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4,000 illegals times $70,000 is $2,800,000.
Off by a bundle, my friend
Actually, it's $280,000,000.
Some of the drop in oil prices is caused by the strong dollar.
LPI Definitely will continue to watch it as it interests me. I only made lunch money on it and only one lunch. Best of luck to you and others in it.
LPI True about the company being able to buy back shares now but I think that also means that Warburg can resume their sales too with 2 of their people on the BOD.
I decided to take a tiny gain and sell on the nice run-up today.
LPI All those Warburg shares are what has kept me from buying a nice chunk of shares in this one. Fund IX was established in 2005 and is being liquidated. Fund X was established in 2007 and may also be going into liquidation before long. I doubt he Warburg would simply move the shares into a newer fund as their forte is buying equity interests in private companies.
Fund IX holds about 9 million LPI shares and X holds 40 million shares so we are talking about a lot of shares. Some speculate that IX may have already liquidated their shares but there has been no public disclosure of that. Also, since Warbug officers sit on the board of LPI, I don't think they are allowed to sell shares as we near earnings report.
I've also been following the saga on SA and would like to know more facts. It is mostly conjecture at this point.
TRTN Yep, I sure liked CAI's PR much better. No surprise, that the stock is flat in early trading as investors try to decipher it. I see it as a good report with the Q4 guidance has it coming in about the same as what strong Q3 was.
There's been a recent surge in illegal border crossings NOW including illegal drug runners and other criminals.
the troops are needed to help with that now especially as the border security needs to start preparing for all those caravans.
The American voters are all watching as the liberals in congress prevent a legislative solution to this huge and growing problem.
NRZ With all the distractions in this highly volatile market, I had actually forgot about their sneaky habit of doing capital raises after a price run-up. Seeing them do it again indicates that they still have good avenues to invest in which is a positive and keeps those juicy earnings and dividends coming our way. I also added here.
Nice to see that Nov and Dec are the strongest months historically.
Notwithstanding our impressive 2 day rally, I'm definitely looking forward to saying good riddance to October.
CAI is flying on a nice earnings beat. They also dismissed investor concerns about tariffs and that 2020 emissions requirement in their CC. Bodes well for TRTN when they report friday morning.
From the CC:
As we mentioned in our press release we do not think the imposition of tariffs on China by the U.S. or the IMO 2020 regulations will have a long-term effect on container demand. We believe that the potential for permanent imposition of tariffs will result in supply chain disruption as manufacturers’ source products from other regions creating logistical bottlenecks and increasing the overall demand for containers. We are already observing some surprising equipment demand in Asia outside of China that implies to us some cargo is moving from those countries that may have otherwise been shipped from China.
Moreover, we do not believe that the imposition of IMO 2020 regulations requiring shipping lines to deploy scrubbers on their ships or consume low sulfur fuel will negatively impact our business. The new regulations are not a surprise to the marketplace and everyone involved shipping lines and shippers are discussing and preparing for the additional expense. In my opinion it is not a major concern.
So, what is the worse month historically?
I'll guess, October.
MU That commentary from the analyst pretty much mirrors what Samsung said along with their record earnings report this morning. Samsung expects a soft landing with a recovery in memory prices led by increasd server demand after Q1 2019. They're also slashing capex by 27% next year which will reduce future supply. If Samsung is right, that means a recovery is about 6 months away, Many think the market looks ahead by 6 months, so MU may well have seen its low recently.
The South Korean technology giant said it expected a quarter-on-quarter earnings decline in the fourth quarter due to weak demand for memory chips and higher smartphone marketing spend during the year-end holiday season.
“Looking further ahead to 2019, earnings are forecast to be weak for the first quarter due to seasonality, but then strengthen as business conditions, particularly in the memory market, improve,” Samsung said in a statement.
FTSI Surprised to see this one up as much as $1 today after trading down about 8% in premarket on an earning and rev miss and looking even worse for Q4 too. I'll chalk it up to a strong market today.. Sold my shares.
How about Halloween based on our tax system then: 10% of the parents have to buy 90% of the candy and then half the parents don't pay anything at all.
Hopefully those strong numbers and guidance from INTC will help the chip sector tomorrow.
MHO was one of very few green sprouts in my portfolio today. This homebuilder announced a beat in earnings and revs and backlog of orders was well up too. There seems to be a strong disconnect between builder results and the weak now home sales announced by the government this morning. Market cap is also only 76% of book value now.
