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Nobody in his/her right mind would expect the company to say top line data would not be announced in the near future or on any day now as it is still within the guidelines of company's latest news release (5 October news release), which indicates
Statisticians would be first unblinded to analyze raw data and prepare report for the reviews and analyses of the company, experts of the steering committee and the scientific advisory board, and some independent experts. The statisticians would be then continually working with the company and these experts for the preparation for public announcement and scientific publications;
And nobody in his/her right mind would expect the company to say the already extended warrants would not be extended again if necessary, leaving absolutely no wiggle room in case and if necessary.
Retail investors are a fussy bunch. While some are genuine, some are just utter pathetic, but Karma is a bitch.
It's in your own perils to not base your own DDs on the latest news release/SEC filing, which in this case is the 5 Oct PR, but some historical news/filing or hearsays.
It's always top line data first, followed by publications/conference. After that the flood gate will be fully open, and that when we will see Linda on national TV.
[I have used up my three posts a day quota recently, unbelievable]
IkeEsq, the emphasis is and below:
Quoted from 5 Oct data lock PR:
"... who will analyze the data with the statisticians in preparation for public announcement and scientific publication...."
public announcement AND scientific publication
As it is usually the case for most companies in such circumstances:
Public announcement of top line data, followed by journal/conference publications
Does that mean we will expect 20% less complaining or 20% more complaining from you
Citing 20% more company history and you have a long way to go all back to 1996 when this company was founded.
Things have changed, more in the positive side. Don't need to agree with me. The market has said so.
You are very good fella, I really hate to see you grudging.
BTW, the company is still in line with their latest PR (5 October) regarding top line;
The data have been analyzed in accordance with adapted SAP with new reordered additional endpoints in which we are pretty much assured that its primary endpoint will be met with statistically significant p;
we still have the blinded paper to review if we are by any means shaking, and the trending better update to the blinded paper;
[I would say even "the Night King of Biotech" (aka AF, or grapefruit juice marketer) has recently covertly acknowledge the success of DCVax-L trial by only nitpicking evidenced by his various tweets;]
Let the company do it right, which takes time.
Karlchen, I think we can only think those statements in future tense with rationality and reasonability, ie, common sense.
I don't believe the company was intended to deceive. As as timeline is concerned and based on the company's guideline of 5 October news, I think by now the statisticians have been working on the data for at least two to three weeks (preceding with one to two weeks assigned to the job, preparation if any)
Today, I expect both the company (LP, and LG), along with key experts mentioned in the 5 Otc PR must have been unblinded
The statisticians, the company and key experts are working towards a PR, and journal publication, etc.
If "the company is 'mostly' unblinded," and Linda Liau has not yet been unblinded as of today, then there must be something going on between the statisticians and RAs like FDA, perhaps on behalf of the company or with the instruction of the company via its steering committee. Or as I said in the previous post, there may be a substantial financial injection on our way, etc, so a quiet period is warranted.
This is my last post allowed so I am sorry for having no chance to reply to any other posts. GLTA!
Quite period -- If this board really wants to talk something interesting it should note for multiple times, claimed by multiple people that the company said/indicated it is currently in a quite period.
I don't want to get into whether the company should say it's in a quite period or not, or whether such quite period really exists, or whether there is or not law governing it, etc.
The fact is from my lengthy biotech investing experience, tons of companies did say they were in a quite period. For a small biotech company on the cusp of a binary event, such a quite period usually indicates the underlying company is in hold of unblinded trial data, and top line or a PR related to trial result is imminent.
For the specific case of NWBO however, if Linda Liau was still anxiously waiting for results as of last Friday, and assume "the company is 'mostly' blinded" statement did come from Les' big mouth as of yesterday which means the company may not have possessed the unblinded data yet as of yesterday, then what that quite period is really related to, considering the company said it is currently in a quite period at least two weeks ago?
If above is true, then the quite period must have related to other thing. What could it be?
Could it be a major substantial regulatory decision? or
A substantial financial injection, which differs with those diluted deals we have been all very familiar with and disliking?
