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Buddy of mine sent me his take on him:
I see a big hole in Feuerstein-Ratain Rule.
In his comments about Ziopharms, Feuerstein lays out exactly how it works. http://www.thestreet.com/story/11831941/1/ziopharms-sarcoma-study-and-the-feuerstein-ratain-rule.html
He states market cap comes from the fourth month prior to release of top line Phase III results.
That means if big pharma has the drug more than four months prior to Phase III data it will get credit under the Feuerstein-Ratain Rule
So the micro pharma pool has been cherry picked. While the rule has been correct so far, it ignores the transfer of drugs from one group to the other if the change took place more than 4 months before Phase III results are released.
It is my understanding that most companies are acquired by big pharma in the middle of Phase III’s. I have also read that Phase III’s generally take about 30 months.
The word for today is priapism.
This a repost of mine from yahoo site answering questions and comments.
They never failed
They shut down photogen to start pvct when they figured out they had a better product
They did get paid a few years a bunch.... They also are getting a product to market for around $130mm instead of $1.5 billion and in less time than normal.... We benefited from that because there are no partners to share in the end game... Probably would not be an end game otherwise....they would have taken over and you might have gotten a few bucks increase instead of the big payoff that's coming
They did not go for pIII right away when they realized they could invent a new synthesis for rb that can be approved internationally for oncology....99% purity
Patent awarded this year ....you have to go into pIII with the drug that gets approved...so they waited for the patent
PIII? No mention in 8k..... What was mentioned was btd and aa
Deliberate omission? Judge for yourself.
Large production runs done for Nda and ready to ship...hmmmmm.
Second Pfizer guy on advisory board with Chinese pharma experience
They have been working on a Chinese regional deal waiting on FDA clarity....hmmmmm
First Pfizer board member is an acquisition specialist.....hmmmmm
They changed their name and state of incorporation......around same time as FDA meeting.....hmmmmm
Pfizer losing patents on Lipitor and Viagra .....hmmmmm
You guys not getting this......???? hmmmmmm...
You guys need to reread the post I am replying to.
They don't call it BTD for nothing
An intelligent post....somebody get him a glass of champagne.
ding ding ding ding...another cookie
Ding ding ding ding. Give the man a cookie.
I acknowledge your points. Your thinking way too hard. I will not hold your hand...but I am jumping with you. I am all in....every dime I own. I have no other position in any other stock.
The good one
Yes....I base my assumption on an approved drug.....lol. Why on earth would a big pharma pay big otherwise.
And......this for a single indication which will not reach full potential revenue of only $3 billion by 2021.
Ok people....time to wake up and start buying and HOLDING!
Example of why $50 sp is cheap!
Amgen to Buy Onyx for $10.4 Billion to Gain Cancer Drug
By Drew Armstrong Aug 26, 2013 4:09 PM ET
Amgen Inc. (AMGN) agreed to buy Onyx Pharmaceuticals Inc. (ONXX) in a $10.4 billion transaction that gives Amgen access to a rapidly expanding cancer-drug market with a new product that offers sure revenue.
Amgen will pay $125 a share for Onyx’s outstanding stock, the companies said in a statement yesterday. Net of estimated Onyx cash, the deal is worth $9.7 billion. Onyx’s Kyprolis, approved last year for a rare blood cancer, may spur more than $3 billion in revenue by 2021, according to analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. South San Francisco-based Onyx is now studying the medicine in an expanded group of patients.
The accord mirrors recent deals in which drugmakers bought companies with one or two promising products, rather than attempting large mergers that come with whole pipelines or offer business synergies. Kyprolis fills a hole for Amgen in a product line that largely contains drugs to support rather than treat cancer patients, at a time when the oncology market is growing increasingly important as the U.S. population ages.
“It’s a steal for Amgen,” said Ori Hershkovitz, a partner at Sphera Funds Management Ltd., a Tel Aviv-based health-care hedge fund that holds both Onyx and Amgen shares. “It has secured its long-term growth. Securing your long-term growth for $10 billion, I think you made a good acquisition.”
Every investment dollar I have is in just this one stock. I did that over a year ago. I have no regrets and no worries. Once in a lifetime to you get an opportunity such as this. We hear about many but are never in the right place at the right time. But in this moment here we are.
Another couple of new posts in the news section on the blog
Big boys want your stock
They are trying every trick to shake your shares away. That flash crash tried to shake loose shares. If this thing goes to $3 for five days I think it goes to Nasdaq. They did there best to show a false top today to get you to think you could get some more on a pullback. But then it goes up after they get it from you. This thing is going higher and higher in my opinion.
RSI doesn't work for company with obviously good news coming. You just have to keep reading that 8k to see what was not said.
I am not selling a share until the end game. I will vote down any offer under $50.
Sometimes the difference between the rumor and the truth is just mere timing.
I happen to agree
Read the news section of the blog....very interesting.
I called and asked. Paperwork is done.
But it has to get to $3 for five days not $2. They don't meet the $2 for five day criteria I am told.
Big institution buying I believe.
I can't remember but I did see it long ago in a sec filing.
PVCT has a credit line of 30 million that they have never touched. Nor do they plan to.
I do not work for the FDA....I do not know the specific rules. I do know that mgt was dancing, drinking and going WooooooooooooHOOOOOOOOOO! Now that was very public indeed.
Again...your not seeing it. If I knew I would not tell. If I know, I cannot tell you that I do know. I can say mgt was extremely happy that night celebrating. Now why would they celebrate? If you cannot infer from that then you need to stick with shaking the magic 8-ball and seeing what answers it can give you.
Do you think I would be allowed to say if I knew? lol....
I give up....
What part of seeing mgt celebrate with champagne did you miss in my posts?
Why can't you see what the 8k is trying to tell you? Go to the blog and read that again as well. Officially they are not allowed to say....it's what they did not say that says everything.....can you get that?
Deals mean dollars.....millions....over 100 million I think just for the two regionals. What does that buy you? No dilution, stock buyback to reverse the dilution in the past, and leverage for end game.
I am 99.99999999999999999999999% confident there will be no dilution. But hey, who knows for certain? LOL.
There is a new shift in the status quo. We are all here to see it.
You are normally right. But world records in biotech are happening on this drug. The magic bullet spent years in the chamber for reasons....there was a strategy involved on protecting the drug. One was the synthesis patent had to come through and it did this year. Regional deals will happen very soon. The end game is here I assure you.
That trader with 30 years experience has no idea about this drug and what it can really do. But I get you. You and he have limited knowledge on it all. It would be better if you keep up with the blog as well as here. This is not an ordinary drug....it's the magic bullet everyone has been searching for. And big pharma will pay big for it. Look what Amgen paid for Onyx. 10.4 billion! And for what?
The only thing that would keep it from going higher is people like you who would gladly sell at $3. Sirius Radio was once at a nickle, Microsoft and Apple were once in a garage. If you think small then so will your portfolio reflect that.
I sell when management sells!!!
And not one moment sooner.
Good luck with that. There will be no dilution. Warrants were covered last week bringing in money. China and India deals pending that will bring in millions. But if you wish to wait to add.....then by all means do so.
Yup.....been trying to say that.
I cannot speak for the company but I would think not. A pharma would want the whole enchilada I would think.
You tell me...lol. What would the market do on a OA, AA or PIII?