2018 Third Quarter Highlights:
New contracts increased 6% to a third quarter record 1,302 contracts
Backlog sales value increased 25% to a third quarter record of $1.1 billion, and backlog units increased 20% to 2,846
Revenue increased 19% to a third quarter record of $568 million
Homes delivered increased 13% to a third quarter record 1,422 homes
Net income increased by 31% to a third quarter record of $29.3 million from $22.3 million in 2017
Diluted earnings per share increased 58% to $1.01 from $0.64 in 2017, which included a $2.3 million equity adjustment due to the redemption of preferred shares
Shareholders' equity reached an all-time record of $835 million, a 16% increase from a year ago, with book value per share of $29.69
CBL Mgmt hinted in their last CC that they might cut the dividend in November. The stock dropped a lot after they said that so it could even be that the SP might recover some with the uncertainty out of the way. If they do reduce the dividend, it also should actually be a positive for the preferreds.
From the CC:
“On the dividend, we wanted to communicate that is a possibility. We don't want to surprise the market with something in November without giving a heads up that we're going to look at it over the next few months as we have better visibility into 2019 taxable income, 2019 budgets for NOI and FFO. There are a lot of moving parts to use your terminology that go into that, including the NOI results, the recovery and leasing as we look ahead. And also, transactions that impact taxable income whether the dispositions or our lender transactions. So we just wanted to make sure that the market realizes, we're going to look at it and also that if we can reduce the dividend and use those funds to fund the redevelopments to reduce debt, that is our most efficient source of capital and we'll take advantage of that opportunity to do so.”
PHM Homebuilder stocks definitely have been disconnected from reality as investors keep dumping due to interest rate concerns. Recent talk about a slowdown in the economy would actually help this sector imo.
Besides an earnings and revenue beat, PHM also reported an increase in the backlog of new orders. So much for the buyers disappearing on mortgage rate increases.
From the earnings PR:
"The critical underpinnings that have supported a slow but steady housing recovery, including a strong economy, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and limited home inventory, remain solidly in place," continued Marshall. "While buyer concerns around affordability and rising mortgage rates appear to have impacted near term market dynamics, traffic trends indicate that buyer interest levels are still high and that the overall housing recovery remains on track."
Third Quarter Results
Home sale revenues for the third quarter increased 25% over the prior year to $2.6 billion. The higher revenues for the period reflect a 17% increase in closings to 6,031 homes, combined with a 7%, or $27,000, increase in average sales price to $427,000.
Home sale gross margin for the third quarter was 24.0%, which is up 10 basis points over the prior year and consistent with the Company's reported gross margin for the second quarter of 2018. Homebuilding SG&A expense for the quarter was $253 million, or 9.8% of home sale revenues, compared with $237 million, or 11.6% of home sale revenues, in the prior year. Operating margin for the third quarter expanded 190 basis points over last year to 14.2%.
Net new orders for the third quarter increased 1% to 5,350 homes. The value of third quarter net new orders was $2.3 billion, which is an increase of 1% over the prior year. For the quarter, the Company operated out of 843 communities compared with 778 communities in the third quarter of 2017.
Unit backlog for the quarter was up 3% over the third quarter of last year to 11,164 homes, with backlog value increasing 5% to $4.9 billion. The average price of homes in backlog increased 2% over the prior year to $440,000.
Just heard this is looking to be the worst month for the Nasdaq since the huge meltdown 10 years ago. As for the Dow,it is down over 2100 points since it's high reached last Oct. 3.
Can't wait to see October in the rear view mirror.
I heard a comment by a commentator on FBN that 80% of trading is now controlled by algorythms! There's no way us slow humans can keep up with that.
CBL If you are right about the dividend not being decreased, then the common is a heck of a buy here, yielding 23%. Obviously many think a cut is coming.
Btw, nice buy on your CBL.D preferred this morning. Up about 4% on your buy already. That's a big move on a preferred stock.
CBL Retailers are having a tough time as evidenced by Sears filing bankruptcy today. CBL has something like 40 Sears stores in its portfolio but they account for less than 1% of revs. CBL will have some big redevelopment expenses repositioning those old stores and others for new tenants. I expect CBL will substantially reduce its common dividend but I agree with skillz that the preferred (D and E series) dividends look safe with lots of coverage.