What could it be then if not?
This is the most recent PR from the company which I base for my DD, not who claim what he/her said in social media/bb/mb or via phone or email.
here is the link: https://nwbio.com/northwest-biotherapeutics-announces-data-lock-of-phase-iii-trial/
Quote "The statisticians will proceed as quickly as possible with analyses of the raw data and prepare summaries of the Trial results for review by the Company, the Principal Investigator, the Steering Committee of the Trial, the Scientific Advisory Board, and a panel of independent brain cancer experts, who will analyze the data with the statisticians in preparation for public announcement and scientific publication."
So 5 October -- data lock, after that
Statisticians would be unblinded and analyze the raw data and prepare summaries of the Trial results for review by xxxxxxxx
Then, the statisticians would continue working, ie, analyzing the data with xxxxxxx in preparation for public announcement and scientific publication
So of course I believe at the time being the statisticians are still working with expert and the company to prepare PR AND scientific publication.
So according to the most recent company PR on any day we may expect a PR, most likely top line data PR, and a publication at much later time. [the PR on top line would be prepared in a way which would not compromise scientific publication. There are tons of precedents and it would not be difficult to do that!]
To summarize, PR on top line any day, journal publication on much later day! and each of these step, the statisticians would be engaged.
Don't know and understand why so many people are so confused, unless you trade the stock, in and out like changing baby diapers, flip flop,...
This is one of a few times I have actually replied to you; most time I simply ignore you for obvious reason.
The reason for the last publication to take considerate long time is because the content of that publication is blended, blinded trial data. As you said at the time, no Journals would publish such a crabshoot;
Now the content of the to be published trial data is unblinded data of an unprecedented 14 years long, data rich pivotal phase 3 DCVax-L for one of the deadest cancers. I can tell you there will be fierce competition for the right to publish such data, and time is short.
There are a couple of prestigious Journals now regrets to the core for refusing to publish the blinded data last time, only seeing it was published in Journal of Translational Medicine with huge success, with many tens of thousands of accesses, and significant numbers of citation.
They will not hesitate this time.
I know you know all the above, and I am just waste my time for you, but once in a while I just cannot help...
yes you just answered your own question! Down significantly and it has always come with pathetic volume, and on an up day it comes with much larger volume.
Me. It's manipulation!
Cheered by small potatoes as usual. Those who are holding or were holding probably shares from a few thousands to a few hundreds of thousands, and who usually get out and come back in like changing baby diapers with mood shifting daily.
Non issue, and I am ready to buy despite holding too many shares I have lost counts for years, particularly this year, adding in any downtrend!
I need to hire somebody to count my shares!
[flip flopper is very dangerous at this point as we have been derisked first by publication of blinded data, followed by adapted endpoints which guarantee primary endpoint med with statistically significant p; manufacturing has been ramped up; top line any day -- what else you still need to see the forest!!!]
Thank you very much BioInvestor4 for sharing your conversation with DI which took place a couple of weeks ago. It contains rich information. On that my thoughts are as follows:
1) Yes, it's now a fact that EU, specifically UK and Germany have approved our SAP which contains the adapted endpoints;
2) Maybe partly because of 1), DI expects the same from "the other countries," presumably US and Canada for buying in shortly; and
3) Since he mentioned he could not say much because the company was in the quiet period at the time, this suggests what we can wait for from the company as a result of its quiet period is not the US and Canada's buy in for adapted endpoints, but something else.
So what could that something else be? Of course, top line data could be one. Besides that, maybe the company was waiting for some kind of important regulatory decision, or maybe by that time (a couple of weeks ago), only Linda Powers and Les Goldman were unblinded who were then in negotiation with Merck representatives who were also unblinded and signed NDA for a deal, either partnership or buyout.
Maybe the partnership or buyout deal was reached after both parties had reviewed preliminary unblinded data, and now maybe pending official US' buy in.
So as of recently, even Linda Liau had been kept out of the loop, not yet be unblinded, and the withdrawal of conferences are also the result of the above.
