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Ok, I'm curious to see how aggressively short you get. I'll be adding to my SPXS short too, but it will remain a very small position as I previously posted.
SPXS, SDS
Wade - the market hits new highs all the time, up an average of 11% a year, so hitting another new high after 2 years is hardly alarming. On an inflation adjusted basis we still have a ways to go .....
I'm expecting a 5 to 10% correction in the S&P 500 in the 1st quarter, but that's hardly a disaster.
If you're so confident of an imminent sharp correction, then why not buy more SDS or SPXS ? You said you'd go aggressively more short if the S&P approached 4800. Well, it's now at 4781.
Here's your post -
I will only get more aggressive if this makes a run to 4800 than I will go significantly short, instead of alot of cash.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=173423208&txt2find=overbrought
You disagree with the two year returns being negative ? Which is way below historic average two year returns ???
Most market indexes are down over the past two years ..... it's been a great year, but a NOT so great two years - in that sense the market is not so frothy.
Gains and Losses since 12/31/21 -
TKR % Change Cur Price Start Price
$NYFANG 18% 8780.44 7422
$NDX 3% 16878.46 16320.08
$DJI 3% 37545.33 36338.3
$SPX 0% 4774.75 4766.18
$RLG -1% 3058.7 3074.99
$MID -1% 2808.79 2842
$RLV -2% 1630.69 1655.73
$DJT -2% 16104.26 16478.26
$SPXEW -3% 6412.13 6605.87
$COMP -4% 15074.57 15644.97
$SML -5% 1334.68 1401.71
$RUT -8% 2059.19 2245.31
$DJU -10% 878.96 980.78
$RUMIC -16% 742.79 880.26
$W5KMIC -28% 13539.24 18916.42
HALO -.49 to 36.88, I recently joined you with a small position. Q3 EPS of $0.75 beat estimates. Analysts are expecting 38% EPS growth in 2024, although that seems aggressive. The stock is way down from its 52wk high of $57+ and recent weakness may be due to tax loss selling pressure. I think it's a good candidate for a January bounce followed by solid gains for the full year. I'm accumulating shares.
briefing -
Halozyme Therapeutics beats by $0.04, reports revs in-line; guides FY23 EPS above consensus, revs in-line (35.26 -0.32) :
Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.75 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.04 better than the FactSet Consensus of $0.71; revenues rose 3.4% year/year to $216 mln vs the $216.08 mln FactSet Consensus.
Co issues guidance for FY23, sees EPS of $2.70-$2.80 vs. $2.64 FactSet Consensus, up from prior guidance of $2.65-$2.75; sees FY23 revs of $825-$845 mln vs. $830.22 mln FactSet Consensus.
SAH +.91 to 58.69 looks undervalued at 8x 2024 EPS estimates. Sonic Automotive is an auto dealership chain. Q3 adj EPS of $2.02 easily beat estimates for $1.77. Sales should benefit in 2024 from lower interest rates on car loans. Div yield is 2% and the company has bought back a hefty 9% of its shares in 2023 at last report. I recently added to my position.
briefing -
Sonic Automotive beats by $0.25, beats on revs, approves 3.4% increase to quarterly cash dividend (43.33 ) :
Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $2.02 per share, $0.25 better than the FactSet Consensus of $1.77; revenues rose 4.4% year/year to $3.6 bln vs the $3.55 bln FactSet Consensus.
EchoPark Segment revenues of $626.7 million, up 6% year-over-year; all-time record quarterly EchoPark Segment gross profit of $52.8 million, up 22% year-over-year.
Sonic's Board of Directors approved a 3.4% increase to the Company's quarterly cash dividend, to $0.30 per share, payable on January 12, 2024 to all stockholders of record on December 15, 2023.
AESI has an interesting project called the "Dune Express" coming online in Q4 of next year that will more efficiently transport frac sand on conveyor belts and reduce the need for more expensive truck transport ..... that should boost margins and accommodate increasing production. Hopefully this ambitious project will remain on schedule and budget.
PR -
"The Dune Express remains on-time and on-budget, and we expect it to be up and running in the fourth quarter of 2024. We have ordered more than 90% of the equipment and materials for the project and have also contracted more than 80% of the installation and labor, which significantly reduces budget risk. To-date, we have taken deliveries of more than 57-miles of conveyor belts and over 100-miles of fiber optic cable."
AESI +.11 to 17.85 looks attractive. Atlas Energy Solutions is a frac sand supplier and has been ramping up production. They have a new facility coming online and expect production to increase 35% in 2024. Q3 EPS was $0.51. Dividend yield is 3.3%.