The warnings about increasing storm frequency always seem to happen after major hurricanes. Interesting that from 2006 to 2016, Florida had a relatively quiet period in hurricane activity. According to Wikipedia, no major hurricanes hit Florida during that period. Contrast that with the years 1944-1950 when 7 major hurricanes hit Florida. Looks like fewer storms rather than more of the big ones to me.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Florida_hurricanes
Scientists can't even agree whether we are seeing global warming or global cooling. Maybe, the climate has always been changing and will continue to do so, with or without the effects of mankind.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/peterferrara/2013/05/26/to-the-horror-of-global-warming-alarmists-global-cooling-is-here/#272646724dcf
As for increasing CO2 levels: We should all go plant a few trees to reduce it. Not send trillions of dollarsto the people who made up the Paris treaty, a giant wealth redistribution scheme. That would be the mother of all storms to the US economy.
Good article, I have no doubt that CTAs aka computer trading algorythms were a big factor in the volatility last week. It does seem odd to me that the small and micro caps suffered more since I doubt that the big boys have their computers rigged to also sell them.
Reading the omments, I found this one to be interesting, keeping in mind that most believe it is concerns over continuing Fed tightening that caused the current sell-off:
Today 's Fed discount rate is 2.75 ..
Fed discount rate at Sept ,2004 was also 2.75 and went up from there all the way to 6.25 around June,2006 ... same period S&P 500 went up 30% !
This is history !
The Fed increased the discount rate by 400 basis points over 21 months back then. The Fed expects to raise the discount rate only 100-125 basis points over the next 15 months and the market is in panic mode now?
There you go again, beating that old russian connection dead horse. I also didn't see anywhere that shows any connection between Jefferson Consulting and Russian Oligarchs. Even if there is, I don't see Susan Collins husband showing up in their list of officers anymore.
Maybe, at the ripe old age of 79, her husband is retired now and Susan Collins made those statements about Kavanaugh based on her own due diligence. There also was no corroborating evidence for Ford's allegations, even from her friends. Maybe Ford either made an honest mistake or maybe she made it up to destroy a man whose nomination she didn't like.
You're right, the founders never knew how many people each state would have over 200 years later, but they did have the foresight to set it up so the most populous states would not have undue influence on all government policy, at least in the Senate. Those old guys sure had a lot of foresight, didn't they...
The population of NYC alone is equal to the combined populations of Alaska, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming, Montana, West Virginia and Vermont. And yet these uneducated, obese, toothless, opioid addicted mindless jackasses get to choose the direction of the entire country for decades to come.
So, do you consider Bernie Sanders, the socialist US Senator from Vermont, to by uneducated, toothless etc?
Members in the House are elected based on population and Senators are elected based on 2 per state...period. That's the way it has been and the way our constitution calls for. Sure glad we have a constitution that has stood the test of time.
Dow futures had been down as much as 400 points so it's settling down now. Rick, the bond guy on CNBC, made a good comment. He said the bond market acts like the adult in the room and the stock market acts like the child. Bond market has been slowly adjusting to higher rates while the stock market reacts violently to the concerns of the day. Lately, there seems to be four concerns: inflation, rising rates, china tariffs, and the mid-terms. Of course those have all been out there for quite some time but the stock market suddenly decided to throw a tantrum over them.
I'm looking forward to the earnings season arriving soon so the big child can focus on that again. DAL for example, in the beaten up airline sector, just reported a strong Q and went from down 2% to up 2% premarket.
Dow down 424 points and still heading south. The algorhythms are sure hitting sell buttons now. Last I heard, the Fed planned one more increase in December and then three more next year. That's a total of 1% which shouldn't kill the economy as its still a historical low rate. Or did I miss a change in that?
Well, of course many nations preferred Trump's predecessor who continually apologized for America's strength and looked the other way when other nations didn't contribute their fair share. If I were in their shoes, I would have preferred Obama too.
We finally have a President who cares about America's interests. That is a good thing, not a bad one, IMO.
Ethanol refiners President announcing that 15% ethanol is being approved all year round tonight. The Prez of PEIX was just on FBN talking about how much this will help the ethanol industry. Watched the stock shoot up as he spoke. (now up 12%.)
I picked up some GPRE as a play on this as it hasn't perked up yet.
CAI announced a new 3 million share buyback. That is large and about 15% of shares.
CAI and TRTN have been beat up the last couple of weeks after Wells Fargo issued their downgrade of them. The analyst blamed tariffs and new fuel regulations in 2020.