So maybe when we have top line news we will also have the news of a deal with Merck and/or some substantial regulatory decision on our favor. We will be instantly on a rock solid base with share price in double digits reflecting the deal.
The bottom line is we pretty much have EU in the bag for approval (an anchored share price of at least $2 if the price reflects reality for EU alone), and it seems US and Canada will soon follow suit, by first buying in for adapted endpoints. In the meantime, all others may just be wild or entertaining speculations.
Lastly, I thank you all from the bottom of my heart for reading and responding to my posts. My apology for not responding to each of your posts, either because I don't know how to appropriately respond, or because I personally want to limited my exposure in ihub which has "generously granted" my wish and given three posts a day for me.
Very exciting journey ahead of us, wishing we all a good luck!
[In concept, the name of Merck can be replaced by any other big P; it's just like more likely Merck is the one coming first, maybe because Duffy's short employment with NWBO and/or reported Merck sVP's handshake with Ms Powers at ASCO. If Merck is indeed the one, it only means that it has the first right, other big P can also come into competition afterwards]
ATLnsider, and Gary I actually agree with what you both have stated in principle regarding all four RAs' buy in for the adapted endpoints as per company's previous communications and the fact the data was locked on 5 October.
But if that is a certainty. It would have been useful and meaningful for the company to release a PR saying so. So it feels there seems to be something ongoing between the company and FDA. My intuition is it must have been something more than making ascertain of buying in for adapted endpoints, like Gary suggested. It always strike me that the first second endpoint is regarding recurrent GBM. I wonder if this endpoint is met, should the company request FDA to approval DCVax-L to treat recurrent GBM as well, at least conditionally.
All in all I believe the company should issue a PR regarding adapted endpoints and RAs acceptance if all are onboard, if such PR would not poke the eye of any of the four RAs.
And I also believe there may be something more on the stake and the more we wait the better the outcome will be.
At this stage I think the primary and at least some secondary endpoints will be met in a statistically significant way, and UK and German's approvals will be in the bag in due time. As far as the FDA is concerned, I believe it will be ultimately onboard and approve DCVAx-L for nGBM, and even more for rGBM as well as long as data is good enough.
The fast-changing, seemingly genuine mood swings in this board really point to too many small potatoes who are holding sharees probably from a few thousands to less than a few hundreds of thousand shares at one time, and constantly trade in and out of the market. For me these are just white noises.
For some others who are genuinely on the mood swing syndrome maybe they just can't see the forest for the trees.
This is exactly anyone should have paid attention to: endpoint changes which I would prefer endpoint adaptions.
It has been a tedious process back and forth between the company and the four RAs, and this process has now bore fruit: UK and Germany have bee onboard with company's request for endpoint adaptation.
Nonetheless, we have not seen FDA doing the same; otherwise I have seen no reason that the company has not PR or updated US clinicaltrial register.
I guess if that's the case, it is still better the company should work hard to persuade the FDA to onboard now -- this is the goal the company should aim with the utmost priority, to have some trouble now and guarantee smoother success later!
In a logic thought, the company should PR endpoint changes/adaptations first before announcing top line data.
So on possibility is that the company may elect to be still blinded and let FDA access or instruct statisticians to report directly to FDA and let FDA more informed before it can make a decision.
However, by no means FDA's nod or not is not required by the law, the company can still be unblinded and report top line data, and later submit BLA to FDA for approval, and let data to speak for itself, but obviously this will not be the best way forward.
So it may be that the company initially anticipate FDA's nod/buying in would come shortly after 5 October so that all the conference presentations could go forward as planned, but for whatever reason, this process still needs more time.
Besides waiting for FDA's buy-in for the adapted endpoints, there may be other regulatory process on going which could include early approval if FDA gets unblinded data, etc.
To sum it up, the best scenario is that the company can get FDA's buyin for adapted endpoints soon so that all four RAs involved will have been onboard, and based on what we have known about the blinded data, at least the primary endpoint will be med with statistically significant p value, in addition to some if not all of the five secondary endpoints.