I recently picked up a small position.
conf call -
our run rate is 11 million tons this year. And we currently plan on selling 15 million tons next year.
https://seekingalpha.com/pr/19515434-atlas-energy-solutions-announces-third-quarter-2023-results
I have a very small <1% position in SPXS and will probably double down soon, but that's still a tiny position. I'm not a market timer. If I were, I have much less money than I do now. Currently I'm about 15% in cash, 84% long, 1% short.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=173435257&txt2find=spxs
S&P500 +17 to 4771 - Market Commentary from Briefing.com
Midday Stock Market Summary
The stock market is continuing its winning ways, trading with a positive bias after eight consecutive winning weeks for the major indices. Today's positive price action comes amid the Santa Claus rally period, which is the last five trading days of the year and the first two trading days of the new year.
Volume has been light so far due to many investors remaining in vacation-mode ahead of another extended holiday weekend. Still, buying activity has been broad and orderly. The A-D line favors advancers by a 7-to-2 margin at the NYSE and a nearly 2-to-1 margin at the Nasdaq.
The Russell 2000 is outperforming other major indices, trading up 1.1%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.3%), S&P 500 (+0.4%), and Nasdaq Composite (+0.4%) sport more modest gains.
Notably, the major indices are trading near session highs despite losses in some of their most influential constituents. Apple (AAPL 193.24, -0.34, -0.2%), Microsoft (MSFT 374.02, -0.56, -0.2%), and Amazon.com (AMZN 153.26, -0.15, -0.1%) are among the standouts in that respect.
Some M&A activity in the biotech space has contributed to the positive bias due to the large premiums being paid rather than the actual size of the deals. Bristol-Myers (BMY 51.31, -0.98, -1.9%) is acquiring RayzeBio (RYZB 61.39, +30.82, +100.8%) for $62.50 per share in cash, which is a 104% premium over Friday's closing price, and AstraZeneca (AZN 66.35, +0.06, +0.1%) is acquiring Gracell Biotechnologies (GRCL 9.90, +3.71, +60.0%) for an upfront cash portion of $10.00 per ADS, which is a 62% premium over Friday's closing price.
Only one S&P 500 sector trades down -- health care (-0.03%) -- while the remaining ten sectors show gains ranging from 0.1% to 1.3%. The energy sector leads the pack, rising alongside oil prices ($75.89/bbl, +2.33, +3.2%), which are responding to geopolitical angst tied to a weekend report that an oil tanker near India was struck by an Iranian drone.
The 2-yr note yield is up four basis points to 4.37% and the 10-yr note yield is unchanged at 3.90%.
GTEC - I'm also hoping for a pullback and have GTC orders waiting ......
S&P500 +42 to 4740, yeah that 2 hour correction yesterday afternoon was brutal. Glad things are back to normal today. Bargain hunters came out of the woodwork to buy the selloff, LOL.
GCT +.04 to 14.95, another scammy stock that's rebounded sharply from the $8's just 3 weeks ago ..... momentum is what counts the most to traders in this hot market !
DRCT +1.95 to 13.31, just sold most of the remaining shares I got filled on in the mid $7's just last week ..... I'm back on the bid with GTC orders in the low $9's and lower .... hopefully it corrects again !
Thanks again to Hweb for alerting the board to this terrific winner in the $3's about 6 weeks ago !
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=173194369&txt2find=drct
S&P500 -70 to 4698, that was quite an abrupt drop for starting at around 2pm. Maybe the start of an overdue correction ? Tomorrow will be interesting, but at this point the futures are up slightly so there's been no further plunge after hours so far.
ESOA -.10 to 5.32, is in the energy business - a big chunk of it is pipeline construction and maintenance for the oil and gas industry. The last 2 years have been boom times as domestic production increased sharply and new pipelines were needed for collection and transport. Now energy prices have fallen sharply and it looks like we may soon have a NatGas glut. So that could diminish new pipeline demand and even cause orders to get cancelled and backlog to decline. That's the risk with this stock, along with the adverse seasonality of the next 2 quarters.
I picked up a small position but will await the Dec Q1 results and backlog to be announced in mid Feb before buying more aggressively.
Wade - ESOA FY23 Q4 gross margin was 15.3%, not 12.1% The entire year was 12.1%. You have to derive the Q4 numbers from the annual and 9 month numbers.
TDA has not yet informed me when my account will be moved to Schwab, but that's fine with me .... I'm not looking forward to the move, but hopefully it will go smoothly.
EBIX -2.20 to 2.73 in premarket after filing chapter 11 .... how much, if any, equity is retained by existing shareholders after the restructuring remains to be seen -
https://seekingalpha.com/news/4047241-ebix-files-for-chapter-11-bankruptcy-protection-report
GERN - I own a tiny position for a trade and may soon sell - avg cost is low $2's and a 10% profit would be fine.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=172852813&txt2find=gern
CPE +1.76 to 33.44 on takeover talk -
https://seekingalpha.com/news/4046880-callon-petroleum-gains-on-report-of-takeover-interest
SPXS +.05 to 12.01, I just picked up a few shares as a hedge. I wouldn't be surprised if we get a 5% or greater correction in the coming weeks.