Interesting that after China announced a 25% retalitory tariff on US soybeans, China turned to buying soybeans from Brazil at a premium. Brazil, in turn, has been importing US soybeans and then re-selling them to China with no tariff. Tariffs have actually increased the transit needs for some products like this.
I also find it hard to believe that the new 2020 fuel regulations will hurt companies who buy, sell, and lease containers. Either the market will figure out a way to meet the new regulations or its implementation will be delayed. I can't see world trade grinding down because of these new rules.
LEN, another crazy but typical reaction to a strong report.
I should just turn over my portfolios to my wife to manage. Last August, she bought some TLRY the day of their IPO at $22 and change. The company is establishing itself in Canadian marijuana, which is being legalized this month up there, I tried to warn her off, saying it was WAY overpriced.
She didn't listen to me (of course) and now the stock trades at about $140 share. It has been as high as $300. She's got some huge paper profits on this one right now. I still say sell it but, as usual, she's ignoring my advise.
It's a crazy world out there.
LEN Great report (again). Many consider LEN to be a blue chip of the industry so hopefully this pre market rally will hold and even help the entire sector today.
Positive comments from the PR too:
Lennar's orders, a key indicator of future revenue for homebuilders, jumped 51.6 percent to 31,473 homes in the third quarter.
"The basic underlying fundamentals of the housing industry of low unemployment, higher wages and low inventory levels remain favorable and are likely to support longer-term strength in the housing market," Executive Chairman Stuart Miller said in a statement.
I don't think trade talks with China will go much of anywhere, at least until after the midterm elections. If the Dems take over congress, Trump will have his hands full dealing with that and not much time and capital left for China.
It sure does seem odd that the small caps are weak since the the new nafta agreement was announced. Most of the small caps are focused on north america operations while the mostly international companies that make up the Dow just made a new all-time high.
Lately, the market hasn't made all that much sense to me.
Home builders sure lived to their lousy historical performance average in the month of September. Now that September is over, I wonder how the group historically does in October and through Q4?
Home builder stocks and tax loss selling. You may be right. I've been thinking about it too but for the time being I'm holding as most of these are so cheap now. Here's some comments from Merrill analyst:
The seemingly relentless pressure on the homebuilder and building product stocks
continued this week despite encouraging company-specific news from DHI/FOR and KBH
and solid industry data for new home sales and home prices. DHI’s 75% owned and
publicly traded land developer, FOR,filed a $500mm equity shelf registration, which we
view as significant and directly in line with our deconsolidation thesis. We continue to
expect DHI to work its stake in FOR down to 25% over time, which would provide balance
sheet de-risking, drive powerful cash flow generation and create strong value for the
shareholders of both companies, in our view. In addition, KBH reported very solid FY3Q
financial results, which exceeded expectations for order growth, margins and EPS and the
company raised its FY19 revenue outlook. We raised our estimates and PO to $38 and the
stock received two competitor rating upgrades to Buy. Finally, the very volatile monthly
industry new home sales data for August was released with a 629K unit SAAR, which was
roughly in line with cons. and represented an 11% YoY increase. YTD new homes sales are
tracking at +7.2% YoY, consistent with our +7.5% YoY forecast. Home price data from
CoreLogic also remained solid at +5.92% YoY, which should continue to support
homebuilder margins. Notwithstanding these positive data points, interest rate/cycle
concerns again prevailed, widening the disconnect b/w the stocks and reality.
The CNBC article goes on to say that the SEC defines penny stocks as sub $5 stocks trading on an OTC market. I don't think the Merrill restriction applies to listed stocks (NYSE or nasdaq). MNDO, the stock I had no problem placing a sell order for, only has a $40 million mkt cap.
Value, After I posted I noticed that your post only referred to restrictions on selling stocks under $5. Not sure why they would have more restrictions on selling than buying though.
So anyway, I then placed an online order to sell some MNDO at $2.50. That order also went through without a hitch.
I don't trade bb stocks anymore so such a restriction wouldn't bother me. And yes, free trades are tough to beat. I'm not sure how they even do it. Service is also great whenever I do pick up the phone to call them about something.
I had not heard of that Merrill restriction on sub $5 stocks and I do most of my trades with them since it's free of commission. The only restrictions I had heard of were on some otcbb stocks.
To check it out, I placed an online order to buy GV at $4 (last trade was 4.23).
That trade went though without a hitch. I didn't even have to get a security code to place it.