The worst scenario would be that the company cannot get positive response from FDA regarding its endpoint adaptation, and will elect (after a while the company has to move ahead without FDA's buyin)to move forward to be unblinded and announce top line data, and come up with a best way forward, including journal publication, conference, etc., and later submit BLA to FDA for approval.
What FDA can do when it receives BLA, even it is not happy, it has to review the BLA, and may convene an Adcom to evaluate the data. If the data is good enough, I don't see why adcom would not recommend to FDA to approve, and FDA has no reason to decide against its own Adcom's recommendation.
All in all, if you are seeing the forest for the tree, instead of not seeing the forest for the trees, take easy and let the process play it out.
In the meantime, make the stock price up and down into own advantage.
Abstract can be one or two paragraphs in length or one to a few full sentences per each paragraph.
A poster is usually at least one page in length.
At this point before top line data is released, I guess the best way to do it at this conference is to just have an abstract published, which will not compromise the release of top line data later, let alone journal publication. [At this time Sentiment already confirmed there would be not abstract nor poster. Nothing changes. top line data can still be any day!]
[Thank you Sentiment for your post #327174. This is my last post allowed for today so I could not reply to your said post]
You are absolutely right on this one sentiment_stocks. And I will add it will be not easy to come out a top line announcement as there are one primary and five secondary endpoints. they need time to think and write that one in accommodation with other priorities, such as journal publication, etc
He does move his fingers quick googling
Even quicker for a few pennies of hoped for profit
most often lost in the forest for staring at the tree
All these chatters on conferences, journal publications, when and how, etc are useless as the company is position itself for the best way forward. There are and will be definitely some changes, revision, etc.
In the end, nothing fundamentals have changed. Top line data still can come out any day.
We all shall have a basic trust that Linda has been acting on behalf of the best interests of both the company and its shareholders.
flipper44, flip flopped again? How many thousands of shares?
buy, buy and buy as many as you can afford.
Let Biden declare victory this afternoon/evening, then tomorrow or Monday we get top line news.
[this is my last post allowed. GLTA!]
Jammyjames, as you know it's a virtual presentation/poster. I guess doing in this way allows the poster content to be published in journals and/or conference proceedings later as the poster may not be regarded as publication since it will not be published in print form by the conference.
On the other hand, at this point I guess the most important thing is to get message out -- top line data, and then focus on publication.
Think about it, three world-class world-known experts converge in a conference (virtual of course) to present a poster in a usually /Master"s/PhD student swarmed session. What that suggests?
The only reason and implication is that there must be something very significant to present, which in my opinion it's indeed something related to top line data, and the data must be very positive, less you don't shame yourselves in such a humble way, waste the time of three world-class experts...
Gap up or I will add!
Not after top line data are announced. I would recommend the conference organizers get a big hall ready to accommodate a lot of people who will come to see the poster and participate in Q&A from three known world-class experts!
Gap up tomorrow! Not much time left to cover for naked short wolfpack!
Yes there are always two opposing forces in play, particularly on NWBO. But I should say, the bad guys are more nervous than the good, so any downward attempt should be corrected in a short time, although I pretty much prefer to see a straight up movement!
All the negative talking about the withdrawal of Linda's 10-min plenary presentation is pure pathetic, and lacking of common sense!
If Linda Liau still wanted to talk it at SNO plenary session, she can do it, even with results of a "failed trial," because there will always be something worthy academically.
So what it happens really is that because data/results will be discussed earlier at SITC in a manner of much more content richness (one hour instead of merely 10 minutes previously scheduled at SNO plenary), it will simply go against the rule of SNO. As a result, she has to withdraw. In other words, if nobody presents at SITC, then she doesn't have to withdraw.
On the other hand, it is more meaningful and considerate to have the presentation presented by all three experts who have contributed significantly to bringing this 13-year long trial into successful completion, not only either of the three.
It's exactly that fact that the three most important experts of the trial will jointly present at SITC that signifies that top line data will be released just before that presentation happens!
Gap up tomorrow, or I will buy to [contribute to] make it up!
