in small amounts by most legal adults. Three licenses can be applied for: producer, processor, and retailer. I-502 calls for the state to now tax every marijuana related transaction at 25%. Transactions between producers, processors, and retailers would all be taxed at this amount; the final consumer would also have to pay a tax of 25%. Individuals must apply for each license separately, however, one may apply for both a producer and processor license in order to avoid a single 25% tax.
Under I-502, the state government has allotted 2 million square feet of land to be used in order to produce marijuana. This space is broken down into three “production tiers,” a Tier 1 application consists of up to 2,000 square feet of space, a Tier 2 application consists of up to 10,000 square feet, and a Tier 3 application consists of up to 30,000 square feet. Applicants may apply for a maximum of 3 spaces in each tier, resulting in up to 6,000 square feet of space in Tier 1, 10,000 square feet in Tier 2, and 30,000 feet in Tier 3.
There was a 30-day period in which individuals could apply for space and the total amount that was applied for exceeded the 2 million square feet available. Therefore, the state declared that the most space any applicant would be approved for was up to 70% of how much they applied for on a single license.
I-502
I-502 was approved with 55.7% of the population agreeing to pass the initiative; 1,724,209 people voted yes, while 1,371,235 voted no. It is likely that not all of the adults who voted in favour of the initiative are marijuana users, but that many are and that many marijuana users also did not vote at all, making it possible for the number of users within the state to exceed the 1,724,209 individuals who voted “yes”. However, it is difficult to ascertain how many actual users there are and how many will consume when the product is sold legally within the market. Two reports, done by the Office of Washington State Finance Management and the Rand Corporation, have attempted to determine what the appetite will be.
The Office of Washington State Finance Management’s 2012 report that stated that there are approximately 336,000 marijuana users within the state, a number much lower than the amount of people who voted in favour of I-502, and that total consumption would amount to 187,666 pounds per annum. This 187,666 pounds amounts to marijuana that is smoked and also consumed through edibles such as cookies or brownies and drinking glycerin based products.
The second report, conducted by the Rand Corporation, states that the Washington Office of Financial Management’s figures are too low. It suggests that instead of 85 metric tons (MT), actual consumption in 2013 was around 135-225 MT. With a 90 percent confidence interval, the amount was more around 120–175 MT, with a median estimate of approximately 175 MT. The study notes that it is difficult to ascertain how much surveys differ from actual consumption because most of the relevant studies on the topic are over a decade old and since then, NSDUH methodology has improved. As well, there has been an increase in marijuana use during the 2000s. In addition, national and regional studies may not be relevant to Washington State. The study also asserts that 50% of marijuana consumption within Washington State is concentrated in King, Snohomish, and Pierce counties, with King County accounting for 30 percent and Snohomish and Pierce each accounting for around 11 percent. There is not a lot of literature that currently provides information on how much marijuana users consume per day, especially when trying to focus on a specific area and time (ex: Washington in 2013); more emphasis typically remains on counting users. The Rand Corporation has used the available literature in conjunction with data from its web based consumption survey in order to estimate that those who use marijuana 21 or more times per day consume 1.2-1.9 grams per a typical day use. Finally, it concludes that there is no ideal dataset providing information on the potency of marijuana consumed in Washington. There is no way to take a random sample of marijuana produced or consumed but the current marketplace suggests that lower potency forms do not consist of a large share of the Washington market, probably a smaller share than nationwide.
Truly, no one knows what demand the marketplace will hold. These reports do not consider that higher quality products will always elicit high demand, something management is already aware of as their products currently provoke high demand. Growers who produce high quality products will be able to sell said products more easily. I-502 does not limit the amount of plants that can be grown under a single license, allowing a licensee to grow as much as they possibly can. If the product is of high quality, demand should exceed the possible supply that the licensee can produce. Since there is no currently established market, the company has based projections on how much it can produce. From experience, it feels that there will continue to be a high demand for its products and that because of said demand, all that it produces will be sold.
Babcock Bench Farms LLC
Babcock Bench Farms LLC applied for three Tier 3 licenses under I-502, resulting in a total application for 90,000 square feet. Because of the 70% limit announced by the Washington State Liquor Board (WSLCB), the total space that the applicant will receive is 21,000 square feet of “canopy area”. The current opportunity available to BB Farms LLC is to build a 25,000 square foot “turn-key” production facility with the 21,000 square feet of “canopy area” incorporated into this amount.
As always, if you have any questions, please do not hesitate to get in touch with me anytime. I look forward to hearing from you.
Best,
Etienne
Operation moon landing postponed to Saturday night.... Sorry guys!!!