FEIM (9.84) looks attractive, but the backlog is for deliveries spanning 2 to 3 years out, nor is it guaranteed .... it's potential. I doubt margins will hit 40% until the 2nd half of 2024 and 50% seems a stretch. Also I think they mentioned that only smaller orders are expected in the coming months, so the backlog could go into decline.
Small and Microcaps hugely outperforming since 11/10 -
TKR % Change Cur Price Start Price
$RUMIC 19% 709.79 596.29
$RUT 17% 2000.51 1705.32
$SML 17% 1302.22 1114.51
$MID 14% 2770.93 2439.62
$W5KMICRO13% 12424.18 10969.47
$SPXEW 12% 6368.08 5710.26
$DJT 10% 15912.92 14426.49
$RLV 9% 1619.14 1479.35
$DJI 9% 37248.35 34283.1
$DJU 7% 897.16 837.98
$COMP 7% 14761.56 13798.11
$SPX 7% 4719.55 4415.24
$NYFANG 7% 8547.71 8000.01
$NDX 7% 16537.83 15529.12
$RLG 6% 3009.3 2836.64
AVERAGE RETURN = 11%
SSK - so you're going be on the sidelines in cash until we get a major correction ? How big a correction for the S&P500 are you expecting ? And in what timeframe ?
ADFJF - one can buy it online at Ameritrade, but not at Schwab.
RMAX +.81 to 13.20, a hefty 26% gain since I posted the Russell 2000 opportunities list .... the real estate market should perk up in 2024 due to lower mortgage rates and pent up demand and greater willingness of homeowners to sell.
SGOV -.43 to 100.05, is ex-dividend today. They go ex-div 2 weeks early in December.
So why don't you scale into SPXS slowly ?.... 5% to start and then adding if the market continues to rally. Clearly the market is due for a correction, probably within the next few weeks, but I don't think it will be severe. Perhaps 5% to 10%. jmho
But the bulls are stampeding, they're stampeding ! You're missing out.
SPX
S&P500 +29 to 4673, market surges higher after Fed issues dovish statement and keeps rates unchanged -
briefing -
Federal Reserve releases FOMC statement -- Fed keeps rates unchanged at 5.25-5.50%
Recent indicators suggest that growth of economic activity has slowed from its strong pace in the third quarter. Job gains have moderated since earlier in the year but remain strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated.
The U.S. banking system is sound and resilient. Tighter financial and credit conditions for households and businesses are likely to weigh on economic activity, hiring, and inflation. The extent of these effects remains uncertain. The Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks.
The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent. The Committee will continue to assess additional information and its implications for monetary policy. In determining the extent of any additional policy firming that may be appropriate to return inflation to 2 percent over time, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in its previously announced plans. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.
In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.
Fedwatch tool does the probability calculation based on interest rate futures -
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html
Wade - the futures market gives the odds of a hike tomorrow just a 1.6% probability .... I don't know how you come up with these far out ideas, but if you really believe there's a 50% chance of a hike, you can make a quick killing in the futures market if it happens. 60x your bet if they hike.
DRCT hit $7.14 at noon before bouncing back into the $8's. Quite a severe correction from $14+ last week. I just entered some GTC bids in the mid $7's and lower in case there's a retest of today's lows .....
You're right Wade, although I think they'll up their forecasts depending on where the market ends this year ..... I'm guessing a flattish market in 2024, but plenty of undervalued stocks will provide good returns as well as trading opportunities.
SPX
The Reuters Thomson screener is now behind a paywall - evidently it's now Refinitiv Eikon (Subsidiary of London Stock Exchange Group, Formerly Thomson Reuters). Their platform costs $3,600 to $22,000 per year, depending on features. I think FinViz is easily the best free screener on the web.
https://www.wallstreetprep.com/knowledge/bloomberg-vs-capital-iq-vs-factset-vs-thomson-reuters-eikon/
Analysts on average expect about a 7% gain for the S&P500 in 2024 - Goldman expects 6%, about inline with the consensus -
https://www.goldmansachs.com/intelligence/pages/the-sp-500-index-is-forecast-to-return-six-percent.html
https://www.financialsamurai.com/2024-wall-street-forecasts-for-the-sp-500-stock-market/
Wade - SOX you need to check the heavily weighted components first. Like AVGO, INTC, AMD, TXN, NVDA, etc. The top 10 are most of the index. The sub 1% components have little effect.
https://www.nasdaq.com/SOX