I am now convinced there are about 200 million naked short shares still trapped and Linda Powers want to burn them, so do all long!
I interpret Today's 8-k as such, besides Linda really cares about us retail investors.
Burn naked short wolfpack before Christmas!
yes in thin volume trading day like this, they can do this with almost no loss/small loss at best.
It's all pointing to a fact that this stock is supported mostly by retail investors
Linda's so-called friendies hedge funds are too small, too selfish, too short-sighted, or simply put lack of resource to even protect own interest.
As pity as it sounds, it also means that when the time is right we can run much higher the price than most would expected when the market is finally waken.
I can see that and I am actually happy about the current situation. More short pain (days) but much more long-term (month or months) gain really.
The algo machine is running this morning as some expected. In the loop,if no resistance it will run the price as low as possible to its predetermined target; if there is some resistance, it will pause and wait, then it will be running again trying to reach the target
And if the resistance is strong enough or there are buying pressure coming in strong, the algo machine then will reverse course. Ditch its own working, and instead run an alternative program or may change course in 180° reverse.
Funny and inexperience teenager
Maybe, and just maybe all the concerted campaign about this warrant fearmongering is all about short covering!
The grapefruit juice hack and his accomplices may be all have been working for that purpose.
Last post for today before leaving for a trip
For newbies and potential investors from an old timer:
Nothing is 20/20 only the hindsight.
We were insulted as bagholders when price dropped drastically from dollar land, yet we were defiant, average down;
We were insulted as bagholders when price further declined into one half of a dollar, yet we were defiant, average down;
We were insulted as bagholders when price continually declined into $0.20s, yet we were defiant, again averaged down;
We were insulted as bagholders when the price drop into teens, yet we were defiant, continued average down;
Despite the repeated prediction/assertion for the demise of our company due to depleted financing and increasingly dire financial difficulties, and likening the brilliant science being no more than some grapefruit juice, yet we were defiant, accelerating our seemingly destined endless share price average down,
because we believe in the science, the management as a whole who can bring DCVax platform into full play in the market, and stock prices will be ultimately reflecting on its fundamental value.
Most of our old timers now have held shares probably ten or even twenty times what we were initially desired for with an average share price in the range from $0.20s to slightly more than $1 because of repeated averaging downs. Yes we are all in the black now with the share counts ten or twenty times what we initially planned to have, showing a huge profit (in paper of course) much more than we have anticipated at this stage before top line data announcement, or partnership, or buyout.
Newbies and potential investors, we had been in a much harsher and more difficult situation, yet we were defiant, continued average downs in the past, and now most of us have averaged up, repeatedly. For me I have bought a significant number of shares averaging up in the range from $0.3s to $1.8, and again averaging down from $1.87 to $0.958 recently.
Now the brilliant science behind DCVax platform is about to be confirmed, the outcome of the trial is as clear as day. What have you been waiting for!
Gook luck to all, have a good rest in this beautiful Sunday, and happy investing!
Agreed evanstony. Some people have been busy spewing FUD centered now on warrant exercising in the coming weeks in a concerted and collaborated way via twitter, message boards and other social media.
Simply because they now realize that DCVax-L trial will be meeting its primary and secondary endpoints in the coming days, and a paradigm shift treatment is on the horizon, and that Novocure's good time will soon end.
As a result, tens of billion $$ are at risk as Novocure's Optune device will be readily replaced by DCVax-L;
I don't think at what we have known about the trial that the short will be dumb enough to not cover, plus a huge demand of shares in the waiting.
[These forces, the short, the pro-novocure force, and the huge demand of share force all want a low share price environment. It's easy to understand that, but there are always opposing forces. It's a competing game with unknown short-term (one or two days) outcome maybe but known near future outcome with unstoppable substantial share price rise]
Anybody against the trend now is like throwing himself into burning smelter
Thanks for the fuel!
[btw, I am not a subscriber so I could not use private message. So sorry for all who have send me messages there]
anders2211 you are absolutely right about that that Novocure had a MC of 5 billion 6 months after TLD, [and about $2 billion before TLD.]
BTW, as the rule of thumb, a drug/therapeutic vaccine company is usually value much much higher than a device company for obvious reasons.
So at least we should be valued much higher than Novocure.
If you reason anything NWBO for a few minutes, it would be very clear that investing in NWBO in the next few weeks should be quite an easy and pleasant thing:
Investors should not be focused on the known unknowns: 1) whether warrants and how many will exercise and sell onto the market or not in the near future; 2) would the naked short wolfpack take advantage of such an anxiety to make thing worse, and I bet they will but there will also be buy pressure from who I don't know; and how the stock price would react on the above and beyond, will it increase or decline by how much? and 3) in the near future when exactly will top line data be released, and are there any other news which could also be released before the top line data or shortly thereafter?
In other words, the stock price may either increase or decrease with unknown intensity? Which nobody know for certain, and why anyone should exhaust own time and energy on that?
Instead, we should be focused on the knows: 1) fundamentally nothing has changed, if not better, because we have now known for sure that the whole EU is onboard with the company for its adapted SAP and endpoints; 2) despite that the share price has been halved in recent days from around $2.5 to today's $1.1 (with an equivalent market cap from about $2 billion to today's $1 billon); 3) tens or twenties of millions of warrants have exercised, sold and added to the float (now about 808 million shares outstanding), and it would be reasonable to believe that roughly the equal number of shares may have sold short by some warrant holders with their future warrants as hedge; 3) top line data will be released probably before 20 Nov, but it could happen any day before that; 4) it's most likely there may be other possible news around 20 Nov;
Most importantly 5) we now know almost for certain that the top line data will be positive -- at least the primary OS endpoint and/or a few other secondary endpoints if not all will be med with statistically significant p values, and 6) for GBM alone DCVax-L is at least worthy of $10 billion if not $20 billion if approved by the four RAs (equivalent to about $10 to $20 per share).
At the market close last Friday, NWBO traded at about $1.1 per share or about $1 billion market cap. How confident do you believe we will reach $2 billion mc ($2.2 per share), $3 billion mc ($3 per share), $4 billion mc ($4 per share), … $10 billion mc ($10 per share), and $20 billion mc ($20 per share) after top line data release within the next two or three weeks? How much will be the factor considering other indications? How much will DCVax as a platform really worth?
I don't know what you think, nor your strategy and tactics in the next few weeks in terms of buying or selling or holding nwbo stock?
But for me, it's quite simple: as long as the fundamental has not changed as it is laid out above, $1 per share (about $1 billion mc) is a strong buy. As a matter of fact, I have added shares recently in the range from $1.87 all the way down to $0.958.
Ladies and gentlemen, stop torturing yourselves, and please look at the forest not the trees!
[Despite I don't think warrant holders are dumb enough to exercise prematurely for several dimes of profit instead of dollars, the above reasoning still applies]
Oh my god, a few pennies dropped thanks to mighty grape fruit juice therapist/rapist AF
Oh my god, a few pennies dropped thanks to corroborating hedges working in concert with the rapist
Oh my god, a few pennies dropped thanks to some newbies' constant chatters measuring how long and how big is the difference between an inch and two, swarming message board
Oh my god, the rapist knows nothing about the science, the trial design, the contemporary trials, and evolving landscape of immunotherapy.
Look at our Linda's no-ball hedge fund friends who can easily beat the hacks into pulps if they are willing to pump one or maybe just one half of million shares in the open market.
If they are not willing, we are collectively.
A Summary of Anything NWBO Today:
There is a concerted force composed of probably some warrant holders and short hedges who has determined to bring down the price, probably to as low as about $0.80s to fill the last unfilled gap, and in doing so to make a market capitulation;
As a result, price has been brought down from about $2.3 to today's $1 range from probably selling of tens to twenties of million shares from warrant exercising, exacerbated by some short selling, and fear mongering in social media;
But, nothing has changed fundamentally. Instead, EU and UK are fully confirmed today to accommodate company's endpoint adaptations via confirmation of German clinical registry, and it seems it's only a matter of time FDA will be confirmed as well;
The most vicious NWBO attacker, aka grapefruit juice guy, now has nothing to say about the company but expression of his worry for the common retail investors over possible further warrant excursing and selling after 1 Nov;
The market as of now at 12:08pm has answered: I will buy any share which is for sale at this price range.
And what's the big difference to have a future price movement from $0.80s to $10 or from $1 to $10, considering one may miss out.
This is my last post for today, Good Luck!
It's quite a telling: strong buy at this price because
If "the Biotech Chief Science Officer," the grapefruit juice guy has nothing to say about the science but worrying for us retail investors about warrant exercise in the near future,
1) he has quietly admitted the trial will be successful;
2) The recent shaking up may be not just simply warrant exercising, plus opportunistic some short selling, but a preparation for unknown Wall Street sharks to take reasonable positions before top line data;
3) The price has been brought down to a level which positions anyone who buys today can have a very substantial profit in the near future.
It's no brainier. Buy as many shares as you can afford, that what AF has actually told today.
The manipulator hedges are frustrated and about giving up their dirty tricks. [Because one share for sale is readily bought instantly!]
They determine to bring the price to high 0.80s or low 0.90s to fill the gap or whatever they call it, but could not do that just by selling seemingly abundant shares
Every share for sell is happily bought in the market around $1
Maybe we should help just stop buying for one minute, then the manipulator hedges would be able to fulfill their dream LOL
I personally have been buying in recent days, yesterday at $1.01 and up, and today at price $0.956 and up.
Some hedge fxxks are just too technical. No wonder the whole hedge industries have been lost costombers steadily for decade.
Nothing has changed fundamentally. Instead EU branch German clinical site has updated adapted endpoints -- the whole EU + UK are now confirmed, so is FDA which just a matter of time will be confirmed.
Tens and twenties of million warrants have been eliminated in recent days (exercised and dumped onto the market irresponsibly)
But price has been halved. Need to get more dry power to put into use.
Happy bottom fishing today:
Set order at $1.01 for 30k just for fun, thought it would never get there, but yes got filled
Today bought shares at $1.48, 1.28 as well.
Easy for old timers but maybe scary for newbies
No dump of warrant-converted shares yesterday ladies and gentlemen. and it was a down day which set perfectly for an up days ahead.
So the bleeding shall stop
Nothing change that if DCVax-L is successful, and it will based on what we have known (90% certainty), backed by the Market for rewarding us a above 1 billion of MC before top line data.
Resume uptrend soon
Happy I have bought those vulture hedges' shares in the range of 1.56-1.87
Consider TA no matter how beautiful it may be an entertainment; even fundamentals for small biotech is not really fundamentals
It just that eventually all will work out the way it should be
$30 end target price!
[And you know what, Linda refuses to sell me her shredded paper waste and she can pull randomly and stunt the market any time!]
A very tiny number of people kill, rape and post messages 24/4 day in and out with no interests in the underlining company whatever.
We are talking about the rule of thumb, not some extreme cases. Stop embarrassing yourself and wasting the time of investors.
Go to the board of stock you have invested, and start contributing there!
This last post of mine is in dedication to you man, be proud!
It's my prediction for next huge moving up as vultures sold enough, back from sunbashing, and news too full to be held.
"Clouds are gathering while wind underneath suddenly stops!" from my previous post.
btw, many people mistake endpoint changes for saving the "failed" trial, or improving the odds of success. The matter of fact is not.
It simply is to find an appropriate way to measure the efficacy of DCVax-L vaccine against GBM.
It's not change basically, it's adjustment or adaption! It's necessary.
A dozen of small Linda's "friends" vulture hedge funds, a vast number of (about 20k at least) instant mood-switch retail investors, some fungus likes who post day and night 24/7 for years "with no interests whatever in the company," and a long anticipated Topline data still in the waiting, this is what we have at the time being -- a stalled rally and a stagnation, all thanks to those Linda's vulture hedge friends, no guts, short-sighted, selling some warrant turned shares for sun-bashing at the time being.
Linda can randomly pick up any shredded piece of paper from her office garbage basket, and form a news release which can at least make retails once again nonsense talk here a whole day or two. But, that's not the Linda we know fortunately, and now even Les' bar show has been suddenly stopped.
Clouds are gathering while wind underneath suddenly stops!
Linda, can I offer 10,000 nwbo shares to buy the shredded paper in your garbage basket?
or maybe more.
That's why I bought in the range of $1.55 -$1.87 despite my average base is around $0.30s, and planned to hold shares after those vulture hedges are replaced by true friends.
Biggers, Thermooo, etc., how are you guys doing recently?
[I knew, I knew you were all laughing all the way to the bank, but let me quess, the bank may be too small for the bright future we will have for this wonderful company!]
Regarding available warrants as of 1 Nov 2020:
1) Yes, a big chunk of the warrants are in the hand of Linda, Les and the rest of the gang;
2) Another big chunk of the warrants probably have been sold long time ago, via either naked or legal shorting of shares or the combination against their own warrants, as these warrants were issued long before the recent share price rise, and the holders, believe it or not, had never been "friendlies" at the time. Nothing wrong with that that they came to nwbo to make money, and they are so called vulture hedges.
Since they sold, a lot of things have changed, eg, warrant extensions, EU revealed endpoint changes, Flaskswork acquisition, etc., share price has since appreciated substantially. A big part of the tail force behind all this is exactly these vulture hedges funds, the warrant holders who have bought back shares and plus in open market like a drunken sailor in adjusting their positions in accordance with positively changed situation. Now they genuinely sense the success rate is higher than the failure rate, and they become longs;
3) Linda has various and numerous ways to manage on when, how and what to be released, including Topline data, UK/US manufacturing update,official endpoint change news, potential partnership/buyout,conference, publication, loan from big banks/investment funds, and you name it.
It's a bit of uncertain and ambiguity but I don't think it's problem, a psychological problem maybe in short-term (a few days). If one should be worrying, they should be worrying about what kind of data we will be seeing.
In addition, if one thinks the stock will be as higher as $10 in one or two years, why selling at $2 or $3?
But make no mistake, there is always selling no matter what, and that's called market.
Some people by nature are nitpicks, which would be a good fit if working in factory floor as QA specialist.
Listen, Data has been locked as of 5 October. Statisticians have been working on the data shortly after that. By now, Linda, Steering Committee Experts, advisory board experts, and some selected independent experts have been advising the company after reviewing initial statisticians' report on topline so that the company can have a cascade of news released in a concentrated manner!
And news has been leaked, otherwise the share price would have not been so strong despite stupid/knee jerking investors always sold, even in face of supper stellar data, there will always been selling just like someone always nitpicks ...
[There have been more than tens to twenties of million shares traded every day recently. No retail investors and mama and papa shop funds can account for that
There has been a much broader and deeper trading foundation forming right before our eyes! No leak, no ways!]
Just caught up and saw your post.
I believe it's first Nov, followed by 15 December and Jan 2021. Yesterday about 3 million shares added to the float, which for most part accounted for the price collapse, while today much less, maybe a few hundred thousands of shares added, which is not enough to damp the price at the end.
Warrant exercising and selling to the market itself will not be a problem in Nov, Dec and Jan if topline data are announced before that, and the results are as good as we have expected, because there will be certainty from confirmed positive results, then no warrant holders will be dumb enough to exercise and sell for one or a few dollar profits because the price will be much highers as time goes by, so in that case I believe most will just hold.
In addition, I believe at least part if not a significant part of those warrants maybe naked, meaning the holders have sold/shorted against their warrants, probably occurring most likely before we knew the endpoint change in Eu clinical site at much lower price. As a result, the net warrant counts may be much less than what most people thought.
I believe buy pressure will come back again after yesterday's hiccup. I continued buying yesterday and today.
One more good sign is that Les has not appeared in the BigBiz show for quite a while. He may be doing rehearsal now for national mainstream media shows.